Everyone is writing off Sotnikova and Asada

[Big Deal]

In a perfect day (means when everybody skates cleanly with their A game) as far as I've seen it the best skaters are, and the order will be:
1.Yu-Na
2.Mao
3.Kostner or Suzuki

If any of the above mentioned ones falters then there are 3 talented young one's can land ANYWHERE in the podium:
-Julia Lipnitskaya
-Gracie Gold
-Adelina Sotnikova
in the given order.

Gracie Gold has skated like a CHAMPION of any kind of competition in the US Championships.
Julia also skated like a CHAMPION of any kind of competition in the Euro.

 

[pangtongfan]

Yes, I have mixed feelings, but I think the comparison to Yuna will impact Julia more than Adelina because Adelina jumps big too. I would love Adelina to score 75 but it's not going to happen with a 3T-3T probably.

The way the comparision to Kim would look worst for Adelina though IMO is her toe jump technique, especialy on the lutz and flip, is downright ugly compared to Kim, and she doesnt land jumps with a smooth running edge and great flow (atleast not consistently) like Kim does. That plus she doesnt skate with the same speed, and her disorganized and frivilious use of arms programs (god who is her choreographer, she could so much better with a real one IMO) look worse next to the very well put together and subtle programs without the excess baggage in them that Kim has, even the ones that are boring like her LP. Anyone that is just my opinion.

 

[pangtongfan]

In a perfect day (means when everybody skates cleanly with their A game) as far as I've seen it the best skaters are, and the order will be:
1.Yu-Na
2.Mao
3.Kostner or Suzuki

If any of the above mentioned ones falters then there are 3 talented young one's can land ANYWHERE in the podium:
-Julia Lipnitskaya
-Gracie Gold
-Adelina Sotnikova
in the given order.

Gracie Gold has skated like a CHAMPION of any kind of competition in the US Championships.
Julia also skated like a CHAMPION of any kind of competition in the Euro.

I am 95% certain at this point if it is an all clean competition (not that we will ever see that) Kostner will not medal (amazing to now be saying that considering the pre season views, some even thinking she could beat a clean Kim, lol). That is particularly bad news for her, as she is probably the least consistent of the top 6 or 7 contenders to boot. In short it will be a minor miracle if she medals at this point, but she does have the experience so despite her inconsistent rep who knows she might limit her mistakes better than most. That is the only way she wil medal. Actually she would also be more likely to beat others (besides Kim) with similar or even slightly more mistakes than if all went clean as she is inferior technically if all go clean, but her PCS are more likely to be held up even with mistakes than most of the others who will plunge if they make mistakes. Lastly with her last 2 nightmarish Olympic performances, maybe she is due for one of her best ever performances everywhere at her 3rd as a trade off, and one she will happily be joyful and be relieved she created that karma for herself with those past 2 awful ones for if that is the case.

 

[sky_fly20]

10% , Sotnikova will headcase in the Free Skate

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

10% , Sotnikova will headcase in the Free Skate

Aren't you the one who said she should also stop doing triple flips because she will never be able to do them consistently?

 

[minze]

In a perfect day (means when everybody skates cleanly with their A game) as far as I've seen it the best skaters are, and the order will be:
1.Yu-Na
2.Mao
3.Kostner or Suzuki

If any of the above mentioned ones falters then there are 3 talented young one's can land ANYWHERE in the podium:
-Julia Lipnitskaya
-Gracie Gold
-Adelina Sotnikova
in the given order.

Gracie Gold has skated like a CHAMPION of any kind of competition in the US Championships.
Julia also skated like a CHAMPION of any kind of competition in the Euro.

Actually in the ALL CLEAN scenario big IF. Mao Asada will come on top, because of difficulty and PCS. Do the math. 2 3A--2A-3T 3loop-2loo-2loop, 3S. 3F and 3loop. Big IF

 

[zamboni step]

10% , Sotnikova will headcase in the Free Skate

And finally evil has a face....or an avatar (just kidding, you aren't that bad). You say this everytime. I literally say to myself after watching her skate (or ANYONE for that matter) what you're going to say. For example if it's Julia you'll comment on how low her PCS is compared to what it should be. If it's Adelina in the short you'll say her PCS shouldn't be that much higher than Julia's but it doesn't matter because she'll fall twice in the long program. And if Adelina skates a reasonably clean FS you pick on the small errors she made. Here's an interesting factoid; this season Gracie has landed 18 clean triples with +GOE and became National Champion Adelina has also landed 18 pristine clean triples with positive GOE (not counting GPF which Gracie wasn't at) and she became National Champion.

Adelina also has medaled 5 out of 6 times during the GP, two silvers and three bronzes.
Gracie has medalled 2 out of 4 times, one silver and one bronze. She has also never won the FS segment of a GP.

Also out of curiosity, where do you come up with all these percentages?

 

[RABID]

And finally evil has a face....or an avatar (just kidding, you aren't that bad). You say this everytime. I literally say to myself after watching her skate (or ANYONE for that matter) what you're going to say. For example if it's Julia you'll comment on how low her PCS is compared to what it should be. If it's Adelina in the short you'll say her PCS shouldn't be that much higher than Julia's but it doesn't matter because she'll fall twice in the long program. And if Adelina skates a reasonably clean FS you pick on the small errors she made. Here's an interesting factoid; this season Gracie has landed 18 clean triples with +GOE and became National Champion Adelina has also landed 18 pristine clean triples with positive GOE (not counting GPF which Gracie wasn't at) and she became National Champion.

Adelina also has medaled 5 out of 6 times during the GP, two silvers and three bronzes.
Gracie has medalled 2 out of 4 times, one silver and one bronze. She has also never won the FS segment of a GP.

Also out of curiosity, where do you come up with all these percentages?

 

[pangtongfan]

Actually in the ALL CLEAN scenario big IF. Mao Asada will come on top, because of difficulty and PCS. Do the math. 2 3A--2A-3T 3loop-2loo-2loop, 3S. 3F and 3loop. Big IF

I find it funny you say because of PCS since a clean Mao would almost certainly be given lower PCS than a clean Kim. I actually prefer Maos LP atleast this year, but the judges scores this season and every season for awhile indicate this. So IF (and I am not sure I agree with you at all this is what would even happen) a clean Mao came out ahead of a clean Kim it would only be due to base value. She would undoubtably lose out to Kim on both GOE and PCS, and the only question would be the exact 3 gaps and how they added up.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I am 95% certain at this point if it is an all clean competition (not that we will ever see that) Kostner will not medal (amazing to now be saying that considering the pre season views, some even thinking she could beat a clean Kim, lol).

It's hard to say. Like you said, she would never be totally clean. However, her LP is my favorite of anyone this years and she presents it with such flair that if she were clean she deserves to get the highest PCS in the field. That is a hard piece to bring life to and she does it beautifully.

 

[minze]

I find it funny you say because of PCS since a clean Mao would almost certainly be given lower PCS than a clean Kim. I actually prefer Maos LP atleast this year, but the judges scores this season and every season for awhile indicate this. So IF (and I am not sure I agree with you at all this is what would even happen) a clean Mao came out ahead of a clean Kim it would only be due to base value. She would undoubtably lose out to Kim on both GOE and PCS, and the only question would be the exact 3 gaps and how they added up.

Do not understimate the power of a clean skate for Asada. The judges will not hesitate to give her that "bonus" with her difficulty IMO.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Do not understimate the power of a clean skate for Asada. The judges will not hesitate to give her that "bonus" with her difficulty IMO.

She needs more than difficulty IMO. She has not yet skated with the power needed to match the powerful music of her LP. She is capable of it but Mao must skate freely and hit the jumps to win.

 

[CarneAsada]

Do not understimate the power of a clean skate for Asada. The judges will not hesitate to give her that "bonus" with her difficulty IMO.

We've seen her do a clean skate back in 2010 and the judges just went "meh" and still gave a crappy Yuna 3 PCS higher. That said, a clean skate from Asada with only middling GOE today would have the ability to beat a clean Kim with her 2013 Worlds GOE and a 3 PCS advantage. She wouldn't have a PCS edge over Kim or Kostner but over the rest of the field? Definitely.

Aren't you the one who said she should also stop doing triple flips because she will never be able to do them consistently?

I believe that was gmyers, but still. I'm glad Adelina finally did the 3 jump combination so one source of the "Adelina is the worst" posts is gone.

 

[zamboni step]

She needs more than difficulty IMO. She has not yet skated with the power needed to match the powerful music of her LP. She is capable of it but Mao must skate freely and hit the jumps to win.

Exactly, she needs the wild abandon a Rachmaninoff piece demands. No thinking, just an outpour of emotion and drama on the ice. I also feel that without one the other won't come, if she's concentrating too much on landing the 3A or the 2A-3T then it won't happen, that's what happened to her in 2010, she was so focused on going clean no matter what that she didn't. Only this time, Yu-Na isn't the definitive beginning and end to the story, Mao has a say in what happens.

 

[CarneAsada]

Exactly, she needs the wild abandon a Rachmaninoff piece demands. No thinking, just an outpour of emotion and drama on the ice. I also feel that without one the other won't come, if she's concentrating too much on landing the 3A or the 2A-3T then it won't happen, that's what happened to her in 2010, she was so focused on going clean no matter what that she didn't. Only this time, Yu-Na isn't the definitive beginning and end to the story, Mao has a say in what happens.

She needs to just land her 3As. If she does that, it can carry her through the emptiest part of the program (seriously, no one would mind Mao taking her 15 seconds to set up a 3A if she lands it), and once she finishes her first two spins, the performance can begin. If she can actually skate clean, most people would forget the fact that, say, a couple of her spins are only matched to the music if you are a devoted fan with a good imagination, or that her 3A setup takes about 15-18 seconds (which is no longer than the time it takes most skaters to set up their 3-3 combinations).

 

[zamboni step]

She needs to just land her 3As. If she does that, it can carry her through the emptiest part of the program (seriously, no one would mind Mao taking her 15 seconds to set up a 3A if she lands it), and once she finishes her first two spins, the performance can begin. If she can actually skate clean, most people would forget the fact that, say, a couple of her spins are only matched to the music if you are a devoted fan with a good imagination, or that her 3A setup takes about 15-18 seconds (which is no longer than the time it takes most skaters to set up their 3-3 combinations).

And the judges will just say "Meh" again, what she needs is to land the jumps and to get the audience excited, she gets the audience excited, then the judges will be forced to go up with her scores, 3As and an exciting performance will do it.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

And the judges will just say "Meh" again, what she needs is to land the jumps and to get the audience excited, she gets the audience excited, then the judges will be forced to go up with her scores, 3As and an exciting performance will do it.

Agreed. Yuna and Mao both will face an audience who would much rather see Adelina and Julia do well, so the non-Russian skaters will have to skate great to win the crowd over.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

She needs to just land her 3As. If she does that, it can carry her through the emptiest part of the program (seriously, no one would mind Mao taking her 15 seconds to set up a 3A if she lands it), and once she finishes her first two spins, the performance can begin. If she can actually skate clean, most people would forget the fact that, say, a couple of her spins are only matched to the music if you are a devoted fan with a good imagination, or that her 3A setup takes about 15-18 seconds (which is no longer than the time it takes most skaters to set up their 3-3 combinations).

How is this fair. It seems a majority say Adelina and especially Julia should have less pcs value than Mao. My question is this, does PCS not include the overall presentation ? Are you saying that you want people to look the other way when Mao does the same thing, yet quite possibly even more severe? How is this not seen as a double standard?? Are these not the same people who claim Julia and Adelina are far inferior to Mao in terms of PCS? Would this not also be called inflation, even in an away game situation.

 

[cooper]

Agreed. Yuna and Mao both will face an audience who would much rather see Adelina and Julia do well, so the non-Russian skaters will have to skate great to win the crowd over.

i'm sure the russian crowd will prefer mao over yuna.. just like in 2011 worlds.. yuna got a cold treatment even w/ the organizers of that event..which is really interesting because her arirang program was probably one her best and probably one of the most underrated lps that yuna had..

 

[Antilopa]

Agreed. Yuna and Mao both will face an audience who would much rather see Adelina and Julia do well, so the non-Russian skaters will have to skate great to win the crowd over.

I think, you're wrong. AFAIK, most of tickets to girls competitions have been bought up by Koreans and Japaneses.