Channel One Cup: Jump Fest

[yume]

For me Daria had the best skate. She has really warmed up to the choreo now, the ina bauer in time with the music was gorgeous. Even though Kamila landed that 3a, the execution of choreo was not as good. Because of the concentration on the 3a, she's not listening to the music as much and she misses musical cues or is not as sharp as it should be. Which is sad because the choreo has tons of them. Even in the step seq, she's kinda off for that 2 piano notes where she flicks her hand . Its just not as good as it first looked in the test skate. I hope Kamila keeps the SP so that she is able to perform the choreo to the max with the clean 3a. Maybe then it might be worth close to 90

The fact that she does basically nothing after her first spin, when there is a musical accent, is a waste.

 

[chasingneverland]

Liza has easier layouts compared to Alyona, though. And she has less PCS, less clean competitions under her belt. She's basically a wildcard.

True. Aliona's strength isn't actually her 3A. It's her execution, skating skills, and performance quality.

 

[Jontor]

Alina's team would definitely always win the ladies' portion. I think we'll have to see what happens in the other three disciplines tomorrow. Men and Dance could make a good difference for Team Zhenya. With this inflation, Kolyada alone could net them 30-40+ points, if clean. But that's all for tomorrow.

Yes, especially the Men will be important tomorrow. That's where the big differences in points lies. All these men can easily score in a range of 40+ points depending on how/if they land their quads and 3A's.

 

[chasingneverland]

Anna's max for high value elements across both program is 4Lz, 4Lz, 4F. Kamila could be doing 4T, 4T, 4S, 3A, 3A next year. Anna does have the +3Lo combo too but it doesn't make up the 3A difference, and Kamila having a big lead after the SP will already frame her as the one to beat.

True although considering Kamila has never attempted the 4S or 3A in the free in competition I'm not counting that. I'm sure Anna will have upgrades too.

Also, keep in mind that Anna has erased Aliona's 3A SP leads before. Plus Anna will be a 3 time RusNats champion as well as proven on the senior level when they meet.

I'm not saying it won't happen. I think it might - and I love love love Kami - but I don't think it's a given.

 

[lariko]

maybe i'm just being too optimistic but I'm still holding out for a Team Zhenya victory!!

I don’t think it was in the cards, but it’s an amazing celebration of the figureskating nonetheless

 

[chasingneverland]

Honestly, I think the bigger thing isn't Kamila dethroning Anna it's her dethroning Aliona. Kamila has most of Aliona's strengths and a quad on top of that.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Alina's team would definitely always win the ladies' portion. I think we'll have to see what happens in the other three disciplines tomorrow. Men and Dance could make a good difference for Team Zhenya. With this inflation, Kolyada alone could net them 30-40+ points, if clean. But that's all for tomorrow.

It's still me being optimistic but I don't think it's a given that Alina will win ladies.
It's very likely, probably around like 90-95% or something but... if Zhenya's girls go clean they have all the power to challenge. Content wise you've got this:
4 quads (i think sasha is doing 2?) + 2 3As vs 4 quads
of course neither maiia nor liza are consistent with their ultra-c's but if that like 1% possibility of them going clean happens (which I am hoping it will) they can take the lead.

In pairs it's a bit of strange situation. Overall clean team zhenya (both b/k and m/g have very high scoring potential as seen by stage 4 and rostelecom) > clean team alina (t/m will get high scores but p/k is always judged kind of harshly IMO). But with how pairs has been it might be just about equal in terms of probability.

I don't know anything about mens nor ice dance to guess.

 

[coldblueeyes]

I don't know anything about mens nor ice dance to guess.

Dance is a sure win for Zhenya. Men? Hard to guess. Could go either way, because you just never know.

 

[Thrashergurl]

I think today Kamila proved she is Russia’s #1. Wow!

 

[Dawn825]

I think today Kamila proved she is Russia’s #1. Wow!

Not really. If her and Anna skate clean tomorrow, Anna will come out on top.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I'm sure Anna will have upgrades too.

Why are you sure about that? She's already doing less this season than she attempted last season, while Kamila is a younger skater who keeps adding more. Kamila is frankly just more talented too, Shcherbakova didn't have these lines and skating skills at the same age.

 

[emmaleemochizuki]

Please change that Bolero FS for KV next season.

I just can't fall in love with it, just can't. Would love her to keep that SP though.

Could it be possible that the team decide to give KV a different programme even though Danill said they are keeping it? I mean a lot of weird things happened earlier in the season so anything can happen...

Please a different programme!!!!!

 

[Skatesocs]

Why are you sure about that? She's already doing less this season than she attempted last season, while Kamila is a younger skater who keeps adding more. Kamila is frankly just more talented too, Shcherbakova didn't have these lines and skating skills at the same age.

I agree, and better spins too, though I think Anna has a tad more musical sensitivity (but not the versatility - I'd wager Valieva is more able in those terms). And Eteri keeps them coming... have you checked out Akatieva and Petrosyan? They're already showing better performance ability than Valieva at the same age, IMO.

 

[Seven Sisters]

Dance is a sure win for Zhenya. Men? Hard to guess. Could go either way, because you just never know.

Point well taken as to Dance. As I watched this I was struck by how well balanced the teams were, how neither could really be said to have an advantage—except in Dance. Space Team really is blessed with the dominant lineup there. I have to assume that Sinitsina/Katsalapov, had they competed, would have been slated for Red Machine, to even things out.

 

[alexocfp]

Did anyone keep a tally of which team stole the most ice cream?

They need a bigger freezer for tomorrow. Haha

 

[Skatesocs]

Did anyone keep a tally of which team stole the most ice cream?

Doesn't really matter, Yabolokov's gonna sneak into their rooms in the night and eat it all.

 

[katymay]

I think today Kamila proved she is Russia’s #1. Wow!

I think it is more about having that triple axel in the short. My feeling is the Olympics will come down to that one jump-and if not this Olympics, than post 2022-as seen from the Russia junior results. Land it-you are in the top group going into the long. Miss it, or not include it, you will not be in the top group for the FS, which means you go into the FS at a disadvantage. I do think the Oly gold is between Kamila and Anna.

 

[Mawwerg]

It's crazy she's only been able to go to Worlds twice.

Even crazier, is that Kostornaia might never go to Worlds ever.

Kostornaia is still competitive. Even return of her last season form will be enough for it.

 

[alexocfp]

On paper, Kamila has the feel of an Olympic champion elect. But, on paper and how things actually unfold are 2 different things.

Because you can’t ever count Anna out.

 

[Magill]

Kostornaia is still competitive. Even return of her last season form will be enough for it.

Yeah, but the Worlds even happening this season is not a given and who knows what happens next year (no one could have predicted this one the way it went, for sure...)