slider said:I think any skater who has a huge first year is vulnerable to less than huge the second.
I think some of the 'jinx' is because these bright newcomers get media attention. It's exciting to receive the recognition. However, when the person doesn't reach the anticipated heights of success, people start saying their failures or jinxed, etc. If anything, we are perhaps putting unreasonable immediate expectations upon these skaters who don't necessarily have the earned credentials, but just the possibility and a higher level of charisma than others.
I don't believe in jinxes, but this phenomenon can actually be studied from a statistical point of view. It is related to the notion of "regression toward the mean." Sometimes an athlete performs at a super-high level one year (above the average performance that his abilities would predict), then calms down to "average" the next year.
These are not precisely "sophomores," but Russian Nationals gives a good source of very young skaters riding high in a early season, then suddenly dropping.
Adelina Sotnikova was hailed as a future Olympic Champion when she won Russion Nationals in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. But the next year she dropped to third and was pushed aside by even younger future stars.
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva won Russin Nationals in 2012-2013. She was projected as a future world champion. She fell to tenth the next year.
Julia Lipnitskaia won in 2013-2014. She was going to win everything in sight through the Olympics and beyond. Next year she was ninth.
Michelle Kwan won the U.S. and World championships in 1996. This wasn't her "Freshman year" as a senior, but it kind of was. The next year she skated terribly at U.S. Nationals and was lucky to hold on to second, and also won "only" the silver at Worlds. It was more or less a lost season for her.
For ladies who debut as very young teenagers the question of changing bodies plays a role. Still, there is really nothing surprising about having a good year followed by a not-so-good year.
Interesting topic. Thanks for starting the thread.
Edited to add: Slider beat me to it while I was typing. He/she said it all in the first sentence:
:yes:
I don't know if I'd call it a sophomore jinx however, Alissa Czisny had a very up and down career.
What the flip is a sophomore?
........
That all seems....unncessary. Why not just say "Grade 10"?
........
That all seems....unncessary. Why not just say "Grade 10"?
........ Why not just say "Grade 10"?
"Sophomore slump" is a more common expression to me than "sophomore jinx."
And you might hear "frosh" as slang for freshmen.
And students in their second year of college also are "sophomores."