2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating | Page 121 | Golden Skate

2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

*If* Alysa can pull off clean programs with multiple 3A, etc - I am not sure they will hold down her scores.

It’s also not a given the others will skate clean - Bradie has been dealing with back pain this season, and the others are not super consistent.
 
I know USFS would never do this, but I seriously think they should send the National Champion to Worlds and let the next two ladies battle it out at Four Continents. It's a US-based Four Continents so this would be the perfect time to try this sort of strategy.
 
It would be dumb if USFSA is going to hold Alysa down so she can not win. She’s a star. None of the current US ladies are stars. Not Bradie, not Karen, not Mariah. They would be smart to let 13 year old win and get people interested in US figure skating.
 
We're not saying that Alysa won't win nationals. But based on history its extremely unlikely. I have to say this again. In 2016, Nathan Chen landed four clean quads when barely anyone else was landing one. The winner fell and underrotated on his only quad. It doesn't matter if you have the tech unless you have the results to back it up. Alysa commonly underrotated her 3A. People are talking like she's been landing 4Lz for years when she's only attempted one and fell on it. I think people are getting way too ahead of themselves and ignoring that TPTB tend to ignore skaters unless they earn it. Just look at the next year with Nathan. When he came into nationals he had the highest FS men's score in US history and highest combined and was the first man to win a GPF medal since 2009. After that his scores sky rocketed at nationals. Even he said before nationals, it would be better this time because he wasn't coming in as a nobody.

Gracie didn't win nationals in 2013, even though the judges had ever reason to let her win. She had to earn it first. Once she had a good placement at Worlds and Frank, that was all she what she needed. This happens over and over.

In 2013, Gracie also bombed her SP, though.
I don't think Alysa will win if Bradie is clean but I also wouldn't be surprised if she did win.
 
It would be dumb if USFSA is going to hold Alysa down so she can not win. She’s a star. None of the current US ladies are stars. Not Bradie, not Karen, not Mariah. They would be smart to let 13 year old win and get people interested in US figure skating.
She may be a star but she has a lot of developing to do and I would rather USFSA allows her to develop in SS and PE more before throwing her into the title of national champion.
 
IMO, it isn't smart at all to let a 13-year-old win to "get people interested in US figure skating". The last thing a 13-year-old needs is more hype than she is getting right now. Alysa hasn't through puberty yet---there's no guarantee she will be able to do the jumps she has now after puberty and growth. Then the hype will turn to criticism and worse.
 
In 2013, Gracie also bombed her SP, though.
I don't think Alysa will win if Bradie is clean but I also wouldn't be surprised if she did win.

And Ashley bombed her FS. She fell on her Lutz and Loop and didn’t have her 2A in +seq with her Loop. The differenece between Gracie TES and Ashley’s TES was massive. 71 vs. 57. What kept Ashley from losing was the PCS scores. If they just have Gracie a small boost, she would’ve won.
 
She may be a star but she has a lot of developing to do and I would rather USFSA allows her to develop in SS and PE more before throwing her into the title of national champion.

I agree. To me, she skates like a Junior. She doesn't have anywhere near the speed of Bradie or Mariah Bell. Give her time to develop and grow into her body.
 
It would be dumb if USFSA is going to hold Alysa down so she can not win. She’s a star. None of the current US ladies are stars. Not Bradie, not Karen, not Mariah. They would be smart to let 13 year old win and get people interested in US figure skating.

It would be smart for USFS to hold ALysa down because she is a star. If she loses, she’ll learn to fix her problems. If she wins, Her team will get complacent and let those problems stay. It’s happened countless times in the past. Honestly, it worked out well for Nathan. He lost with four quads and just learned even harder quads. No need to anoint her when she hasn’t even faced off against a Eteri lady in competition.

Everyone anointed Stephan Gogolev before he ever took International ice. Suddenly when he was in front of a huge home crowd just to see him after his federation had hyped to high heaven, he fizzled. Personally, I find historically that young skaters become better competitors when they have to prove themselves. Michelle could’ve medaled in Worlds in 1995. Because she didn’t, it forced her upgrade herself artistically. No one can say she wasn’t phenomenally better the next year. However, when the feds hype them the opposite happens.

But that’s not the reason why Alysa won’t win. She just doesn’t have the reputation to over come Bradie’s. Her BV just isn’t big enough to over come Bradie’s large PCS advantage.
 
… (Little fun fact: she also already has gotten sponsorships and ads. She's an Under Armour ambassador. Here's her commercial- https://twitter.com/AudreyShin4/status/1048059614221164544 )

Wow, how exciting for Audrey. :cool:

Great news that Under Armour chose her as an ambassador. :yay: Thanks for bringing it to my attention.


… In 2016, Nathan Chen landed four clean quads when barely anyone else was landing one. …

... I think people are getting way too ahead of themselves …

I understand what you are saying about getting way too ahead with expectations for Alysa.
That said, I am very curious as to how things will shake down at Nats.

[Side note: I can't help mentioning that Max had two quads in his FS. (Plus one in his SP.) But otherwise, I take your point re Nathan.]
 
Wow, how exciting for Audrey. :cool:

Great news that Under Armour chose her as an ambassador. :yay: Thanks for bringing it to my attention.




I understand what you are saying about getting way too ahead with expectations for Alysa.
That said, I am very curious as to how things will shake down at Nats.

[Side note: I can't help mentioning that Max had two quads in his FS. (Plus one in his SP.) But otherwise, I take your point re Nathan.]

I only mention Nathan to show how even an evelated BV from four quads couldn’t get him a win in 2016. If they want to hold her down or boost Bradie, they will.
 
Suppose the judges judge exactly the way they're supposed to:

They score the GOEs for each element based on the qualities of the elements as performed, and they score each program component based on their evaluation of each skater's performance in each area according to the same range of scores and expectations of quality they use throughout.

If they think a more mature or more experienced skater showed much better skating skills, performance quality, musical interpretation, etc., in her program they'll give her much higher PCS because they thing that performance deserved those scores.

And if someone else had a more difficult or a cleaner program with much higher TES, then the results may work out to whether the PCS outweigh the TES or vice versa. However, unlike under 6.0, the judges do not have control over most of the TES and they're not choosing how to rank the skaters. If they score skater A higher on PCS because they think she deserves it, and they score skater B with the high TES with more modest PCS because that's what they think that performance deserved, then maybe A will win and maybe B will win. It depends how much better the judges thought A's skating and performance qualities were, and how much higher B's base value was.

If the system is working the way it should, then either result is possible based on the specifics of what each skater does and how each judge evaluates them. If A wins, we could say that her actual PCS skills held her up. If B wins, we could say that her technical content held her up. There's no need to attribute to intentional manipulation by judges results that could just as easily happen by honest judging and honest separation of the GOEs and PCS from the base values.
 
IMO, it isn't smart at all to let a 13-year-old win ...

That is my whole problem with this discussion. It is not right for the USFSA to debate whether or not they should "allow" someone to win a competition, or whether they should "prevent" it.

Hold the competition. Judge fairly according to the rules. Whoever wins, wins. :yes:
 
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Nationals will be fun. It's Bradie's title to lose. A junior with higher technical abilities than everyone there. Gracie coming back from a season off. Karen coming back from an injury and disappointing Olympics outing. Mariah with momentum on her side (as of right now). Only two worlds spots. The drama of it all should be fun and hopefully will push everyone to be their best.
 
Suppose the judges judge exactly the way they're supposed to:

They score the GOEs for each element based on the qualities of the elements as performed, and they score each program component based on their evaluation of each skater's performance in each area according to the same range of scores and expectations of quality they use throughout.

If they think a more mature or more experienced skater showed much better skating skills, performance quality, musical interpretation, etc., in her program they'll give her much higher PCS because they thing that performance deserved those scores.

And if someone else had a more difficult or a cleaner program with much higher TES, then the results may work out to whether the PCS outweigh the TES or vice versa. However, unlike under 6.0, the judges do not have control over most of the TES and they're not choosing how to rank the skaters. If they score skater A higher on PCS because they think she deserves it, and they score skater B with the high TES with more modest PCS because that's what they think that performance deserved, then maybe A will win and maybe B will win. It depends how much better the judges thought A's skating and performance qualities were, and how much higher B's base value was.

If the system is working the way it should, then either result is possible based on the specifics of what each skater does and how each judge evaluates them. If A wins, we could say that her actual PCS skills held her up. If B wins, we could say that her technical content held her up. There's no need to attribute to intentional manipulation by judges results that could just as easily happen by honest judging and honest separation of the GOEs and PCS from the base values.
:rofl:

When have the judges ever judged like they were supposed to? They manipulated the system in 6.0 and found ways to do the and in IJS. It’s ridiculous. I stopped trying to judge by their actual performances and started to figure out the patterns when skaters would get the boost. It makes things far less predictable, it at least I know what’s happening up front. For example, I know last year that based on the season performances, Bradie would win, Mirai would most likely come in second and Karen and Ashley would fight for 3rd. Mariah, would be the backup in fifth. Angela I was expecting to be sixth and I kinda over estimated Courtney in 7th. I often take notes win I make predictions about scores and forgot able th ones I made for nationals until I found them his summer. I predicted two months before nationals that Mirai would get a score of 214 and Ashley and Karen would get scores around 200. (I made this prediction before Skate America, so no score for Bradie.) The actual scores Mirai got 213.84, Karen 198.59 and Ashley 196.19. Not too far off huh?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m angry that I could predict the scores that closely because I decided to apply the same pattern of inflation they’ve done time after time. But now I’m so over it. They’ll learn when it finally blows up in their faces.
 
That is my whole problem with this discussion. It is not right for the USFSA to debate whether or not they should "allow" someone to win a competition, or whether they should "prevent" it.

Hold the competition. Judge fairly according to the rules. Whoever wins, wins. :yes:

Fair judging according to the rules?? But this is figure skating! ;)
 
I don't really see it as fixing or rigging. Kimmie Meissner skated really, really badly in 2008. (At least I assume so.....anyone know where to find the protocols? I'd actually be interested to see how that scoring shook out. It was a wild year.)

https://www.usfigureskating.org/content/events/200708/uschamps/protocols/seniorladies-protocols.pdf

Kimmie fell three times in the long program, on her triple flip, her triple Lutz and her triple Lutz combo. PCS were only 6.85.

Even though Kimmie had won Nationals the year before (barely, over a fine effort by Emily Hughes) and had also won Four Continents and made a respectable showing on the Grand Prix, still by the time of 2008 Nationals the bloom was starting to fade a little and she couldn't count on a scoring boost based on reputation or past performances.
 
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I think last years nationals should show us that us fed will do what they want to get the results they want. Past scores, their own rules of doing things, how a skater performed that season-all can be tossed out the window if it’s not in line with the results they desire.
 
I'm saying it right now: I would not be shocked if Alysa wins nationals in January.

People are saying there's no way and definitely won't happen...

All I'm saying there is most definitely a way and it very well might.

Alysa would need help, particularly from Bradie. Karen, Mariah, and everyone else are unlikely to get all their triples landed and rotated so I don't think their PCS advantage would overcome the TES of a clean Alysa. I think Bradie will have her jumps sorted out by Nationals, possibly scrapping the lutz-loop combo if it's continuing to get < or <<. I'd hate to see a situation in which Alysa is undeservedly held back because they don't want to tarnish the reputation of the National champ being sent to Worlds. Alena Leonova did fine at Worlds (4th and 2nd) after twice finishing behind age-ineligible Adelina Sotnikova, so I don't think having a National champion who can't go to Worlds is a problem.
 
I think last years nationals should show us that us fed will do what they want to get the results they want. Past scores, their own rules of doing things, how a skater performed that season-all can be tossed out the window if it’s not in line with the results they desire.

I think I would say, "past scores and how a skater performed that season should all be tossed out the window." Whoever skates the best at 2019 U.S. Nationals should be the winner of 2019 U.S. Nationals.

Now, if the federation wants to take other factors into consideration in selecting the World Team, that's a different question.
 
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