What does Suguri have to do to beat Cohen tomorrow?

[R.D.]

Can someone experienced in the Cop system break this down for me? What will Fumie have to throw down in order to have a chance to beat Cohen tomorrow for the World championship? I don't think the others can catch up to her even if they perform a stellar program...I remember Suguri getting stuck in fourth with a clean routine behind Irina and Cohen's flawed skates. Can she do it this time? Someone with the numbers, please...

 

[EvanLysacekFan]

Show up, probably.

 

[R.D.]

Show up, probably.

got a good laugh out of that one...

But I'm SERIOUS, guys. I want some totals.

 

[Tonichelle]

she needs to stand up, really feel the program, and hit everything dead on

unless Sasha is completely healed and ready to nail things perfectly I don't see her taking gold (hoping I'm wrong though lol)

 

[R.D.]

unless Sasha is completely healed and ready to nail things perfectly I don't see her taking gold (hoping I'm wrong though lol)

Who's "her"? Cohen or Suguri?

 

[Tonichelle]

I don't see Cohen nailing her program and winning

 

[R.D.]

Me either. I hope it doesn't happen for my own sake, lol. But almost all top skaters eventually skate the FS of their life. Sort of surprising it hasn't happened for Cohen yet.

 

[Mathman]

Basically, Sasha will have to fall twice for Fumie to win.

Right now, Sasha is about 4 points ahead. This is the equivalent of one jump.

In their Olympic LPs, for tech, Sasha's program had a base value of 57.5. Even with one-and-a-half falls, she still got 55.22 points out of it.

Fumie's intended base value was about 56 (I'm too lazy to figure it out exactly, LOL.) With only a triple flip downgraded to a double she got 54.23.

In PCS, Sasha scored three points higher, 62.41 to 59.25. Sasha skated very nicely after the first thirty seconds, while Fumnie's presentation was OK but nothing special.

Add all this up, and Fumie needs for Sasha to spot her about 8 points (two falls on triple jumps).

MM

 

[Tonichelle]

see only Mathman gives a real crap about the math lol

seriously though... if Fumie skates better artistically than she did in Torino (which she has many times in the past) she may not have to really have those 8 points spotted... all she has to do is skate like the Fumie we all know and love

 

[R.D.]

thanks. And she DID fall twice in the QR so it's a wide open field.

But let's assume Suguri has the skate of her life. What's the highest total she could possibly score? And would Cohen still be above her with two falls?

I would think Cohen would have a one-fall leeway if Suguri is clean. But if Suguri herself makes mistakes, it seems that SC will beat her no matter what. So I suppose SC won't have to be clean, but FS will have to stay on her feet no matter what. And since Suguri skates after Cohen (just like OLY) she'll know what she has to do. She's a clutch skater, too...unlike Cohen

 

[chania36]

Dont forget Joannie Rochette could surprise your guys

 

[Frau Muller]

Folks, there is always the subjective factor. The old smoke-filled-room agreements. This may be 'cooked' for America/Cohen to be rewarded with impossible-to-beat second marks, regardless of the number of splats that she may suffer.

Why are Belbin/Agosto being kept down, all of a sudden? Maybe it has been pre-agreed that "America's Gold" this year will be in the ladies event...in exchange for Eastern Europe's (or another area/country) win of the Ice Dance?

Of course, the fact that Cohen is of Eastern Euro heritage means a win-win situation for the Yuri Balkovs of this game (Yuri being the infamous Ukrainean-Israeli judge who toe-tapped his way to our hearts a few years ago...and he is back judging Ice Dance tonight!).

Hmmm.....somethin' is rotten.

 

[R.D.]

Maybe...I won't count her out but I won't count on it happening, either. Besides, Suguri AND Cohen would have to mess up big as well for Rochette to be even close to catching them up.

 

[demarinis5]

I know Fumie does not have one planned but she needs
a 3/3 possibly two and a clean skate to rack up points to
beat Sasha. Fumie needs to work her technical strengths
and get those extra points. I like both ladies but this time
I am rooting for Fumie for Gold.

 

[flying camel]

Fumie needs to land all the jumps and stretch, stretch, stretch.

 

[Mafke]

the Yuri Balkovs of this game (Yuri being the infamous Ukrainean-Israeli judge who toe-tapped his way to our hearts a few years ago...and he is back judging Ice Dance tonight!).
Hmmm.....somethin' is rotten.

Cheating judges .... is there _anything_ the ISU won't do for them?

 

[coolio]

Fumie better hope Sasha falls on her jumps, Sasha is simply better.Sasha would have won gold in Torino with a clean program and Fumie wll never reach that.

 

[Jasper]

Stand on her feet and triple all her jumps. She might just have won the silver at the Olympics if she didn't double that one intended triple. And, of course, she needs the probable mistakes that will come from Sasha.

 

[Jasper]

In their Olympic LPs, for tech, Sasha's program had a base value of 57.5. Even with one-and-a-half falls, she still got 55.22 points out of it.

How is that possible? Sasha would have lost -3 in TES for the one fall and -2 in TES for the hand down.

 

[Alsace]

The base value is the value of jumps and spins without adding points for grade of execution. So the points Sasha got out of the Olympic FP includes the points for GOE for her spiral sequence, etc.