General talk and questions on top ladies

tjb · Oct 15, 2017

skateluvr said:
Polina T is on youtube -a russian test skate? I wish posters used English. also Anna p has a Sp up- maybe more. Please Russians I can’t post links on iPad unless someone teaches me. What is this Russian skate about? Links please . Both looked lovely-Polina T is elegance personified.

test skates was held in september, anna and polina didn't participated in it
now they are competing at russian cup, it's a series of domestic competitions, where skaters are qualify for the nationals (anna and polina do this just for practice, since they are in gp, they already got their spots at nationals)

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 22, 2017

The update to my power ranking list based on the latest data

1. Medvedeva - the one and only, 230+ with a fall. Seems invincible.
2. Osmond - has not skated yet
3. Zagitova - has not skated yet
4. Mihara - has not skated yet. After Wakaba's imperfect showing at CoR has strengthened her #1 Japanese lady position at least before the first GP event.
5. Kostner - moves up from #10. 215 without 3-3 and lutz at FS. Beat Wakaba by 8 points. A room for growth. Big brand equity.
6. Wagner - moves up from #7. She has not skated yet but after what Nagasu, Chen, and Bell showed so far the place of USA #1 is hers to take (big meltdown aside)
7. Higuchi - moves down from #5. She could not capitalize on Lombardia's momentum. Still solid with a killer FP.
8. Miyahara - has not skated yet.
9. Sotskova - has not skated yet.
10. Tsurskaya - has not skated yet. Was not perfect at Russian Cup but still a good promise unlike Anna P. whom I take out of the list.

dante · Oct 22, 2017

Senior ladies who have earned 180+ this season

Code:

231.21  RUS  Evgenia Medvedeva
218.46  RUS  Alina Zagitova
217.63  JPN  Wakaba Higuchi
217.55  CAN  Kaetlyn Osmond
215.98  ITA  Carolina Kostner
205.30  RUS  Maria Sotskova
199.02  JPN  Mai Mihara
198.42  JPN  Marin Honda
196.70  USA  Bradie Tennell
195.56  JPN  Yura Matsuda
195.52  RUS  Elena Radionova
194.00  JPN  Kaori Sakamoto
189.98  JPN  Rika Hongo
189.13  RUS  Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
188.56  USA  Mariah Bell
183.85  USA  Angela Wang
183.54  USA  Mirai Nagasu
182.32  USA  Karen Chen
182.08  RUS  Alisa Fedichkina
181.00  KAZ  Elizabet Tursynbayeva

Honorable mention:
174.83  CAN  Gabrielle Daleman

Have not competed yet:
        RUS  Anna Pogorilaya
        JPN  Satoko Miyahara
        USA  Ashley Wagner

tars · Oct 22, 2017

[email protected] said:
The update to my power ranking list based on the latest data

1. Medvedeva - the one and only, 230+ with a fall. Seems invincible.
2. Osmond - has not skated yet
3. Zagitova - has not skated yet
4. Mihara - has not skated yet. After Wakaba's imperfect showing at CoR has strengthened her #1 Japanese lady position at least before the first GP event.
5. Kostner - moves up from #10. 215 without 3-3 and lutz at FS. Beat Wakaba by 8 points. A room for growth. Big brand equity.
6. Wagner - moves up from #7. She has not skated yet but after what Nagasu, Chen, and Bell showed so far the place of USA #1 is hers to take (big meltdown aside)
7. Higuchi - moves down from #5. She could not capitalize on Lombardia's momentum. Still solid with a killer FP.
8. Miyahara - has not skated yet.
9. Sotskova - has not skated yet.
10. Tsurskaya - has not skated yet. Was not perfect at Russian Cup but still a good promise unlike Anna P. whom I take out of the list.

How can you put skaters who has not competed at all in the season on the power ranking list?

What do you know about Miyahara's or Wagner's form at this very moment to put them over skaters who medalled in GP(!) or won smaller tourneys?
Your list looks more like reputation/life achievements list, not a power ranking.

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 22, 2017

tars said:
How can you put skaters who has not competed at all in the season on the power ranking list?

What do you know about Miyahara's or Wagner's form at this very moment to put them over skaters who medalled in GP(!) or won smaller tourneys?
Your list looks more like reputation/life achievements list, not a power ranking.

Isn't figure skating a lot about reputation and strong federations? Is ladies not the crown jewel event based on media attraction and the number of posts at GS (Hanyu is a stand alone phenomenon to challenge that)? My list partially relies on this. Hence, I have Wagner because other US ladies were not convincing and US #1 lady should be in Top-10 IMO. Should Nagasu had won the CoR bronze as some predictors hoped I would have placed her in the list instead of Ashley.

Miyahara was Japan's #1 in the post Mao era. She won over Radionova at 2015 worlds - she won over almost perfect Pogorilaya at 2016 GPF. I cannot discount this. Wakaba lost to Zagitova. Mihara lost almost 20 points to Osmond. If Satoko just stays on her feet in her first event she has all the makings to regain her leading Japanese spot. If not, well, in my first edition there was Anna with a strong last season and just one big-time meltdown. After seeing her once in a local competition I crossed her out of the list. The same might happen with Ashley and Satoko once they start competing.

And one more thing. The list will change dramatically. Power rankings do not reflect who the better skater is. In it's later version it will include skaters with lower scoring potential (I wanted to say "weaker skaters" but want to avoid controversy). The list has to reflect the fact that there are only 2 Japanese and 3 Russians who will be in the national teams. Other skaters can be superb but they won't have power as they won't be able to compete. The top 10 power ranking list after the nationals will be:

Kostner
3 Russians
2 Japanese
2 Canadians
1-2 Americans
0-1 Korean
0-1 Kazakhstan

tars · Oct 22, 2017

Just realized, I've written here some time ago, I won't treat any "top10" list without Marin Honda in it seriously.
I made a mistake, sorry for that. :agree:

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 22, 2017

tars said:
Just realized, I've written here some time ago, I won't treat any "top10" list without Marin Honda in it seriously.
I made a mistake, sorry for that. :agree:

She will be 100% in the list if she gets in the Japanese national team. If not she can be in the "elegance on ice", "best fluidity" and other similar lists but not in the power rankings. Her situation (and her skating) reminds me of Gubanova -she is an angel but with little power so far.

So Marin competes with Wakaba, Mai, and Satoko. My personal assessment is that her chances are lower than mathematical 2/4 = 50%. But let's see how it goes at CoC - the biggest GP event for the Japanese skaters. She does not have to win the event - she has to win over Mai and Wakaba. If this happens I will surely add her to the power ranking list taking out one of the other two (who are currently there).

It's like in a joke when 2 tourists in Taiga see a bear. One quickly starts to change his high boots for running shoes. The other asks: why? you won't outrun the bear. - My task is to outrun you.

tars · Oct 22, 2017

Two posts earlier you wrote you change the list dramatically according to national Oly quotas AFTER the nationals, so now I'm not sure how your list works.

For instance, will you include Honda on the list, if she wins over Wagner at SC?
What if Hongo wins and Osmond finishes 5th?
What, if Honda and Hongo take 1st and 2nd and Wagner finishes 9th over Hicks and Chen?
Will Japanese skaters be out of the list, because there in potential tough domestic competition at nats and Osmond and Wagner always on the list, because of weaker domestic competition at nats?

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 23, 2017

Two posts earlier you wrote you change the list dramatically according to national Oly quotas AFTER the nationals, so now I'm not sure how your list works.

It works probabilistically. Any new information (competition results, injuries) may bring changes to the list

For instance, will you include Honda on the list, if she wins over Wagner at SC?

It depends on what both she and Wagner show. If Honda wins over Wagner with 180 it won’t affect her chances.

What if Hongo wins and Osmond finishes 5th?

In this unlikely situation Osmond will move down but will stay in list in any case if healthy (same as Caro). Hongo will only get in the list if she scores above 210 as this is the minimum threshold for 2 Japanese ladies.

What, if Honda and Hongo take 1st and 2nd and Wagner finishes 9th over Hicks and Chen?

For the Japanese it’s all the same. Provisional 2-3 ladies to have only 2 in the end. For Russia it’s 3-4 to have only 3. If Wagner melts down I might change her to Chen or Bell, not Nagasu at this stage.

Will Japanese skaters be out of the list, because there in potential tough domestic competition at nats and Osmond and Wagner always on the list, because of weaker domestic competition at nats?

Once again, Osmond will be always on the list if healthy. There may be objectively stronger Japanese skaters but who cares if they cannot show their strength at the key events?

tars · Oct 23, 2017

So you already build the list according to national Oly quotas, not waiting until after the nationals.

Your list is more of a projected Olympic power ranking, rather than 17/18 season ladies power ranking.
It has not much to do with real power of individual ladies skating at the very moment someone reads it.
In this sense it's not very informative.

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 23, 2017

tars said:
So you already build the list according to national Oly quotas, not waiting until after the nationals.

Your list is more of a projected Olympic power ranking, rather than 17/18 season ladies power ranking.
It has not much to do with real power of individual ladies skating at the very moment someone reads it.
In this sense it's not very informative.

Cannot agree. So far there are only 3 "sure bets" - Medvedeva, Osmond, and Kostner. They have both the power of leading ladies in their feds with almost guranteed spots at major events: continentals, worlds, and Olympic games and 17/18 results: Medvedeva 231, Osmond 217, and Kostner 215. So they are in the list per se. Others reflect my personal view on the power at the moment. Hence, there are overall 4 Russians with the quota of 3, 3 Japanese with the quota of 2. On the other hand, only 1 Canadian with the quota of 3. The biggest if is whom to place from the USA. I believe that in any Top-10 list there should be at least 1 American skater now. It was easier in previous 3 seasons: first Gracie, than Ashley. Now it's trickier.

Towards Olympics the quotas will start to play the role. Once again if one does not have the right to compete what sort of power we are talking about?

If we look at the juniors and extrapolate the status quo it may be that having American (and Canadian) ladies towards the end of the next quad won't be a pre-requisite for the power lists. It may be among Russia, Japan, and Korea plus some occasional skaters from other countries.

tars · Oct 23, 2017

[email protected] said:
Once again if one does not have the right to compete what sort of power we are talking about?

Then why don't you put World bronze medalist Daleman on the list, who is basically lock for Olympics instead of, let's say Miyahara, whose actual form we don't know at all and who will have to fight very hard for Olympic spot?

If we look at the juniors and extrapolate the status quo it may be that having American (and Canadian) ladies towards the end of the next quad won't be a pre-requisite for the power lists. It may be among Russia, Japan, and Korea plus some occasional skaters from other countries.

It's been obvious since Young You, Eunsoo and Yelim invaded Korean Nationals podium in 2015/16. I'll go even further and say Asian girls will slowly surpass Russian girls in next 10-15 years. Not that I'm happy about it, but still...

russianfan · Oct 23, 2017

tars said:
I'll go even further and say Asian girls will slowly surpass Russian girls in next 10-15 years. Not that I'm happy about it, but still...

are you working in korean maternity hospital and know some secret info? :laugh:

tars · Oct 23, 2017

russianfan said:
are you working in korean maternity hospital and know some secret info?

Just observation. Genetics in regard to puberty issues+eastern work ethic/culture+popularity of the sport.

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 23, 2017

tars said:
Then why don't you put World bronze medalist Daleman on the list, who is basically lock for Olympics instead of, let's say Miyahara, whose actual form we don't know at all and who will have to fight very hard for Olympic spot?

Because the ladies I put on the list are either objectively stronger as the season started or #1 in the powerful federation (USA). Another thing is pcs at recent challengers. 71 to Osmond vs. 61 to Daleman says a lot about their relative power despite one is a silver and the other is a bronze medalist.

tars · Oct 23, 2017

[email protected] said:
Because the ladies I put on the list are either objectively stronger as the season started or #1 in the powerful federation (USA). Another thing is pcs at recent challengers. 71 to Osmond vs. 61 to Daleman says a lot about their relative power despite one is a silver and the other is a bronze medalist.

I asked about Daleman vs Miyahara...

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 23, 2017

tars said:
I asked about Daleman vs Miyahara...

Miyahara has a history of being Japan's #1 lady while Gaby just had one skate of her life and now shows "business as usual" with scores as usual. If Satoko falters at her first GP event I shall ruthlessly cross her out as the Japanese competition is very strong for these 2 elusive spots.

beki · Oct 23, 2017

It's much too soon to write Gabby off. She could definitely bump Wagner or Chen off the list.

tars · Oct 23, 2017

[email protected] said:
Miyahara has a history of being Japan's #1 lady while Gaby just had one skate of her life and now shows "business as usual" with scores as usual. If Satoko falters at her first GP event I shall ruthlessly cross her out as the Japanese competition is very strong for these 2 elusive spots.

Oh, she has history. OK.

Good luck with your list. :thumbsup:

samkrut@mail.ru · Oct 23, 2017

tars said:
Oh, she has history. OK.
Good luck with your list. :thumbsup:

This is still a reputational sport, isn't it?

General talk and questions on top ladies

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