2021-2022 U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Lutzedge]

@kan01 I hope you’re right! Seriously, it’s actually really great that he’s started the season winning Finlandia and taking silver at Skate Canada, and depending on how he does in France, making the GPF is not out of the question. Still, there’s a heavy emphasis in the USFS Olympic selection procedures on scores, so the fact his scores this season are a bit stagnant and somewhat below his personal best is a little concerning.

@TontoK, I take your points and don’t at all disagree that he needs to improve, but at least in terms of selection for the Olympic Team, what really matters (unless the selection committee ignores the selection document ) are (1) the level, trend, and consistency of the skater’s scores at selected competitions; (2) where the skater’s scores fall relative to benchmark scores (ie top 3/5/10 at Worlds 2021); and (3) where the skater places at Nationals. So far this season, Jason has been consistently in line with the top 10 at Worlds benchmark. His total scores are well below his personal best (274+) and have been basically stagnant (262 Worlds, 262 Finlandia, 259+ SCI) mostly due to issues in the FS (his SP scores are trending upward). So it will be important for him to improve at his GP and any other competitions he does this fall. But for purposes of selection, whether he should have placed behind Morisi in the FS doesn’t really matter.

As to the “soon to retire veteran” versus the “up-and-comer” debate, at least theoretically that’s not really relevant, and to the extent it is, you could also consider that Jason brings something really unique to the sport, and Ilia is still pretty much a work in progress. But I digress.

What’s really relevant is that although people are excited by Ilia’s quads and scoring potential, it’s mostly due to his scores at two competitions that I don’t think even count for selection purposes - a club competition and the qualifying competition at Leesburg. What will count for purposes of selection is his performance on the JGP, at the JGPF, at his upcoming senior B, and at Nats. He’s got a lot of talent and has done well on the JGP, but right now he’s just barely reached the top 10 scoring benchmark (245) once. Depending on how he does the rest of the season and whether Jason falters, it’s possible he could be selected to the team. Time will tell.

Ilia's SP at the JGP didn't have quads though. He did very well at the US series, and he has an International Senior event in Austria coming soon, as well as another US Series comp, the JGPF, Nationals, and maybe some other comp(s). But Jason is doing great as well, and November starts just tomorrow. And the last line "Time will tell" makes sense and is what we are looking at.

 

[TontoK]

As to the “soon to retire veteran” versus the “up-and-comer” debate, at least theoretically that’s not really relevant, and to the extent it is, you could also consider that Jason brings something really unique to the sport, and Ilia is still pretty much a work in progress. But I digress.

You make excellent points in your entire post... I'm just pulling a snippet.

I agree that the "veteran vs up-and-comer" debate should be irrelevant, because I think the Top 3 at Nationals should be the Olympic Team, assuming they eligible in all respects, and the 4CC and World Teams should go right down the line, if the Top 3 take a pass on those.

Our musings are predicated that there will be backdoor wrangling for team selections, and I hope that is not the case. I want an obvious, non-controversial selection this time, and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Tavi...]

Ilia's SP at the JGP didn't have quads though. He did very well at the US series, and he has an International Senior event in Austria coming soon, as well as another US Series comp, the JGPF, Nationals, and maybe some other comp(s). But Jason is doing great as well, and November starts just tomorrow. And the last line "Time will tell" makes sense and is what we are looking at.

Interestingly, I don’t think the selection document says anything about scoring differences between junior and senior competitions (I may have missed it, so correct me if I’m wrong). It’s just you make the benchmark or you don’t. Now will someone on the selection committee argue that junior scores should get some kind of bump or bonus to make them equivalent to senior scores? Maybe, although I hope they don’t. My guess is that when they drafted it, they didn’t anticipate that a JGP skater would be competitive for the Oly team. But it’s just a guess and it may be wrong.

Really, though, I think it doesn’t make much sense to compensate for junior scores. The whole stated point of this selection process is to field the most competitive team. A JGP skater will generally not be very competitive initially as a senior because they’re lacking in presentation skills. A skater like Kamila Valieva is an exception. I guess Ilia could be an exception because he’s theoretically capable of scoring quite high anyway because of his base value. But if that’s true, he will probably demonstrate that at his senior B, so his JGP scores will be less important.

 

[TontoK]

@Tavi... I don't recall his exact score, but I recall analyzing Ilia's Leesburg VA Championship Series protocols, in which he competed as a senior. (I think I did that on this thread, but I am old and don't remember exactly.)

Those scores would have landed him first at Finlandia and second at Skate America. This was before Skate Canada, but I think it would have probably earned second there.

Now... there are all sorts of disclaimers on this analysis... different panels, different ice, different competitions, different pressure... etc. But that score won't (and shouldn't) go unnoticed by the selection panel. Now... can he back that up? We'll see. I'm looking forward to his Senior B in Austria, which will be a step up in pressure and strength of competitors, and it should be fun to watch how he handles himself there.

 

[Tavi...]

@Tavi... I don't recall his exact score, but I recall analyzing Ilia's Leesburg VA Championship Series protocols, in which he competed as a senior. (I think I did that on this thread, but I am old and don't remember exactly.)

Those scores would have landed him first at Finlandia and second at Skate America. This was before Skate Canada, but I think it would have probably earned second there.

Now... there are all sorts of disclaimers on this analysis... different panels, different ice, different competitions, different pressure... etc. But that score won't (and shouldn't) go unnoticed by the selection panel. Now... can he back that up? We'll see. I'm looking forward to his Senior B in Austria, which will be a step up in pressure and strength of competitors, and it should be fun to watch how he handles himself there.

I’m sure the selection committee will know about the scores. I mean they can’t help it, right? It’s just that the selection document lists the competitions that will be considered for selection, and the qualifying competition isn’t listed. Although I suppose you could argue it’s part of Nats even if it’s stretching the point.

All of the competitions listed in the selection document are international competitions, except for Nats - which they consider separately.

I think in part that’s to give more weight to Nats results. But I also think international scoring and domestic scoring are just really different because many/most judges judging at the qualifying and national levels aren’t yet qualified to judge at the ISU level. As I’m sure you know, Nats scores are often more generous than international scores. Perfect example? Jason scored about 292 at 2020 Nats, but his international PB is only about 274. From what I saw of Ilia’s protocol as compared to his actual performance, the panel overlooked some stuff, gave him + GOE for some poorly landed jumps, etc.

So while it’s impressive that Ilia scored as well as he did in Leesburg, we don’t really know how the same program would have been scored by an international panel. I’ll be really interested to see how Ilia scores in Austria.

 

[moonvine]

You make excellent points in your entire post... I'm just pulling a snippet.

I agree that the "veteran vs up-and-comer" debate should be irrelevant, because I think the Top 3 at Nationals should be the Olympic Team, assuming they eligible in all respects, and the 4CC and World Teams should go right down the line, if the Top 3 take a pass on those.

Our musings are predicated that there will be backdoor wrangling for team selections, and I hope that is not the case. I want an obvious, non-controversial selection this time, and let the chips fall where they may.

But the US Fed has already stated they will not be choosing the Olympic team that way and have released the way they are going to be chosen so at least the athletes know.

 

[Lutzedge]

Interestingly, I don’t think the selection document says anything about scoring differences between junior and senior competitions (I may have missed it, so correct me if I’m wrong). It’s just you make the benchmark or you don’t. Now will someone on the selection committee argue that junior scores should get some kind of bump or bonus to make them equivalent to senior scores? Maybe, although I hope they don’t. My guess is that when they drafted it, they didn’t anticipate that a JGP skater would be competitive for the Oly team. But it’s just a guess and it may be wrong.

Really, though, I think it doesn’t make much sense to compensate for junior scores. The whole stated point of this selection process is to field the most competitive team. A JGP skater will generally not be very competitive initially as a senior because they’re lacking in presentation skills. A skater like Kamila Valieva is an exception. I guess Ilia could be an exception because he’s theoretically capable of scoring quite high anyway because of his base value. But if that’s true, he will probably demonstrate that at his senior B, so his JGP scores will be less important.

This may sound dumb, but what is a Senior B? I have heard it mentioned a bunch of times, and I was just wondering.

 

[kan01]

This may sound dumb, but what is a Senior B? I have heard it mentioned a bunch of times, and I was just wondering.

An "Other International" or a Challenger competition. Senior As would be Grand Prix, GPF and major international competitions like Worlds, 4CC, Europeans.

 

[Lutzedge]

An "Other International" or a Challenger competition. Senior As would be Grand Prix, GPF and major international competitions like Worlds, 4CC, Europeans.

That makes sense. Thanks!

 

[ribbit]

This may sound dumb, but what is a Senior B? I have heard it mentioned a bunch of times, and I was just wondering.

An "Other International" or a Challenger competition. Senior As would be Grand Prix, GPF and major international competitions like Worlds, 4CC, Europeans.

Actually, "Senior B" usually refers to senior international competitions that aren't part of the ISU Challenger series. This year there are 10 Challenger events (Lombardia, Autumn Classic, Nebelhorn, Nepela, Finlandia, Asian Open, Denis Ten Memorial, Cup of Austria, Warsaw Cup, Golden Spin). Other international events, such as Cranberry Cup, Tallinn Trophy, or Mentor Torun Cup, are referred to as "Senior B" competitions. You can find a complete list here: ISU Competitions 2021-22.

Results in Challengers earn more World Standings points than results in other internationals ("Senior Bs"). Winning a Challenger earns a skater a place in the pool of alternates for Grand Prix events that season, if that skater hasn't already qualified for consideration as a replacement through their previous season's results. And there is prize money for the best finishers across the Challenger Series overall.

ISU Rules for Challenger Series

 

[TontoK]

@ribbit Thank you for that explanation and for the file. I'm always a little confused about Challengers and Senior B's, and this helps.

So, if I'm reading correctly, I've been wrongly identifying the Austria competition as a Senior B, when it is really a Challenger event?

I suppose for purposes of this discussion it might be irrelevant. I imagine the purpose of sending Ilia to Austria is to earn validated international minimums. If the Olympics are out of reach (and I don't quite concede that, at least yet) Ilia would still be eligible for 4CC and Worlds, provided he meets the minimums.

*I don't think he has met the minimums as a senior, but that may also not be correct.

 

[Lutzedge]

Joseph Klein competes tomorrow in Fort Wayne, Indiana. Hopefully he can bounce back and skate better!

2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series prese

Event Results for 2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series prese

ijs.usfigureskating.org

 

[kan01]

Actually, "Senior B" usually refers to senior international competitions that aren't part of the ISU Challenger series. This year there are 10 Challenger events (Lombardia, Autumn Classic, Nebelhorn, Nepela, Finlandia, Asian Open, Denis Ten Memorial, Cup of Austria, Warsaw Cup, Golden Spin). Other international events, such as Cranberry Cup, Tallinn Trophy, or Mentor Torun Cup, are referred to as "Senior B" competitions. You can find a complete list here: ISU Competitions 2021-22.

Results in Challengers earn more World Standings points than results in other internationals ("Senior Bs"). Winning a Challenger earns a skater a place in the pool of alternates for Grand Prix events that season, if that skater hasn't already qualified for consideration as a replacement through their previous season's results. And there is prize money for the best finishers across the Challenger Series overall.

ISU Rules for Challenger Series

I wasn't sure about Challengers.

 

[ribbit]

@ribbit Thank you for that explanation and for the file. I'm always a little confused about Challengers and Senior B's, and this helps.

So, if I'm reading correctly, I've been wrongly identifying the Austria competition as a Senior B, when it is really a Challenger event?

I suppose for purposes of this discussion it might be irrelevant. I imagine the purpose of sending Ilia to Austria is to earn validated international minimums. If the Olympics are out of reach (and I don't quite concede that, at least yet) Ilia would still be eligible for 4CC and Worlds, provided he meets the minimums.

*I don't think he has met the minimums as a senior, but that may also not be correct.

With those files you know as much as I do! My understanding is that while some events are usually (always?) Challengers, others are not. For comparison I dug up the equivalent ISU document for the 2019-20 season; that year the Challengers were Autumn Classic, Lombardia, US Classic, Nepela, Nebelhorn, Finlandia, Ice Star, Asian Open, Warsaw Cup, and Golden Spin. So this season Denis Ten Memorial and Cup of Austria are in, and US Classic and Ice Star are out. Some fairly desultory Googling suggests that Cup of Austria used to be a JGP event, so perhaps that's why we're not used to thinking of it as a Challenger.

I know that the ISU sets out requirements for the national diversity and qualifications of the technical and judges' panels. I wouldn't be surprised if those were higher than the Senior B requirements, and consequently more difficult and/or more expensive for the organizers to meet, and therefore not every fed would want to host a Challenger every year. But that last sentence is speculation on my part; undoubtedly someone else will be better informed.

Speculating again, perhaps Ilia's team/USFS chose to send him to a Challenger instead of a Senior B for the extra World Standing points? If he's aiming to make his Grand Prix debut next year, and hoping for an ISU competition (4CCs/Worlds/Olympics) at the end of this year, the additional points from a Challenger would help him climb the lists toward qualification for the Grand Prix series, or at least for the pool of alternates.

 

[chuckm]

Ilya needs the Senior ISU TES minimums to be eligible for 4CC, and he could get those at the Challenger. If he doesn't make the Olympic team, a high placement at 4CC would earn big WS points. Ilya is currently #37 on the WS list with 792 points. A JGPF win and a top 5 Challenger placement could move him into the top 24. But he'd need the 4CC points to push him high enough to stay in the top 24 at season's end. That's important for GP events next season.

 

[el henry]

Ilia also needs the senior ISU TES minimum for Worlds (presuming that he does not go to the Olympics and that in an Olympic year Worlds, skaters like Nathan would choose not to go).

I do not know if he can get those at a Senior B. Desultory googling did not give me an answer

 

[karne]

Ilia also needs the senior ISU TES minimum for Worlds (presuming that he does not go to the Olympics and that in an Olympic year Worlds, skaters like Nathan would choose not to go).

I do not know if he can get those at a Senior B. Desultory googling did not give me an answer

Yes, he can, as long as the B meets the requisite requirements (off the top of my head skaters from 5 countries and judges from 3).

 

[Lutzedge]

A good triple/triple combo for Taira Shinohara, as he leads after the SP. Joseph Klein follows very closely in 2nd.

2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series prese

Event Results for 2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series prese

ijs.usfigureskating.org

 

[mrrice]

Ilia's SP at the JGP didn't have quads though. He did very well at the US series, and he has an International Senior event in Austria coming soon, as well as another US Series comp, the JGPF, Nationals, and maybe some other comp(s). But Jason is doing great as well, and November starts just tomorrow. And the last line "Time will tell" makes sense and is what we are looking at.

At this point, Jason would have to have a disaster performance at Nationals for Ilia to make the team. Jason has a HUGE Body Of Work edge on Ilia and you know the US Judges will throw as many PCS as it takes to make sure Jason makes the team. I love Ilia but, unlike the Ladies field, our Men are pretty solid as they are.

 

[yelyoh]

On a side note, did anyone see Tairo Hiroshina's SP at Fort Wayne comp last night? He did really well and looks really young. Joseph Klein is in the same comp. IMO TH is another young man from the US to look out for.