2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[klutzy]

Actually, Karen's PB is 199, so Ashley is the only US lady with a PB higher than Polina's. But otherwise, I agree.

Wait actually, I just checked and Polina's official ISU PB is 187. Are you using domestic numbers/senior B numbers?

Yes. I'm using numbers from Nationals as well as international--not a good measure of how our ladies do internationally, but valid when talking about Nationals. Polina's best score was at 2016 Nationals. Karen Chen got a 214 there in 2017.

Since Bradie Tennell's the only one who's broken the 200 mark this year internationally, I don't see her getting bumped. Realistically, she skates anywhere near how she's been skating at Nationals and she'll blow past Polina's PB.

I know Mirai's a fan favorite, but she's going to need to perform to get on the team, I don't see her as a sure thing at all. I don't think the judges, at this point, will give her the benefit of the doubt.

 

[MarinHondas]

If we were counting only last year, then of course Mariah would be at a higher level than Courtney. But the ranking in my post was based on last year PLUS the first half of this year. And imo Mariah isn't ahead of Courtney when more recent results are considered.

As noted several times elsewhere, the SC scores for all ladies (except Osmond) were quite low compared to other GPs. It's notable that Courtney was 12 points higher than Karen there and only 1.4 off the podium.

Even when counting first half of this year and last year Mariah is well ahead of Courtney. I’m not sure whether your a big fan of hers and can’t see that or what? I agree with angelicaamatina here. And as previously stated, Courtney’s personal BEST is 183. It’s not the judges fault she didn’t score higher at SC bc 182 isn’t a bad score for her. Considering all of Courtney’s scores this year, (much better to use scores instead of placements. Different competitions have different levels of competitors, Mariah had much hard competition at both her Grand Prixs) she has 164 and 182 internationally this year. Mariah has 189 and 166. Then if we add in Mariah’s results from last year I think it’s pretty clear Mariah is ahead of Courtney. Mariah’s scores from this year are higher than Courtney’s and her season last year is incomparable to Courtney’s.

 

[Moxiejan]

Even when counting first half of this year and last year Mariah is well ahead of Courtney. I’m not sure whether your a big fan of hers and can’t see that or what?

These were "my rankings" that I had posted; note that I did not place Courtney ahead of Mariah. In a later post, I said that based only on last year, I would have had Mariah far ahead of Courtney. But I feel that based on also including the first half of this year, they now are much closer:

Bradie/Ashley
Karen/Mirai
Mariah/Courtney
Angela/Polina/Caroline/Amber/Starr/Emmy

This year, Mariah was 6th at Rostelcom, 9th at NHK and 5th at U.S. Classic.
Courtney was 4th at SC, 3rd at Warsaw & 4th in two summer internationals.

Yes, their best/worst scores were close. But for Mariah, this represents a downturn from last year; for Courtney, it's an upswing.
So I also used "momentum" as a factor in moving Courtney to about equal to Mariah, speaking only in terms of making this year's team and not as an assessment of actual skating skill.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yes, their best/worst scores were close. But for Mariah, this represents a downturn from last year; for Courtney, it's an upswing.
So I also used "momentum" as a factor in moving Courtney to about equal to Mariah, speaking only in terms of making this year's team and not as an assessment of actual skating skill.

My biggest worry for Courtney is that the 3/3 that she does in the SP and LP isn't consistent at all. I honestly can't see her landing two 3F-3Lo combinations, with enough other clean jumps to close the PCS gap she has to against the other top skaters. For someone who relies on technical performance, Courtney has trouble with landings too frequently. She often fails to check her jumps or has scratchy landings that negatively impact her PCS, which would otherwise be higher given her difficult entrances and tremendous height. On talent alone she will be in the mix, but a lot of things would have to go right for her (and wrong for a few others) for Courtney to make the team.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Just to put things into perspective:
A Russian girl who doesn't have more than a slim chance at the European team and was a host pick for a GP (Valeriia Mikhailova) has a higher SB than Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, Courtney Hicks, Angela Wang, Caroline Zhang, etc.
I hope our ladies really step things up at Nationals...

 

[Mathman]

I hope our ladies really step things up at Nationals...

Michelle's ready

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc22rhhjqVK/?hl=en&taken-by=michellewkwan

 

[icebird]

Come back Michelle!!!

 

[klutzy]

Just to put things into perspective:
A Russian girl who doesn't have more than a slim chance at the European team and was a host pick for a GP (Valeriia Mikhailova) has a higher SB than Ashley Wagner, Karen Chen, Courtney Hicks, Angela Wang, Caroline Zhang, etc.
I hope our ladies really step things up at Nationals...

Which is exactly why I think, unless she implodes, Bradie's the surest best for the US team. She's the only one with competitive scores this year.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Which is exactly why I think, unless she implodes, Bradie's the surest best for the US team. She's the only one with competitive scores this year.

I kind of like that I haven't seen her in any of the event promos and commercials that I've come across. I think the USFSA is smart to guard her from the attention, which would add more pressure for an athlete with little experience coming into an event as one of the title favorites. Plus, it allows for the Cinderella narrative we all love: who would have ever guessed this Bradie girl could have won the title (besides everyone on GS forums)?

 

[stella luna]

I kind of like that I haven't seen her in any of the event promos and commercials that I've come across. I think the USFSA is smart to guard her from the attention, which would add more pressure for an athlete with little experience coming into an event as one of the title favorites. Plus, it allows for the Cinderella narrative we all love: who would have ever guessed this Bradie girl could have won the title (besides everyone on GS forums)?

And ... bragging rights, for being in the know.

 

[temadd]

Hey, ik his seems random, but what happened to Tyler Pierce? I really liked her when I first saw her in 2015, and after 2016, I thought she could have been in contention for one of these spots... by now she’s not even at nationals...

She got injured at the beginning of the 16-17 season and never returned. I'm not sure why.

 

[Moxiejan]

Come back Michelle!!!

And bring back the spiral sequence to the SP! With no "assists" from holding/pulling the free leg allowed!

Or, to provide more variety/creativity, make it a MIF sequence (for both men & women) with spread eagles, bauers, cantilevers, etc. If there's not enough time, cut the step sequence in half; it takes WAY too much time in the program relative to points awarded.

 

[Globetrotter]

And bring back the spiral sequence to the SP! With no "assists" from holding/pulling the free leg allowed!

Or, to provide more variety/creativity, make it a MIF sequence (for both men & women) with spread eagles, bauers, cantilevers, etc. If there's not enough time, cut the step sequence in half; it takes WAY too much time in the program relative to points awarded.

There is no mandated time for step sequence. It only looks long because most skaters, especially ladies, do not have the basic SS to eek out a level 4 StSq in short time. If I have my way, the StSq should be limited to 30s max and let’s see who can hit level 4. None of the US girls certainly since SS has conventionally not been a strong suit of US ladies after MKwan.

 

[mrrice]

Michelle's ready

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bc22rhhjqVK/?hl=en&taken-by=michellewkwan

Wow!!! She's still got it.....Beautiful!!

 

[R.D.]

Which is exactly why I think, unless she implodes, Bradie's the surest best for the US team. She's the only one with competitive scores this year.

Should she happen to really knock it out of the park at Nationals...think she might get Inflation Supreme? :think:

 

[mrrice]

Should she happen to really knock it out of the park at Nationals...think she might get Inflation Supreme? :think:

After her medal at Skate America, she deserves it. She's the Lady who did well at her home country GP and has the most momentum heading in to San Jose.

 

[TontoK]

Should she happen to really knock it out of the park at Nationals...think she might get Inflation Supreme? :think:

Would she get a PCS bump? I'd assume so, if she's US champion. With recent years' disappointments, the bloom is fading on that rose... but it's still a rose.

It means something to be the American Ladies Champion.

 

[musicfan80]

Come back Michelle!!!

I would LOVE to see her come back for charity shows!

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Less than 2 weeks till the ladies sp!!!!!! Is there a predictions thread for this?

 

[mrrice]

Less than 2 weeks till the ladies sp!!!!!! Is there a predictions thread for this?

I haven't seen one but, if there was a thread, this is how my prediction list would look. Bradie and.....