Meissner vs Asada...

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 22, 2007

I believe Mao has the edge in scoring higher than Kimmie especially when one adds up the points for jumps. I don't see any difference on the other elements between the two, and the presentation by the two is certainly less than Kwan/Cohen.

On presentation, I saw a big difference in 2006 with Mao than her junior years but nothing further than that one big improvement. Kimmie, to me, is slower in showing her progress in improving her presentation, but if not this year, definitely next.

I also believe that the cleanliness of the 3x3s and 3A (should we see it) will have an affect on the PCS scores. Not fair, but that will happen.

One other thing, this topic is Mao v. Meissner and should have included Kim.

Joe

layman · Feb 22, 2007

Am I missing something...

For all those who praise Mao to the high heavens...don't you notice that she does not have a full repetoire of triples (she rarely performs the salchow and toe-loop), her spins are woefully wobbly and uncentered, the spin positions are sloppy and the spins are slow and laboured, her musical interpretation is nothing special (her sister is light-years better in this area), and she never shows any expression on her face. She has rarely had a clean competition this season (clean SP and LP) and has been known to falter under pressure. I just don't see her as unbeatable.

I think Kimmie is very competitive and comparable with Mao...both have weaknesses and both have strengths.

For those who praise Caroling Zhang to the high heavens...don't you notice the bad technique in her jumps...the way she kicks her free-leg up in the entrance to the lutz and flip, the flutz, the tiny jumps with little spring, the lack of total security in her jumping (which is very similar to what we saw with Sasha Cohen), the slowness in her skating and the lack of edge quality and control.

On the other hand, Mirai Nagasu has much more spring, much better jump technique, more secure edging and even better musicality. Mirai seems to be very competitive (and comparable) to Caroline.

Among the seniors I think Kimmie, Mao, Miki, Caroline Kostner, Yu-na, Joannie, and Emily will all be vying for the top spots.

Among the juniors, I think Nagasu and Zhang will go toe to toe for the top spot.

satorare · Feb 22, 2007

I calculated scores of non-jump elements in SP for Mao and Kimmie.
Basically, those conditions are same, therefore comparable.

Mao @ SA 16.4
Mao @ NHK 19.1
Mao @ GPF 18.7

Kimmie @ SA 15.8
Kimmie @ TEB 14.1
Kimmie @ 4CC 15.5

Kimmie's spins and footworks are top levels of ladies, but still not in Mao's realm.

Tinymavy15 · Feb 22, 2007

antmanb said:
Well here's the perfect jump plan for both skaters:

Kimmie

3Lz/3T 10.0
3A 7.5
3F/3T 9.5
3S x 4.95
3Lp x 5.5
3Lz x 6.60
2A/2T/2Lp x 6.71

Total 50.76

Mao

3A 7.5
2A/3T 7.3
3F/3Lp 10.5
2A or 3A x 3.63 or 8.25
3Lz x 6.6
3F x 6.05
3Lz/2Lp/2Lp x 9.9

Total 51.48 if the program contains only 1 triple axel or
56.10 if the program contains two triple axels.

If each one lands one triple axel in the program then the point difference isn't even a point. If Mao does successfully land a second triple axel then the point difference becomes mor around 5 points.

I don't think you can count Kimmie out seeing as how she appears to be building like she did last season. Also Mao has been up and down all season in the LP and there's particular reason to think that she will definitely be having a good night. She is a great SP skater so she will likely be in the lead after the SP (given the content in there) unless she falls. Kimmie seems to do pretty well rallying back from behind....

It going to be a good competition.

Ant

Mao's points of execution will probably be higer than kimmies, mao's jumps usually look effortless, and her entrances are harder. Not to mention her Program Components score.

clairecloutier · Feb 22, 2007

Mao Asada, to me, is an amazing talent. I have never seen anyone quite like her. She has it all technically. And she has IT.

But . . . one thing we don't know yet is if Mao is a great competitor. You can be the greatest skater in the world, but as much as that, you have to be a great *competitor* to win. This competitive quality--the ability to withstand pressure and consistently perform your best when the stakes are highest--is the difference between a great skater and a champion.

I'm really not sure yet if Mao is a great competitor. She's faltered and lost on several occasions this year, for reasons that are unclear. I don't think she's skated a clean long program yet this year (or maybe just one).

Kimmie is a good competitor. She may not be quite as naturally gifted as Mao. But Kimmie tends to bring out her best for the biggest competitions, such as Olympics and Worlds.

To beat Mao, all Kimmie needs to do is keep her competitive skills sharp, stay focused, skate clean, do her triple/triples, and continue to improve artistically. Do that, and she can win.

R.D. · Feb 22, 2007

But . . . one thing we don't know yet is if Mao is a great competitor. You can be the greatest skater in the world, but as much as that, you have to be a great *competitor* to win. This competitive quality--the ability to withstand pressure and consistently perform your best when the stakes are highest--is the difference between a great skater and a champion.

That's definitely true. Asada seems to be pulling just about even (2-2) when it comes to delivering this season. I do think the chance of her delivering in Tokyo will be like flipping a coin (well, not that simple of course but I'm talking strictly about CHANCE here).

Meissner- wouldn't say she's doing all that much better herself, but the difference is that her other competitors never stood up and delivered what was necessary to beat her. She's made mistakes in every competition so far this season, although her performances have been generally improving. Not only does she need to plan 2 3-3's but she also has to HIT them- something I have not seen her do yet this season. She's got her work cut out for her as well.

It's going to be a good one in March. Let's not forget the other competitors too, vying for bronze.

(in case you hadn't noticed, just kidding on that part.

)

Zuranthium · Feb 22, 2007

antmanb said:
Well here's the perfect jump plan for both skaters:

Kimmie

3Lz/3T 10.0
3A 7.5
3F/3T 9.5
3S x 4.95
3Lp x 5.5
3Lz x 6.60
2A/2T/2Lp x 6.71

Total 50.76

Mao

3A 7.5
2A/3T 7.3
3F/3Lp 10.5
2A or 3A x 3.63 or 8.25
3Lz x 6.6
3F x 6.05
3Lz/2Lp/2Lp x 9.9

Total 51.48 if the program contains only 1 triple axel or
56.10 if the program contains two triple axels.

Mao isn't allowed to do two solo 3Axles. Aside from the fact that the second triple axle would be hit with a .8 deduction for not being in combination, it also counts as using up one of her combinations (the "phantom sequence"). The very most she could do to maximum her points at the moment is to turn her second 2Axle into a 3Sal.

The big difference in comparing their "bests" is that Kimmie has only landed the Triple Axle in competition once...barely...while Mao has landed it at least a dozen times. Kimmie simply NEEDS that jump if she wants to be competitive with Mao.

~Z

Zuranthium · Feb 22, 2007

antmanb said:
Not necessarily. I don't think the ladies SP requirements have ever been changed to a double or triple axel. I think the double axel is still specified just like the combination is 3/2, 2/3 or 3/3 there's no mention of a quad for the ladies. Until the rules are changed if a lady wished to include a 3A in the SP she'd either have to do it as a combination or as a solo element with steps into it lpus a solo double axel.

Come to think of it, Mao does the steps into 3A already so she might be able to push her technical there.

Ant

Oops, I forgot that the ladies were required to do the 2Axle.

In that case, Mao and Kimmie should just keep their current short program jump layouts (although, it would probably be better for Kimmie to do a 3Flip/3Toe combination...she seems to be more consistent with that than the 3Lutz/3Toe).

~Z

R.D. · Feb 22, 2007

a DOZEN times? I thought she only did it at NHk and Japanese Nats. (Whatever it is though, it is true that she's more consistent with it than Kimmie has been).

I'm still not convinced that Kimmy absolutely NEEDS that 3A. It depends on what Mao does. The best thing for Kimmie would be for Mao to skate first. Then she'll know what to do...whether to throw it in or not. But I contend that if Mao totally throws it down, no matter what Kimmie (or anyone else) does Mao will win. The pressure's all on Mao.

I have a feeling though...since it's Japan...Mao might be skating last (or at least after Kimmie and/or Yu-na)...??

LuckyBear · Feb 22, 2007

Hey, what about Kim?

Joesitz said:
One other thing, this topic is Mao v. Meissner and should have included Kim.

Joe

EXACTLY what I was thinking!! I prefer Kim over both Mao & Meissner. Only, I don't know how Kim's back is feeling or how bad it might get til 2010. I am keeping my fingers crossed for her.

satorare · Feb 22, 2007

I rather say, consistent 3A is a MUST for Meissner to be the first contender when Mao falls. With or without 3A, she can't beat clean Mao.

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 22, 2007

LuckyBear said:
EXACTLY what I was thinking!! I prefer Kim over both Mao & Meissner. Only, I don't know how Kim's back is feeling or how bad it might get til 2010. I am keeping my fingers crossed for her.

There are strong feelings in this thread for Mao's win in Tokyo. Yet Kim, for me, is much closer to the lyrical style which I like. She's also got an arsenal of elements for a win. And I believe Kimmie can bring on some rumbling in the arena. Of the 3, I would definitely go with Mao as the favorite going into the competition, but she's not my favorite.

Joe

jsteam4501s · Feb 23, 2007

IF it is true - and I say IF - that "star quality" and "charisma" counts big time in international judging - and I'm saying unequivocally that it should NOT - then I guess that - and that only - would be the reason why so many of you put Asada so much higher on the pedestal than Kimmie. If Asada wins with a few visible mistakes over a clean and spectacular program by Kimmie, because she (Mao) has more "star quality" and "charisma", I would call that shamefully WRONG.
Mao and Kimmie ARE in the "same league" no matter how much more "lovable" and "charasmatic" Mao is.

I guess what I'm really saying is that NO skater - American, Japanese, or otherwise - should be awarded bonus points for whatever the judges' perception is of "star quality". If she is - then you might as well throw the whole judging system out the window, suspend competitive skating for a year - I mean NO events, folks - and start from scratch to create a new judging system.

Spun Silver · Feb 23, 2007

jsteam4501s said:
If Asada wins with a few visible mistakes over a clean and spectacular program by Kimmie, because she (Mao) has more "star quality" and "charisma", I would call that shamefully WRONG.

I don't think anyone would disagree with you. But the point is, that seems to be a very big IF. Mao has the technical edge, not just the "it" factor.

IMO you may be misinterpreting what folks are saying. There have been many comments about Kimmie's less than exciting presentation (although some see big improvement). By the same token, there are many comments about Mao having natural gifts - e.g., line, flow, musicality - that lead to high presentation marks.

If both skate clean, Mao wins. If Mao messes up and Kimmie skates clean, Kimmie (or Kim - the other Kim!) wins. If both Mao and Kimmie mess up, it depends on the points.

iloveaxel · Feb 23, 2007

jsteam4501s said:
If Asada wins with a few visible mistakes over a clean and spectacular program by Kimmie, because she (Mao) has more "star quality" and "charisma", I would call that shamefully WRONG.
Mao and Kimmie ARE in the "same league" no matter how much more "lovable" and "charasmatic" Mao is.

.

Who's arguing that Mao should absolutely beat Kimmie no matter what she does or does not?

You're overreacting. Most people just think Mao is the heavy favourite, nobody is saying Kimmie can't beat Mao.

I am a huge fan of Mao, however, I refuse to make any prediction. Ice is very slippery.

jsteam4501s · Feb 23, 2007

You're right, I probably was overreacting, but really, I meant no criticism of anyone posting here. Rather, I was expressing alarm toward a possible tendency of the Worlds judging panel to decide a really close pair of skater scores by the personality ("cute-ness"?) of one skater vs. the other.

(Red Dog or Mathman - one of you doesn't like the word "cute" at all - then am I correct in believing that you wouldn't be happy with the judges breaking a tie between Mao and Kimmie by the margin of Mao's greater "cuteness"?). :biggrin:

:

R.D. · Feb 23, 2007

You'd be referring to me.

All I say is: Given that the event is in Japan, Mao will get the benefit of a tie. That's my take on it.

antmanb · Feb 23, 2007

satorare said:
I calculated scores of non-jump elements in SP for Mao and Kimmie.
Basically, those conditions are same, therefore comparable.

Mao @ SA 16.4
Mao @ NHK 19.1
Mao @ GPF 18.7

Kimmie @ SA 15.8
Kimmie @ TEB 14.1
Kimmie @ 4CC 15.5

Kimmie's spins and footworks are top levels of ladies, but still not in Mao's realm.

The only scores that are actually omparable are the SA scores when they were at teh same competition with the same judges.

Ant

antmanb · Feb 23, 2007

Zuranthium said:
Mao isn't allowed to do two solo 3Axles. Aside from the fact that the second triple axle would be hit with a .8 deduction for not being in combination, it also counts as using up one of her combinations (the "phantom sequence"). The very most she could do to maximum her points at the moment is to turn her second 2Axle into a 3Sal.

The big difference in comparing their "bests" is that Kimmie has only landed the Triple Axle in competition once...barely...while Mao has landed it at least a dozen times. Kimmie simply NEEDS that jump if she wants to be competitive with Mao.

~Z

You're absolutely right - i didn't spot the zayak violation and the phatom sequence which would knok out the final jump combo.

Just as a question, i know the rules have been changed frequently - if you get a phantom sequence, or if you do a fourth combination - do you still get marks for the first jump and lose the marks of the second (and even third) jumps or does teh whole element get docked. I know that how plush lost the GPF to Sandhu that year when only two combos were allowed and he a did a third on the back of a triple axel and he got no points for any of it.

Ant

antmanb · Feb 23, 2007

Joesitz said:
There are strong feelings in this thread for Mao's win in Tokyo. Yet Kim, for me, is much closer to the lyrical style which I like. She's also got an arsenal of elements for a win. And I believe Kimmie can bring on some rumbling in the arena. Of the 3, I would definitely go with Mao as the favorite going into the competition, but she's not my favorite.

Joe

I agree and my preference is for Kim's style too, but the big factor that i've not heard anything about is how her back is healing. If she has resumed training, and if training is hurting her back. I'd rather she sit this worlds out if it means totally healing and being able to continue to skate.

Ant

Meissner vs Asada...

Joesitz (RIP)

layman

satorare

Match Penalty

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

clairecloutier

R.D.

Zuranthium

Match Penalty

Zuranthium

Match Penalty

R.D.

LuckyBear

satorare

Match Penalty

Joesitz (RIP)

jsteam4501s

Spun Silver

iloveaxel

Match Penalty

jsteam4501s

R.D.

antmanb

antmanb

antmanb

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