Cup of China Preview

[Kasey]

Winning the short program at Skate America was not at all realistic when Oda scored an 81 in the short program. Weir and Takahashi could not get close to that with their great shorts at Skate Canada, Oda's short was just a special skate with unusual high GOE scores imparticular.
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Takahashi scored almost 79 at Skate Canada without the quad and with a scratchy landing on the 3A. That's pretty close to 81. Having been at both events, I think Takahashi was slightly undermarked on GOE, and Oda, perhaps a little overmarked in his non-jumping skills. Just saying.

 

[temperboy28]

Takahashi scored almost 79 at Skate Canada without the quad and with a scratchy landing on the 3A. That's pretty close to 81. Having been at both events, I think Takahashi was slightly undermarked on GOE, and Oda, perhaps a little overmarked in his non-jumping skills. Just saying.

I prefer Takahashi's skating to Oda's. The judges seem to like Oda quite a bit though and wont be shy about giving him the scores. His GOE on his jumps are probably deserved, but I agree his GOE on spins and footwork are sometimes exagerrated a bit by the judges.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It's difficult for me to compare scores from different competitions. There is so much diverse subjectivity at the times of scoring that I can't really fathom, the Personal Best as gospel. Judges have bad hair days, too, and they may just not score the same as when their hair was well groomed.

The scores are fine for That Night. They are nitty pickie scores that results in a winner and I'm all for that. I like to watch and see if the scores come up to a standard - not necessarily to the 1/10th of a point:

Men - 270 points

Ladies - 230 points

Am I too lenient or too impossible?

Joe

 

[chuckm]

In most cases (and especially in ice dance) the outcome is heavily determined by the PCS scores. As we all know, the PCS scores are being used by the judges to place skaters where they want them, and random selection absolutely plays a heavy hand in who comes out on top and who doesn't.

That is why the cloak of secrecy over the judging is especially troubling. Worse, now the ISU has decided that they will announce the composition of the judging panels at the beginning of the season. That gives the judges (and their federations) ample time to wheel and deal with other judges/federations and come into each competition with an agenda on which skaters/teams to push up, and which ones to place down.

It's only going to get worse from here, folks.

 

[antmanb]

It's difficult for me to compare scores from different competitions. There is so much diverse subjectivity at the times of scoring that I can't really fathom, the Personal Best as gospel. Judges have bad hair days, too, and they may just not score the same as when their hair was well groomed.

I like that rationale a lot!!!!

Ant

 

[Mathman]

My boyfriend just told me you were a mod here. Ok now I understand it, you are standing up for the administration person on this site and it is why you are valiantly defending some of the wierd parts of the summary since the top said site administrator.

Jouralism is tricky. Sometimes you have to say something in a controversial way or no one will read your article. This thread would not have attracted all this heat if GSk8 had said,

"Lysacek usually messes up his SP and then has to scramble to make the podium," and

"Belbin and Agosto will want to win big and get their season off to a good start."

(So I figured it was up to me to say that, LOL.)

 

[Mathman]

Men - 270 points

Ladies - 230 points

Am I too lenient or too impossible?

For the ladies, i would say 230 is pretty near impossible under the current point system. The highest ever is (so far) is 198 by Slutskaya at Cup of Russia last year. It is hard to see where an extra 32 points is going to come from. Even if you augmented Irina's performance with four extra triple Axels, that wouldn't do it.

For the men, Plushenko got 258 at the Olympics. If someone did three quads and a bunch of other stuff, maybe 270 is possible.

The way the CoP is factored, this would be the equivalent of a 216 point performance for a lady.

By the way the second highest men's total for a short program and a long is Joubert, with 236.78 points at Worlds last year.

 

[slutskayafan21]

For the ladies, i would say 230 is pretty near impossible under the current point system. The highest ever is (so far) is 198 by Slutskaya at Cup of Russia last year. It is hard to see where an extra 32 points is going to come from. Even if you augmented Irina's performance with four extra triple Axels, that wouldn't do it.

Well if Shizuka had done her triple loop in Turin that would have taken her close to 130, and the 2 triple-triples she was practicing could have put her in the 135 range. If she had done the triple-triple in the short, as she was also practicing I heard, she could have been in the 70 range in the short, so that is up to a 205 area. Slutskaya at Worlds in 2005 would have been in the 134-135 area had she not done a 3rd triple loop, and done another triple instead. She has scored 70 in the short, even though she never does a triple-triple in the short, so that brings her to the 205 area. So maybe that is the limit realisticaly?

For the men, Plushenko got 258 at the Olympics. If someone did three quads and a bunch of other stuff, maybe 270 is possible.

Plushenko could have scored atleast 8 points higher in the long. He only gained 1.1 points by jump bonus points later, he gave up 1.5-2 points there on what others were doing. He lost 4.2 by doubling the triple flip late, but maybe another full point on GOE since his jumps were averaging a huge +1 average almost on GOE. He would have gained another 1.5 points had he done a second quad instead of a second triple axel, and if he did both even more. He definitely could have been in the 175 range. Lambiel and Buttle both could have scored the high 160s range at the Olympics had they landed all their jumps cleanly IMO(although that would mean Buttle landing the quad cleanly which is impossable for him anyway) and both are capable of doing much harder and stronger spins under COP then they are doing now IMO.

Plushenko's 90 in the Olympics plus a 175 brings im to a 265 had he maxed out his long program score. Lambiel could probably have topped 250 if he did all his planned jumps cleanly at the Olympics in both short and long as well.

By the way the second highest men's total for a short program and a long is Joubert, with 236.78 points at Worlds last year.

That will definitely be beaten by atleast one Lambiel, Oda, or one of the other top skaters this year I predict.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It seems to me there are arguments (in the good sense) of certain Single skaters and Dance teams. Some of these arguments have nothing to do with CoC. Every skater skates to win and it is not unusual that they don't. Think Mao Asada in SA. B&A were slated for Silver or an upset for the gold in the Worlds a, but it didn't happen. Lysacek is never considered for the podium in THE major competition but he is there! and almost at the Olys. The Chinese Pairs have gotten so much attention that one of them has to win - or do they?

I will watch to see if Bebe is Big Time this year.

Joe

 

[emma]

MM or anybody that understands this - was is the 'factoring' for ladies that is not used or differently used for men? What is the rationale for this? Thanks.

 

[Mathman]

MM or anybody that understands this - was is the 'factoring' for ladies that is not used or differently used for men? What is the rationale for this? Thanks.

For ladies, the Program Component Scores are multiplied by .8 for the short program and by 1.6 in the long program.

So for instance in the short program if you got straight 8.75s across the board in each of the categories, your PCS would be

8.75 x 5 x .8 = 35.

This factor seems to be about right if your goal is to keep the technical scores and the component scores in balance. That outstanding SP might also have got about 35 points on the tech side, for a total of 70 points.

For the long program, you can get about twice as many points for your technical score (7 jumping passes instead of 3, etc.) So if you multiply the LP component scores by 1.60, that keeps everything in balance between tech and components, and makes the whole long program worth about twice as much as the short.

(This lady would hope to score a total of 140 points in the LP, 70 in tech and 70 in components. This gives her a total of 210 points overall -- a new world record! )

If you add up the tech scores that men are expected to get (one more jumping pass, they do quads, triple Axels, etc.), it comes out to about 25% more than a ladies' program of similar quality. So to keep everything in balance, you multiply the men's program component scores by 1.00 for the SP and by 2.00 for the LP.

These factors are 25% higher than for the ladies (.8 and 1.6). So a man with straight 8.75s in program component scores in the SP will get a second mark of 8.75 x 5 x 1.00 = 43.75 for the exact same marks that the lady got 35 points for.

That's why we are saying that a ladies' score of 216 points matches up to a man's program of 270 (25% higher).

 

[SeaniBu]

For the long program, you can get about twice as many points for your technical score (7 jumping passes instead of 3, etc.) So if you multiply the LP component scores by 1.60, that keeps everything in balance between tech and components, and makes the whole long progrm worth about twice as much as the short.

That explains Miki's LP tech:agree: Thanks. That was heavy on the end. x 1.6, MM you are so helpful in understanding, particularly with numbers, sometimes those things just go to my brain.
I was still surprised (not that she is entitle to opinion Of Course) that Peggy thought there should be a difference in placement of Kimmie, not that I would have minded either, but I do agree with the placements. Miki's prog was great IMO, and all the way up to the end. Kimmie had some sketchy seeming landings but her personality was really getting good! I am glad I got up for it.

 

[gsk8]

Ok now I understand it, you are standing up for the administration person on this site and it is why you are valiantly defending some of the wierd parts of the summary since the top said site administrator.

Very uncalled for and immature comment - not to mention irrelevant. You are obviously new to the forum. Welcome! I hope your attitude changes quickly.

 

[emma]

Thanks for the explanation MM -- it really does make sense now. I'll have to print this out or I'm certain to forget a month from now.

So, if we were to talk about any possible gender bias, the factoring of PCS is NOT really an example of that - what MIGHT be is the different number of technical elements for men and women - right?

 

[lanadd]

I think Sandhu will be beaten by skaters other then Lysacek. The sport is passing him by and he is too inconsistent to be near the top. I think the event being in China will mean Chengaing Li will be overscored and win a medal because he is in China or maybe he has a great skate with lots of quads to win a silver at this event. I also dont think Lysacek lost any places by short skates other then bronze at the Olympics which is a big thing to loss obviously but not at any other event.

I think Belbin Agosto could be challenged by the beautiful young Russian team in the field.

Shen and Zhou are old now and Pang and Tong are young and powerful and stylish enough to beat them.

Edit: Spoilers do NOT go in the The Edge folder. Please keep all spoilers to the Event Folders throughout this season. Thank you.

 

[Mathman]

So, if we were to talk about any possible gender bias, the factoring of PCS is NOT really an example of that - what MIGHT be is the different number of technical elements for men and women - right?

Right. In fact, it's kind of interesting how the numbers work out. In the long program the men skate 4.5 minutes and the ladies 4. That gives the men a 12.5% greater opportunity to score points, right there. (I suppose the rationale is that the frail little ladies don't have as much stamina. :disagree: )

But the only difference in a men's and a ladies' program is one extra jumping pass. The men do 8 jumps, 4 spins and 2 step sequences, compared to the ladies' 7 jumps, 4 spins and 2 step sequences (of which one must be a spiral).

To get the full 12.5% out of the extra jump a champion male skater has to do a quad. Let's say your packed LP has a total of 72 points without the final jumping pass. Then you do a quad toe, 9.0 points. That raises your tech score by exactly 12.5% (72 to 81).

So now you need to beat the ladies by another 12.5% by doing jumps throughout that are 12.5% harder than the ladies. For instance, if a lady does 3Lz/3T (10.0 points), then the man has to do 3A/3T (11.5 points). This is 15% higher (pretty close to the target of 12.5%).

Anyway, it's fun to recompute the PCSs without the factors. Then you can say things like, Irina Slutskaya would have finished third in the men's competition ahead of Buttle and Lysacek --stuff like that

You might think that ladies ought to get higher PCSs anyway, because they are prettier. But that wouldn't be fair either, because then Yukina Ota would win every event.