I never liked such simplification. It's not one quad. It's one quad minus Alena's triple cost with good GOE i.e. +4/+5 points of difference at best. With two typical Trusova's quads (with +1/+2 average GOE) minus two typical Alena's triples with high GOEs she would get +8/+10 points back - and she still will be behind her considering Alena's higher PCS and GOEs on all her elements. More realistic scenario though is that she will fall on atleast one quad (with UR). So even 3rd place she can't take for granted.
True "monster" that Eteri raised is not Sasha or Anna. It's Alena. She is getting 9s in PCS even at junior level. She is getting +4/+5 GOEs for everything. She is short, has high jumps, fast rotation and unlikely to have growth spurt anymore. She is stable and consistent beyond belief. She has one of the best skating skills among all skaters (both junior and senior). And she is training with Eteri and has great reputation boost. What do you think will happen when she moves up to seniors? Noone will be able to beat her - even those with quads and 3As would lose to her on average since these jumps can't be consistent enough. Karolina, Satoko, Medvedeva? All of them would pale in comparison. She will become next unbeatable PCS queen but without their flaws. Difficult jumps? She just don't need them
Yes, I agree I simplified it a bit and it's probably more difficult than that. However, let's not talk about the gold. That's just speculation at this point. Besides Alena and Sasha, there's also Anna and she's only about 2 points behind and - if the layout hasn't changed since RusNats - will be doing a quad. She might or might not land it, but that's not the point. The point is, in my opinion, that any of these three could win here. It might be a bit more challenging for Sasha since she's behind from the SP but would it be possible? Absolutely.
Let's talk about the bronze, which is what Sasha needs to go to Junior Worlds. She might be in 7th place and that seems harsh but in reality, she's four points away from 3rd place. Four points! That seems absolutely doable and I frankly don't know why we should even worry. In my eyes, it's more than clear that she'll make it. Even if she URs a quad and has a fall. Even though I would really be happy for Tarakanova to go to Junior Worlds, it just seems wrong to think that Sasha won't be there. No, I just can't imagine that.
About Alena: If that was true, I would be very happy since she is my favorite junior skater. However, I wouldn't dare to assume anything here about her senior career that is, unfortunately, still only next season. But we all know that in seniors, if you have high BV, the PCS will quickly follow suit. Her advantage in PCS is working now because she's in juniors and she's getting extraordinary PCS for a junior skater. In seniors, however, the others might have caught up with her on that. I also know that she's very consistent and that's great but with her BV that just isn't as high as the other's she will probably be competing with (Rika, Sasha, Anna) she has a smaller margin for error. And she's human, like everybody else. She can't make mistakes or she'll lose any advantage she has. She seldomly makes mistakes, yes, but still... I will always cheer for her and I believe in her but I don't think she will be "unbeatable". I think she will have to fight hard for the top of the podium, just like she does now. But that's okay.
Wrong. While Sasha without doubt is the best jumper of 3Lz+3Lo combination - she is never had 100% success rate with it. All dedicated Trusova fans who watched all her trainings videos would know that there were quite a bit of issues with this combo even for her. Therefore it was destined to happen sooner or later in her SP. I think this combo is not worth the risk to put it in SP for mere half a point of difference - for Anna's SP they already realized it.
Well, she is human, so it's only logical that she wouldn't have a 100% success rate. But she failed the combo for the first time in competition this season and that's impressive. Especially if she's had troubles with in the practice. I think it's destined anyway, to have mistakes once or twice. No one can have 100% clean jumps all the time. That's just not how it works.
About the point difference: I agreed when they changed it for Anna. It was definitely too risky for her and she can do 3Lz-3T in her sleep so it's definitely the better choice. But Sasha has been consistent with the 3Lz-3Lo combo all season long in competition. Yes, it's risky, but to change it just because she failed once? Doesn't seem to me what Team Tutberidze would do and frankly, in this case, I would wait a bit longer too before changing it. Also, we can't deny that the 3Lz-3Lo right on the beat of the music in Sasha's SP is definitely a highlight. Personally, I would be very sad to see it gone.
They came from someone mentioned it at stream's chat. Supposedly the guy was one of skaters or spectators in the rink in Perm who probably overhear something from people around Sasha/Eteri. They say about minor injury (something like callus, most likely). Also Sasha yet again is wearing new boots (they were brown before and now they are white). Considering all of the above she may or may not be on podium tomorrow. Honestly I don't know but I wouldn't be surprised to see either result.
That doesn't sound very credible. Some anonymous nobody mentioning it that they overheard it. I will wait until there's at least a bit of basis for this speculation, like I already said. If the rumours are true however, I hope Sasha stops training quads until the injury is healed!! This would be more than dangerous, even if it's only a minor injury!
I didn't notice that because she had the tights over the boots completely. But it surprises me. She seems to be the only one of the 3A who changes boots more than once this season. And Anna is doing quads too, so it can't be that it's the force of the quads that's wearing them out.
Well, I would be more than surprised if she did not podium. That's Sasha we're talking about here. And she is only 4 points behind. It's not like she scored 60 points in her SP. She's almost at 70 and third place has 73. If she skates like she usually does, she should easily be able to do that.
Will they? RusFed shouldn't be worried about JWC quotas at all - in any case they will send strong enough team to secure it. And I can't remember any single case when JrNats results were overruled by RusFed/coaching council decision (they reserved that right only for seniors RusNat). Also Sasha already has season's best to guarantee her GP events next season. Also they just love to give spots to skaters from influential coach camps - the more coaches - the better. So, considering CSKA influence - I am almost expecting to see Vasilieva/Tarusina scores inflation tomorrow
But they should be worried about next year?? Not GP assignments but reputation. Sasha has the chance to enter her first senior season as two time Junior World Champ! About the influential coaches... I know about that but this year it's different. There were never a trio of skaters from one coach who were just so good. And Sasha has been doing really well all season long. I just can't see how they wouldn't take her to Worlds. Also: that's only if she doesn't podium. Which, like I said, is very unlikely in my opinion. Vasilieva to Worlds btw? She didn't even make JGPF! I would be happy for Tarusina too but her scoring potential just isn't that high. She's consistent though, so that might be a bonus. If it can't be Sasha, I would root for Tarakanova, though. Or Kanysheva, but she probably won't make it, given the disadvantage she has after the SP. But all in all, I think they can try and inflate all they want, there's no way Sasha will miss that podium.
