- Joined
- Nov 16, 2005
She needs to add some choreography and transitions to her LP.
Basically I take the top 3 and give point values of 15,10, 5. Everything else gets zero points. Polina Edmunds has the unique distinction of showing up in 2 of the top 3 spots for one category, I will award her the average of the two rankings (will do the same for others in a similar situation).
Hi, Mrs. P. Thanks for all your number-crunching in this thread and many others.
But .. averaging the two rankings in the same category for Edmunds does not make any sense to me. Doesn't it penalize her?
At the very least she deserves for her higher ranking to be counted, IMHO.
And TBH, I do not understand why she does not deserve for both rankings to be counted in full. Yes, it would mean that she would receive the lion's share of the points for that category -- but to me, that would be a fair reflection of her consistent superiority.
(I am not familiar enough with Nate Silver's work to know whether similar situations come up in the types of data that he analyzes, and if so, how he handles them.)
@Mrs. P Is Mirai honestly under all those people in all those categories or did you just not include her? Surely she is doing better than Zhang
Good question, golden411. I was back and forth on it. I think at the time, I felt that Polina had a distinct advantage because she did two JGP events while the others only had one GP under their belts, so it was my attempt to handicap this.
But I can see a case for giving her all the points for now. So I'm going to change it.
I only included GP and JGP events in my calculations, though I'm thinking that it probably wouldn't hurt to include Senior Bs as well for the sake of progression. I'll update it with the NHK scores, so Mirai will be on there!
ETA: Heck, let's just go with it! Adding Senior B Scores. Disclaimer, technical panels vary, so it's not a a perfect comparison, but gives you a sense what each skater is capable of. Basically Courtney and Polina can be X factors due to high FS TES scores, but Christina is solid all the way around. Judges seem to like Samantha's style and Angela is still a factor as well. Mirai is not on the board yet, but you can't ignore that she gets decent PCS. I expect that she'll get on the board after NHK. Agnes performance so far does not reflect her bronze medal status in the U.S. ....
So trueAnything is possible. But I don't think she has a very high chance at this point.
I was thinking how it is kind of ironic Gracie is now with Frank, moving from Chicago to train with him, and Mirai used to commute 2 hours to train with him, but didn't end up moving closer and the commute took it's toll and then she ultimately split from him. For that, and other reasons, of course. I just don't see her getting back to the level she was at with Frank.
Anything is possible. But I don't think she has a very high chance at this point.
I was thinking how it is kind of ironic Gracie is now with Frank, moving from Chicago to train with him, and Mirai used to commute 2 hours to train with him, but didn't end up moving closer and the commute took it's toll and then she ultimately split from him. For that, and other reasons, of course. I just don't see her getting back to the level she was at with Frank.
Goes to show the Gold family has the means the Nagasu family does not, that's all.
Or that Gracie is willing to do more to achieve her goals. IIRC, FrankC offered to find a family for Mirai to live with and she/her family refused.
I always have a soft spot for Mirai. Even if the boot issues are what contributed to her bad skate at NHK, I'm happy that she didn't make the excuse after she finished.
Am reacting to these two posts without having read the entire thread, so apologies if I have missed the full context.
I do not think it is fair at all to frame the comparison of the Nagasu/Gold/Carroll situations as Gold is "willing to do more to achieve her goals."
Gold moved to California with her mother, twin/best friend Carly, and their dog. They all live together as a family in a home of their own. (I do not mean that they bought their residence, for I do not know whether they did. I mean that non-family members are not under the same roof.)
Nagasu chose not to live away from her entire family. Gold lives away from her father (and even back in Illinois, the Gold women lived away from him during the week, for training purposes).
This. I also got the impression (sorry if this is too speculative, it was based on something at the time but it was well over a year ago and I can't recall) that Nagasu's parents were not willing to let her go live with another family even if/though she expressed interest in this. Some people thought at the time, (and perhaps still think) that Nagasu, then 18, was an 'adult' and should tell her mom and dad to shove it and move on down to Frank. To me, this showed a startling lack of awareness or understanding of several things, from why someone might not want to basically be cut off from their parents for any reason (especially at such a relatively young age) to how mature most 18 year olds realistically are now, to the fact that Nagasu is still financially dependent on her parents (the answer to that one was get a part time job, do ANYTHING to achieve the goal but when skating is already a full time job, that is much easier said than done).
Well put. I've also read reports of Mirai waitressing at her parent's restaurant. They may just not be able to let her go in part because she is needed to help with the family business. It's hard and other skater's families have greater means but sometimes those are just the breaks. I'm sure it hurt Mirai to lose funding too once she dropped in the rankings.
Before she skated her long program she did a few beautiful triples so I'm not sure if she had boot issues she could even do those. Her problem is that she lacks confidence.
Or that Gracie is willing to do more to achieve her goals. IIRC, FrankC offered to find a family for Mirai to live with and she/her family refused.
IF her mother was still fighting thyroid cancer, I can understand why Mirai wouldn't have wanted to be away from her family. Gracies's mother and sister went with her to California. Mirai's mother could not do that because she is needed to run the family business. Gracie had a much easier decision to make than Mirai did. I suspect Mirai made the correct one. OT Until recently I didn't realize that Mirai's parents are not citizens of the United States.