Hey MM,Mathman said:One small but vital correction. Fumie's intended triple flip was downgraded to a double. Thus she got a base value of only 1.7 for this element, instead of 5.5.
The true base value of her technical elements is 57.4 (including the 10% bonus). This puts her in a virtual dead heat with Sasha's base value of 57.5.
(Sasha's base value is true because she did get full credit for completing the revolutions, even on the jumps that she flubbed.)
So Fumie has to make up the 3.62 points that Sasha leads by now, plus the 3.16 points that Sasha can natually expect in PCS and the .1 in TES base value. This is 6.88 points. Plus, if Sasha skates well she will pick up some GOEs on her spins and spirals.
That's why I put Sasha's lead at "two falls." If Fumie skates perfectly, Sasha will have to give up about 8 points for Fumie to win.
MM
Thanks for the "bonus info."
However, just to be clear, in my post, it was my intention to go only by the TES scores of what the skaters intended to do for their Olympic LPs as listed on the detailed judging sheets. I purposefully didn't include any bonus points or downgrades because I didn't want to get into how the skaters performed.However, your information is very helpful for those who want to do a more detailed analysis of how Fumie and Sasha compare. I give you a Level 4 and a GOE of +3.
Rgirl
