The next "great one" or lack thereof

[hockeyfan228]

Trixie Schuba, who is generally considered the all-time greatest figures skater and the great Karen Magnussen, who was a fantastic free skater.

 

[alicelouise]

The next great one

Well, according to the statistics, if you win the World Junior Championship your chance of one day winning the World Senior Chamiponship is 25% (7 out of 28 )

Susie Brasher
Carolyn Skoczen
Jill Sawyer
Elaine Zayak*
Rosalyn Sumners*
Tiffiny Chin
Janina Worth
Simone Koch
Karin Hendscheke
Natalia Gorbenko
Cindy Bortz
Kristi Yamaguchi*
Jessica Mills
Yuka Sato*
Surya Bonaly
Michelle Kwan*
Irina Slutskaya*
Elena Ivanova
Sydne Vogel
Julia Soldatova
Daria Timoshenko
Kristina Oblasova
Ann Patrice McDonough
Yukina Ota
Miki Ando*
Mao Asada
Yu-Na Kim
Caroline Zhang

So far, of that list only 4 of 28, 1/7th, have won an Olympic medal. Only 1 in 28 have won Olympic Gold. Jr Worlds Champions have a 14.29% of winning an Olympic Medal. Olympic Gold, 3.58%. These stats may change after 2010. There are 3 or 4 candidates for medals.

I'm interested on how non medalists at Ladies Jr. Worlds or those who didn't win Gold at Jr. worlds fared as a comparison. Also what about those who never went to Jr. Worlds but, did well as a Senior.

Being a fan of skating for many years, I think it's best to enjoy the moment of each skater's career. Peak times are different.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Trixie Schuba, who is generally considered the all-time greatest figures skater and the great Karen Magnussen, who was a fantastic free skater.

Not to go off topic, but wouldn't Barbara Ann Scott be considered the greatest of all-time figure skaters. I saw a pictorial essay of her in an old Life Magazine. After competing the 3 tracings of any school figures, there appeared only as if 1 tracing had been made and the circles were geometrically perfect.

Joe

 

[ChrisH]

The previous 3 junior world champions, Ando, Asada, and Kim have already proven themselves in the senior ranks. Those 3 ladies combined to prevent Meissner from winning a junior world championship. Perhaps the CoP system better indentifies future champions.

Given the tremendous talent of Asada and Kim, it's hard to say that Caroline is the next great one. Perhaps the youngest of the next great three.

Average scores in the major junior events
164.20 ZhangCaroline
157.29 AsadaMao
156.30 KimYu-Na
155.50 NagasuMirai
140.41 MeissnerKimmie

Personal bests in the major junior events
179.24 AsadaMao
177.54 KimYu-Na
169.25 ZhangCaroline
163.84 NagasuMirai
148.15 MeissnerKimmie

Caroline will have an opportunity in March of 2008 to up these values and possibly become the only two-time junior world champion.


Age of junior world champions
13.07.xx KwanMichelle
13.09.14 ZhangCaroline
14.05.09 AsadaMao
15.06.04 KimYu-Na
16.00.xx SlutskayaIrina
16.02.19 AndoMiki

Age of World Champions
15.08.xx KwanMichelle
19.03.06 AndoMiki
23.01.14 SlutskayaIrina

Age of GPF champions
15.02.23 AsadaMao
15.07.xx KwanMichelle
16.03.11 KimYu-Na
20.11.xx SlutskayaIrina

Some of these ages are estimates. Asada and Kim got their World Championship medals only a few months slower than Kwan first did. Caroline got her silver and bronze GP medals only a couple of months slower than Kwan got her first silver and bronze GP medals.

 

[Mathman]

So far, of that list only 4 of 28, 1/7th, have won an Olympic medal. Only 1 in 28 have won Olympic Gold. Jr Worlds Champions have a 14.29% of winning an Olympic Medal. Olympic Gold, 3.58%.

Going the other way, here are the Junior Worlds experiences of the last three Olympic gold medalists.

Shizuka Arakawa:

1995, 8th
1996, 7th
1997, 8th (at least she was consistent!)

Sarah Hughes:

1999, 2nd (Daria Timishenko was first.)

Tara Lipinski:

1995, 4th
1996, 5th (in 1997 she was world senior champion )

In fact, 1995 was a pretty cool year. Ladies' junior worlds featured three future Olympic gold medalists:

1. Irina Slutskaya
2. Yelana Ivanova
3. Kristina Czako
4. Tara Lipinski
5. Vanessa Gusmeroli (world senior bronze, 1997)
6. Lucinda Ruh
7. Zuzanna Szwed
8. Shizuka Arakawa
9. Katerina Berankova
10. Jamie Sale
11. Alisa Drei
...
21. Julia Sebestyen (2004 European Champion )

 

[feraina]

The previous 3 junior world champions, Ando, Asada, and Kim have already proven themselves in the senior ranks. Those 3 ladies combined to prevent Meissner from winning a junior world championship. Perhaps the CoP system better indentifies future champions.

Maybe, but they didn't stop Meissner from winning a world championship.

Ok, granted, Asada & Kim weren't there to do any damage, nor were Slutskaya or Arakawa, and Cohen was as good as missing. Hmm, was Ando even at the '06 worlds?

 

[feraina]

Caroline got her silver and bronze GP medals only a couple of months slower than Kwan got her first silver and bronze GP medals.

These are very interesting stats, thanks!

So Caroline's career so far closely tracks Michelle's. Her birthdate is a couple months earlier in the year than Michelle's, but otherwise they both won their JW gold at 13, and their first GP silver & bronze at 14. At 14, Michelle also won a silver at National's. We'll see how little Caroline does in February -- silver is within her reach, but let me not jinx her!

 

[hockeyfan228]

Not to go off topic, but wouldn't Barbara Ann Scott be considered the greatest of all-time figure skaters. I saw a pictorial essay of her in an old Life Magazine. After competing the 3 tracings of any school figures, there appeared only as if 1 tracing had been made and the circles were geometrically perfect.

Joe

Schuba's though, were not only technically close to perfection, but they were twice the size of everyone else's.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Well, according to the statistics, if you win the World Junior Championship your chance of one day winning the World Senior Chamiponship is 25% (7 out of 28 )

Susie Brasher
Carolyn Skoczen
Jill Sawyer
Elaine Zayak*
Rosalyn Sumners*
Tiffiny Chin
Janina Worth
Simone Koch
Karin Hendscheke
Natalia Gorbenko
Cindy Bortz
Kristi Yamaguchi*
Jessica Mills
Yuka Sato*
Surya Bonaly
Michelle Kwan*
Irina Slutskaya*
Elena Ivanova
Sydne Vogel
Julia Soldatova
Daria Timoshenko
Kristina Oblasova
Ann Patrice McDonough
Yukina Ota
Miki Ando*
Mao Asada
Yu-Na Kim
Caroline Zhang

well caroline zhang is not eligible for senior worlds yet. so she should not be on the list.

 

[Mathman]

Hmm, was Ando even at the '06 worlds?

No.That was the deal that the Japanese Federation struck in order to head off criticism of how they handled the selection process for the Olympics. Ando went to the Olympics and Nakano kept her mouth closed and went to Worlds, LOL.

The suspicion was that the federation manipulated the results of Japanese nationals to the disadvantage of Nakano, who was coming on like gangbusters, in order that they could send Ando to the Olympics. This, supposely, would please the many corporate sponsors who had invested in Miki. Coming on the heels of the big scandal in which the top brass in the Japanese Federation had to resign in disgrace under charges of embezzlement, sweetheart contracts, etc., there was a lot of slippery business going on, LOL.

Or so it was widely spectulated.

 

[ChrisH]

Maybe, but they didn't stop Meissner from winning a world championship.

Ok, granted, Asada & Kim weren't there to do any damage ...

All true. Asada might have presented a problem.

We were speaking of world junior champions, so I wasn't trying to overlook Meissner. She did get a world junior silver medal in 2004, at 14 years and 5 months old. And in 2005, Kimmie probably prioritized Nationals, finishing on the senior ladies podium behind Kwan and Cohen with a FS that included a landed triple axel. You'd have to tell me how her overall performance there tracks with the greats. (Ah, but I see that Asada landed a triple axel at the JGPF a month prior.)