- Joined
- Feb 14, 2006
Mathman said:
Which is yet another reason I think falls should take more points off. Fumie really should have been on the podium at the Olympics after terrible mistakes from Cohen and Slutskaya.
What does Suguri have to do to beat Cohen tomorrow?
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
Which is yet another reason I think falls should take more points off. Fumie really should have been on the podium at the Olympics after terrible mistakes from Cohen and Slutskaya.
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2006
chania36 said:
Make up 10 points? Not when Sasha gets the points she does, even after falls.
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2006
Alsace said:
Don't they give 10% extra for the second half in addition to the grades of execution thing like in the mens?
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
Suguri is giving up serious points to Sasha on the LP PCS except for SS because the quality of that Rach #3 program isn't good. In fact, she is even giving up on the TES because she has 6 triples planned and Sasha has 7.
I think Suguri needs to have a perfect skate and Sasha needs to make at least 2 major mistakes. Of course, Sasha DID make 2 major mistakes in the QR, so it could certainly happen. I think Fumie's footwork can compete with Sasha. On the spins and spirals, though, Fumie is not in Sasha's class.
I think Suguri needs to have a perfect skate and Sasha needs to make at least 2 major mistakes. Of course, Sasha DID make 2 major mistakes in the QR, so it could certainly happen. I think Fumie's footwork can compete with Sasha. On the spins and spirals, though, Fumie is not in Sasha's class.
Last edited:
Fumie's OWG LP had a base value of 53.2 for her TES, ie, her elements (jumps, spins, spirals, FW). Sasha's OWG LP had a base value of 57.5 for her TES. So if both skaters hit every jump with no plus or minus GOEs (just to make it easier to understand), and have the same levels for her spins, spirals, and FW, again no plus or minus GOEs. So if both Fumie and Sasha nail all their jumps and receive the same levels for everything else in Calgary as they did in Torino, Sasha inherently has a 4.3 lead in the TES.
As for the component scores, in Torino the TES scores, in order from high to low of the top four:
1. Shizuka TCS: 63.00.
2. Sasha TCS: 62.41.
3. Irina TCS: 61.87.
4. Fumie's TCS: 59.25
So, unless Fumie has added difficulty to her jumps, especially, let's just assume Fumie will still have the same TES base value of 52.5. Add whatever TES you think she's capable of or that you think the judges are willing to give her. You can use the Olympic TES scores as a guide or not.
Do the same with Sasha and you can figure where Fumie needs to add points to beat a basic, nonfalling Sasha.
IMO, Fumie's best chance is by increasing the difficulty in her jumps and spins. In Torino, some of Suguri's combo spins had higher base levels than Sasha's. Also, I think Fumie is capable of doing at least one or two more difficult jump combos, if she's practiced them. Finally, I think more facial expression and a greater sense of passion may help Fumie's component scores. I know the TCS are supposed to be about a lot more than "presentation" and also that the Asian means of expressing passion is different from Western and European aesthetics, so there, everybody is on their own, IMO.
Hope that helped. And check my numbers since I'm the Sasha Cohen of getting them wrong, lol.
Rgirl
P.S. ITA with Ogre Mage that the choreography of Fumie's LP is weak. Mostly stroke-element-stroke-element. Few if any transitions or difficult entrances/exits into/out of jumps. Hopefully Lori Nichols worked on some of that.
As for the component scores, in Torino the TES scores, in order from high to low of the top four:
1. Shizuka TCS: 63.00.
2. Sasha TCS: 62.41.
3. Irina TCS: 61.87.
4. Fumie's TCS: 59.25
So, unless Fumie has added difficulty to her jumps, especially, let's just assume Fumie will still have the same TES base value of 52.5. Add whatever TES you think she's capable of or that you think the judges are willing to give her. You can use the Olympic TES scores as a guide or not.
Do the same with Sasha and you can figure where Fumie needs to add points to beat a basic, nonfalling Sasha.
IMO, Fumie's best chance is by increasing the difficulty in her jumps and spins. In Torino, some of Suguri's combo spins had higher base levels than Sasha's. Also, I think Fumie is capable of doing at least one or two more difficult jump combos, if she's practiced them. Finally, I think more facial expression and a greater sense of passion may help Fumie's component scores. I know the TCS are supposed to be about a lot more than "presentation" and also that the Asian means of expressing passion is different from Western and European aesthetics, so there, everybody is on their own, IMO.
Hope that helped. And check my numbers since I'm the Sasha Cohen of getting them wrong, lol.
Rgirl
P.S. ITA with Ogre Mage that the choreography of Fumie's LP is weak. Mostly stroke-element-stroke-element. Few if any transitions or difficult entrances/exits into/out of jumps. Hopefully Lori Nichols worked on some of that.
Last edited:
Agreed
I think we all agree, 2 falls from Sasha and a perfect skate from Fumie. Joannie Rochette doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the gold. I think Sasha is still suffering a groin injury and she is going to have a tough time doing 6 or 7 clean triples. But maybe she can pull it together. We shall see. I would love to see Fumie rewarded for being a great skater with an ethereal quality no one else has.
I think we all agree, 2 falls from Sasha and a perfect skate from Fumie. Joannie Rochette doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the gold. I think Sasha is still suffering a groin injury and she is going to have a tough time doing 6 or 7 clean triples. But maybe she can pull it together. We shall see. I would love to see Fumie rewarded for being a great skater with an ethereal quality no one else has.
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
Off topic, it seems strange to me that the quality of choreography in Fumie's SP is so good and the LP is so empty. It almost makes me wonder if Team Suguri stripped some choreography out to focus on the jumps? I don't know. OTOH, Nichol has had a few choreographic brain farts before, such as (IMO) Jenny Kirk's Beatles LP.Rgirl said:
Frau Muller said:
No, the Ukrainian-now-Israeli judge who toe-tapped during the 1999 Worlds pairs competition was Alfred Korytek.
Balkov is primarily a dance judge most notorious for his phone call to Jean Senft during the 1998 Olympics; he has no connection with Israel.
Need a score card to keep your suspect Ukrainian judges straight.
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2005
Tonichelle said:
Neither do I, I see her not nailing her program and winning.
Maybe if Fumie nails EVERYTHING and Sasha falls twice and has another minor mistake.
Thanks RG for the numbers analysis. And I got a chuckle out of your last comment.
I think most of us are at a consensus that Cohen will need to do one of the following:
- Fall more than once
- Repeat her QR performance in the Free
- Make 3 or more mistakes (doesn't have to be a fall)
And Suguri will have to be ON. Not just be clean but be ON. Cohen's got to count her lucky stars Slutskaya and Arakawa aren't there. I'm sure she knows this and I don't know if she'll end up going to pieces (hypothetically speaking here) in the free or not.
I hope I provoke the Skate Gods by saying that Cohen has this World Championships being presented to her on a platter. All she needs to do is reach out and grab it...her FS performance basically just needs to contain one mistake or less...and she doesn't even need to be on because she gets the points anyway.
And now that I've said that...go Suguri, Rochette, and everyone within reach of her!
I think most of us are at a consensus that Cohen will need to do one of the following:
- Fall more than once
- Repeat her QR performance in the Free
- Make 3 or more mistakes (doesn't have to be a fall)
And Suguri will have to be ON. Not just be clean but be ON. Cohen's got to count her lucky stars Slutskaya and Arakawa aren't there. I'm sure she knows this and I don't know if she'll end up going to pieces (hypothetically speaking here) in the free or not.
I hope I provoke the Skate Gods by saying that Cohen has this World Championships being presented to her on a platter. All she needs to do is reach out and grab it...her FS performance basically just needs to contain one mistake or less...and she doesn't even need to be on because she gets the points anyway.
And now that I've said that...go Suguri, Rochette, and everyone within reach of her!
Last edited:
- Joined
- Jul 28, 2003
Frau Muller said:Folks, there is always the subjective factor. The old smoke-filled-room agreements. This may be 'cooked' for America/Cohen to be rewarded with impossible-to-beat second marks, regardless of the number of splats that she may suffer.
Why are Belbin/Agosto being kept down, all of a sudden? Maybe it has been pre-agreed that "America's Gold" this year will be in the ladies event...in exchange for Eastern Europe's (or another area/country) win of the Ice Dance?
Of course, the fact that Cohen is of Eastern Euro heritage means a win-win situation for the Yuri Balkovs of this game (Yuri being the infamous Ukrainean-Israeli judge who toe-tapped his way to our hearts a few years ago...and he is back judging Ice Dance tonight!).
Hmmm.....somethin' is rotten.
Belbin and Agusto are "being kept down" because they are not that good - not the judges fault. Their free dance lacked lustre.
ITA, Lad, re Belbin/Agosto not being "suddenly held down." IIRC, at the Olympics, every top team except Navka/Kostamorov, Belbin/Agosto, and I believe Grushina/Goncharov had a fall or other mistakes in the OD, so teams such as Denkova/Staviski, Dubreil/Lauzon, Delobel/Schoenfelder, Chait/Sagnovski, and, yes, I'll say it, Fusar-Poli/Margaglio, basically "fell" out of medal contention. Sorry, who could resist such an obnoxious pun?
Yet somehow B/A's silver was referred to by the media as if it were more valuable than Cohen's, whose was the only other US medal in figure skating. In fact, even after the ladies event was over, Time magazine referred to how B/A's silver helped increase the US medal count without mentioning Cohen's. Of course I realize it's a big deal for a US ice dance team to win the silver at the OWG and a let-down for a US lady to not win gold, plus Sasha clearly "lost" the gold with those opening falls whereas Tanith and Ben clearly "won" their silver with a good, though not great, FD. In fact, B/A only came in 4th in the FD following, from first to third, N/K, Del/Schoen, and Gru/Gon, so Tanith and Ben definitely got more than a little help from their friends who fell in the OD.
BTW. I do like B/A. I just think they're still technically immature. Hopefully they'll develop into a great team, but then, that's what everyone said about Bourne/Kraatz who were so good so young. But of course the skate gods had other things in mind.
Sorry I'm referring to something said on another thread and only partially carried on here. Perhaps after Worlds, a thread on how context affects how "valuable" a given medal is would be interesting on The Edge.
Rgirl
Yet somehow B/A's silver was referred to by the media as if it were more valuable than Cohen's, whose was the only other US medal in figure skating. In fact, even after the ladies event was over, Time magazine referred to how B/A's silver helped increase the US medal count without mentioning Cohen's. Of course I realize it's a big deal for a US ice dance team to win the silver at the OWG and a let-down for a US lady to not win gold, plus Sasha clearly "lost" the gold with those opening falls whereas Tanith and Ben clearly "won" their silver with a good, though not great, FD. In fact, B/A only came in 4th in the FD following, from first to third, N/K, Del/Schoen, and Gru/Gon, so Tanith and Ben definitely got more than a little help from their friends who fell in the OD.
BTW. I do like B/A. I just think they're still technically immature. Hopefully they'll develop into a great team, but then, that's what everyone said about Bourne/Kraatz who were so good so young. But of course the skate gods had other things in mind.
Sorry I'm referring to something said on another thread and only partially carried on here. Perhaps after Worlds, a thread on how context affects how "valuable" a given medal is would be interesting on The Edge.
Rgirl
Last edited:
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2004
I know! Frustrating, it is. I wonder if Nichol had too much on her plate this season with Totmiyanina&Marinin's, Lysacek's, Asada's, and Meissner's porgrams that she ran out of inspiration for Fumie's LP. Her past LPs have been really good.Ogre Mage said:
Rgirl said:
Personally, I don´t think that Sasha lost the gold because of that fall and a stumble. Arakawa would have beaten Sasha anyway, she had the excellent position to skate after Sasha and could do what needed to be done to win over her. Arakawa was so very strong in her freeskate and I understand that she was strong during her whole time in Turin = in practices also. Irina was the last to skate in Turin, and the pressure got her. She would have needed to skate very well, a faultless programme.
I hope that now in Galgary Sasha is able to use her excellent position as the first skater of the final group and to skate the way that the competition is over... Anyway, she has a lead and in my opinion only a total meltdown of Sasha gives the victory to Suguri.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2005
I wish Sasha was in second so she could have something to fight for instead of trying to hold her position. I too think the groin is still bothering her. She is still missing practices. She must be injured. What did Bela tell Mary Lou on that famous vault "now or never".
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
One small but vital correction. Fumie's intended triple flip was downgraded to a double. Thus she got a base value of only 1.7 for this element, instead of 5.5.Rgirl said:
The true base value of her technical elements is 57.4 (including the 10% bonus). This puts her in a virtual dead heat with Sasha's base value of 57.5.
(Sasha's base value is true because she did get full credit for completing the revolutions, even on the jumps that she flubbed.)
So Fumie has to make up the 3.62 points that Sasha leads by now, plus the 3.16 points that Sasha can natually expect in PCS and the .1 in TES base value. This is 6.88 points. Plus, if Sasha skates well she will pick up some GOEs on her spins and spirals.
That's why I put Sasha's lead at "two falls." If Fumie skates perfectly, Sasha will have to give up about 8 points for Fumie to win.
MM
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Sasha will have to have the equivalent of two falls and Fumie skate clean.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
RD - I am rooting for Sasha on your behalf. You can hear me screaming BRAVA.
At it's finish, Sasha may be World Champion, Irina will be two World Champion, Arakawa will be World Champion and Olympic Champion.
Whatever, you can still keep your favorite. Understand that in time they are only your memories.
Joe
At it's finish, Sasha may be World Champion, Irina will be two World Champion, Arakawa will be World Champion and Olympic Champion.
Whatever, you can still keep your favorite. Understand that in time they are only your memories.
Joe
