Wishing our athletes good luck this weekend.
For Amelia and James in Croatia, and for Kailani, Katia/Harley, Kim/Tim at Nebelhorn.
Was doing some number crunching for the team event.
After calculating the points and doing some number projections, it has come clear that for Australia to make the team event, we will have to rely on both or either of these two scenarios happening.
Firstly (and the most critical), Israel not earning a qualification spot in Pairs. With France relinquishing their second pair spot, if Israel finishes in the top 5 (not 4) amongst the nations fighting for those final spots, I predict Israel will be locks for the team event. If Israel earns a pairs spot, they will have entries in 3 Individual Olympic events. Also, with strong results from Alexei Bychenko and Isabella/Ilia, they will easily earn more points on the grand prix than Australia, Korea, Czech Republic etc. We will have to rely on Sumire and Francis to overtake Paige and Evgeni in the free- they trail around 1.5 points behind after the SP). Also keep in mind that Israel is already ahead of Australia in Qualification Points.
Secondly, South Korea not earning a qualification spot in 2 of the 3 disciplines they are fighting for qualification spots in. As alluded to in other posts, South Korea will receive a "Host Country Place" in all the individual events they fail to qualify for through the normal qualification process (e.g. if South Korea failed to qualify any of the 30 spot in the mens event either worlds or Nebelhorn, they will create a 31st spot for South Korea). However, these host athletes can only compete in individual events. It is important to note that these host country places do not automatically constitute a team for the host country in the team event unless the host country qualifies for the Team event through the normal qualification process.
If South Korea qualifies 0-1 of the three disciplines through Nebelhorn [NOT a "Host Country Place"], they would not be able to meet the requirements for the team event, and Australia will be ok. However, if they do qualify spots in 2+ of the three disciplines through the Nebelhorn Trophy [NOT a host country place], they will meet the requirements for the team event. Also, I expect South Korea to earn a couple of hundred points through the grand prix. South Korea also has a slight lead over Australia in points.
If both situations come true, Australia will be first reserve for the team event again
If 1 of the 2 situations happens, we have a chance,
If none of the situations happen, Australia will be in the clear.
This is of course if Kailani, and Katia/Harley qualify a spot.