2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[bevybean]

I think USFS needs to go with the podium at Nats. None of the ladies have a strong enough body of work to warrant bumping someone who made the podium. Each has good and bad from this season and last.

 

[kalee]

1. No.
2. No.
3. No.

I really think the USFSA is in a corner right now. After JSF has "fair and square" chosen Kaori and Satoko, doing anymore 2014 shenanigans will just look bad. And, they already saw what comes out of it. Unless a total dark horse gets 3rd (such as Tennell or Bell) and Mirai or Ashley are 4th, I do NOT see 2014 repeating.

Not even sure that Bradie or Mariah are enough of a dark horse for that. Courtney / Angela / Starr getting 3rd, definitely though.

 

[MarinHondas]

Honestly, where we're at in the sport, barely breaking 200 isn't impressive anymore. We will likely see the entire Olympic podium go above 220-225, with a slight chance of all three medalists going 230+ (in a world where, say, Med/Zag/Osmond all nail both programs, which won't happen).

Even a 210 might not crack T8 depending on how people skate.

Honestly, USFS should be weighing recent competitions more heavily than more prestigious older ones. Ashley, for instance, is nowhere near her 2016 abilities yet, and Karen benefited from a confluence of horrific events (russian and japanese girls bombing) at Helsinki that is unlikely to happen again.

I can't imagine how pissed NBC producers are right now, knowing that no U.S. lady is likely to be in the final group (and there may even be some in the 2nd flight) and that they'll have to show more than an hour of condensed skating in primetime.

In your scenario everyone goes 100% clean except the US ladies basically. It’s possible but also entirely possible that that doesn’t happen as well. Maria has been super consistent at all her events this season but she unraveled a BIT at Russian nats and last year that seemed to continue to happen throughout the last half of the season. How she skates at Euros will be telling. Alina has not skated the short perfectly clean at all this season. Her last two skates have been close but not quite. If she does a cup of China or France short at the Olympics she won’t find herself in the final flight heading in to the long. Evgenia hasn’t competed in a while but she’s still a sure bet for the final group. Kaori has been great but is new to the scene. She hasn’t even been to a worlds. Anything can happen with her. If there’s a strict caller Satoko won’t be in the mix for a medal either. Kaetlyn is hot and cold. I believe kaetlyn is almost a sure thing for the final flight though bc of her stellar short, barring complete implosion. (whether kaetlyn can hang on for a medal is another issue entirely. She has never skated a clean long program in the last two seasons) Gabby could be a factor but she’s just as big a question mark as the Americans at this point. So, yes. Russia Japan and Canada are sending strong teams but they don’t all have a team full of Evgenia’s. Helsinki proved anything can happen and so did this GP season. There were Gp’s were everyone was on fire and Gp’s were everyone was completely off. If the Olympics are the first, the Americans have a slim chance to make the final group(but still a chance. If they are on fire with everyone else I would bet they could), if the Olympics are the latter it’s entirely possible. I don’t think we should expect any American lady to be in the final group but I also don’t think we should give up all hope and rule it out entirely.

 

[chuckm]

To be in the final group for the FS, a skater is going to need a short program score at the very least in the 70s. Not one US lady has achieved that in the GP this year. You can't count any US Nationals SP scores, because those are bound to be inflated.

 

[TontoK]

To be in the final group for the FS, a skater is going to need a short program score at the very least in the 70s. Not one US lady has achieved that in the GP this year. You can't count any US Nationals SP scores, because those are bound to be inflated.

I think I made this point before, but re-upping it anyway:

Numbers aside, to make the final group, an American woman would have to beat at least two of the following in the SP: 3 Russians, 2 Japanese, Osmond, and Kostner. If you consider Daleman (and I still think she can get her act together) then she'll need to beat three.

Is that an impossible task? No. Is it a daunting task? Yep.

 

[Mrs. P]

So unless I missed it, does anyone find it strange that Mariah Bell was not scheduled in the teleconference call (I'm assuming they're done, since U.S. Nationals has started)? They interviewed four men (Nathan, Vincent, Jason and Adam), but only Karen, Ashley and Mirai....

And Mariah is the reigning bronze medalist.

Maybe the calls aren't over yet.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Don’t get me worked up right now Mrs P

I want Mariah on that podium

 

[SnowWhite]

I wanted to look at the SP scores from some of the ladies who will be at the Olympics, so here are SP season's bests and average scores, even though comparing scores across comps isn't perfect, etc.

Seasons Best
1 80.75 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS
2 77.04 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN
3 76.27 Alina ZAGITOVA RUS
4 74.62 Carolina KOSTNER ITA
5 74.61 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN
7 74.00 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS

10 70.65 Gabrielle DALEMAN CAN
13 69.40 Kaori SAKAMOTO JPN
19 67.01 Bradie TENNELL USA
27 66.18 Karen CHEN USA
31 65.17 Mirai NAGASU USA
34 64.12 Ashley WAGNER USA

35 64.06 Courtney HICKS USA
36 63.92 Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA KAZ
38 63.85 Mariah BELL USA
41 62.54 Angela WANG USA

Average Scores
- Evgenia — 80.25
- Kaetlyn — 74.34
- Carolina — 73.42
- Satoko — 70.13
- Alina — 69.87
- Maria — 68.90

- Gabrielle — 66.48
- Bradie — 65.68
- Kaori — 65.03
- Ashley — 62.85
- Angela — 62.52
- Karen — 62.48

- Mirai — 61.71
- Elizabet — 60.86
- Courtney — 60.75
- Mariah — 60.59

Obviously the averages doesn't take into account trends up or down, head to heads, or anything, but I think tha mostly matters for comparing the top ladies to each other, and less so for comparing them to the US ladies. But for example, Alina's SP scores have been trending up, and several of their averages are brought down by a rough first event of the season. That's worth noting when comparing Gabby and Kaori to Bradie. They both beat Bradie in the SP at SA, and had similar scores between both GPs, with their CS event being much lower. Gabby's GP average is 69.37 and Kaori's is 69.14, so still within range for Bradie, but maybe a little more ahead than they work just from the average.

Of course, lots of ladies would look better with their worst result thrown out, but I noticed it especially with those two since the other results were consistent with each other, and because the bad result was the first one of the season - Kaori's big first senior comp and Gabby's first back after abdominal surgery this summer. Still, I only went into detail on them because they were so close to Bradie. For the sake of fairness, Mirai is the other lady with one result obviously lower than the other two, though her low event is CoR, which I find a little harder to discount than an event right at the beginning of the season. Still, without that, her SP average is 64.76.

So overall, Bradie is the closest to making the final group, but she'd be competing with Kaori and Gabby even if there is an opening because one of those top six girls doesn't deliver. Ashley might also be able to get there, if she comes out really strong. I could totally see all three US ladies ending up in the 2nd group.

I think if one of them is going to sneak into the top six, Maria is the one that they'd most likely bump. Evgenia always scores super high, and I think if the lack of training time due to injury impacts her, it's more likely to be in the FS (and even if she makes a mistake in the SP, she's got the PCs so of course she'll still be right up there). Carolina could fall apart if she goes for harder jumps, but she SP has been scoring well all season and her PCs are sky high. Kaetlyn tends to deliver the SP really well. Alina has been making mistakes in it, but her BV is very high and she's now getting strong PCs too, so I see her staying top six (and it was much better at GPF). Satoko tends to be pretty consistent, and her SP scored well at both SA and the GPF, and it was good at Nationals too. If the tech caller is strict that could hurt her, but it would also be bad for Ashley and maybe Mirai and Maria. Maria scored a lot higher at the GPF than at her previous events, and her PCs were higher (IIRC), but before that she was in the 67 range. Also her FS at Nats was rough and last season she was super solid on the GP then started struggling in the second half of the season. But I think if the top six ladies deliver that will be the final group.

 

[tars]

4. What placement does each lady need to guarantee herself a spot?

My answers:

4. Bradie: 1 or 2
Mirai: 1 or 2
Ashley: 1, 2, or 3
Karen: 1

:shocked:

I don't drink coffee anymore, just read how US fans in this thread treat their greatest fs talent and the reigning national champion and my blood pressure rises right away. If you don't send this amazing girl to the Olympics, you'll regret it.

Like what's with this consistency, scores and placement obsession? It's important, but when you watch clean, best skates of Ashley, Mirai, Bradie, Mariah and Karen one after another - can't you see Karen Chen is the most talented of them by far? She's natural, beautiful skater in her prime(!) with phenomenal artistry, grace, elegance and good height on her jumps. Plus yeah, she's reigning national champion and person who won 3 Olympic spots for America, no big deal...

Now you intend to leave her at home with nationals silver medal? Why're you doing this to yourselves?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NixhPhyYW4w

 

[ice coverage]

So unless I missed it, does anyone find it strange that Mariah Bell was not scheduled in the teleconference call (I'm assuming they're done, since U.S. Nationals has started)? They interviewed four men (Nathan, Vincent, Jason and Adam), but only Karen, Ashley and Mirai....

And Mariah is the reigning bronze medalist.

Maybe the calls aren't over yet.

Do you think it could be at least partially a numbers (overall numbers) thing, Mrs. P?

Looking back, I think there were eleven media calls before 2017 Nats?

- Mirai, Ashley, Gracie
- Nathan, Jason, Adam
- Hubbell/Donohue; Shibs; Chock/Bates
- Haven/Brandon; Tarah/Danny​

AFAIK, no 2017 call with Max (2016 silver medalist).

Twelve media calls before 2018 Nats have been held (AFAIK):

- Mirai, Ashley, Karen
- Nathan, Vincent, Jason, Adam
- H/D; Shibs; C/B
- Haven/Brandon; Knierims​

Mariah's would be #13, if it happens.

---

It is Ok to have your favorites but why do people constantly want to elevate Mirai to more than what she has accomplished. ... We all have our favorites but that should not prevent you from wanting every one to do well.

My two cents in response:

It is OK to have non-favorites, but why do people constantly want to diminish Mirai to less than what she has accomplished?

We all have our non-favorites, but that should not prevent us from wanting everyone to do well.​

 

[concorde]

Given all the press Ashley has generated and how much NBC has invested in her, my guess is USFS has basically no choice but to include Ashley on the Olympic team.

My guess is the Olympic team will be Bradie (most consistent lady, will finish #1), Karen (the girl skates her best under pressure, will finish #2), and Ashley (due to all the publicity, will finish #3).

Having said that, I can see the World team will being Bradie, Karen, and Mirai.

 

[mrrice]

Given all the press Ashley has generated and how much NBC has invested in her, my guess is USFS has basically no choice but to include Ashley on the Olympic team.

My guess is the Olympic team will be Bradie (most consistent lady, will finish #1), Karen (the girl skates her best under pressure, will finish #2), and Ashley (due to all the publicity, will finish #3).

Having said that, I can see the World team will being Bradie, Karen, and Mirai.

I agree....let's hope she skates great and we don't have another 2014 on our hands. Poor Polina Edmunds who is usually the face of ladies figure skating for commercials here in Central, Ca. I have only seen Ashley and Nathan Chen on TV. I understand Nathan but, I'm surprised that Karen is not the face they're using as nationals approaches.

 

[b-man]

I agree....let's hope she skates great and we don't have another 2014 on our hands. Poor Polina Edmunds who is usually the face of ladies figure skating for commercials here in Central, Ca. I have only seen Ashley and Nathan Chen on TV. I understand Nathan but, I'm surprised that Karen is not the face they're using as nationals approaches.

I believe I have seen Karen, along with Ashley and Nathan. However, haven't seen Mirai or Bradie.

 

[mrrice]

I believe I have seen Karen, along with Ashley and Nathan. However, haven't seen Mirai or Bradie.

I thought they'd really try to get Bradie some air time after her showing at Skate America....I haven't seen or heard her name on any of the commercials.

 

[formersk8ter]

can't you see Karen Chen is the most talented of them by far?

Not so far this season. But there's not anything to get excited about these days, regarding any of the US ladies.

 

[mrrice]

Not so far this season. But there's not anything to get excited about these days, regarding any of the US ladies.

I agree....As talented as Karen might be, she's not the best competitor. If there's one thing our ladies and their coaches need to improve, it's the way our skaters handle pressure.

 

[truthbooth]

I agree....As talented as Karen might be, she's not the best competitor. If there's one thing our ladies and their coaches need to improve, it's the way our skaters handle pressure.

Yes, I agree. Many of the current American ladies struggle to cope with their nerves in competition.

Karen, in particular, is a very naturally talented skater and I think she does have potential to stand on world podiums, but she is wildly inconsistent right now. She hasn't been able to capitalize on her momentum from being US Champion and #4 in the world. I hope she makes it to Pyeongchang, but no matter what, I think she should consider a different coaching team to begin the next quad.

 

[Barb]

I think is a good thing for Karen that people have low expectations on her.

 

[b-man]

I agree....As talented as Karen might be, she's not the best competitor. If there's one thing our ladies and their coaches need to improve, it's the way our skaters handle pressure.

I believe Karen's problems may be more with technique than with pressure. I watched her a lot at practices in Kansas City, and she had a lot of problems with the back half of her 3-3 in practice. Yet later in the week in competition with the pressure really on, she was nailing her combinations. In the lower pressure 4 continents, she was not good, yet at worlds with 3 spots on the line and a lot of pressure, she was terrific.

 

[AshWagsFan]

USFS youtube channel just posted a video on Karen Chen approaching nationals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfugDj4Rg3E
Also in this article it states that Ashley has been practising well so I have high hopes for her at Nationals!

Yay! Only problem with Ash:no matter how well she is training (she allegedly was practicing very well in Helsinki) if she freezes up under pressure, it’s over. PLEASE DONT DO THAT ASHLEY!