Winning the Big one after waiting for years

Vash01 · Apr 21, 2006

I was thinking the other day that in other sports we come across players or sometimes teams that just can't win the big one, despite having the talent to. Success does not come early in their cases. They hang in for years and finally win the big one. When that happens, it makes a bigger news than had they won early.

For example-

Phil Mickelson (Golf)
John Elway (NFL)
The Boston Red Sox (Baseball)

Can you think of figure skaters that hung in long enough to finally win the big one?

Here are my thoughts on this.

Irina Slutskaya- She competed at the world level for 7 years before winning the world title in 2002.

Plushenko - hung in for 4 years after winning an Olympic silver and finally won the OGM in 2006.

Paul Wylie (even though it was not a gold at the Olympics)- in 1992. He finally realized his potential. His silver was almost as good as the gold.

Shizuka Arakawa first went to the Olympics in 1998. She did not make the Japanese Olympic team in 2002. She had not won a world medal prior to her win in 2004 worlds. She came in 9th place in 2005 worlds, but she persevered and won the OGM in 2006.

Klimova-Ponomarenko: bronze in 1984, silver in 1988, finally gold in 1992 (however, one may argue that in ice dance that is a traditional path to the OGM).

Maria Butyrskaya struggled for years with her fed. They did not give her a chance but she won the world title in 1999, which was a first for a Russian lady. (It was not an OGM but in her case a world title was almost as unlikely as an OGM for someone else).

Will Sasha Cohen, Michelle Kwan, or Irina Slutskaya finally win the big one (OGM) in 2010?

Who else can be the persevering one? Fumie Suguri? Miki Ando? Johnny Weir?

Vash

R.D. · Apr 21, 2006

No, no and no.

Irina will be 31 in 2010. Has anyone that old (in skating terms) continued to compete in skating...especially at the top level? Sorry, not going to happen.

MK would be 29. That's also very old (in skating terms). I don't think she'll last that long, frankly.

Cohen would be 25. Sounds reasonable until you factor in what she's dealing with right now. Then I come to the conclusion she won't last anywhere near long enough to do 2010 in healthy condition. Besides, she's getting passed up left and right by youngsters. Her time is over. Her best shot was here in 06.

If history repeats itself, though, it might be with someone else. The problem is the three of them already have Olympic medals. It's not like they have to climb to the top...they just have to keep from falling off, which is what I think is happening right now.

As for the other veterans, it's hard to tell who will rebound and who won't. But I have the most faith in Miki Ando at the moment.

BravesSkateFan · Apr 22, 2006

Irina will be 31 in 2010. Has anyone that old (in skating terms) continued to compete in skating...especially at the top level? Sorry, not going to happen.

Just because its never happened before doesn't mean it won't. And sure enough just as soon as someone says "its never happened before" it happens. Just look at Sarah Hughes

Theatregirl1122 · Apr 22, 2006

I tend to think that it's far more likely for the men and/or pairs and/or dance teams to be able to do this than the ladies. Ladies have such a short shelf life these days. (yes I know it's an odd way to say it.) Some of the 16 year olds will may make it (i.e. Sasha metaling this year) but I don't think that we will have another Shiz any time soon. (Although I could be wrong) It seems that most of these ladies will probably go the way that Michelle and Irina did. (falling down the podium instead of getting higher) The men/pairs seem to have more luck (see Plushenko and TT/MM)

hockeyfan228 · Apr 22, 2006

Zhang/Zhang or Pang/Tong. I don't think Hongbo Zhao's Achilles tendon will last through another cycle. That would make eight years and three Olympics for both of them. And Zhang/Zhang would just be young enough to go for a fourth Olympics, if their health holds up.

Also Belbin/Agosto. They lasted through one Olympics in which they didn't qualify, and a second in which they won silver.

Vash01 · Apr 22, 2006

Theatregirl1122 said:
I tend to think that it's far more likely for the men and/or pairs and/or dance teams to be able to do this than the ladies. Ladies have such a short shelf life these days. (yes I know it's an odd way to say it.) Some of the 16 year olds will may make it (i.e. Sasha metaling this year) but I don't think that we will have another Shiz any time soon. (Although I could be wrong) It seems that most of these ladies will probably go the way that Michelle and Irina did. (falling down the podium instead of getting higher) The men/pairs seem to have more luck (see Plushenko and TT/MM)

I love the way you put it- "Shelf life for ladies"- that's what it really is. However, that has improved, IMO because many of them are not going to the pros (except for the 16 year olds - LOL). We are seeing skaters in their 20's (even past 25) win medals these days. They just don't seem to win the OGM (except Shizuka).

Vash

Jaana · Apr 22, 2006

Vash01 said:
Can you think of figure skaters that hung in long enough to finally win the big one?

Here are my thoughts on this.

Irina Slutskaya - She competed at the world level for 7 years before winning the world title in 2002.

Plushenko - hung in for 4 years after winning an Olympic silver and finally won the OGM in 2006.

Vash

Slutskaya has not won the big one (=Olympics), yet, but e.g. Yagudin applies. He participated in 1998 Olympics and won it in 2002.

Vash01 said:
Will Sasha Cohen, Michelle Kwan, or Irina Slutskaya finally win the big one (OGM) in 2010?

Vash

No, Kwan had her chance in 1998 and 2002, Slutskaya and Cohen in 2002 and 2006. After a skater has been on the Olympic podium twice and not won (Kwan and Slutskaya), a win is not going to happen anymore. Besides they both went downwards after having won a silver medal. Cohen was not in podium earlier, but her competitive nerves are not good in freeskate. Would that change during four next years? That does not sound likely to me.

Wolfgang · Apr 22, 2006

The Red Sox are not a valid analogy, they're a franchise, and thus have (theoretically) unlimited 'shelf life'....
To some extent, the same applies to John Elway, he was actually way past his 'prime' when he won the Soup Bowls, but the team (=franchise) had been improved around him.
Also, the Packers beat themselves rather than getting beaten by the Broncos in his first win.
Kwan and Slutskaya will definitely be 'too old' in 2010, in Ladies firue skating, 22 is pretty much 'the hill', and they're already over it......
Cohen may have a theoretical shot, but I'm not sure she actually likes to compete, or can keep up with the youngsters' (Meissner) jumping abilities.
Generally, figure skating is not a sport that encourages 'hanging around' for a long time and then winning something big, usually, you either win when you're 12 and continue to do so until your 'retirement' at 21, or you don't win.......(slight exaggeration, but you get the idea....

)

nuge · Apr 22, 2006

Denkova/Staviski finally won the world title which they should have won in 2004 IMO :rock:

Vash01 · Apr 22, 2006

I remember that Denkova-Staviyski competed in 1999 (may have been earlier too but I don't remember seeing them). So they have been competing for many years before winning in 2006.

I disagree about 2004. IMO N&K deserved to win that one. I did not really care for D&S's FD that year and they went downhill after that until they resurrected themselves in 2006.

Vash

Vash01 · Apr 22, 2006

Wolfgang said:
The Red Sox are not a valid analogy, they're a franchise, and thus have (theoretically) unlimited 'shelf life'....
To some extent, the same applies to John Elway, he was actually way past his 'prime' when he won the Soup Bowls, but the team (=franchise) had been improved around him.
Also, the Packers beat themselves rather than getting beaten by the Broncos in his first win.
Kwan and Slutskaya will definitely be 'too old' in 2010, in Ladies firue skating, 22 is pretty much 'the hill', and they're already over it......
Cohen may have a theoretical shot, but I'm not sure she actually likes to compete, or can keep up with the youngsters' (Meissner) jumping abilities.
Generally, figure skating is not a sport that encourages 'hanging around' for a long time and then winning something big, usually, you either win when you're 12 and continue to do so until your 'retirement' at 21, or you don't win.......(slight exaggeration, but you get the idea.... )

I included teams in my question. So it does not matter who the players are (at least to me); what matters is the name of the team.

John Elway is to be considered on his own merit even though football is a team game. He could have made mistakes at critical points but he did not. In fact I remember how he scrambled toward the end of the game on his rickety knees to finally win the superbowl for himself and for his team.

I am afraid you may be right about the FS ladies having to be young. Shizuka's win this year has restored my faith in the mature ladies (also Irina's comeback last year, at age 26).

Vash

slutskayafan21 · Apr 22, 2006

Actually the skaters that are most likely to win gold in 2010 after waiting 4 years are the silver medalists from 2006. Zhang/Zhang are the judges pets, and will continue to probably improve their basic skating and choreography, and as much as I would love Pang and Tong to win the next Olympics, it will probably be Zhang/Zhang turing 2006 silver to 2010 gold. Stephane has been the best skater in the world, outside of Plushenko, for the last couple years, by a significant margin as his record shows. Now with Plushenko likely retired he will be the one to beat the next 4 years, and if his knees are healthy I see him as the likely 2010 Olympic Gold medalist. He seems to be a smart competitor who is very eager to keep improving himself, and he is as young as most of his rivals coming up. Belbin/Agosto are very likely to turn 2006 silver to 2010 gold. Almost all of their rivals of this past quadrennial will be gone by then, and they were even beating most of them most of the time. Their potential rivals for 2010 are alot less developed and will have a hard time catching them by then, as they still can improve too. Olympic silver medalist Cohen has a much better chance than Kwan or Slutskaya of winning gold, if all 3 stay around, she will be 25 by then, no way in he$l will you see a 29-year old Kwan or a 31-year old Slutskaya win the Oly gold, sorry that is thinking totally out of the confines of reality, both will be lucky to even make it to the Olympics if they are somehow around by then. Still Cohen is less likely to win the next Olympics as Meissner, Asada, and Kim.

So the most likely people to win gold in 2010 after waiting around four years for it are certainly not the people Vash01 mentioned, but the people who were silver medalists in 2006, especialy in the dance, mens, and pairs.

slutskayafan21 · Apr 22, 2006

Red Dog said:
No, no and no.

Irina will be 31 in 2010. Has anyone that old (in skating terms) continued to compete in skating...especially at the top level? Sorry, not going to happen.

MK would be 29. That's also very old (in skating terms). I don't think she'll last that long, frankly.

Cohen would be 25. Sounds reasonable until you factor in what she's dealing with right now. Then I come to the conclusion she won't last anywhere near long enough to do 2010 in healthy condition. Besides, she's getting passed up left and right by youngsters. Her time is over. Her best shot was here in 06.

I agree with you on each point. I would miss seeing Irina skate, so I hope she moves to the U.S and does pro skating for awhile so I still see her skate sometimes. I think not going to Worlds after the Olympics, already indicates her amateur career is over. In fact, funny to think, can you recall a single skater who was healthy, still skipped the Worlds after the Olympics, and continued to compete other then making a comeback out of retirement? I cant. Kwan also will come to her senses soon enough, she might compete another year or two though, I kind of hope atleast 1 so I can see the programs she was planning to do this year, I hope that is what she chooses to skate to next year. However she would be wise to leave at age 26 or 27 at the latest. Granted if Cohen could get her nerves conquered for major competition she might be able to combat the superior technical ability of the youngsters with his PCS scores. I dont think that will ever happen for her, and she seems injury prone. She is young enough, but she does not seem to have the mindset to stay in the competitive field that long, and gets nervous when others around her are doing harder jumps and can compete better than she has shown in major events.

As for the other veterans, it's hard to tell who will rebound and who won't. But I have the most faith in Miki Ando at the moment.

I hope it is not too late for Miki Ando to fullfill the potential she showed in 2004. I remember how scary good her future looked then, and now it looks like she might end her career as a forgotten former prodigee with her 4th place finishes at one Worlds and two GP finals as her career highlights. That would be sign, and I would always remember what promise she looked to have, and how excited people were of her potential in 2004, if that is all she ever managed. It looks more and more possable, but she is certainly not too old. Maybe she can rebound? I would love to see her take on Asada in Japan.

R.D. · Apr 22, 2006

Granted if Cohen could get her nerves conquered for major competition she might be able to combat the superior technical ability of the youngsters with his PCS scores.

wasn't aware she had a sex change :rofl:

R.D. · Apr 22, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
I hope it is not too late for Miki Ando to fullfill the potential she showed in 2004. I remember how scary good her future looked then, and now it looks like she might end her career as a forgotten former prodigee with her 4th place finishes at one Worlds and two GP finals as her career highlights. That would be sign, and I would always remember what promise she looked to have, and how excited people were of her potential in 2004, if that is all she ever managed. It looks more and more possable, but she is certainly not too old. Maybe she can rebound? I would love to see her take on Asada in Japan.

I am not ready to count any of these people out. The only ones I'll truly count out (at this point) are Kwan and Cohen. (That said, maybe MK can still come back and win another national title, since we all know it's the Kwan Show...even last year it was.)

slutskayafan21 · Apr 22, 2006

Red Dog said:
wasn't aware she had a sex change

Sorry I meant "her". She is all girl for sure. :rofl:

krenseby · Apr 23, 2006

Re:

Forget Slutskaya and Cohen. They've already achieved the most they could - Olympic Silver and Bronze and 5 World Medals in Michelle's case and 2 in Irina's. The underachievers are Ando, Cohen, Kostner, Rochette, Suguri, and Sokolova. It would be gratifying to see Suguri and Cohen win Worlds. As for Sokolova, Ando, Costner, and Rochette, any medal would be an accomplishment, seeing how the three of them haven't medaled more than once, with the exception of Ando who didn't medal ever.

Jaana · Apr 23, 2006

Vash01 said:
I remember that Denkova-Staviyski competed in 1999 (may have been earlier too but I don't remember seeing them). So they have been competing for many years before winning in 2006.

Vash

I think the situation with ice dancers is rather different compared to singles skaters. Besides, they don´t need to jump.

SusanBeth · Apr 23, 2006

I haven't seen Viktor Petrenko mentioned. He won the Bronze in 88. It seemed like he had been around forever, but that may have been the effect of watching his Carmen program so many times.

Vash01 · Apr 23, 2006

SusanBeth said:
I haven't seen Viktor Petrenko mentioned. He won the Bronze in 88. It seemed like he had been around forever, but that may have been the effect of watching his Carmen program so many times.

Viktor won the bronze in the 88 Olympics when he was just 18. It was natural and expected for him to stick around for 1992- he did win the gold there (and finished 4th at the 94 Olys). I see this as a natural progression than any great obstacles he had to overcome (sure, he had to overcome Kurt Browning).

IMO Plushenko's situation was almost similar; he was 19 when he won the silver at his first Olympics. I did mention Plushenko but not Petrenko, so I am guilty (of something :laugh:

)

Vash

Winning the Big one after waiting for years

Vash01

R.D.

BravesSkateFan

Theatregirl1122

hockeyfan228

Vash01

Jaana

Wolfgang

nuge

Vash01

Vash01

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

R.D.

R.D.

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

krenseby

Jaana

SusanBeth

Vash01

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