2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[Metis]

Not to get off topic but I recall team Kwan strategy was to keep things simple and gain points based on the cleanness of the positions and elements. Because it was the beginning of her injury woes her base value wasn't as high as Irina's or Sasha's but they seem to be under the impression that she could get high goe anyway if she was really clean and neat. Of course it totally backfired when shaky spirals and sloppy traveling spins by Irina and Sasha still scored higher then the more secure and cleaner spirals and spins by Michelle simply because of the higher base. It was first first, and turns out only, competition under COP so obviously she didn't know what to expect and wasn't ready.

I mean, that was the promise of CoP... and here we are over a decade later. [emoji23]

(I Photoshopped all my memories of the early years of CoP into a blurry stew worthy of teenage Instagram. That was a time to be alive, a-yep.)

 

[Tavi...]

With Ting, if she is the second highest scoring senior eligible lady and Mariah has a similar score as her, they'll go with Mariah just like they went with Jason over Vincent. USFS prefers to send the person with more experience when there are slots on the line. Ting hasn't been consistent this season, though she's shows remarkable potential. That could change if she clean or near clean at Tallin and scores around 195 and Mariah scores lower than that at Golden Spin.

There's also Karen, but historically it takes several months to come back from injury.

The good news for Ting, even if she doesn't get go to Worlds they will send her to 4CC in the US. I think the podium is out of the question with Bradie, Rika, Satoko, (3rd Japanese girl who's bound to be really good!), Yelim and Eunsoo. But it will give her valuable points that will put her higher in the rankings at Junior Worlds.

Huh.... I think I wanna go to 4CC now.

Not sure I agree with the Vincent/ Jason parallel here. At 2017 Worlds, Olympic spots were on the line. That’s not the case here because it’s the beginning of the quad, so the pressure’s a bit less to get 3 spots. As long as the two women they send are reasonably likely to maintain two spots, USFS may be a bit more willing to experiment this year. Or not, I dunno.

ETA and on another note, beautiful picture of Gracie and Carly:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bqdiy8HHx9r/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=t6uhfm3mwf1g

 

[frida80]

Not sure I agree with the Vincent/ Jason parallel here. At 2017 Worlds, Olympic spots were on the line. That’s not the case here because it’s the beginning of the quad, so the pressure’s a bit less to get 3 spots. As long as the two women they send are reasonably likely to maintain two spots, USFS may be a bit more willing to experiment this year. Or not, I dunno.

ETA and on another note, beautiful picture of Gracie and Carly:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bqdiy8HHx9r/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=t6uhfm3mwf1g

The did it before in 2014 with Max and Jason when spots were on the line. I think if They believe Mariah is score better at worlds they’ll send her over Ting.

 

[andromache]

Not sure I agree with the Vincent/ Jason parallel here. At 2017 Worlds, Olympic spots were on the line. That’s not the case here because it’s the beginning of the quad, so the pressure’s a bit less to get 3 spots. As long as the two women they send are reasonably likely to maintain two spots, USFS may be a bit more willing to experiment this year. Or not, I dunno.

ETA and on another note, beautiful picture of Gracie and Carly:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bqdiy8HHx9r/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=t6uhfm3mwf1g

While Olympic spots are more important than Worlds spots - I think Worlds spots are considered pretty important too. That said, our ladies seem unlikely get them back this season anyway so USFS might be like .

Even if Bradie and Mariah are on track to peak at Worlds (assuming those two ladies go to Worlds at all), the competition is going to be crazier than ever. Russian and Japanese ladies have more depth than ever. Plus.....everybody else.

It will take a very formidable team and/or a LOT of mistakes from others to get the 3 spots this year...or anytime in the future.

ETA: Ting is senior eligible but I think she would better off at Junior Worlds due to her experience level. She seems to be a nervous competitor.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The did it before in 2014 with Max and Jason when spots were on the line. I think if They believe Mariah is score better at worlds they’ll send her over Ting.

I hope they send whichever are the top two finishers. Realistically, no combination of two US women will get us three spots next year.

 

[mrrice]

I "told" her (through Twitter) the following: 1. I love you. 2. Hope to see you at Nationals IF that's what YOU want and 3. You could never disappoint me. I know, I'm crazy.

You're not crazy. I loved Maria Butyrskaya from day 1, until the end of her competitive career. Remember her disappointment of not getting out of qualifying at Worlds in 2002. Maybe Gracie will follow in her footsteps and go into coaching. She had spectacular technique during 2016 and she is still looked up to by everyone I know. To young skaters, I bet her Lutz/Toe is still played on the DVR.

 

[mrrice]

I hope they send whichever are the top two finishers. Realistically, no combination of two US women will get us three spots next year.

Realistically, I have Bradie finishing 7th and our next skater eeking out a spot in the top 10. I think we might be a couple seasons out from getting that 3rd spot back. Frankly.. We don't really need it.

 

[bennorii]

I hope they send whichever are the top two finishers. Realistically, no combination of two US women will get us three spots next year.

I agree with you but I feel like they're highly likely to send Ting to Junior Worlds no matter what, so will she go to both Jr. and Sr. Worlds if she comes in 2nd (or 3rd b/c Alysa)?

ETA: Frankly, I think it's just as important to get that 3rd spot back in juniors, which is arguably harder than getting it back in seniors. If Ting went to Jr. Worlds and did well, we could at least get some JGP spots back.

 

[littlesnow]

As a casual fan, I hope that Bradie and Mariah get the spots. Ting has lots of potential but to me Mariah is way more polished. I would love to see her get a chance to shine this year.

 

[brightphoton]

Don't we have a 30 yo pairs skater who competed as a singles skater and was off for like a decade before she came back as a pairs skater?

You probably mean Deanna Stellato. They finished 3rd last year at Nationals, behind the Knierems and the Swan Lake couple.

not sure what's going on with her and her partner this season, they recently withdrew after a really bad short program at Rostelecom Cup

 

[Metis]

You probably mean Deanna Stellato. They finished 3rd last year at Nationals, behind the Knierems and the Swan Lake couple.

not sure what's going on with her and her partner this season, they recently withdrew after a really bad short program at Rostelecom Cup

She had food poisoning. It was already in effect on the plane, so she was sick long before they hit the ice for the short.

 

[moonvine]

You're not crazy. I loved Maria Butyrskaya from day 1, until the end of her competitive career. Remember her disappointment of not getting out of qualifying at Worlds in 2002. Maybe Gracie will follow in her footsteps and go into coaching. She had spectacular technique during 2016 and she is still looked up to by everyone I know. To young skaters, I bet her Lutz/Toe is still played on the DVR.

Well, Gracie did VERY briefly go into coaching. She says that's how she decided she wasn't done competing.

 

[moonvine]

As a casual fan, I hope that Bradie and Mariah get the spots. Ting has lots of potential but to me Mariah is way more polished. I would love to see her get a chance to shine this year.

I sat behind Mariah's family at Nationals in Kansas City. They are super nice.

 

[Moxiejan]

Even if Bradie and Mariah are on track to peak at Worlds (assuming those two ladies go to Worlds at all), the competition is going to be crazier than ever. Russian and Japanese ladies have more depth than ever. Plus.....everybody else. It will take a very formidable team and/or a LOT of mistakes from others to get the 3 spots this year...or anytime in the future.

Despite all that depth, Japan & Russia still get only 3 spots each. So let’s say 5 out of the 6 skate lights out and grab places 1-5, but one has a rare weaker competition and finishes 8th. That leaves places 6 & 7 open to “everybody else” ... but also to Bradie & Mariah/Karen/?/. Obviously, all would have to go perfectly for the USA skaters to get 3 spots back, but this scenario isn’t wildly farfetched.

 

[Globetrotter]

I'm not sure that training under 6.0 was the the problem. Kwan was a 6.0 skater from start to finish and had excellent skating skills and good jumping technique. And the poster girl for skating skills, Carolina Kostner, also trained initially under 6.0. I also think Mirai's skating skills are under-rated. She has good speed and fulfills many of the IJS check boxes. She is certainly well above someone like Caroline Zhang. The current powerhouses in ladies skating, Russia and Japan, for many years had no medal contenders in ladies. Russia/USSR didn't have a ladies World Champion until 1999. For the longest time, Japan's only superstar was Midori Ito. Sport dominance is cyclical. Eventually, I think the US will have a dominant skater again. Look what happened with the US men, after struggling with no real contender since 2010.

I have to agree that basic SS has got nothing to do with whether one trains under 6.0 or IJS. I will say that SS is something that needs time to develop and it really is the foundational basis of being able to perform, interpret, have strong TR and execute more complex choreo. Being able to control speed and change directions will also be an advantage for jumps. IJS trained skaters do not have inherently weaker SS but rather, the quicker focus is on getting the jumps. Those with strong SS I dare say will likely have greater longevity in their career due to the strong basics. I don't think CaroK can last that long without her strong basics. MKwan is loved for her good stroking and footwork but I won't say she has the best jumps although she is generally solid except for a mild flutz and generally weaker on the edge jumps especially the 3R. Russia for a while had no contenders due to the political instability of the Soviet Union dissolution and for years, only Maria B and Irina Slutskaya were left to fly the Russian flag. It took many years before the infrastructure to support the growth of juniors came along. For that, I think Irina Slutskaya must be thanked for keeping the interest alive in Russia for the rise of the current wave of young ladies. Same for team Japan where Shizuka Arakawa and later Mao Asada helped popularise the sport. For US ladies, I really am struggling to think of many who were potentially great after Kwan retired. Sasha had the star quality but not the basics or mental toughness. Ashley had the toughness and national pride to fly the US flag but is inherently less talented on the bladework. Gold had the best talents but competitively fragile. Mirai's SS is underated very relative to Flatt or Zhang I agree but when compared internationally, it is really underwhelming. Its not the speed per se but the ability to sustain and vary them and it is the same issue with Ashley - compare how Gracie Gold generally can skate on deep edges and accelerate and change speeds with ease or how Kwan can hold the edge on a sustained basis. It is a very obvious sign of blade mastery which I feel Mirai and many others as well are lacking. Right now, I see only Karen Chen and Courtney Hicks who have the best potential to strike big but they need to be focused / injury free (Chen) and be able to rein in their power (Hicks). I suspect it is more likely one of the juniors like Ting or Liu will be able to breakthrough as the next big star.

 

[Globetrotter]

Very hard. Japan will field a strong team, and it looks like Russia will have good options for their third spot, too. Those two countries alone could keep the Americans out of the top 6 spots, and that doesn't even account for the strong skaters from other countries.

Russia is fairly predictable - Alina and Zhenya will be in and the 3rd most likely will be Liza Tuks based on current form. The first 2 are judges darling with Zhenya havin that untrainable X factor which easily make judges want to be generous. Tuks has the 3A and if she goes clean, none of the US ladies stand a chance. For the Japanese, it is very likely that Satoko will be fielded and the other two will be chosen from Rika, Kaori, Mai, Wakaba. Despite the small jumps, Bradie and Mariah are no match for Satoko on non jumps and the PCS and interpretive skills. They will be hard pressed to outskate the solid Mai or a healthy Wakaba who is probably thirsting for redemption. A clean Rika with 3A in SP and 2 x3A in the LP is probably unbeatable. gaining back 3 spots for US ladies will be very tough unless the 2 out of 3 of the Russian and Japanese trinity mess up big time.

 

[Moxiejan]

Russia is fairly predictable - Alina and Zhenya will be in and the 3rd most likely will be Liza Tuks based on current form. The first 2 are judges darling with Zhenya havin that untrainable X factor which easily make judges want to be generous. Tuks has the 3A and if she goes clean, none of the US ladies stand a chance. For the Japanese, it is very likely that Satoko will be fielded and the other two will be chosen from Rika, Kaori, Mai, Wakaba. Despite the small jumps, Bradie and Mariah are no match for Satoko on non jumps and the PCS and interpretive skills. They will be hard pressed to outskate the solid Mai or a healthy Wakaba who is probably thirsting for redemption. A clean Rika with 3A in SP and 2 x3A in the LP is probably unbeatable. gaining back 3 spots for US ladies will be very tough unless the 2 out of 3 of the Russian and Japanese trinity mess up big time.

To finish 6 & 7, the U.S. women need only 1 of the Russia/Japan skaters to mess up. The others can be in spots 1-5.

 

[Lightstar]

To finish 6 & 7, the U.S. women need only 1 of the Russia/Japan skaters to mess up. The others can be in spots 1-5.

But then are still the korean ladies, loena hendricks, alexia paganini all of them scored quite good recently!

 

[DenissVFan]

But then are still the korean ladies, loena hendricks, alexia paganini all of them scored quite good recently!

Possibly also Viveca Lindfors and Elizabet Tursynbaeva.

 

[frida80]

But then are still the korean ladies, loena hendricks, alexia paganini all of them scored quite good recently!

Possibly also Viveca Lindfors and Elizabet Tursynbaeva.

There will only be one Korean Lady this year. Either Eunsoo or Yelim. If Yelim’s consistency continues through the JGPF, Selection for 4CC, Nationals she’s going to get the Worlds Spot. But for some reason, I think Eunsoo is most likely to get the spot. Yelim clean will score around 200. Eunsoo, will be around 210. Both will be tough for Mariah to beat considering her Habitual SP problems. If Mariah can nail her SP, she’ll have a chance to beat the Korean Lady.

Elizabet is struggling with rotations and consistency. Her start of the season was strong but she’s lost a lot of steam. She’ll probably be around ~180.

Loena, I’d like to wait until Europeans. She had a good competition at Nebelhorn, but it looks like a lot of people’s underotations weren’t called. She got sick at SA and was probably still recovering at her 2nd GP. She could be anywhere from 180 to 210.

Alexia was really good, but her BV is pretty low. She doesn’t have a Flip in her program and she repeats a solo Toe Loop and a Loop instead of her very nice Lutz. I think she’s nearly maxed out. Probably won’t get above 190 unless she upgrades her content.

Viveca ia still up and down. Her best score is 187 at Finlandia. Then she got a 159 I’m GP Finland. I’m going to wait until Euros for her too. But I think she’ll be between 170-180.


This is where I think ladies will end up. Each of these groupings can be in any order.

1-2. Alina and Rika
3-5. Zhenia , Satoko, Liza
6-7. Kaori (or Mai/Wakaba) and Bradie
8-10. Eunsoo, Mariah, and Loena
11-12 Alexia, Elizabet

Viveca is a wild card, but I have her 13 or below. Elizabet can easily rise is she finds her grove again. Then there’s other unknowns like Liza’s 3A or if Alina has another implosion.

But, yeah I do see a way to get 3 spots. If just depends on how the dice rolls.