Sophomore Jinx?

[Lindacrow]

Ive heard this term a bunch of times when it comes to new senior skaters. Any stand out skaters who couldn't skate up to par? Is it something you believe in?

 

[slider11]

I think any skater who has a huge first year is vulnerable to less than huge the second. All the Russian baby girls are in that boat but I think that had more to do with their age and the fact that physical changes impacted year two. After winning Junior Worlds in Dance, Kaitlin Hawayek and Jean-Luc Baker had a tremendous first year in seniors. Although they were not named to the World team, they seemed poised for it this year. But Hubbell and Donahue are having in there and may have something to say about this. The biggest deterrent to Hawayek and Baker this year seems to be their SD. The Nutcracker is not suited for either and unless their coaches has done miracles, that might hold them back. Their FD to The Theory of Everything is wonderful, on the other hand, and will hopefully keep them in the running. Papadakis and Cizeron may be another example but that clearly seems to be based in her injury. The most exciting part of this is to see who can forge through a slump and come back stronger than ever. Can't wait for Europeans and US Nationals.

 

[Mathman]

I don't believe in jinxes, but this phenomenon can actually be studied from a statistical point of view. It is related to the notion of "regression toward the mean." Sometimes an athlete performs at a super-high level one year (above the average performance that his abilities would predict), then calms down to "average" the next year.

These are not precisely "sophomores," but Russian Nationals gives a good source of very young skaters riding high in a early season, then suddenly dropping.

Adelina Sotnikova was hailed as a future Olympic Champion when she won Russion Nationals in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. But the next year she dropped to third and was pushed aside by even younger future stars.

Elizaveta Tuktamysheva won Russin Nationals in 2012-2013. She was projected as a future world champion. She fell to tenth the next year.

Julia Lipnitskaia won in 2013-2014. She was going to win everything in sight through the Olympics and beyond. Next year she was ninth.

Michelle Kwan won the U.S. and World championships in 1996. This wasn't her "Freshman year" as a senior, but it kind of was. The next year she skated terribly at U.S. Nationals and was lucky to hold on to second, and also won "only" the silver at Worlds. It was more or less a lost season for her.

For ladies who debut as very young teenagers the question of changing bodies plays a role. Still, there is really nothing surprising about having a good year followed by a not-so-good year.

Interesting topic. Thanks for starting the thread.

Edited to add: Slider beat me to it while I was typing. He/she said it all in the first sentence:

I think any skater who has a huge first year is vulnerable to less than huge the second.

:yes:

 

[noskates]

The other factor IMO is those skaters that have an unexpected standout performance and win their nationals, or by some chance Worlds, usually don't have the pressure on them because they aren't expected to win. So the following year when they ARE expected to win, that has to be a huge weight on their shoulders and something that may be difficult to ignore when they take the ice. Different people handle competition in different ways. You also have to look at the skater's country and what's expected by their federations. Russia is a good example.

 

[mrrice]

I don't know if I'd call it a sophomore jinx however, Alissa Czisny had a very up and down career.

 

[heyang]

Mirai and Caroline Zhang were considered up and coming skaters. Mirai went on to finish 4th at 2010 Olympics and many thought she'd be the next US ice princess. However, between growth, injuries and some reported training issues, she is still struggling to reach the top of the podium.

I think some of the 'jinx' is because these bright newcomers get media attention. It's exciting to receive the recognition. However, when the person doesn't reach the anticipated heights of success, people start saying their failures or jinxed, etc. If anything, we are perhaps putting unreasonable immediate expectations upon these skaters who don't necessarily have the earned credentials, but just the possibility and a higher level of charisma than others.

 

[gkelly]

I think some of the 'jinx' is because these bright newcomers get media attention. It's exciting to receive the recognition. However, when the person doesn't reach the anticipated heights of success, people start saying their failures or jinxed, etc. If anything, we are perhaps putting unreasonable immediate expectations upon these skaters who don't necessarily have the earned credentials, but just the possibility and a higher level of charisma than others.

Yes, that seems to happen fairly often whenever a promising new young skater comes on the scene. People can't help projecting how great they could be if they continue improving every year. And some of them do ultimately live up to expectations, although usually with a few ups and downs a long the way.

But most either decline in performance for various reasons, or settle into a groove and remain more or less at the same level, but they're less exciting once they're a known quantity and other new skaters come along to offer the excitement of the new.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think it has to do a lot with the fact that the second full senior season (for women) tends to coincide with big changes to their bodies due to puberty. In addition, as others said, there is much more pressure to perform after a successful rookie season.

 

[sloveniangirl]

I don't believe in jinxes, but this phenomenon can actually be studied from a statistical point of view. It is related to the notion of "regression toward the mean." Sometimes an athlete performs at a super-high level one year (above the average performance that his abilities would predict), then calms down to "average" the next year.

These are not precisely "sophomores," but Russian Nationals gives a good source of very young skaters riding high in a early season, then suddenly dropping.

Adelina Sotnikova was hailed as a future Olympic Champion when she won Russion Nationals in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. But the next year she dropped to third and was pushed aside by even younger future stars.

Elizaveta Tuktamysheva won Russin Nationals in 2012-2013. She was projected as a future world champion. She fell to tenth the next year.

Julia Lipnitskaia won in 2013-2014. She was going to win everything in sight through the Olympics and beyond. Next year she was ninth.

Michelle Kwan won the U.S. and World championships in 1996. This wasn't her "Freshman year" as a senior, but it kind of was. The next year she skated terribly at U.S. Nationals and was lucky to hold on to second, and also won "only" the silver at Worlds. It was more or less a lost season for her.

For ladies who debut as very young teenagers the question of changing bodies plays a role. Still, there is really nothing surprising about having a good year followed by a not-so-good year.

Interesting topic. Thanks for starting the thread.

Edited to add: Slider beat me to it while I was typing. He/she said it all in the first sentence:



:yes:

Sotnikova won the nationals in that year.

 

[noskates]

I don't know if I'd call it a sophomore jinx however, Alissa Czisny had a very up and down career.

I just think Alissa Czisny was a very poor competitor. She had all the goods but couldn't put them together very often to skate a clean program. It's a shame because she was beautiful on the ice.

Other skaters that come to mind are Mirai Negasu and actually Josh Farris. Something always happens. And they both have such a following and such talent but it's like the fates are against them.

 

[karne]

What the flip is a sophomore?

 

[ice coverage]

What the flip is a sophomore?

In the U.S., a sophomore is a student in her/his second year of either four years of high school or four years of college.

In their first year, the students typically are called freshmen.
In their second year, they're called sophomores.
In their third year, they're called juniors.
In their fourth year, they're called seniors.

So in high school (ninth thru twelfth grades), a sophomore is a tenth-grader.

 

[karne]

........

That all seems....unncessary. Why not just say "Grade 10"?

 

[tinlizzie]

........

That all seems....unncessary. Why not just say "Grade 10"?

Because Golden411 was kind enough to make sure you understood

 

[el henry]

........

That all seems....unncessary. Why not just say "Grade 10"?

Because it's secret code Plus, it's really used heavily in college, where we have a four year for your bachelors system. And we would lose some of the best "oldies" names in pop music: the Four Freshmen, Danny and the Juniors.

Now Danny & the Juniors: I would like to see a routine to "At the Hop":agree2:

 

[ice coverage]

........ Why not just say "Grade 10"?

LOL, in the U.S., we do not say, "Grade 10."

We say: "First grade, second grade, third grade ..."

Not: "Grade 1, Grade 2, Grade 3 ..."

BTW:

- "Sophomore slump" is a more common expression to me than "sophomore jinx."
- And you might hear "frosh" as slang for freshmen.​

Gotta get you up to speed before you land on our shores. :yes:

ETA:

And students in their second year of college also are "sophomores." So "tenth-graders" would not work for them.​

 

[Mathman]

Sopho-more = wise-foolish.

The first year you are so "fresh" you don't know what's going on. The second year you think you know what's going on (wise), but you don't (foolish).

 

[gkelly]

My first elementary school went up to 4th grade. When I was in 2nd grade, I liked to imagine I was a sophomore.

 

[Mathman]

"Sophomore slump" is a more common expression to me than "sophomore jinx."

And you might hear "frosh" as slang for freshmen.

And students in their second year of college also are "sophomores."​

Besides the "sophomore slump" there is also the "freshman fifteen." This refers to the fifteen pounds that you are going to gain when you leave home for the first time and go live in a college dormitory, sending out for pizza every night. ​

 

[liv]

I gained the freshman 15... which also refers to the weight gained not only from pizza and other poor eating, but from the drinking that frosh start the first time away from home.

In Canada (ontario, anyway) we call it grade1, grade 2 etc., and don't use the terms freshman, sophomore etc., although we do use frosh for university 1st year students.