2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[Spirals for Miles]

I feel like at Nationals, more than at international events, if you can win the audience you can win the event. For most skaters, that means skating an error-free program with good choreography. Someone like Alysa could have her deficiencies overlooked if she outjumps the other women, but I think she'll need to bring excitement, in addition to the jumps, to place high.

I think Alysa's SP is very exciting and packed full of punch. It's such a wonderful program for her that I keep on rewatching it. So I definitely wouldn't be surprised if she took a lead in the SP.

 

[Sjs5572]

I think Alysa's SP is very exciting and packed full of punch. It's such a wonderful program for her that I keep on rewatching it. So I definitely wouldn't be surprised if she took a lead in the SP.

Yep. Rohene did a fantastic job enhancing the choreography. I can see Alysa 31 PCS in sp.

 

[Mathman]

I feel like at Nationals, more than at international events, if you can win the audience you can win the event.

Well, usually the audience likes the best performances best.

But there have been many times when the audience favorite was not the judges' favorite.

2010. Mirai Nagasu won the audience, Rachael Flatt won the judges. (Actually, she won the technical panel.)

2016. Max Aaron won the crowd, Adam Rippon won the judges.

(2014. I don't know if this counts. Jason Brown won the crowd (Riverdance). He won the LP but Jeremy Abbott won overall.)

2010. Evora and Ladwig won the crowd despite a couple of early mistakes. Denny and Barrett won the judges, correctly.

2014. Castelli and Shnapir won the judges. Zhang and Bartholomay won the crowd.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/23/22/13/232213a2ed52acfa64090014914c36d2.jpg

(I wonder what score they got on the bullet point, "sincere in emotion"? )

2000. Ice dancers Silverstein and Pekarek won the audience, Lang and Tchernyshev (no slouches themselves) won the judges.

 

[mrrice]

Well, usually the audience likes the best performances best.

But there have been many times when the audience favorite was not the judges' favorite.

2010. Mirai Nagasu won the audience, Rachael Flatt won the judges. (Actually, she won the technical panel.)

2016. Max Aaron won the crowd, Adam Rippon won the judges.

(2014. I don't know if this counts. Jason Brown won the crowd (Riverdance). He won the LP but Jeremy Abbott won overall.)

2010. Evora and Ladwig won the crowd despite a couple of early mistakes. Denny and Barrett won the judges, correctly.

2014. Castelli and Shnapir won the judges. Zhang and Bartholomay won the crowd.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/23/22/13/232213a2ed52acfa64090014914c36d2.jpg

(I wonder what score they got on the bullet point, "sincere in emotion"? )

2000. Ice dancers Silverstein and Pekarek won the audience, Lang and Tchernyshev (no slouches themselves) won the judges.

It's funny but, I agree with both of these comments. I think Mirai won the audience in 2010. However, Rachael won in my living room. Mirai beat Rachael at the Olympics but, I had Rachael beating her in the LP. Thank goodness I'm not a judge.

 

[Mathman]

It's funny but, I agree with both of these comments. I think Mirai won the audience in 2010. However, Rachael won in my living room. Mirai beat Rachael at the Olympics but, I had Rachael beating her in the LP. Thank goodness I'm not a judge.

As I recall, in both cases (Nationals and the Olympics) it came down to what under-rotations the panel called. At nationals, Mirai got dinged. At the Oympics, it was Rachael who had bad luck with the panel. (She should at least have finished fifth instead of seventh.)

By the way, I forgot ...

2006 ladies. Stephanie Rosenthal stole the show and got two standing ovations. She finished eighth.

(Best commentator's remark: "Look at that straight-line footwork!" as she is moon-walking down the ice backward in the SP. )

 

[mrrice]

As I recall, in both cases (Nationals and the Olympics) it came down to what under-rotations the panel called. At nationals, Mirai got dinged. At the Oympics, it was Rachael who had bad luck with the panel. (She should at least have finished fifth instead of seventh.)

By the way, I forgot ...

2006 ladies. Stephanie Rosenthal stole the show and got two standing ovations. She finished eighth.

(Best commentator's remark: "Look at that straight-line footwork!" as she is moon-walking down the ice backward in the SP. )

Stephanie!!!! I loved her...….She was a dancers dream at home on my Sofa. We all loved her and so did Uncle Dick. That's a great memory.

 

[skatefan17]

I feel like at Nationals, more than at international events, if you can win the audience you can win the event. For most skaters, that means skating an error-free program with good choreography. Someone like Alysa could have her deficiencies overlooked if she outjumps the other women, but I think she'll need to bring excitement, in addition to the jumps, to place high.

100% agree with this! I would even go as far to say that USFS would like Alysa to win and are trying to set that up for her. They need their next "Michelle" and they finally have someone with half a chance. However, it is unfair to place those expectations on a child and I wish they'd let her flourish as she can.

 

[Ice Dance]

Tuktamysheva is not exactly covering the ice well this season, but the triple axel is doing the job for her scores regardless. (As in, she really doesn't fill out the rink when she skates her free program this season. She doesn't get close to the boards during the whole program, and she has zero speed either into or out of that axel). I love Liza, and of course she has nice height on her jumps, plus I assume good rotations. I just want to point out that it's not just Rika who is outscoring the international field with her triple axels. Liza is doing it with only the one axel in the short and the free and without filling the rink.

 

[bobbob]

If everyone goes clean I think Alysa Liu will win in a landslide, with the highest components scores as well. Nationals judging is weird, folks.

The most important thing in how she does is the short. If she skates totally clean, in first, gets a late start order, she will win even with a couple of mistakes in the free.

On the other hand, if she makes one mistake on the 3A in the short, she will go down the rankings, with bad start order, and even with a perfect free, she will be down the leaderboard.

The short is always more important than the long at nationals.

 

[figurefan0726]

Tuktamysheva is not exactly covering the ice well this season, but the triple axel is doing the job for her scores regardless. (As in, she really doesn't fill out the rink when she skates her free program this season. She doesn't get close to the boards during the whole program, and she has zero speed either into or out of that axel). I love Liza, and of course she has nice height on her jumps, plus I assume good rotations. I just want to point out that it's not just Rika who is outscoring the international field with her triple axels. Liza is doing it with only the one axel in the short and the free and without filling the rink.

I agree. Liza is amazing with her technical scores, but struggles a bit in the artistic side. I think that Alysa Liu will be that as well at Nationals this year. If we get a Shin Amano like controller at nats, Alysa’s quick rotation is key to her success if she wants to win.

 

[andromache]

100% agree with this! I would even go as far to say that USFS would like Alysa to win and are trying to set that up for her. They need their next "Michelle" and they finally have someone with half a chance. However, it is unfair to place those expectations on a child and I wish they'd let her flourish as she can.

I think USFS would rather Bradie win. They'd like to be able to crown the same lady as National Champ two years in a row and boost Bradie's reputation as much as possible going into 4CCs and Worlds. But I think it's good that Alysa will be putting the pressure on Bradie - while Mariah is senior lady #2, I don't think she has the technical ability to REALLY contend for 1st with Bradie if both skate clean. Alysa is the bigger threat to Bradie, IMO.

 

[macy]

I think USFS would rather Bradie win. They'd like to be able to crown the same lady as National Champ two years in a row and boost Bradie's reputation as much as possible going into 4CCs and Worlds. But I think it's good that Alysa will be putting the pressure on Bradie - while Mariah is senior lady #2, I don't think she has the technical ability to REALLY contend for 1st with Bradie if both skate clean. Alysa is the bigger threat to Bradie, IMO.

i agree with this, and even though USFS likes to push one skater they really like almost no matter what, i do think they aren't dumb enough to push a skater who isn't even age eligible to compete internationally as a junior quite yet. but i have no doubt they'll push her as soon as it makes sense to, so most likely next year.

 

[bubblecherry]

Alysa's skating skills may be lacking (understandably so considering she's 12) but her performance, interpretation, overall movement and lines are already better than Bradie. Not better than Mariah though. I'd say the same about Ting. If PCS were fairly judged, it'd be very interesting.

 

[chuckm]

"Next year" depends entirely on how Alysa does in the JGP. She hasn't faced a Junior ISU tech team yet, so we don't know if her 3As will pass scrutiny.

 

[lanceupper1114]

Alysa's skating skills may be lacking (understandably so considering she's 12) but her performance, interpretation, overall movement and lines are already better than Bradie. Not better than Mariah though. I'd say the same about Ting. If PCS were fairly judged, it'd be very interesting.

PCS has never, and will never, be fairly judged. Pretty confident that Bradie will have the highest PCS if clean; she will certainly win the title if clean.

 

[sc8]

At 2018 Nats, Ashley Lin withdrew after the SP, so this year's withdrawal unfortunately is different.

---

FWIW, some (including me) would not be shocked if Alysa placed higher than third.

I agree! I’ve been watching her videos on YouTube and her artistic progress in the last year (she was already incredible technically) is remarkable. Some of the short, quick “junior” moves have been replaced by poised, signature expression and she is quickly progressing and maturing artistically. If Bradie and Mariah skate well, I see them going 1-2 or 2-1, but Alysa could set the rink on fire and, although a long shot, skate home with the gold. I’ve not seen her live, which to me makes a big difference in evaluating speed, strength, distance of jumps, but I’ve been to nationals more than a dozen times and know the audience, arena, pressure can really make a difference. Some of you older GS friends may recall Naomi Nari Nam’s magical performance at ‘99 nationals. Naomi set the house on fire and surprised us all. No matter where she places, I hope Alysa enjoys her first senior nationals and skates her best.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I'd say any placement for Alysa as high as 2nd wouldn't surprise me. Bradie has been so solid, and her scores would have been even better had she not tried to push herself to do a harder combo all season.

 

[bobbob]

I think USFS would rather Bradie win. They'd like to be able to crown the same lady as National Champ two years in a row and boost Bradie's reputation as much as possible going into 4CCs and Worlds. But I think it's good that Alysa will be putting the pressure on Bradie - while Mariah is senior lady #2, I don't think she has the technical ability to REALLY contend for 1st with Bradie if both skate clean. Alysa is the bigger threat to Bradie, IMO.

I don't get the impression USFS wants the same lady as National champ for two years in a row. It has only happened once in the last 13 years, and (IMO) they have had plenty of opportunity to have it happen more often. They seem to like the 'new' kid on the block.

If this were an international competition, I'd say Alysa Liu is a podium contender. But this is Nationals, let's not fool ourselves. She's the favorite to win. Nationals judges love the new kid who can skate clean, even with supbar skating skills.

 

[rachno2]

I fail to see the strategic benefit in crowning a novice skater national champion. It’s not like Alysa is competing against the Russian quadsters (besides maybe Tarakanova) next season, so there is no reason for USFS to send such a strong message internationally. She will do just fine on the JGP circuit without a national title under her belt, thanks to the triple axel (though whether an international panel will accept that jump is a whole different matter). What matters this season for USFS is giving Bradie a high score and tons of momentum heading into Worlds.

Alysa is a decent performer, but her skating skills and jump technique need a lot of work. PCS-wise, she is nowhere near Mariah, Ting or even Bradie, regardless of whether she is your cup of tea. If USFS knows what’s good for them, they will encourage Alysa to work harder (a pewter medal will do the trick, though I expect she’ll place as high as silver), not anoint her as the savior of the US ladies.

Of course, what USFS should do and what they will do may be two different things.

 

[moonvine]

I fail to see the strategic benefit in crowning a novice skater national champion. It’s not like Alysa is competing against the Russian quadsters (besides maybe Tarakanova) next season, so there is no reason for USFS to send such a strong message internationally. She will do just fine on the JGP circuit without a national title under her belt, thanks to the triple axel (though whether an international panel will accept that jump is a whole different matter). What matters this season for USFS is giving Bradie a high score and tons of momentum heading into Worlds.

Alysa is a decent performer, but her skating skills and jump technique need a lot of work. PCS-wise, she is nowhere near Mariah, Ting or even Bradie, regardless of whether she is your cup of tea. If USFS knows what’s good for them, they will encourage Alysa to work harder (a pewter medal will do the trick, though I expect she’ll place as high as silver), not anoint her as the savior of the US ladies.

Of course, what USFS should do and what they will do may be two different things.

But what if she has a splatfest and ends up 3rd?