I do not consider that a big risk. Let's say he gets 3 points for a failed 4 flip, as opposed to 5.3 points for a successful 3 flip. That's a penalty of only 2.3 points.
If he rotates the 4 flip but then falls, the penalty is approximately 0.
If he succeeds with the 4 flip he gets 10 points or so -- double the value of the 3-flip.
There certainly isn't any additional penalty in the PCSs, as we just saw.
Quad risks varies among the skaters, depending on the likelihood of success, which is why most would not try it in a competition until there is an acceptable chance of success. Of course with the rule change, the acceptable rate of success for each skater has fallen. E.g. whereas a skater might only try it in competition with confidence factor of 90% when the penalty was high may now do it with a 75% success rate. A risk taker may drop the practice success rate to 50% these days before actual attempts in competition. Patrick Chan waits for 80% success in practice before putting it in the program in competition.
If we look at Takahashi's Quads, from
Quads Of The Season that I compiled, he had just one success all of last season, a 4T at NHK, and his 3 other quads earned him 2 - 3.50 points, 1 - 2.5 with fall deductions, and I assumed his attempt at Worlds would have likely failed as well. A 3F has a base value of 5.30, 5.83 if done during the second half of the program, and he is likely to receive GOE too, especially without the quad attempt taking out his energy. Thus, in 75-80% of cases, he is certain of giving away at least 2.8 points from his already relatively low TES, more with +GOE for his 3F. His 4F at NHK 2011 is relatively successful, with a < instead of usual << and it earned him (5.0 -1.0 =)4 points, still less than an OK 3F at 5.3 or 5.83. If he were to do a 3Lz (worth 6.0 or 6.6 with bonus) instead, the point deficit increases to 3.5 or more. Considering it was also at NHK that he had the sole quad success last year, it is not necessarily encouraging for success for the rest of the season. However, maybe he does feel more confident this season with a fully repaired knee.
At Takahashi's rate of success, it is a big risk, an almost certain loss of valuable points at crucial competitions, eating away his PCS advantage, even before we consider the effect of his poorly invested energy in the quad. He is so used to falling at the quad attempt at the beginning of his program so the program disruption is stabilized and minimized, still it might help his P/E without the fall.
The risk for someone able to at least fully rotate the quad most of the times, it's a worthwile risk. But it's not a certainly, especially for skaters beginning quad attempts in competitions even if they do full rotations regularly in practice. Then again, we see over and over how later jumps and sometimes the whole program just fall apart after a quad attempt, successful or not. There is still a heavy price aka risk except for the few for whom quads are routine. Or maybe, as we have seen what happens with Kevin Reynalds.
I expect the psychological effect of more and more quads attempted and landed will make the its negative impact on the program much less than before. But as of now, I really can't agree that there is no risk in quad attempts. Only the risk varies with different skaters, depending on their rate of success, the quad's impact on their program, and on their stakes in the competition.
Then the audience clapped lauder after the program with some yelling to show that they loved what he just did. I felt his power when I watch it.
