Inoue and Baldwin-what can we expect?

[Tinymavy15]

Last year, after their best season ever they were fourth-just off the podium. she landed both tripel axels. This year, her sucsess rate with them is much lower-and John can't seem to land clean jumps. We have yet to see two clean performnces in the same competion from this team all season. With worlds quickly aproaching i think it goes without saying that they will not improve upon last year's placement, but really, whta can we expect? top ten? top six? To get top six i would think that they woudl have to be clean in the short. That means landing side by side triple toes and the triple axel. THey only have a double twist(that isn't very high) and thier pair spins are rather slow. What do you think think thier goals are and what do you think is likely?

 

[Tonichelle]

John always has issues with at least one jump it seems at some point in the competition, sI guess we can count on that...

I just pray she lands the 3Axel so she doesn't end up killing her body out there...

 

[iloveaxel]

Actually I think they'll do reasonably well at worlds. Their conditioning improved quite a bit at 4cc, and it's very possible they'll peak in Tokyo.

They'll come in top six, that's pretty certain. If Miracle strikes and some top Chinese pairs and/or German pair bomb, they do have an outside shot at medals. In short program, they do 2A instead of 3toe, they'll score around 62 points if she lands that 3A. Remember at GPF, they beat S&S(she popped a 3toe, i believe) in short program even with a fall.

I&B are getting decent PCS these days, I believe their PCS scores are in high 6s these days, which means only the three Chinese pairs, one German and one Russian pair have higher PCS scores than them.

But their programs are just dreadful these days. Watch their 2004 4cc LP, I can't believe they were far better skaters at that time even without that throw 3A.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI--txj-FFY&mode=related&search=

They had far more interesting choreography, lots of transitions, in-betweens, lots of innovative and difficult lifts. They also had very good speed and power.

I don't know who did the programs for them the past two season. Their lifts, pair spins, death spirals are just awful. There's very little choreography in their programs.

The interesting question is whether they'll retire after this season. They were contemplating a retirement after Olys but decided to try another season. I think they will not retire. I mean, in terms of medals, prize money, they have had perhaps their best season in their entire career. One gold medal, two silver medals at GP events, fourth place in GPF.

After this season, Shen & Zhao, Pet & T are definitely leaving. So it may be very tempting for I&B to stay even longer.

 

[rjulie510]

Hasn't their coach Peter Oppegard choreographed their recent programs? I never understood why they never went back to Peter Tchernyshev for choregraphy because Peter T's "Beethoven Selections by Trans Siberian Orchestra" LP was what really helped them break out on international level. I felt that program had a lot more interesting choreography. (For the same reason I would also prefer their trainingmates Naomi Nari Nam/Themi Leftheris to go someone else for choreogrpahy as well: I don't find Oppegard's recent choreography all that interesting.)

I think I/B will do at least top 6 at this worlds. They do have an outside chance of winning a medal if other contenders make mistakes, but they haven't been that clean this season. And John Baldwin never seems to land SBS triple toe in the LP.

 

[antmanb]

Expect him to pop or fall on the SBS triple planned in the LP

Ant

 

[nymkfan51]

Expect him to pop or fall on the SBS triple planned in the LP

Ant

You find that amusing?

Anyway ... yes, he has problems with the jumps. I think a podium spot would pretty much be a miracle, but you never know. Things don't always go as planned.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

S&Z, S&S, Z&Z, P&T

I can't imagine two of the above teams with a meltdown.

I&B will definiitely be a top 10, imo, and an excellent chance for top 5. They will be in the last group to skate.

Joe

 

[iloveaxel]

S&Z, S&S, Z&Z, P&T

I can't imagine two of the above teams with a meltdown.

I&B will definiitely be a top 10, imo, and an excellent chance for top 5. They will be in the last group to skate.

Joe

Unexpected things do happen. If one melt down, another team get ill/injuried, all bets are off!

Ice is very slippery. A coupe of days ago, I was close to making a prediction that zhang & zhang might pull off a huge upset, but today I'm not even sure they can medal. Z&Z update their blog regularly. It seemed they were due to peak at worlds as their training and conditioning was getting better and stronger. My previous thought was that if they could pull off three sbs triples as planned in long program, and other teams falter a bit, they do have the technical stuff to pull off a huge upset even the choreography of that program is just garbage. I also based on my prediction on their performance at Winter University games. They delivered two clean programs(sbs jumps were watered down in LP though) after training for only four days. This team does have the mental toughness and luck along their career.

However, things have changed quite a bit, Dan Zhang caught some severe flu a couple of days ago, and she almost stopped training the past few days.These unexpected things happen all the time so it's very difficult to predict who will medal until the very last minute before competition.

Everybody thought that Joubert was a shoo-in, but now, everything is up in the air. Just another example...

 

[Tinymavy15]

I don't know who did the programs for them the past two season. Their lifts, pair spins, death spirals are just awful. There's very little choreography in their programs.

i was going to say that too. Last season's and this seasons LP's are almost the same. I think that they put so much focus on the axel, they don't want to get distracted by chroegrpahy, difficult steps, faster skating etc... I really liked the Beethovan's Last Night program... but other than that they are just boring until the triple axel comes around.

 

[antmanb]

You find that amusing?

Anyway ... yes, he has problems with the jumps. I think a podium spot would pretty much be a miracle, but you never know. Things don't always go as planned.

I find it amusing that they still insist on trying a SBS triple toe in the LP when he has a pretty much 100% miss rate on it. People criticise Buttle for falling on his quad and having it in the program...

Ant

 

[Sackie]

I have a hard time getting my head around the fact that all of a sudden because they attempt a throw 3A they are now up there with the top teams. Like some of you have already mentioned their programs have not improved - just the 3A attempt! It must be hard on other teams who have better programs but get passed over by a team that so strongly relies on one jump! Maybe some of the younger teams need to attempt a 3A just to get noticed and see how far it can take them.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I remember when they decided to do sbs 3 Lutzes. Then they went to sbs 3 Toes, Now they are on sbs 2As.

Unfortunately, a fall of one or both in a sbs jump is very anti-flow. It is extrememly notable and not just a boo boo. It's much more difficult than a single skater taking a fall to get up and get back in sync.

John tends to be the skater close to the boards for the 2A, and maybe that is why he has trouble getting into the 2A due to a larger back out side arc before take off. Maybe if Rena switched with him it would work.

Just a thought - Joe

 

[iloveaxel]

I have a hard time getting my head around the fact that all of a sudden because they attempt a throw 3A they are now up there with the top teams. Like some of you have already mentioned their programs have not improved - just the 3A attempt! It must be hard on other teams who have better programs but get passed over by a team that so strongly relies on one jump! Maybe some of the younger teams need to attempt a 3A just to get noticed and see how far it can take them.

You think throw 3A is easy? Of course it's hard on other teams who refuse or are incapable to upgrade their technical ability. This is still sport , it's not simply a beauty contest. It's ridiculous to think you can this thing by counting on some nice choreography only.

BTW, I don't really know which other teams deserve to rank ahead of them besides s/z, pang/tong, z/z, s/s and pet&T. Can you name any?

 

[Tinymavy15]

yes.... i remeber the season when they tried the side by side lutzes. I think john missed everyone... mostly pops or doubles.

 

[iloveaxel]

yes.... i remeber the season when they tried the side by side lutzes. I think john missed everyone... mostly pops or doubles.

they did land a sbs triple lutz at 2004 Skate America. Watch !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0wJFrbgeFM

 

[chuckm]

S&Z, S&S, Z&Z, P&T

I can't imagine two of the above teams with a meltdown.

I&B will definiitely be a top 10, imo, and an excellent chance for top 5. They will be in the last group to skate.

Joe

The most Pairs skaters in a flight is 4, so I&B would have to be in the top 4 to make the final flight. The top 5 make the final flight in Ice Dance.

 

[4dogknight]

I'll make a prediction:

After the competition some people will say it was too much and other people will say it was too little.

4dk - sarcasm is now off.

 

[Tesla]

Didn't John land the 3toe at 4CCs this year? I don't know. They could hit everything at just the right time. I have to agree with the long program not being very interesting. They need to go back to more upbeat music. The classical music does not suit them.

 

[antmanb]

You think throw 3A is easy? Of course it's hard on other teams who refuse or are incapable to upgrade their technical ability.

I don't think the poster said the throw 3A was easy. But do you think its so hard that it should make up for the fact that they don't attempt SBS triples in the SP and they almost always miss the SBS triple in the LP?

A pairs program is what 4mins30...the triple axel is one element that is over in under a second. It does not, a complete pairs program, make.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

yes.... i remeber the season when they tried the side by side lutzes. I think john missed everyone... mostly pops or doubles.

By all accounts John at the time had a very reliable triple lutz, with a very high success rate when he attempted it on his own, as soon as they tried it SBS he fell on it or popped it.

Ant

they did land a sbs triple lutz at 2004 Skate America. Watch !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0wJFrbgeFM

Come on - he kept his hands and free leg off the ice but he nearly head butted the ice...are the protocols available? I'm sure that they would have received unanimous -GOEs for that kind oflanding from him.

In fact, here is the protocol: http://www.isufs.org/results/gpusa04/GPUSA04_Pairs_SP_Scores.pdf

They scored a -1 for GOE from all judges except one who gave it a -2.

Ant