The connections from one element to the next that you point out would be a few of many over the whole program that would figure in to the Transitions component. Just in these few seconds before and after the double axels, Kim probably deserves more credit for Intricacy.
But if we chose different small segments of the programs, Sotnikova might come out ahead on Transitions. If we were really looking at the program components rather than GOEs, we'd need to look at the whole program, not isolated clips.
I don't know the rules well enough -- so what you're saying is that directly connecting two scored elements (in this case a jump into a spin, but it could be anything else like a step sequence into a spin, maybe a spin into a jump which would be unlikely but fun to watch) doesn't affect the GOE for either element?
My guess about why some judges scored S +3 vs. K +2, or S +2 vs. K +1, would be that Sotnikova's double axel looked higher/faster/covering more ice to them in real time than Kim's, enough to give that bullet point to S and not K. It looks that way to me on video, only slightly, but maybe the effect was stronger in real life. You're obviously seeing it differently -- which speaks to the subjectivity of evaluating "good" height, distance, and ice coverage by the naked eye.
I looked a bit into perspective and projection math to derive distance estimates for jumps from fan cams of the whole rink. With some basic assumptions, the distances covered by the jumps are fairly straightforward to calculate (if a bit tedious) from fan cams using two-point perspective math (i.e. 2 vanishing points, one for the rink's length and the other for the rink's width). The fan cam videos that I used were:
Adelina:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lf0wI25cD3U
Yuna:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_7eZ4SZ82Y
My assumptions were that the rink was an Olympic-sized rink of 60 meters by 30 meters, surrounded by barriers of an unknown but same height (with obvious cutouts), and that all angles are right angles (i.e. rink is rectangular with rounded edges, barriers are vertical). From each image of the video it's straightforward to measure the inside edges of each barrier as well as the 2 edges of the rink that are visible, to establish the locations of the two vanishing points. The barrier establishes the scale (using the Olympic-sized assumption) and the corner formed by the 2 visible edges of the rink establish the origin used to measure distances. The rest of it is a bunch of math which will probably bore everyone, but basically, once these are measured and calculated, it's possible to work out where the skater was on the rink at any given point. For example, a grid spaced 5 meters between points was generated using this information (without reference to the image other than the measured points), which I then hand-plotted:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/120676593@N05/14294036954/sizes/o/in/photostream/
The red dots are the grid, while the small bright green dots are the points I used to measure the rink dimensions. In theory I could plot this for any image except that it takes a long time (since I measured and plotted them by hand).
Anyway the distance that the skaters moved with their double axels, overlayed (and moved slightly to account for the camera moving during the jump), is here:
Adelina:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/120676593@N05/14294072854/sizes/o/in/photostream/
Yuna:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/120676593@N05/14107969598/sizes/o/in/photostream/
It's just to give viewers a sense of how far they moved in their jumps, not used in the measurements. You can see that Yuna was closer to the judges but jumping more away from them, while Adelina was farther away but jumping (relatively) more across. For each image (takeoff and landing for each skater), I measured the rink dimensions, and then used that to work out how far each skater traveled in the air. I took the upper corner of the rink as the origin, with the long side as the x-axis and the short side as the y-axis. For both takeoff and landing I used the center of the blade as the skater's location. The results were:
Adelina: (54.9, 17.6) to (54.4, 20.3) => 2.7 meters
Yuna: (20.9, 12.2) to (21.5, 14.1) => 2.0 meters
To make a long story short, from the fan cam videos Adelina covered more distance on that jump than Yuna, even though both had the same height (based on how long each was in the air). (This may also imply that Adelina was moving faster into the jump, though not necessarily proves it since it depends on how each skater "used" the speed to get the height.) So depending on the judges, they may have felt that 2.7 meters deserves a bullet while 2.0 meters doesn't. I'm not saying that they took out a ruler and measured it, of course, but just in terms of how far it appeared to them. I would say that's likely a noticeable difference to the naked eye, and it's more a matter of how likely it is that the cutoff for each judge is within that range.
It would require instrument-calibrated measurements to determine what the actual height, distance, and ice coverage were, which figure skating scoring does not use at this time. If they ever do, that will take those evaluations away from the judges. But for now, those aspects of the elements are estimated by eye in real time and not subject to the rewinding and slow-motion replay we engage in here to try to analyze after the fact.
I would argue against using physical instruments (such as sensors on the figure skates) and more for software instruments (i.e. software analysis of videos). Obviously cameras are also a type of physical instrument, but my point is that I would argue against anything that is specific to the skater. It makes the instrument too easy to tamper with (since it's out of sight for long periods of time), too hard to ensure they're properly calibrated, etc. I think a video system is sufficient to determine quite a few of the measurable quantities of interest such as jump height, distance, etc. It's easy enough to count the frames that a skater is in the air as a proxy for jump height, not to mention use it to determine things like whether or not the skater had fully rotated a jump. Even from a random fan cam I can determine the jump distances to within tens of centimeters (size of 1 pixel was about 3 cm by 6 cm where Adelina was at, and about 6 cm by 24 cm where Yuna was at). Only one calibration would need to be done, and it would affect all skaters equally; in essence, they're all measured by the same yardstick, which is also the quality we want in judging (that a judge holds each skater to the same standard, regardless of whether it's high or low). I don't think it would necessarily take those evaluations away from the judges. Even though those metrics can be measured, there's still other issues like how early or late a jump was done (a jump may still give a height bullet for a smaller jump done later in the program), how the skater's height affects the jump quality (a judge may give a shorter skater the jump height bullet but not for a taller skater even if both jumps are the same height), etc. which I think would still be up for consideration. It's that measuring would take away much of the guesswork in this. Then again, so would the judges being more transparent in terms of showing which bullets they considered a jump or other element to have met, etc. rather than giving simple GOE's.
Interesting. Sky Italia did a sbs video analysis between Carolina and Adelina.
I must say the guy who did it it's from Eurosport Ita. He is very knowledgeable, not biased at all and openly a Yuna fan.
He said that the best footwork were Carolina's. I regret that I didn't recorded that but I was not expecting it.
He said that both were level 4 but that Carolina's performance was a bit better, therefore higher GOE for her.
I don't know about Yuna though because it was done the day after by Barbara Fusar Poli, and I didn't see that bit.
Keep in mind I was talking about the SP; I haven't looked at the FS yet. I haven't really looked at the FS footwork for Kostner, only the SP.
It is an interesting view from the Italian commentator, especially on Yuna should be on level 4. On Chinese boards on Baidu (by Xmypku - an objective poster) did analyse all step sequences as well (+ Mao, Carolina), and come to conclusion Yuna's step sequence is the most difficult and intricate because the sheer number of movements (Some 50+ movements) that must be seamlessly integrate with the music with little margins for error which in itself is an added challenge compare with a more giving piece of music. It was certainly my reason for appreciating this piece of work since the beginning - even it had been work in progress due to sheer ambition outside the COP parameters, I was curious if she can deliver the intention when it matters.
I thought I'd summaries all these step sequences from the top 4 ladies.
Any mistakes in translation is my own fault, please feel free to correct and I am happy to amend. (I fully expected it, this is all a bit new to me translate tech terms from Chinese into English since some words like inner and inside is the same word in Chinese.)
Neato. Thanks! Gonna have to digest it slowly.