Canadian Championships: Predictions Game Round 6

[cjmorton29]

It's Canadians!!! Always so much fun!

Men: Such an interesting race, without Chan. I think Nam definitely has the upper edge, but if Kevin is in good shape he can definitely challenge. Ellady, Jeremy, Andrei and Liam can all factor in, depending on how consistently they land their jumps!

1. Nam Nguyen
2. Elladj Balde
3. Kevin Reynolds
4. Jeremy Ten
5. Liam Firus

6. Andrei Rogozine
7. Roman Sadovsky
8. Keegan Messing

Ladies: Really just a two-way battle for gold, that could go either way! Both have such exciting styles and if they can get those hard elements, it could be a real battle.

1. Gabrielle Daleman
2. Alaine Chartrand
3. Veronik Mallet
4. Kim DeGuise Leveillee
5. Madelyn Dunley

6. Roxanne Rheault
7. Michelle Long
8. Roxanne Cournoyer

Pairs: Ooohh, love this category! Obviously, first is secured, and I believe for the most part second is too. The rest is a bit more flexible, but I went off of international results and scores,and just plain guesswork.

1. Duhamel/ Radford
2. Iliushechkina/ Moscovitch
3. Seguin/ Bilodeau
4. Moore-Towers/ Marinaro
5. Purich/ Wolfe

6. Jones/ Reagan
7. Grenier/ Deschamps

Ice Dance: With first and second secured, their is some competition for bronze and also the national team. I think that Paul/ Islam will have gained some ground, but P/ I will be able to step in at the first mistake. I think either junior team could grab that national team (top 5) place, but it won't be easy. I'm not really sure, we'll find out!

1. Weaver/ Poje
2. Gilles/ Poirier
3. Paul/ Islam
4. Paradis/ Ouelette
5. Orford/ Williams

6. Bent/ Mackeen
7. Edwards/ Pang
8. Soucisse/ Tanguay

Let my Nationals begin!!

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

I was going to do like America and just predict on the Top 15. But, since the Singles categories have a smaller number of slots at only 18, I thought “well, I may not know many of them, but since I’ve gone to the bother of researching them all, I may as well just keep them all in!”

Mmmm. Deciding on the Canadian Ladies podium positions was interesting. Chartrand is ahead of Daleman in International PB’s (by 7 points), but behind her on World Ranking (albeit by only 2 places). However, the important factor for me came from looking at past results. Alaine has NEVER beat Gabrielle at Nationals.

3rd place was straightforward – it was always going to be Mallet. But after this, I hadn’t a clue. I had never seen any of them before, and there was only 1 or 2 names that I even recognised. So, it is largely based on past results at Nationals. But, it was a bit surreal that for some of them I was having to go back as far as Novice level just to get a score for them! (And for Michelle Long, I couldn’t find anything at all!)

With the Men, I always knew who my Top 6 were going to be. It was just a case of order, and whether to go with my head or my heart. In the end, it was a combination of the two.

Because of all the problems he has been having this year with his boots, and doubt about the quality of practice he has been getting as a result, I do not see Kevin as a potential champion this year. Instead, I’m going with Nam. He is such a good skater, and so likable.

The final podium position was a real dilemma – Rogozine or Firus. Rogozine is miles ahead on PB’s. Firus isn’t even on the World Standings list at the moment! (I don’t understand why). Although there is not usually much between them in their scores at Nationals, Rogozine usually comes out ahead. But, Firus was right up there with Reynolds last year in both segments, whereas Rogozine was in the pack scrapping over 4th to 8th, and eventually finished 7th. This mightn’t sound too bad, when you take into consideration how close together those 5 guys were. But then you realise that the guy who did claim 4th (Baldé) was 20 points behind Firus…

Speaking of Elladj Baldé, I couldn’t decide between him and Jeremy Ten for 5th place. I like both of them a lot. Elladj is a pure showman, and the audience always love him. But, the judges don’t seem to love him as much. As for Jeremy, apart from 2012 when he got on the podium, he always seems to finish around 6th/7th/8th. I admit that I am always going to be slightly biased because his coach is from Belfast. But his Free Skate for this season is simply beautiful. And if he has 2 clean skates, I can see him troubling Rogozine or Firus if either of them have a problem. But, given Jeremy’s disappointing GP results, I am being more cautious and putting him in 5th.

Very disappointed that there are only 7 entries in Pairs. But, it was the most straightforward of all the categories. The only dilemma I had was where to put Grenier / Deschamps. In the World Rankings, they are right in the middle between Séguin / Bilodeau and Moore-Towers / Marinaro. In terms of international PB’s, it goes S/B, and then a big gap to M-T/M and G/D. But, Grenier / Deschamps won Junior Nationals last year by 2 points over Séguin / Bilodeau.

In the end, I decided that the safest thing to do was to put Vanessa and Maxime in the middle. Even if it did mean that Kirstin and Michael ended up lower than I would have liked.

Dance was a mixed bag. Given that they are number 1 in the World Standings, Weaver / Poje should win this. That is unless something goes wrong. But a couple of nights ago, I had a dream in which Kaitlyn and Andrew featured, so I’m taking that as a good sign.

Given how well they did in the GP Series, I was always putting Gilles / Poirier next. And I knew who the next 5 couples on my list were going to be. The problem was what order to put them in. Let’s face it, they could finish in any order!

The complicating factor is that Bent / MacKeen were in Junior Nationals last year. Although they won by a large margin, their score would only have put them 8th in Seniors, but close behind both Edwards / Pang and Paradis / Ouellette.

Before their Senior GP appearances this season, the only International competitions Paradis / Ouellette had competed in were 2 Senior B’s. But then they took us all by surprise by finishing 4th in Skate America (and then 7th in Skate Canada). In the Junior GP Series this season, Bent / MacKeen and Edwards / Pang had very similar results (a 1st and a 2nd each, and then 4th and 5th respectively in the JGP Final).

Edwards / Pang got their International PB last season, and it backs up their result from last year’s Nationals last season which says that they should be behind Orford / Williams. But Bent / MacKeen earned their International PB this season, and is better than the International PB of Orford / Williams. And I like Orford / Williams, but they have been disappointing this season.

So, taking everything into consideration, I have decided that the easiest thing to do would be to just take last year’s results, and slot Bent / MacKeen into the gap where Ralph / Hill were last season, i.e. behind Orford / Williams but in front of Edwards / Pang and Paradis / Ouellette.

The rest of the field was just done by International PB’s. Of the new partnerships, I was only able to do my “average experiment” on 1 couple, as for the other new couples, only the girls had been to Nationals before. And, if their PB’s with their previous partners are anything to go by, they are only going to be fighting with each other over the minor positions anyway…

For those that are able to watch the Championships, I hope you enjoy it. And may all the competitors skate their best!

CaroLiza_fan


CANADIAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ladies

1. Gabrielle DALEMAN, CO
2. Alaine CHARTRAND, EO
3. Véronik MALLET, QC
4. Madelyn DUNLEY, CO
5. Kim DEGUISE LÉVEILLÉE, QC
6. Marianne RIOUX OUELLET, QC

Just for fun
7. Roxanne COURNOYER, QC
8. Roxanne RHEAULT, QC
9. Rachel GENDRON, QC
10. Marika STEWARD, NO
11. Eri NISHIMURA, CO
12. Julianne DELAURIER, BC/YK
13. Sandrine MARTIN, QC
14. Valérie LAVERGNE, QC
15. Marie-Gabrielle HÉMOND, QC
16. Stephie WALMSLEY, NS
17. Kira GALLANT, AB/NT/NU
18. Michelle LONG, CO


Men

1. Nam NGUYEN, CO
2. Kevin REYNOLDS, BC/YK
3. Andrei ROGOZINE, CO
4. Liam FIRUS, BC/YK
5. Jeremy TEN, BC/YK
6. Elladj BALDÉ, QC

Just for fun
7. Keegan MESSING, AB/NT/NU
8. Charles DION, QC
9. Roman SADOVSKY, CO
10. Garrett GOSSELIN, SK
11. Mitchell GORDON, BC/YK
12. Bennet TOMAN, QC
13. Leslie IP, CO
14. Jack KERMEZIAN, QC
15. Nicolas TONDREAU-ALIN, QC
16. Christophe BELLEY, QC
17. Nicolas BEAUDOIN, QC
18. Dominic RONDEAU, QC


Pairs

1. Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD, QC
2. Luba ILLYUSHESHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH, CO
3. Julianne SÉGUIN / Charlie BILODEAU, QC
4. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO, WO
5. Vanessa GRENIER / Maxime DESCHAMPS, QC
6. Natasha PURICH / Drew WOLFE, QC

Just for fun
7. Brittany JONES / Joshua REAGAN, WO


Dance

1. Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE, NO
2. Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER, CO
3. Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM, CO
4. Nicole ORFORD / Thomas WILLIAMS, BC/YK
5. Mackenzie BENT / Garrett MACKEEN, EO
6. Madeline EDWARDS / ZhaoKai PANG, BC/YK

Just for fun
7. Elisabeth PARADIS / François-Xavier OUELLETTE, QC
8. Andréanne POULIN / Marc-André SERVANT, QC
9. Mariève CYR / Benjamin BRISEBOIS-GAUDREAU, QC
10. Victoria HASEGAWA / Connor HASEGAWA, WO
11. Carolane SOUCISSE / Simon TANGUAY, QC
12. Mélissande DUMAS / Simon PROULX-SÉNÉCAL, QC
13. Catherine DAIGLE-ROY / Dominic BARTHE, QC
14. Alexa LINDEN / Jean Luc JACKSON, BC/YK
15. Jade ROBITAILLE / Philippe GRANGER, QC

 

[sequinsgalore]

My predictions

Men
1. Nam Nguyen
2. Kevin Reynolds
3. Jeremy Ten
4. Elladj Balde
5. Liam Firrus
6. Andrei Rogozine

Outside top 1-2, I think it could be in any order dependent on the form of the day(s)

Ladies
1. Gabrielle Daleman
2. Alaine Chartrand
3. Veronik Mallet
4. Kim Deguise Leveillee
5. Madelyn Dunley
6. Roxanne Rheault

Top 2 in any order is guaranteed I think, the rest I have no idea as I haven't seen much/any of them

Pairs
1. Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford
2. Julianne Séguin / Charlie Bilodeau
3. Lubov Ilushechkina / Dylan Moscovitch
4. Kirsten Moore-Towers / Michael Marinaro
5. Natasha Purich / Drew Wolfe
6. Vanessa Grenier / Maxime Deschamps

D/R is guaranteed gold. Silver and bronze is a toss-up between S/B, I/M and M-T/M2

Ice Dance
1. Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje
2. Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier
3. Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam
4. Elisabeth Paradis / François-Xavier Ouellette
5. Nicole Orford / Thomas Williams
6. Mackenzie Bent / Garrett Mackeen

Gold and silver is locked, while P/I might get some fight from P/O for bronze

 

[gopatrick]

Men
1. Kevin Reynolds
2. Nam Nguyen
3. Jeremy Ten
4. Elladj Balde
5. Keegan Messing
6. Andrei Rogozine

Ladies
1. Alaine Chartrand
2. Gabrielle Daleman
3. Veronik Mallet
4. Kim Deguise Leveillee
5. Madelyn Dunley
6. Roxanne Rheault

Pairs
1. Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford
2. Julianne Séguin / Charlie Bilodeau
3. Lubov Ilushechkina / Dylan Moscovitch
4. Kirsten Moore-Towers / Michael Marinaro
5. Natasha Purich / Drew Wolfe
6. Vanessa Grenier / Maxime Deschamps

Ice Dance
1. Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje
2. Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam (they need some push)
3. Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier
4. Nicole Orford / Thomas Williams
5. Elisabeth Paradis / François-Xavier Ouellette
6. Mackenzie Bent / Garrett Mackeen

 

[Wo|flax]

MenI think this will have a lot to do with how Nam handles it, since Kevin has the boot problems, so far Nam has shown good consistency, but it has to implode sometime. I predict the time will be now.)
1.Kevin
2.Nam
3.Elladj(upset:3)
4.Ivan
5.Liam(srry)
6.Jeremy(srry)

Ladies:
1.Chartrand (this time)
2.Daleman
3.Mallet
4.Deguise Leveillee
5.Dunley
6.Rioux Ouellet

Pairs
1.Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD
2.Luba ILLYUSHESHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH
3.Julianne SÉGUIN / Charlie BILODEAU
4.Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
5.Vanessa GRENIER / Maxime DESCHAMPS
6.Natasha PURICH / Drew WOLFE

Dance:
1.W/P
2.G/P
3.P/I
4.B/M
5.O/W
6.P/O

 

[cheerknithanson]

What do you mean by implode?

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

THIS IS YOUR NINE HOUR WARNING.

You have just 9 hours left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 10:35 EST (16:35 CET / 15:35 GMT)

What do you mean by implode?

I think WoChair is saying that Nam's good run can't continue forever, and when it does end, it will be in spectacular fashion.

Personally, I don't subscribe to this assessment.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[text_skate]

Ladies

1. Alaine CHARTRAND
2. Gabrielle DALEMAN
3. Véronik MALLET
4. Kim DEGUISE LÉVEILLÉE
5. Madelyn DUNLEY
6. Roxanne COURNOYER

Men

1. Nam NGUYEN
2. Kevin REYNOLDS
3. Elladj BALDE
4. Roman SADOVSKY
5. Jeremy TEN
6. Liam FIRUS
7. Andrei ROGOZINE

Dance

1. Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
2. Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER
3. Mackenzie BENT / Garrett MACKEEN
4. Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM
5. Elisabeth PARADIS / François-Xavier OUELLETTE
6. Madeline EDWARDS / ZhaoKai PANG

Pairs

1. Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD
2. Luba ILLYUSHESHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH
3. Julianne SÉGUIN / Charlie BILODEAU
4. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
5. Natasha PURICH / Drew WOLFE
6. Vanessa GRENIER / Maxime DESCHAMPS

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

THIS IS YOUR ONE HOUR WARNING.

You have just 1 hour left until the target time to get your predictions in, i.e. until 10:35 EST (16:35 CET / 15:35 GMT)

Sorry that this is a bit later than usual, but I was watching the American Ladies SP! (Thank you sabinfire!!!)

CaroLiza_fan

 

[gucko]

Ladies
1. Daleman
2. Chartrand
3. Mallet
4. Dunley
5. Leveillee
6. Cournoyer

Men
1. Nguyen
2. Reynolds
3. Balde
4. Sadovsky
5. Ten
6. Rogozine

Pairs
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Illyusheshkina/Moscovitch
3. Seguin/Bilodeau
4. Moore-Towers/Marinaro
5. Purich/Wolfe
6. Grenier/Deschamps

Dance
1. Weaver/Poje
2. Gilles/Poirier
3. Paul/Islam
4. Paradis/Ouellette
5. Bent/Mackeen
6. Orford/Williams

 

[satine]

Guess who had their phone alarm set, but didn't count on the battery dying in the middle of the night?

I missed the Ladies (super ironic since I score them), but please accept my predictions for the remaining disciplines

Men
1 Nam NGUYEN
2 Kevin REYNOLDS
3 Elladj BALDE
4 Andrei ROGOZINE
5 Liam FIRUS
6 Jeremy TEN
7 Keegan MESSING

Pairs
1 Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD
2 Julianne SÉGUIN / Charlie BILODEAU
3 Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
4 Natasha PURICH / Drew WOLFE
5 Vanessa GRENIER / Maxime DESCHAMPS
6 Brittany JONES / Joshua REAGAN
7 Luba ILLYUSHESHKINA / Dylan MOSCOVITCH

Dance
1 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
2 Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER
3 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM
4 Nicole ORFORD / Thomas WILLIAMS
5 Madeline EDWARDS / ZhaoKai PANG
6 Mackenzie BENT / Garrett MACKEEN
7 Elisabeth PARADIS / François-Xavier OUELLETTE

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Guess who had their phone alarm set, but didn't count on the battery dying in the middle of the night?

I missed the Ladies (super ironic since I score them), but please accept my predictions for the remaining disciplines

Ach! That's really unfortunate timing. But, at least you got the other categories in, so it is not completely lost.

And, you're not the only person to forget something. I forgot to do the post telling everybody that the target time had passed, but that predictions for each category would still be accepted up to the start of that category's SP.

Oh well, I suppose these sorts of things happen when there are 2 Championships on at once.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[silverfoxes]

MenI think this will have a lot to do with how Nam handles it, since Kevin has the boot problems, so far Nam has shown good consistency, but it has to implode sometime. I predict the time will be now.)
1.Kevin
2.Nam
3.Elladj(upset:3)
4.Ivan
5.Liam(srry)
6.Jeremy(srry)

Ivan? Did you mean Andrei?

 

[Wo|flax]

What do you mean by implode?

I was talking about his consistency, not him, I don't think he'll bomb, if I thought that Id have put him third and either jeremy or liam in second, becuase if Nam bombs one of them would totally do better. My predictions are scientific like that I just think that no one can have a clean run forever, Nam wants this a lot, especially since its within his grasp now, and I tend to be pessimistic in my armchairpseudopsych assessment of this discipline. Tldr:ignore that I was just being melodramatic

Ivan? Did you mean Andrei?

Yes that what I meant: I guess I got him confused with Righini because both their last names start with R????? I dont know how my stupid brain works, or rather fails to work


In conclusion : my only excuse is sleep deprivation and fear of missing the deadline

 

[silverfoxes]

Yes that what I meant: I guess I got him confused with Righini because both their last names start with R????? I dont know how my stupid brain works, or rather fails to work


In conclusion : my only excuse is sleep deprivation and fear of missing the deadline

It happens. I just didn't want to see someone lose out on potential points with an invalid entry...I am sure our scorers will understand!

 

[satine]

Ladies' Results



Gold- alebi, CarneAsada, CaroLiza_fan, cjmorton29, dress, Florencito, FreeAgent, gucko, inside edges, Mentalopes, rosacotton, Sandpiper, sequinsgalore, & sk8hard with 65 points!
Silver- Debrah, DiamondRain, gopatrick, invisiblespiral, nadster, Sackie, SashaJuliaSpins, sunny_stars, text_skate, tulosai, voolfee, & WoChair with 55 points!
Bronze- gallavich & Lydia1703 with 50 points!
Everyone did pretty decently! 17 out of 33 players got the podium totally right (no big surprise there)! Congratulations

Now to add everything to the online scoresheet. If you are a new player, don't be alarmed if you're not on there yet- your name needs to be added in

 

[Wo|flax]

It happens. I just didn't want to see someone lose out on potential points with an invalid entry...I am sure our scorers will understand!

Thanks though apparently I'm not getting points for it anyway not that I really expected to get much for that entire men's prediction, and I was also extremely wrong about Nam

 

[guenever]

Men's results!

Gold- Mentalopes with an amazing 70 points!
Silver- CarneAsada, guenever, and sunny_stars with 50 points!
Bronze- CaroLiza_fan, coolboogie22, invisiblespiral, lydia1703, nadster with 45 points!

Like Satine said, not everybody's name is in the spreasheet yet, don't worry about it!

 

[invisiblespiral]

Pairs' results! Everyone did really well!

Gold- WoChair, CaroLiza_Fan, and Sandpiper with 75 points!
Silver- SashaJuliaSpins, inivisiblespiral, FreeAgent, tulosai, sk8hrd, dress, Mentalopes, Sackie, nadster, Debrah, CarneAsada, cjmorton29, text_skate, and gucko with 70 points!
Bronze- satine94, guenever, gallavich, sunny_stars, leolion11, voolfie, gopatrick, and sequinsgalore with 60 points!

100% of people got 1st place correct. Everyone with 70 points predicted the exact same thing. If there are any errors, please tell me. I'm sorry if I screwed up your scores....

 

[satine]

Pairs' results! Everyone did really well!
Bronze- satine94 with 65 points!

:dance: