Olympic Standings If Everyone Skates Their Very Best?

[Frenchie]

Now it is possible Plushenko due to home cooking would come as high as 6th or 7th (undeservedly, he really should be about 10th) if everyone skated cleanly.

Now if we're talking about deserved scores if skated perfectly clean, then Plushy should find himself way behind all those skaters due to a lack of choreography, (exhibition of) skating skills and transitions: (not ranked in order)
Yuzuru Hanyu
Daisuke Takahashi
Tatsuki Machida
Patrick Chan
Kevin Reynolds (5 quads)
Liam Firus (Chan clone with no quad)
Javier Fernandez
Michal Brezina
Tomas Verner
Denis Ten
Jeremy Abbott
Jason Brown (no quad, but PCS++)
Han Yan
Florent Amodio
Brian Joubert
Peter Liebers

Actually, if we talk about clean skates and don't take into account how (un)likely it is for a skater to execute all his elements cleanly, then Paul Bonifacio Parkinson would deserve higher PCS that should more than make up for Plushy's 2nd quad in the LP. (If we do take that likeliness into account, Parkinson won't even qualify for the LP! )

So in terms of deserved result if skated clean, I'd personally have Plushenko in 18th place. I'd love to be surprised by him actually trying to earn PCS though.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It is funny how we all wonder who would win between Hanyu and Chan, Kim and Asada (with her 8 triple layout), Takahashi vs Fernandez, Sotnikova vs Lipnitskaia vs Kostner vs Suzuki, if all skated well. Yet for the dance we dont have to wonder since we see it happen almost all the time, which is how we pretty much know D&W will probably get the judges nod over V&M if both skate perfectly, how P&B or B&S will for the dance, etc...The dance you dont even have to wonder, the other events you often never get the answer.

Dance being predictable?! Well that's news to us. :sarcasm: At least with difficulty taken into more consideration you can actually get movement in the dance standings even if the PCS more or less dictates placements.

Certainly under 6.0 it all seemed very pre-determined, and if everyone stayed on their feet, judging ice dance was the easiest job in the world.

 

[DaveT]

If everyone skates clean, Hanyu will not win, he could not even do Chan's program if he tried, sure he might lands the jumps but he could not do that program and if he had to his chances of landing the jumps goes way down. And clean or not, I'll believe an American team can win a gold medal in dance when I see it and I'll believe they don't find a way to give a Russian team the bronze when I see it as well (Vancouver! Hobbling to bronze!). Agree with your ladies pretty much, clean it would be Kim, Asada, whatever Russian is clean (in fact I don't think a Russian will have to be clean for bronze. They could probably make multiple mistakes for bronze as long as everyone else makes at least one mistake). Pairs I also pretty much agree except if a second Russian team were clean they would absolutely take bronze.

 

[sky_fly20]

Ice Dance is still much like a pecking order
if everyone skated at their best and clean it would still be much the same D&W, V&M and P&B or I&K

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If everyone skates clean, Hanyu will not win, he could not even do Chan's program if he tried, sure he might lands the jumps but he could not do that program and if he had to his chances of landing the jumps goes way down. And clean or not, I'll believe an American team can win a gold medal in dance when I see it and I'll believe they don't find a way to give a Russian team the bronze when I see it as well (Vancouver! Hobbling to bronze!). Agree with your ladies pretty much, clean it would be Kim, Asada, whatever Russian is clean (in fact I don't think a Russian will have to be clean for bronze. They could probably make multiple mistakes for bronze as long as everyone else makes at least one mistake). Pairs I also pretty much agree except if a second Russian team were clean they would absolutely take bronze.

I disagree. Hanyu's base content is monstrously higher than other skaters, particularly due to his second half jumping passes and GOE on top of that amplifies it. Even with a PCS disadvantage he can easily make it up. It's a good example of how quality elements are much more appreciated under this system whereas in the past, an executed triple was worth the same as a well-executed triple (since judges weren't rewarding so much as deducting).

 

[Li'Kitsu]

If everyone skates clean, Hanyu will not win, he could not even do Chan's program if he tried, sure he might lands the jumps but he could not do that program and if he had to his chances of landing the jumps goes way down.

Why would Hanyu need to be able to skate Chans program to win? I'm pretty sure Chan couldn't skate Hanyus program either - landing a 3A out of a spread eagle-counter move? It doesn't matter if Hanyu could skate Chans programm or not - Chans program is tailored to his strengths as Hanyus is to his. Hanyu wouldn't need to beat Chan at his strengths (SS, TR), he needs to have his own strengths, and he does.
And that's coming from someone who even thinks clean Chan would win. I just find this argument to be weird.

 

[tulosai]

This is all ONLY if everyone weer honestly perfect.

Ladies

Unlike most people, I think Asada would plainly beat Kim if they both HONESTLY skated their best- even if Mao only had a 7 triple LP. I think the judges want to give it to her, and I think that their PCS will be very very close (closer than most people seem to think) and that Mao's positive GOE (again IF She skates her best) will also not be as far from Yuna's as most seem to think.

Either way, Asada-Kim in some order for 1-2, and Sotnikova for 3rd with Carolina (if she can get a triple triple combo together in the LP) as a definite spoiler. If the world were fair, it would be Suzuki, but the world is not fair.

Pairs

V/T and S/S are hardly worth discussing. They'd go 1-2 in that order, no question.

Unlike some I don't think S/K are even remotely in it for bronze in an 'all perfect' scenario. I think it is Pang/Tong FOR SURE if they could land their SBS jumps, with D/R as the only possible spoiler to them but an unlikely one.

Ice Dance
Again, hardly worth discussing the top 2- it would be D/W and V/M, in that order.

Third I think would actually be I/K. This is impossible in reality since the chances of them hitting all their levels in both programs (not to even mention not falling down and other serious sins etc which they may also do) is nill, but nonetheless, were everyone perfect, they'd be it.

 

[DaveT]

I didn't mean he had to skate Chan's program, I simply meant that relative to what happens between elements, Chan has no contemporary peer. So I don't necessarily disagree with what you have said, Hanyu can out jump Chan and win, no argument there, Hanyu's strengths lie in jumping and difficult entrances and I think many enjoy his showmanship but the skill of skating, as in with your feet, Chan is so far ahead and rewarded as such (in fact I would say he is not overscored, those close to him are) if he lands his jumps (which I would consider unlikely - my bets are not on Chan to win) I don't see how he loses. So you may be right, there might be a jump entrance Chan can't do, but Chan's transitions are not only nearly filling the entire program they are so difficult, there is simply no other skater today with the talent to execute them. Chan's gift is rare. Now, I don't post often and of all the things I said I suspected my Russian comments would be more controversial (like the time I said that if Irina Slutskaya skated for the US her exact performances would have earned exactly zero world or olympic medals) but it appears I am wrong.

 

[Violet]

The funny thing is, if the host country were different, everything should've changed. LOL

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

V&T two "missed throws" didn't open any doors, and both received positive GOE. Their 3S received the second highest GOE of all the throws.

As for Javier/Takahashi, it's hard to say, but I think Javier would have received it based on technical merit, considering his BV would have been about 5-6 points higher than Takahashi's, which would have sealed the win. It's also hard to argue a guy with 3 quads losing out to a guy with 1 quad (and it's not like Fernandez is a not-very-artistic Goebel to Takahashi's Yagudin/Plushenko).

 

[moviechick]

Fernandez is no where as bad as Goebel but there's a pretty huge gap between him and Takahashi who is like the artistic standard.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Fernandez is no where as bad as Goebel but there's a pretty huge gap between him and Takahashi who is like the artistic standard.

I agree there's a huge gap, but Takahashi is given a lot of slack for his errors. As much as people complain about Chan getting PCS marks that prop him up (which I agree happens in occasional instances like 2013 Worlds), Takahashi is also held up by PCS in spite of being technically inferior.

Along with 2013 Worlds, in Sochi, Takahashi had the 12th best TES in the SP (where he placed 4th) and 13th best TES in the LP (where he placed 6th), but thanks to the having the 3rd best PCS scores in each segment, he was able to end up 6th. Certainly Yan deserved to be ahead of him.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The funny thing is, if the host country were different, everything should've changed. LOL

No. Adelina is one fall better than Yuna and Caro everywhere because her spins are so much better and she does more jumps in the bonus. The points add up to give her a nice buffer. The margin would be a bit smaller but the result the same. Maybe Caro in 2nd if the contest was in Italy.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I agree there's a huge gap, but Takahashi is given a lot of slack for his errors. As much as people complain about Chan getting PCS marks that prop him up (which I agree happens in occasional instances like 2013 Worlds), Takahashi is also held up by PCS in spite of being technically inferior.

Along with 2013 Worlds, in Sochi, Takahashi had the 12th best TES in the SP (where he placed 4th) and 13th best TES in the LP (where he placed 6th), but thanks to the having the 3rd best PCS scores in each segment, he was able to end up 6th. Certainly Yan deserved to be ahead of him.

Yan certainly did not deserve to be ahead of him.

Takahashi's PCS should have been 1st in the LP in Sochi and he should have finished 4th overall. He isn't "held up" by PCS at all, he usually deserves a BIGGER advantage in PCS. His expression, attention to detail, and musical timing exceeds that of any other competitor.

BTW, someone could be 24th in TES and still deserve to be 1st in PCS. What a non-argument you're making.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Takahashi's PCS should have been 1st in the LP in Sochi and he should have finished 4th overall. He isn't "held up" by PCS at all, he usually deserves a BIGGER advantage in PCS. His expression, attention to detail, and musical timing exceeds that of any other competitor.

I agree. I never understood why Patrick would get so much higher on IN and PE.

 

[Blades of Passion]

No. Adelina is one fall better than Yuna and Caro everywhere because her spins are so much better and she does more jumps in the bonus. The points add up to give her a nice buffer. The margin would be a bit smaller but the result the same. Maybe Caro in 2nd if the contest was in Italy.

This is a joke. Adelina won because the competition was in Russia and money went into buying the result. The Sochi Olympics cost over 50 billion. Vancouver and London combined cost 20 billion. It's clear as day that for Russia these Olympics were all about trying to show their power and officials/gangsters did whatever was necessary to ensure Russia would win as many medals/Golds as possible.

Under no circumstances would Adelina's PCS ever be that close to Yu-Na's, nor would she ever not be called for underrotation on her opening 3Toe. She has had technique issues on 3Lutz+3Toe her ENTIRE career and never not gotten a < call on it. Why do you think she does 3Toe+3Toe in the SP instead of 3Lutz+3Toe?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

She has had technique issues on 3Lutz+3Toe her ENTIRE career and never not gotten a < call on it. Why do you think she does 3Toe+3Toe in the SP instead of 3Lutz+3Toe?

The 3T-3T is more reliable for her. She took the risk in the LP and performed it so beautifully. Most importantly, she won the night. Johnny and Tara make it crystal clear why Adelina should have won, I suggest watching this:

http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/weir-and-lipinski-discuss-skating-controversy

As they are neither Russian nor Korean they are completely impartial. Unlike you.

 

[on_the_horizon]

The 3T-3T is more reliable for her. She took the risk in the LP and performed it so beautifully. Most importantly, she won the night. Johnny and Tara make it crystal clear why Adelina should have won, I suggest watching this:

http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/weir-and-lipinski-discuss-skating-controversy

As they are neither Russian nor Korean they are completely impartial. Unlike you.

Sorry, but I though BoP was an American???

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Sorry, but I though BoP was an American???

American but Yuna-uber.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Yan certainly did not deserve to be ahead of him.

Takahashi's PCS should have been 1st in the LP in Sochi and he should have finished 4th overall. He isn't "held up" by PCS at all, he usually deserves a BIGGER advantage in PCS. His expression, attention to detail, and musical timing exceeds that of any other competitor.

BTW, someone could be 24th in TES and still deserve to be 1st in PCS. What a non-argument you're making.

No, somebody cannot be 24th in TES and "deserve" to be 1st in PCS. Presumably, for a performance that's 24th in TES would have so many errors that one cannot justify giving higher performance/execution, interpretation, transitions, choreography over skaters who did more demanding elements and successfully at that -- unless it's some alternate universe competition where Kim/Kostner/Asada/Chan competed against novice/junior skaters and they flub their elements.

And 4th overall?! I really hope you're joking. Daisuke is arguably the most expressive, fluid skater out there, but the reality is, Takahashi didn't even come close to landing a quad in both segments, and did only 1 axel in his FS... to get 164 points for that FS is ridiculous.. The top 7 guys at Junior Worlds last year all had higher scoring TES in their FS (and if we added 2.5 points for a decent ChSq1, the top 11 guys).

I get that Takahashi is a sentimental favourite, but this is the OLYMPICS. Assuming you'd have Hanyu/Chan going 1-2 (I'm guessing you'd say Ten should have been 3rd) the fact that you'd have Takahashi - with one 3A - in 4th ahead of of Fernandez who did 2 quads and a 3A, and Machida who did 1 quad and two 3As is ridiculous. And Yan did a quad-triple and a triple axel in his FS, so in my books, he did more than Takahashi technically speaking (and indeed was 7 points ahead on TES).

Takahashi being propped to 6th, or even 7th, despite being 12th and 13th in TES is bad enough. But to suggest him being 4th with two downgraded quads and just one 3A in his FS is just laughable -- thank goodness you're not a judge, and hopefully very far from any judging panel. I suppose you would have given Brown the 2nd highest PCS and 5th.