Ice Dance Predictions

[skatingbc]

I thought it might be interesting to have a prediction thread devoted to one discipline and since I'm most excited to watch the dance competition at Worlds, I thought dance might be a good place to start.

I think this competition will be the most interesting and hard to predict due to injuries that have plagued the top teams. I love that Davis/White have stepped up this year. I hadn't watched them too much before this year, but wow. I hope that Virtue/Moir will have improved their free dance since 4CC. Their performance at 4CC was already a huge improvement in comparison to Nationals so I have doubt they will come Worlds!

DelShoes look like they'll be out...what about DomShabs? I'm glad that Belbin/Agosto are competing, simply for the competition itself. Not a big fan of them, or K/N, F/S for that matter...

I'm hoping that V/M, D/W medal. I have a feeling K/N will be on the podium as well, barring any major disasters. It seems like there are so many top teams that could medal with a clean competition. I really think that Dance will be the most exciting competition at Worlds!

 

[Buttercup]

You're right - ice dance is really difficult to predict, in part due to a positive reason (many good teams) and in part because of all the unfortunate injuries. With that in mind, and assuming DelSchoe are out and everyone else is in:

1. K/N. I'm not a huge fan, but they are very good. They dominated at Euros, did very well at CoR, and are also pretty consistent and the the only top team from last year that's been injury free so far this season (the GPF being a case of stomach flu rather than anything serious, I believe).

Silver and bronze: I think any of the following teams could medal: D/S, V/M, D/W, F/S, and, as an outside shot, P/B.

DomShabs are probably not in great shape and I'm not sure the judges will be as enthusiastic about them compared to the past. V/M have not looked their best so far, and again there's an injury issue, but both teams could contend anyway. D/W are on the rise, personally I don't get them at all, but they have probably done enough this year to pull ahead of B/A and to be viewed as serious contenders - though not for silver, I think. F/S I don't get either, but they seem to be getting good results so I'll count them in. P/B have been improving all season and their FD has gotten very good marks. They may also benefit from being the top French team this time (I hope P/B and C/J will do enough to have three French teams in Vancouver) so I think they might sneak onto the podium.

Two other good teams don't strike me as major contenders: The Kerrs are as always fantastic, but I don't believe it's going to happen for them. B/A, I think, will suffer from the comparison to what will likely be perceived as a more exciting American team.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

As I have said so often, the scores in Ice Dance are based on errors in the program. I also believe there is a touch of bias towards certain nationalities, and some judges look for their personal favorites and score accordingly. The cynic that I am.

It's because all those top teams do an excellent job if there are no mistakes. So without Del/Sch in the mix, I will pick Khoklova/Novitsky, Virtue/Moir, and Belbin/Agosto. in some order on the podium.

 

[skatingbc]

I tend to think that this is Khoklova/Novitsky's to lose. They haven't been plagued by injuries all season, except if you call that illness an injury, and should have momentum coming off of their Euros win.

I've never really liked F/S that much either. I much prefer Cappellinni/Lanotte.

This competition is going to be fun to watch. There are a lot of top skaters at this event and cracking the top 10 looks like it will be a feat in itself!

 

[Michelle'sFan]

This will be a real good competition, at least for dance. Good topic.

V/M, D/W, and B/A will all be in at least the top 5. I am hoping B/A and V/M hit the podium (I'd be thrilled if either actually won ) but know they have plenty of competition.

I am not famlier with Khoklova/Novitsky but reading a little about them, they seem to be the team to beat. Anything is possible but most of it depends on who is at their best and who is not on the night of the program.

Michelle'sFan

 

[cotillion]

I'm going with Khokhlova & Novitski all the way , second and third are up for grabs when you consider in Davis & White, Virtue & Moir, Faiella & Scalli,Kerr & Kerr, Pechalat & Bourzat,, I guess I could put Belbin & Agosto, and Domnina & Shabalin in the mix but really don't think they are in good enough shape . I think the young teams like Crone & Poirier, Samuelson & Bates, Cappellini & Lanotte,Carron & Jost, are just going to have to wait yet to get near the podium .My pick for a spoiler this year, who might stir things up a bit are Zadorozhniuk & Verbillo, they finished 7th at Euros, and could be in the top 12 mix, just a little fun thinking about who the up and comers are!

 

[Ptichka]

1) K&N
2-3) V&M, D&W
4-5) B&A, Do&Sh
6) K&K
7-8)P&B, F&S
9) C&L
10-12) C&J, C&P, S&B
13)F&L

 

[salomonka]

1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Khokhlova/Novitski

 

[Medusa]

If an NA-team wins, then please - p l e a s e - Davis/White. B/A look fake and so, I don't know, like people from all those US-American High-Society TV-series. And I don't like their freedance at all, that's not Tosca - that's looking handsome / pretty to some highly emotional Opera that they don't seem to understand in my opinion. Virtue and Moir I enjoy more because of their musicality and ethereal quality over the ice - but they also look kind of constructed, I never have the feeling that they look free out there.

I also don't want to see those Italians anywhere near the podium, what's their name, Faiella/Scali? They are also kind of fake and overly artificial. Cappellini/Lanotte I love, such purity and innocence to their skating.

Pechalat/Bourzat - hmm. I don't really dislike them, like I do B/A or F/S. But something puts me off, perhaps a certain lack of chemistry between them? Their freedance is fun, he is so handsome in a more edgy way, I love her costume choices - but no, not a favourite of mine. They are allowed to make Top Five though.

I strongly dislike Domnina/Shabalin because they are fake. Like lots of Russian dance teams in the past (just my opinion of course). They are not American-Barbie-doll fake (like Belbin), but just overdone, the emotions they are portraying seem overdone, their movements... K/N are much fresher, their technique may not be as perfect but there is an obvious joy to their skating, I love their acrobatic moves - and she is so fierce.

My dream podium would include K/N, D/W and Kerr/Kerr in any order.

My prediction is this

1. Virtue / Moir (duh, Olympics in Canada? they can probably trip several times and still win this)
2. Belbin / Agosto (there won't be a Number One American Girl entering the ladies' competition at the Olympics - so America needs another skating beauty in another discipline)
3. Domnina / Shabalin (judges' pets)

But then again, I know nothing about ice-dance. Which is probably obvious to everyone since the only thing I said about the couples is fake versus not-fake.

 

[Mathman]

But then again, I know nothing about ice-dance. Which is probably obvious to everyone since the only thing I said about the couples is fake versus not-fake.

That is actually quite interesting, because all ice dancing -- in common with all performing art -- is fake. The soprano who plays Cio-Cio-San in Madame Butterfly doesn't really kill herself, she fakes it.

You could look at Belbin and Agosto's style as "kitsch" or "camp" -- deliberately looking like they are faking it.

 

[Tammi]

1. Belbin/Agosto
2. Khokhlova/Novitski
3. toughest to predict the final podium spot, will be either Davis/White, Virture/Moir or Domnina/Shabalin

 

[skatefun]

v/m
k/n
d/w

 

[Alicja]

But then again, I know nothing about ice-dance. Which is probably obvious to everyone since the only thing I said about the couples is fake versus not-fake.

Hmm...you're being so negative. Do you really dislike the teams you mentioned that much?

 

[visaliakid]

I would not even attempt to make a prediction for this discipline...it is the most wide open it has ever been for podium spots. I will offer who I would love to see medal:

1. Davis and White
2. Belbin and Agosto
3. The Kerrs

Do I think this will happen? Not in a million years!

 

[museksk8r]

1. Khokhlova/Novitski
2. Davis/White
3. Virtue/Moir

 

[lmarie086]

But then again, I know nothing about ice-dance. Which is probably obvious to everyone since the only thing I said about the couples is fake versus not-fake.

Even so, good analysis.

I'm predicting a podium of K/N, B/A and V/M (in that order actually). With DelSchoes out (I'm going to miss them so much!), it's K/N's to lose and barring any major disaster, I think they'll win.
B/A have sounded really optimistic and she especially has noted that she's been working more on extension and such (which she's really needed to, so I'm glad she's addressing that). Could definitely see them on the podium.
V/M...they haven't been at their best, which is understandable, but by the way they nearly won 4CC's while clearly out of shape makes me think they'll still be on the podium. So hopefully they have better performances.
As a fan I'd love to see D/W on the podium, but I think they'll be 4th. Yes there is some excitement about them, but they're a young team yet and I'd rather they not land on the podium until they've improved in certain areas of their skating.

5/6 I'd really like to see go to the Kerrs and Pechalat/Bourzat. Personally I'd love to see the Kerrs win the whole thing, but that's not going to happen. So I pick them for 5th.

I'd LOVE to see Cappellini/Lanotte finish ahead of Faiella/Scali but, highly unlikely. I'll settle for them being in the top 10, ahead of the teams just up from juniors...so that's 7/8 so far.

I've been really impressed with Zadorozhniuk & Verbillo, I'd like to see them in the top 10 as well.

Samuelson/Bates and Crone/Poirier will be fighting for top 10,I see them 10-12.

Oh I forgot DomShabs. I still think they shouldn't go, but since they intend to and if they don't withdraw, with the way they've skated this season I'd say 6th. I could see them in 4th too as well though.

 

[Tinymavy15]

I predict a medal of Davis and White for sure. They have finally gained the respect of the international judges and thier programs this year are excellent. I think that Virtue and Moir will have a lot of the kinks out of th freedance by then and hopfully Tessa will be stronger, but I can't see them winning this year. If Domina and Shabalin competet I think they will win and i predict Belbin and Agosto to skate below par and fininsh in 4th again. maybe 3rd.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Medusa

But then again, I know nothing about ice-dance. Which is probably obvious to everyone since the only thing I said about the couples is fake versus not-fake.

Good post Medusa. I don't know that much about Ice Dance except there are a few tricks (Twizzles, for example, and No over the head lifts (what do I care), and assorted 'shoot the ducks' which everone gives an ahhh for. All those senior dance teams have all those tricks. The rest is all caught in the spectators eyes. Much credit I give is to the choreographers whose interesting patterns win me over.

Virtue/Moir are an emotional team to view not only in looks but in body movements. Khoklova/Novitski have such innovations with spirit it's like calling them the new wave. I am anxious to veiw Carron and Jost who will not imitate Piaf but skate as fans of Piaf would dance to her voice.

Of course, there are always The Kerrs, who entertain me no end.

 

[skatergirl45]

So, B/A have the most experience, world medals, etc. etc. That will help them. They have been training hard, but they missed the GPF, Nats, and 4CC. However, missing those allowed them to train harder. Their weakness is the comp. and Del/Shoes aren't competing, and they are the best at the CD. So, that helps them out again. B/A also tend to be good at the OD. However, their FD is okay. I liked them more when they did more story-type programs, but since they've been working AND with new coaches, new perspective, they could do well.

D/W have had a stellar season. They have the momentum going into the comp. They also have confidence, which is a big factor in ice dancing. I'm not crazy about their programs. However, with B/A and V/M back in the mix, I feel like they might be not favored as much with the judges, but 4CC may have changed that.

V/M have not had the greatest season. I feel like they are still trying to regain lost ground. So, they know that they are not the favorites. That plays into their confidence issue. They also have nothing to loose because they have not had as much ice time as other teams this season. I assume they will give all they have, as always, and just wait and see what will happen.

I personally dislike K/N. I find them WAY too frantic and unpolished. However, they have momentum, confidence and a great record this season. They are also Russian, which helps in the judge's eyes. I believe they have never been the front runner for an event, so I'm not sure how they will handle that pressure.

Dom/Shabs, again I do not like, but they are Russian, which helps with the judges. Countrymen K/N are obviously ahead of them, which might hurt confidence and who knows how they REALLY feel about being with B/A.

So, K/N will most likely be in the top 2, with B/A being in the top 3, D/W, V/M, and Dom/Shabs rounding out the top five.

But in this crazy sport, you never know.

 

[LeCygne]

Well I guess I'm one of the few Belbin/Agosto fans here...They've had a rough time pretty much ever since the last Olympics. Last year should have been their year but that costly mistake in the CD... Now I really hope they're skating as well as they've said in recent interviews, but I've learned not to get my hopes up too much. Nevertheless, I hope they prove me wrong.

I really like Davis/White's FD this year. Good for them to win Nationals and 4CC, I hope they do really well at Worlds. Overall I like this team, but I'll remain loyal to B/A as long as they're competing. Same thing for Virtue/Moir. They had a fantastic season last year and their FD last year was to die for. The injury is a pity but hopefully they've recovered/improved more since 4CC.

As for the European teams, I'm not really a fan of any of them, but I would pick Domnina/Shabalin if I had to (and not just because I can actually spell their names!). Too bad the French can't make it, but I don't really feel anything for them. And from what I saw last season, I really don't like K/N. They seem too frantic, just not what I picture ice dance being.

So yeah, not too sure about predictions...