- Joined
- Jan 12, 2018
Yet she wouldn't have been on the national team the past season if those "three kids" were eligible..
2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating
- Thread starter Spirals for Miles
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2018
Being an Eteri's team fan I completely agree, it is boring to repell the same issues (mostly from the same users) again and again
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2018
I mean it's not like I don't like the 3A but like, there are other ladies that are also very interesting in the russian pool
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2005
This thread is becoming Alina's fanfest?????
Really????
First we have the contingent that are constantly predicting her "retirement".
Yeah, some day they will be right. But its almost done with "glee" like they are "wish-casting".
Just like with her certain "collapse" this past season as soon as she faltered.
Then we have those who are certain she is "unhappy" skating by the "look on her face".
And certainly, she is "all done" because of all these skaters coming up that do quads and triple axels.
Nobody else, mind you.
Just Alina.
(well, sometimes Evgenia too - but not so far in this latest crystal ball session)
You know, the girl that won Gold at Worlds after a season of struggles and "failures" (even though she still won 3 Golds and 2 Silvers)
And she did not "back into" the win because others failed.
She won with the 2nd highest score of the season. (it was also HER 2nd highest score of the season by the way)
And she won against a skater with a quad and a skater with a triple axel.
I don't expect that Alina will win everything going forward.
But I certainly think she will still be very competitive this coming season.
Really????
First we have the contingent that are constantly predicting her "retirement".
Yeah, some day they will be right. But its almost done with "glee" like they are "wish-casting".
Just like with her certain "collapse" this past season as soon as she faltered.
Then we have those who are certain she is "unhappy" skating by the "look on her face".
And certainly, she is "all done" because of all these skaters coming up that do quads and triple axels.
Nobody else, mind you.
Just Alina.
(well, sometimes Evgenia too - but not so far in this latest crystal ball session)
You know, the girl that won Gold at Worlds after a season of struggles and "failures" (even though she still won 3 Golds and 2 Silvers)
And she did not "back into" the win because others failed.
She won with the 2nd highest score of the season. (it was also HER 2nd highest score of the season by the way)
And she won against a skater with a quad and a skater with a triple axel.
I don't expect that Alina will win everything going forward.
But I certainly think she will still be very competitive this coming season.
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2018
I understand, that was just my bitter joke
I'm completely for talking about everything interresting and about other ladies, which is not related to their alleged "being done" or "career ending". It is true that there is not much talking about ladies outside Eteri's team now, with the exception of Zhenya (which is unfortunately often still somehow related to Eteri) and Nastya. There is significantly less info about Liza, Stasya and others, who deserve attention too.
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2015
Agree with some of the points you made.
Quads are a high risk, high return gamble. That's just the nature of the jump itself. None of the MEN have ever had absolute consistency with their quads in one season, let alone the upcoming senior girls. A fall on a quad immediately diminishes its value to half of its base value; E.g. the base value of a 4Lz is 11.5, so say a 4Lz would be only worth -5.75 with a fall, even less if its underrotated with a fall. A Lz-T or Lz-Lo triple combination is worth almost as much (10.10 and 10.80 respectively), especially if executed well the added GOE will be more than enough to make up for it. Even at Worlds this year, Elizabet with a clean 4S could not beat Alina with none – doing some quick math, even if she didn't miss her 2A-3T combo, Elizabet would still have been 2nd in the free. In other examples, Alena won over Sasha and Anna in JGPF this season with no quad attempts. Miki Ando in 2006 fell on her 4S (and another two times) to finish 15th at the Olympics that year.
The effect of this is even more so with the new +5/-5 scale GOE that really rewards good quality jumps and consistency, and heavily penalises falls. And don't forget there's also things like Spins, Step sequence etc. which have become more so important with the new GOE scaling; although, given quad girls are also Eteri girls, the levels I doubt will fall very far from there.
I think the only person at the moment who really benefits in terms of risk and rewards when it comes to jumping quads, may be Sasha. 1) she has had more consistency with the quad in competition at current moment and more experience with it, and 2) she has almost every quad at this point (4S, 4T, 4Lz, 4F), several in combination. An arsenal like Sasha's in terms of purely TES is extremely hard to beat, and if clean will surpass everyone in the field, speaking theoretically. But even her, she's not infallible, and if she falls, she's just as vulnerable as everyone – see, JGPF this year. Anna looks like she's training more than one quad at the moment, and has landed 4F and 4Lz I believe in combination at least in practice, and the above principle will also apply to her, if she can stick to her jumps in competition. And then there's also the whole growth equation for these girls; I think they have a good chance as any at keeping their jumps, but there's also a chance that they may lose the quads with age and time, or at the very least the consistency with it. Miki Ando did.
The truth is, 4 years in figure skating is a long long time. it's hard to tell how things will go. Whether the quadsters keep their quads, any injuries that may happen, whether Zhenya/Alina/any other seniors land a quad in that period, Liza with her 3A, Rika with her 3A, the other skaters from other countries and whoever new may come up from that side of the pond (Alyssa Liu? maybe? who knows) – its hard to tell at this point.
For now though, with a quad, without a quad, the odds at winning are about as good as anyone elses.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2014
Exacticly!
I forgot Alina won worlds against a quad skater and triple axel skater. That should prepare her for the upcoming season.
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2018
I just hope that some russian girls will rise to the occasion next season and will sneak on the national team. I mean how amazing would a great comeback be [emoji4] and to change the conversation a bit, who does have any predicitions or dream programs for some of the less talked about russian girls?I understand, that was just my bitter joke
I'm completely for talking about everything interresting and about other ladies, which is not related to their alleged "being done" or "career ending". It is true that there is not much talking about ladies outside Eteri's team now, with the exception of Zhenya (which is unfortunately often still somehow related to Eteri) and Nastya. There is significantly less info about Liza, Stasya and others, who deserve attention too.
My secret dream is that Elena would skate to a james bond medley and Anastasia G to the theory of everything, since it has such a beautiful soundtrack
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2019
I agree with you! The music is great and definitely suits Sasha’s powerful skating. Maybe she can develop a softer side for the less intense parts of the music too. I’d love to see her developing her artistic side! I was so excited when I saw the notification. Danny G did something really right!!
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2018
Where could one see this performance of Elena’s? I really miss her and her fiery personality.
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2018
https://youtu.be/A8lDO2WP4Pk
This is the official broadcast version [emoji4] I was so lucky to see her and others there live and it's totally amazing how she really can capture your attention, her charisma is incredible
I think you are forgetting a very important aspect of the quads.
Since there are rules about repeating 2 of the same jumps, doing a quad enables the skater to do harder combinations and overall have a higher BV on everything else.
We will start with Scherbakova:
At Junior Worlds, she did a 4Lz, and then 3F+3Lo, 2A, 2A, 3Lz+3T, 3F+1Eu+3S, 3Lz. Taking out the quad (and not considering 2nd half bonus), her jump BV was 42,9.
Now, lets look at senior worlds, and top 3 in FS.
Zagitova's total jump BV (no second half bonus): 45,4
Kihira's total jump BV (no second half bonus): 50,8
Medvedeva's total jump BV (no second half bonus): 44,0
Anna has 42,9 with 1 jumping pass missing. To beat the senior skaters in jump BV, she would need:
Fall AND UR on 4Lz (4,31 - 1 fall deduction) would be enough to still have higher jump BV than both Zagitova and Medvedeva.
Basically any landed 4Lz (not downgraded) would put her on same level with Kihira (with 2 3As).
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2018
I admit I would like to see Elena's long bright hair on the big competition again, I just don't know if she will be able to return. Of those "left behind" (or "Napoleon's Old Guard" as I've called them recently) I would like to see Anna Porilaya the most but there is probably no chance now.
And I have a weak spot for Stanislava Konstantinova, despite she still had some meltdowns she was significantly stronger this season than ever before and I hope she will continue in that.
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2018
I actually really really liked Stanislavias free skate this season. Especially at russian cup final it was so so good and about Elenas return I agree that it is very mysterious, since she was never someone that posted stuff from training or similar things but to me that makes me even more excited if she gets the motivation to return and maybe even up her tech a bit
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2015
Why are you not considering the 2nd half bonus?
jumps BV
SP:
3A, 3F+3T // 3Lz(x) = 23,99 - Kihira
2A, 3F // 3Lz+3Lo(x) = 20,48 - Sasha
3Lz+3Lo, 2A // 3F(x) =19,93 - Alina
3Lz, 2A // 3S+3T(x) = 18,55 - Tursynbaeva
3F+3Т, 2A // 3Lo(x) = 18,19 - Evgenia
FS:
3A+3T, 3A, 3Lo, 3Lz+2T // 3F(x), 3Lz+2T+2Lo(x), 3S(x) = 52,65 - Kihira
4S, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo // 3S+3T(x), 2A+3T(x), 2A+1Eu+3S(x) = 52,31 - Tursynbaeva
2A 3Lz-3T 3S 2A // 3Lz-3Lo(x), 3F-2T-2Lo(x), 3F(x) = 47,84 - Alina
3Lz, 3S3Lo, 3F2T2T, 3Lo // 2A3T(x), 3F(x), 2A(x) = 45,61 - Evgenia
Anna:
4Lz, 3F-3lo, 2A, 3S // 3Lz-3T(x), 3F-2T-2Lo(x), 3Lz(x) = 56,03
4Lz+3T, 4Lz, 2A, 2А // 3Lz-3Lo(x), 3F+1Eu+3S(x), 3Lz(x) = 63,28
Sasha:
4Lz, 4T, 3F3T, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo(x), 3Lz-1Eu-3S(x), 3F(x) = 63,28
4Lz, 4T-3T, 4T, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo(x), 3Lz-1Eu-3S(x), 3F(x) = 67,48
4Lz-3T, 4Lz, 4T, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo(x), 3Lz-1Eu-3S(x), 3F(x) = 69,48
Why are you not considering the 2nd half bonus?
With second half, her advantage is even bigger, so I dont consider it to basically give her some room to grow and make mistakes on other jumps whatever, maybe move a combo to first half or whatever:
With second half bonus
Anna's jump BV, skipping the quad: 45,51 + 1 jumping pass
Senior ladies total jump BV:
Alina: 47,84 --- 2,33 points above Anna without quad, 4Lz < and fall (4,31-1) would be enough to beat Alina
Rika: 52,65 --- 7,14 points above Anna without quad, any somewhat landed 4Lz would be enough to cover this difference (< or stepout)
Zhenya: 45,28 --- Zhenya's BV is lower than Anna's (without one jumping pass)
Not comparing to Lizzy because Tursynbaeva also has a quad.
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2015
You're very right! Part of the reasons to do a quad is that it gives you more room for greater permutation of jumps and jump combinations. I think my main point is that a quad ALONE, in and of itself is insufficient to be unbeatable. A good example of that at the moment is Elizabet, who has a 4S and her jump layout is otherwise fairly standard.
Beyond that, there's also a lot of other factors to consider.
1. Like I mentioned, high risk and high reward nature of the quad; falling on a quad is one thing, a fall on a 4Lz (-5 GOE) is one thing, but there is very high risk of underrotation or downgrades +/- a fall. We've seen it happen with Trusova and with Shcherbakova at points. For example, Shcherbakova's 1st 4Lz at GPF was both a fall and downgraded; her BV for that jump was 5.90. With a -5 GOE as per falls in this new protocol, her score for that jump was 2.95.
2. GOEs make a huge difference. Don't forget NEGATIVE base value. In a fall thats half the original base value. If its a downgrade or underrotation, that's negative GOE on top of the reduced GOE. If its a fall, that's half the base value of the downgraded jump. See above with Anna's <<4Lz. On the other hand, your competitors are getting positive GOEs on their jumps. Which is to say a 3Lz with +4 GOE is getting 8.26 for the same jump VS 2.95 – a 6 point difference. A <4Lz with a -3 GOE (6.04) or a fully rotated 4Lz with a fall (5.90) will still be disadvantaged against a well executed 3Lz.
3. In theory harder jump combinations, yes. But in practice the opportunity cost of attempting the quad is high. The inherent difficulty of the Quad, and the amount of power/energy required to attempt the jump means that ceteris paribus, you'll have less energy for the rest of your jumps; on tired legs, the skater may NOT necessarily be able to execute the higher value jumps PLUS the chances of messing up other jumps after the quad is not an insignificant one due to tired legs. A skater doing triples will inevitably have greater reserves to execute combination jumps in the bonus as well. The base value difference with the harder permutation jumps are really only about 2 or 3 points, a gap not insurmountable in the face of competitors positive GOE and (theoretically) putting all higher value combination jumping passes in the bonus. Also, while Shcherbakova's programme includes harder combinations, Elizabet's (with a quad) does not. So the inclusion of harder jump combinations really only go as far as the skater's ability to execute them consistently.
Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Quads, and I think it's great that Russian girls are really pushing the frontier with it BUT as there are benefits to including them, there are also downsides. Quads do not make the skater unbeatable by far; land the quad, and you'll wipe the floor and will almost surely win, but failing to do so, and its more or less fair game for everyone else – the probability of either happening is equally high. Alina with no quads was able to surpass Rika who had 5 BV higher at Worlds, Alena beat out Sasha who had a 19 point BV gap. There's no guarantee with quads.
The efficacy of a program with quads will come down to the ability to balance risk and benefit. Team Tutberidtze's decision to change up Shcherbakova's program to cut back on the quads (multiple) mid-season really helped to increase the stability of landing the jump and maximised the use of a quad in Anna's case.
I guess this was a lengthy post but I guess tldr is that
- In theory YES QUADS.
- In practice, much more complicated than that.
Why are you not considering the 2nd half bonus?
jumps BV
SP:
3A, 3F+3T // 3Lz(x) = 23,99 - Kihira
2A, 3F // 3Lz+3Lo(x) = 20,48 - Sasha
3Lz+3Lo, 2A // 3F(x) =19,93 - Alina
3Lz, 2A // 3S+3T(x) = 18,55 - Tursynbaeva
3F+3Т, 2A // 3Lo(x) = 18,19 - Evgenia
FS:
3A+3T, 3A, 3Lo, 3Lz+2T // 3F(x), 3Lz+2T+2Lo(x), 3S(x) = 52,65 - Kihira
4S, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo // 3S+3T(x), 2A+3T(x), 2A+1Eu+3S(x) = 52,31 - Tursynbaeva
2A 3Lz-3T 3S 2A // 3Lz-3Lo(x), 3F-2T-2Lo(x), 3F(x) = 47,84 - Alina
3Lz, 3S3Lo, 3F2T2T, 3Lo // 2A3T(x), 3F(x), 2A(x) = 45,61 - Evgenia
Anna:
4Lz, 3F-3lo, 2A, 3S // 3Lz-3T(x), 3F-2T-2Lo(x), 3Lz(x) = 56,03
4Lz+3T, 4Lz, 2A, 2А // 3Lz-3Lo(x), 3F+1Eu+3S(x), 3Lz(x) = 63,28
Sasha:
4Lz, 4T, 3F3T, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo(x), 3Lz-1Eu-3S(x), 3F(x) = 63,28
4Lz, 4T-3T, 4T, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo(x), 3Lz-1Eu-3S(x), 3F(x) = 67,48
4Lz-3T, 4Lz, 4T, 2A // 3Lz+3Lo(x), 3Lz-1Eu-3S(x), 3F(x) = 69,48
It's a minor difference, but I just wanted to point out that Anna doesn't do 3S and 3F-2T-2Lo anymore, she does 2A and then 3F-1Eu-3S. It's a tiny difference, but her BV would be 57.01. 45.51 if we exclude the quad.
So moriel is still right: If Anna falls and URs on one 4Lz (gaining 4.31 and then losing 1.00 for the fall deduction), she's at 48.82. Higher than Alina's 47.84 and Evgenia's 45.61.
And as moriel mentioned: If she lands any 4Lz, even underrotated, her BV increases by 8.62. That's 54.13. Already ahead of Kihira by a point and a half, which should be more or less enough to make up for the GOE lost on that underrotation.
And for Anna, I think her falling and underrotating her 4Lz is essentially her worst case scenario - the only time she had it downgraded was at EYOF when she was injured. So even at her "worst" her BV is still above Alina and Evgenia. We've yet to see the very male-skater scenario of botching one quad and then screwing up the rest of the free program with Sasha or Anna.
So it really depends on her consistency to get PCS, and on how many quads she's attempting. Based on how the team seems to be working on her 4Lz hit rate, I would think that they probably intend to let her go for two, but that's just a guess.
Edit: I just read monochrom3's in-depth post and realised that Anna's 4Lz was downgraded at GPF as well, so sorry, my mistake!
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2013
Y’all can undervalue Sasha’s performance all ya like. It won’t change my opinion and I think her PCS going to rise next year and I’m gonna enjoy it :bullett:
