2015-2016 Ladies Power Rankings

[Shayuki]

So power rankings and not "which skaters will receive the highest scores by the judges, regardless of if they are being judged properly?". Only seniors.
I'd say that right now it's:

1. Medvedeva
2. Radionova
3. Sotnikova
4. Wagner
5. Gold
6. Asada
7. Tuktamysheva
8. Miyahara
9. Hongo
10. Sotskova
11. Lipnitskaya

So the main thing is, why is Miyahara so low? Over 180 degrees of pre-rotations on almost all of her tiny jumps that are often UR as well, of course zero calls in last GPF where she had an enormous score and had +GOEs for jumps, what? Assuming she gets >s on some of her jumps as she should, and considering her PCS really isn't that high in general, this should be around accurate. Note that this is assuming that the others are skating close to clean, due to Miyahara's consistency she will likely actually place much higher but it's not like I can actually predict who ahead of her is going to bomb and who is not. Sotnikova is only #3 because her programs are so easy but if she ups the difficulty to what she can do she is #1.

As for Mao Asada, well... She has the potential to be #1 as well but I wonder.

 

[tulosai]

I figured I'd revive this for pre-world's discussion, since A LOT has changed since I posted my thoughts on this one at the very beginning of November. At that point I had Tuktamysheva 2nd and now I wouldn't even have her on the top 10 list

My take now:

1. Evgenia Medvedeva. She's the Euros champion, has won everything she entered this season other than her B event, and other than Mao (who there is no indication can be clean/live up to her base value) she is bringing the highest potential base values among the current ladies. She has nerves of steel and is a very consistent competitor. She does occasionally make mistakes but they are small and she never lets them snowball. Her programs also present her to her best advantage, are well choreographed, and work cleverly to hide most of the weaknesses that she has. (If anyone is interested, I've moved her from the 2 spot up to #1 since November).

2. Satoko Miyahara. At the beginning of the season her PCS weren't very impressive and it seemed her jumps were really holding her back. Now she's 4CC's champion and basically it just seems like the judges have totally changed their minds. Like Medvedeva she is incredibly consistent, usually not even making small mistakes of any kind. She also has very pleasant spins and hits the nuances of the music well. While she's not my cup of tea at this point she seems to be the clear front runner for silver at Worlds. I've moved her up from #9, making her my biggest leap up the rankings.

3. Elena Radionova. She was the European silver medalist for the second year in a row and, after her 'poor' first GP event where it seemed puberty was hitting her hard, really picked up the pace and has fought her way through the rest of the season with great grit and determination. As these are 'power rankings' I struggled with the decision of whether to put her or Mao 3rd, as Mao is enormously well received by the judges even when she bombs and would finish higher than Elena if everyone was perfectly clean, but I decided that Elena's consistency relative to Mao justifies her place here for now. Her programs could use some work still (the Titanic voice overs are still not a good idea) but the judges don't seem to mind, and so here she is. I've moved he up from #7.

4. Mao Asada. She remains the only competitor with a 3A and has demonstrated this season that she can consistently hit it. Unfortunately many of her other jumps have been a problem for her, and in general her skates this season have been quite underwhelming. I am still ranking her so high for a few reasons. First, her basic skating itself remains way better than the rest of the field, and even with poor performances she continues to stack up favorably to the rest of the field on PCS. Despite her poor season, the judges do really like her and will reward her a lot if she skates well. She has also always, throughout her career, peaked toward the end of the season so I do think there is a hope that she might be able to pull it together for Worlds. I've moved her down from the #1 place since November.


5. Gracie Gold. Although she remains a total headcase, the judges continue to really really like her and give her high PCS pretty much no matter how badly she skates. Her programs this year also are very strong and suit her perfectly- if she could manage to perform them clean and with some emotion, she would be a real contender, possibly even for Gold. She could be higher on the ranking, but what holds her down is her utter inability to put two clean programs together. I've moved her down from #4 since November.

6. Ashley Wagner. Her maturity and performance ability really make her stand out among the ladies in a positive way, but she continues to struggle with UR's, does not always hit her spin levels, and is generally less favorably received by the judges than those I've ranked above her. She would need to rely on those I've listed as above her to make mistakes in order to pass them. I've moved her down 1 spot from the #5 position.

7. Rika Hongo. Her programs this year are both fun and her performance and interpretation have improved greatly. The biggest thing in her favor remains consistency, including the fact that she almost never throws away levels, however, she has unfortunately become slightly less consistent as the season has gone on. Her programs also really work for her and disguise her weaknesses quite well under pure infectious energy. Hoever, she does not have the PCS potential yet of any of the skaters I've listed as above her, or of my #8, Pogorylia, who I have listed below her simply because she is much less consistent. I've moved her down 1 from the #6 position.

8. Anna Pogorylia. Basically she sometimes lacks consistency and has ghastly falls. At this point that's her biggest weakness. When the jumps work they're beautiful, her spins have improved a lot, and so has her performance ability (like everyone else on my list I guess ) If she could up her consistency she would really really be able to move up on this list- she could definitely pass many of the people I currently have listed above her at Worlds if she is able to skate clean, even if they don't make mistakes. However, due to her consistency issues, I don't feel able to list her higher than this at this time. She is in the same spot that I had her in in November.

To me #9 and #10 are too close to call right now- you could make an argument for several skaters, from Nagasu (who won't be at Worlds though) to Park to Edmunds to maybe even Murakami or Osmond, but of people who will be at Worlds it's probably Park and Edmunds in some order. I didn't have any of these people on my top 10 list in November, so it just goes to show you- figure skating is never boring

 

[RABID]

My list is more a combination wish-list/best-list.

Ellena I just think she'll be more in command of her body and think she'll be the one more likely to come out on top compared to Evgenia
Evgeniya She'll win her share but I think others are going to challenge both her and Ellena.
Satoko Judges like her and Miss Consistency will show up once again.
Elizaveta A podium threat always
Polina One of two who will make the leap. Always consistent but now the dancer will come through.
Gracie I think she is who she is but unfortunately others are getting better
Mao I think her and Gracie are going to be sharing similar placements.
Adelina Haven't much of an opinion on her but a strong Russian field might keep her off the list entirely.
So Youn The other one of two. Along with Polina I expect So Youn to make significant strides and finally skate with some consistency.
Ashley I see her fighting to stay on the list

just saw the date and title of the thread so...... consider this my 2016/2017 ranking...

 

[Skater Boy]

I figured I'd revive this for pre-world's discussion, since A LOT has changed since I posted my thoughts on this one at the very beginning of November. At that point I had Tuktamysheva 2nd and now I wouldn't even have her on the top 10 list

My take now:

1. Evgenia Medvedeva. She's the Euros champion, has won everything she entered this season other than her B event, and other than Mao (who there is no indication can be clean/live up to her base value) she is bringing the highest potential base values among the current ladies. She has nerves of steel and is a very consistent competitor. She does occasionally make mistakes but they are small and she never lets them snowball. Her programs also present her to her best advantage, are well choreographed, and work cleverly to hide most of the weaknesses that she has. (If anyone is interested, I've moved her from the 2 spot up to #1 since November).

2. Satoko Miyahara. At the beginning of the season her PCS weren't very impressive and it seemed her jumps were really holding her back. Now she's 4CC's champion and basically it just seems like the judges have totally changed their minds. Like Medvedeva she is incredibly consistent, usually not even making small mistakes of any kind. She also has very pleasant spins and hits the nuances of the music well. While she's not my cup of tea at this point she seems to be the clear front runner for silver at Worlds. I've moved her up from #9, making her my biggest leap up the rankings.

3. Elena Radionova. She was the European silver medalist for the second year in a row and, after her 'poor' first GP event where it seemed puberty was hitting her hard, really picked up the pace and has fought her way through the rest of the season with great grit and determination. As these are 'power rankings' I struggled with the decision of whether to put her or Mao 3rd, as Mao is enormously well received by the judges even when she bombs and would finish higher than Elena if everyone was perfectly clean, but I decided that Elena's consistency relative to Mao justifies her place here for now. Her programs could use some work still (the Titanic voice overs are still not a good idea) but the judges don't seem to mind, and so here she is. I've moved he up from #7.

4. Mao Asada. She remains the only competitor with a 3A and has demonstrated this season that she can consistently hit it. Unfortunately many of her other jumps have been a problem for her, and in general her skates this season have been quite underwhelming. I am still ranking her so high for a few reasons. First, her basic skating itself remains way better than the rest of the field, and even with poor performances she continues to stack up favorably to the rest of the field on PCS. Despite her poor season, the judges do really like her and will reward her a lot if she skates well. She has also always, throughout her career, peaked toward the end of the season so I do think there is a hope that she might be able to pull it together for Worlds. I've moved her down from the #1 place since November.


5. Gracie Gold. Although she remains a total headcase, the judges continue to really really like her and give her high PCS pretty much no matter how badly she skates. Her programs this year also are very strong and suit her perfectly- if she could manage to perform them clean and with some emotion, she would be a real contender, possibly even for Gold. She could be higher on the ranking, but what holds her down is her utter inability to put two clean programs together. I've moved her down from #4 since November.

6. Ashley Wagner. Her maturity and performance ability really make her stand out among the ladies in a positive way, but she continues to struggle with UR's, does not always hit her spin levels, and is generally less favorably received by the judges than those I've ranked above her. She would need to rely on those I've listed as above her to make mistakes in order to pass them. I've moved her down 1 spot from the #5 position.

7. Rika Hongo. Her programs this year are both fun and her performance and interpretation have improved greatly. The biggest thing in her favor remains consistency, including the fact that she almost never throws away levels, however, she has unfortunately become slightly less consistent as the season has gone on. Her programs also really work for her and disguise her weaknesses quite well under pure infectious energy. Hoever, she does not have the PCS potential yet of any of the skaters I've listed as above her, or of my #8, Pogorylia, who I have listed below her simply because she is much less consistent. I've moved her down 1 from the #6 position.

8. Anna Pogorylia. Basically she sometimes lacks consistency and has ghastly falls. At this point that's her biggest weakness. When the jumps work they're beautiful, her spins have improved a lot, and so has her performance ability (like everyone else on my list I guess ) If she could up her consistency she would really really be able to move up on this list- she could definitely pass many of the people I currently have listed above her at Worlds if she is able to skate clean, even if they don't make mistakes. However, due to her consistency issues, I don't feel able to list her higher than this at this time. She is in the same spot that I had her in in November.

To me #9 and #10 are too close to call right now- you could make an argument for several skaters, from Nagasu (who won't be at Worlds though) to Park to Edmunds to maybe even Murakami or Osmond, but of people who will be at Worlds it's probably Park and Edmunds in some order. I didn't have any of these people on my top 10 list in November, so it just goes to show you- figure skating is never boring

Great analysis and I agree. I do like Miyahara but something about her jumps which sadly are a big part of her marks bother me. They are puny and yes it is hard to rotate that fast there is something disconcerting about her jumps. I literally was shocked when I watched her fs and her three jump combo - it almost looked like she was rotating the jumps on the ice (oh dear in her case I guess that can be taken many ways). For years thejudges were hard on Mirai and I think in firness they should do the same with Satoko but will they??? She is consistent.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

1. Evgenia Medvedeva. She's the Euros champion, has won everything she entered this season other than her B event, and other than Mao (who there is no indication can be clean/live up to her base value) she is bringing the highest potential base values among the current ladies.

Uhm... no, she does not. Her BV is basically the same as that of Elena, Satoko, Gracie or even Ashley (if she gets her 3-3's around). If anything it is minimally lower than some of the others. Where is that idea coming from Evgenia had a higher BV?

 

[NaVi]

Uhm... no, she does not. Her BV is basically the same as that of Elena, Satoko, Gracie or even Ashley (if she gets her 3-3's around). If anything it is minimally lower than some of the others. Where is that idea coming from Evgenia had a higher BV?

Overall it's wrong... if everyone get's their spin and step levels then Gracie and Satoko have a higher BV... but Medvedeva does have the highest SP BV. Wagner is over a point behind Mededeva in BV in the SP alone even if she gets all her levels.

 

[artsciboy]

Overall it's wrong... if everyone get's their spin and step levels then Gracie and Satoko have a higher BV... but Medvedeva does have the highest SP BV. Wagner is over a point behind Mededeva in BV in the SP alone even if she gets all her levels.

The BVs for these top skaters are really close (in the LP) - if they hit their levels, don't get edge calls or calls on rotations:

Miyahara - BV: 62.96
Gold - BV: 62.49
Wagner - BV: 62.44
Medvedeva - BV: 62.33

 

[koatcue]

The BVs for these top skaters are really close (in the LP) - if they hit their levels, don't get edge calls or calls on rotations:

Miyahara - BV: 62.96
Gold - BV: 62.49
Wagner - BV: 62.44
Medvedeva - BV: 62.33

Okay, BV is overrated as long as you jump in the second half with arm ahead as much and as clean as possible. Oh, and having 2 different 3-3s doesn't hurt too, because it's getting uniqueness in judges eyes, imo, 'cause other girls go safer way.

 

[NaVi]

Oh, and having 2 different 3-3s doesn't hurt too, because it's getting uniqueness in judges eyes, imo, 'cause other girls go safer way.

While I wish this were true, it isn't... Miyahara receives her highest GOE on her repeated 2A+3T(which tbh, she does partly because she can't really guarantee that her 3-3 are rotated)... in fact the GOE they gave her repeated 2A+3T at 4CC was practically equal to the GOE given to Medvedeva's combos at the GPF.

 

[koatcue]

I guess all we have to do is wait the competition where both of them are in and that's Worlds I believe Medvedeva should place higher if clean. It's a good thing you remembered GPF, because Zhenia blew Satoko out of water there tes and pcs wise.

 

[randomfan]

This was my list from September.
1. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
2. Mao Asada
3. Satoko Miyahara
4. Elena Radionova
5. Gracie Gold
6. Ashley Wagner
Honourable Mentions (in this order):
Evgenia Medvedeva, Yulia Lipnitskaya, Rika Hongo, Polina Edmunds, Anna Pogorilaya, Kanako Murakami, Zijun Li, So Youn Park

Here is my edited version. Probably won't be as detailed as tulosai's though. Keep in mind that I am only doing people who are going to Worlds.

1. Evgenia Medvedeva - Russia (moving up 6 places)
Evgenia did not win everything this season, but she won most of the events. I have to say, her work is very impressive being a senior for the first time. I still highly disagree with her scores, but I really agree that she is doing the best out of all the ladies this season. She has the consistency to land all those jumps with the tanos, and her spins are nice too. She will be the one to beat at Worlds.

2. Satoko Miyahara - Japan (moving up 1 place)
Like Evgenia, her consistency was one of the reasons why she has gotten this far. But she also has the spins and the artistry. The footwork is also good. Her results this season are excellent. Satoko really would have the full package if her jumps were much higher and less (visibly) pre-rotated, but she's getting there. She is one of the contenders for the world podium, and will most likely be on it if she keeps this consistency going.

3. Elena Radionova - Russia (moving up 1 place)
We all expected her growing to be a major problem for her just like it was for Yulia, but Elena proved us wrong. However, we can see in the landing of her jumps that she is fighting. I admire her for how hard she is working this season. Obviously she was (IMO rightfully) pissed at Euros, so I think that will make her be an even scarier opponent at Worlds. Even with the iffy jumps, she's still been getting overall higher scores than last season though, so if she is clean then she'll most likely be on the podium.

4. Ashley Wagner - USA (moving up 2 places)
I bet everyone is surprised to see Ashley up higher than the ones that took #5 and #6. Well, I really wanted to put her, Mao, and Gracie all in the same spot, but Ashley has had a higher FS score and overall score (twice) than Mao did since Mao wasn't as consistent as Ashley, and Ashley also has much better performances than Gracie, so Ashley just beats them. Ashley is not the type of skater to have big meltdowns anymore IMO, while Gracie and Mao (although I hate to admit this) kind of are. If Ashley sells her performances, she will likely receive the around the FS score at the GPF (or even higher because it's Boston this time).

5. Mao Asada - Japan (moving down 3 places)
Mao has been struggling a lot this season, but she is probably not wanting to end the season without a fight. After such promising skates at Japan Open and the COC SP, I think she is determined to restore her clean performances for Worlds. I'm not always with the idea of skipping 4CC for something that is not an emergency or injury, but in Mao's case I think she did need this break, and I hope she has trained hard enough for Boston.

6. Gracie Gold - USA (moving down 1 place)
Even though her SA performances weren't clean, I was sure that she would finally start to be a more consistent skater after because of how she performed there. I guess not being able to do the FS at TEB may have set her back a little, because the GPF was nearly a disaster, and so was 4CC. I enjoyed her Nationals FS, but I'm just not sure if she can replicate a performance like that again in Boston, especially since it's the most important competition in her home country with all the pressure, and I don't think how she'll be able to handle it. But by now she still has a good PCS cushion over the others, so it's just up to her to give two good performances to finally be on that podium.

Honourable Mentions
7. Anna Pogorilaya (moving up 4 places)
I don't think the taker of the third spot was announced yet, but one thing's for sure: it's Anna vs Alena. Anna had a so-so showing at COC and a disaster at NHK, missing the GPF for the first time, but she still had wonderful performances at Mordovian Ornament and Nationals. Her Euros performances weren't too bad either (definitely better than the GP showings). Anna can really be a spectacular skater when she's on, and both programs this season are the ones that can make an audience excited. If she performs well, she may snag a spot in the top 6 at Worlds.

8. Rika Hongo - Japan (moving up 1 place)
After COC, Rika started to lose some of her consistency, which was bad for her. Missing the podium at Nationals was really devastating for her, and winning the 4CC bronze after a close fight must've been tiring. Judges tend to underscore her in comparison to other skaters IF they did well, so I really don't know what to say. But like Anna, her FS is a program that can really connect with the audience greatly, and she is usually very good at performing it, so I'm not counting her out yet.

9. Polina Edmunds - USA (moving up 1 place)
Polina had a very strong showing at Nationals which was good for her after an okay GP season. She is certainly more consistent than Gracie and Ashley, but she still needs more speed, power, and some wow factors. Her SP is very good and will do the job, but her FS is just so boring and there is nothing interesting about that program AT ALL :ddevil: (sorry to people who like the program). She really needs to rely on her consistency and rotate those jumps too, since her jumps at Nationals looked pretty cringy. Polina is not one to fail from the pressure, so I'm not too worried about her, but she needs to impress the judges to have a good placement.

10. So Youn Park - South Korea (moving up 4 places - the big difference is technically only because Tuktamysheva, Li, Murakami, and Lipnitskaya are no longer on this list since by now she surpasses them for this season, so the list is out of 10 instead of 14)
So Youn's GP season was much worse than last year and Nationals was a big disastrous moment. But after her completely clean FS in the February Korean competition I think she got some confidence and ended up having a very strong showing at 4CC, just barely missing the podium by 3 points. If it wasn't for 4CC or the Korean event I honestly would've put her off the list, but now I think she is finally making a turn in her career and will no longer be the overly inconsistent skater we all knew before. South Korea's chances of 2 spots for next year's Worlds just got a lot greater.

I really wanted to put Zijun here too, but after 4CC I really think she has a big stamina issue. Even while landing the jumps in the second half, I was terrified of her making a big mistake, and I was right since she fell on the final jump. Everything in the second half looked so labored and so exhausting...she looked really sick.... I'm really worried about her, since once again she is in charge of securing 2 spots for China.

 

[koatcue]

I feel like people really underestimate Anna if she skates clean:think: She is a better version of Gracie Gold artistry wise, so if she is clean - beware everybody!

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Overall it's wrong... if everyone get's their spin and step levels then Gracie and Satoko have a higher BV... but Medvedeva does have the highest SP BV. Wagner is over a point behind Mededeva in BV in the SP alone even if she gets all her levels.

But to me it sounded as if tulosai was meaning overall BV, and not SP. Basically, Evgenia, Elena, Gracie, Anna and Satoko have pretty much the same BV, Asgley could too but she has that carrot problem.

Okay, BV is overrated as long as you jump in the second half with arm ahead as much and as clean as possible. Oh, and having 2 different 3-3s doesn't hurt too, because it's getting uniqueness in judges eyes, imo, 'cause other girls go safer way.

Eh, "jump in the 2nd half" is only better than "jump in 1st half" because of the BV bonus, so it's a bit contradicting to say BV is overrated and then argue with the backloading.
Also, if you really think having 2 different 3-3's is/should get Evgenia a boost, Elena and Anna should actually have a bigger one, because they have one 3-3T and a 3-1/2-3 combo to Evgenias 2 3-3Ts

(PS: I don't want to say Evgenia doesn't belong at #1 in that current ranking, because she does. But I'm annoyed with people 'making up' simply wrong arguments for it)

 

[tulosai]

I feel like people really underestimate Anna if she skates clean:think: She is a better version of Gracie Gold artistry wise, so if she is clean - beware everybody!

To me power rankings aren't the same as 'who would win if everyone skates clean'- there is some correlation and I do consider it, but really to me they are more strongly a measure of who's had a good season so far, who has momentum, and what's likely to happen. If I were ranking 'who wins if everyone skates clean', I'd have Mao 1st not 4th for starters.

 

[koatcue]

Eh, "jump in the 2nd half" is only better than "jump in 1st half" because of the BV bonus, so it's a bit contradicting to say BV is overrated and then argue with the backloading.
Also, if you really think having 2 different 3-3's is/should get Evgenia a boost, Elena and Anna should actually have a bigger one, because they have one 3-3T and a 3-1/2-3 combo to Evgenias 2 3-3Ts

(PS: I don't want to say Evgenia doesn't belong at #1 in that current ranking, because she does. But I'm annoyed with people 'making up' simply wrong arguments for it)

If that's the case (jumps in 2 half are counted beforehand in BV) I'm surprised Medvedeva isn't 1 just on ithwell:

 

[tulosai]

Uhm... no, she does not. Her BV is basically the same as that of Elena, Satoko, Gracie or even Ashley (if she gets her 3-3's around). If anything it is minimally lower than some of the others. Where is that idea coming from Evgenia had a higher BV?

I do stand corrected but honestly it doesn't change my overall analysis at all- even without this I'd still have her #1, for all the other reasons I listed and also because, more accurately I guess, at every competition this year other than maybe her B, her TES score has been higher than her competitors. I did assume due to the backloading of her programs that the BV was also higher, but if I'm wrong about that then I am.

 

[koatcue]

To me power rankings aren't the same as 'who would win if everyone skates clean'- there is some correlation and I do consider it, but really to me they are more strongly a measure of who's had a good season so far, who has momentum, and what's likely to happen. If I were ranking 'who wins if everyone skates clean', I'd have Mao 1st not 4th for starters.

I think the same but the number of people writing that if clean - she'll be 5-7th is just woah!

 

[Li'Kitsu]

If that's the case (jumps in 2 half are counted beforehand in BV) I'm surprised Medvedeva isn't 1 just on ithwell:

It's the other ladies repeating more difficult jumps with a higher BV - for example Elena is repeating the 3Lz and 3Lo, while Evgenia repeats the 3F and 3T. They have slightly different strengths and weaknesses, but it cancels out more or less overall (at least in regards to BV).
And the fact that NaVi bought up about the 2A-3T being no less valuable then a 3-3 is also partly the reason here (and that's something I really don't agree with either :handw: ).

 

[rollerblade]

I do stand corrected but honestly it doesn't change my overall analysis at all- even without this I'd still have her #1, for all the other reasons I listed and also because, more accurately I guess, at every competition this year other than maybe her B, her TES score has been higher than her competitors. I did assume due to the backloading of her programs that the BV was also higher, but if I'm wrong about that then I am.

The 10% bonus is already included in the BV. GOE is where Evgenia gain her edge. (she also gets higher PCS)

Elena technically should have the BV advantage in the FS because of her choice of repeated jumps, but she backloads the "wrong" jumps. Either way, the difference would be so small, whoever wins in GOE will still come out ahead in the end.

 

[Jammers]

This was my list from September.
1. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
2. Mao Asada
3. Satoko Miyahara
4. Elena Radionova
5. Gracie Gold
6. Ashley Wagner
Honourable Mentions (in this order):
Evgenia Medvedeva, Yulia Lipnitskaya, Rika Hongo, Polina Edmunds, Anna Pogorilaya, Kanako Murakami, Zijun Li, So Youn Park

Here is my edited version. Probably won't be as detailed as tulosai's though. Keep in mind that I am only doing people who are going to Worlds.

1. Evgenia Medvedeva - Russia (moving up 6 places)
Evgenia did not win everything this season, but she won most of the events. I have to say, her work is very impressive being a senior for the first time. I still highly disagree with her scores, but I really agree that she is doing the best out of all the ladies this season. She has the consistency to land all those jumps with the tanos, and her spins are nice too. She will be the one to beat at Worlds.

2. Satoko Miyahara - Japan (moving up 1 place)
Like Evgenia, her consistency was one of the reasons why she has gotten this far. But she also has the spins and the artistry. The footwork is also good. Her results this season are excellent. Satoko really would have the full package if her jumps were much higher and less (visibly) pre-rotated, but she's getting there. She is one of the contenders for the world podium, and will most likely be on it if she keeps this consistency going.

3. Elena Radionova - Russia (moving up 1 place)
We all expected her growing to be a major problem for her just like it was for Yulia, but Elena proved us wrong. However, we can see in the landing of her jumps that she is fighting. I admire her for how hard she is working this season. Obviously she was (IMO rightfully) pissed at Euros, so I think that will make her be an even scarier opponent at Worlds. Even with the iffy jumps, she's still been getting overall higher scores than last season though, so if she is clean then she'll most likely be on the podium.

4. Ashley Wagner - USA (moving up 2 places)
I bet everyone is surprised to see Ashley up higher than the ones that took #5 and #6. Well, I really wanted to put her, Mao, and Gracie all in the same spot, but Ashley has had a higher FS score and overall score (twice) than Mao did since Mao wasn't as consistent as Ashley, and Ashley also has much better performances than Gracie, so Ashley just beats them. Ashley is not the type of skater to have big meltdowns anymore IMO, while Gracie and Mao (although I hate to admit this) kind of are. If Ashley sells her performances, she will likely receive the around the FS score at the GPF (or even higher because it's Boston this time).

5. Mao Asada - Japan (moving down 3 places)
Mao has been struggling a lot this season, but she is probably not wanting to end the season without a fight. After such promising skates at Japan Open and the COC SP, I think she is determined to restore her clean performances for Worlds. I'm not always with the idea of skipping 4CC for something that is not an emergency or injury, but in Mao's case I think she did need this break, and I hope she has trained hard enough for Boston.

6. Gracie Gold - USA (moving down 1 place)
Even though her SA performances weren't clean, I was sure that she would finally start to be a more consistent skater after because of how she performed there. I guess not being able to do the FS at TEB may have set her back a little, because the GPF was nearly a disaster, and so was 4CC. I enjoyed her Nationals FS, but I'm just not sure if she can replicate a performance like that again in Boston, especially since it's the most important competition in her home country with all the pressure, and I don't think how she'll be able to handle it. But by now she still has a good PCS cushion over the others, so it's just up to her to give two good performances to finally be on that podium.

Honourable Mentions
7. Anna Pogorilaya (moving up 4 places)
I don't think the taker of the third spot was announced yet, but one thing's for sure: it's Anna vs Alena. Anna had a so-so showing at COC and a disaster at NHK, missing the GPF for the first time, but she still had wonderful performances at Mordovian Ornament and Nationals. Her Euros performances weren't too bad either (definitely better than the GP showings). Anna can really be a spectacular skater when she's on, and both programs this season are the ones that can make an audience excited. If she performs well, she may snag a spot in the top 6 at Worlds.

8. Rika Hongo - Japan (moving up 1 place)
After COC, Rika started to lose some of her consistency, which was bad for her. Missing the podium at Nationals was really devastating for her, and winning the 4CC bronze after a close fight must've been tiring. Judges tend to underscore her in comparison to other skaters IF they did well, so I really don't know what to say. But like Anna, her FS is a program that can really connect with the audience greatly, and she is usually very good at performing it, so I'm not counting her out yet.

9. Polina Edmunds - USA (moving up 1 place)
Polina had a very strong showing at Nationals which was good for her after an okay GP season. She is certainly more consistent than Gracie and Ashley, but she still needs more speed, power, and some wow factors. Her SP is very good and will do the job, but her FS is just so boring and there is nothing interesting about that program AT ALL :ddevil: (sorry to people who like the program). She really needs to rely on her consistency and rotate those jumps too, since her jumps at Nationals looked pretty cringy. Polina is not one to fail from the pressure, so I'm not too worried about her, but she needs to impress the judges to have a good placement.

10. So Youn Park - South Korea (moving up 4 places - the big difference is technically only because Tuktamysheva, Li, Murakami, and Lipnitskaya are no longer on this list since by now she surpasses them for this season, so the list is out of 10 instead of 14)
So Youn's GP season was much worse than last year and Nationals was a big disastrous moment. But after her completely clean FS in the February Korean competition I think she got some confidence and ended up having a very strong showing at 4CC, just barely missing the podium by 3 points. If it wasn't for 4CC or the Korean event I honestly would've put her off the list, but now I think she is finally making a turn in her career and will no longer be the overly inconsistent skater we all knew before. South Korea's chances of 2 spots for next year's Worlds just got a lot greater.

I really wanted to put Zijun here too, but after 4CC I really think she has a big stamina issue. Even while landing the jumps in the second half, I was terrified of her making a big mistake, and I was right since she fell on the final jump. Everything in the second half looked so labored and so exhausting...she looked really sick.... I'm really worried about her, since once again she is in charge of securing 2 spots for China.

Not sure about Ashley not having meltdowns considering how she skated at NHK when she didn't even medal and lost to of all people Courtney Hicks.