U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

R.D. said:

It's a bit strange (ironic in a way) that NBC has been less willing to toot the USA horn and hype our ladies than ABC (and ESPN) was...

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I think it was a bit strange for US Skating to leave Jeremy off the schedule and the three Ladies they chose are not necessarily USA's most exciting Ladies.

If US Skating and NBC are trying to get some viewers back they might have considered Mirai, Alissa, Ashley or newcomer Agnes rather than Alexe and Caroline. I am fine with Rachael because she is the current US Ladies champion and even though she did SA last year she medaled and also was a good bet to medal this year.

It might not be as easy to hype skating board members but looking at the way Alexe has skated lately and with Caroline going through a major transition the odds were always going to be on Kanako or maybe Caro being featured. Not to knock Rachael - and she did a good job - but she is not the type of skater to light a fire under an audience and boost viewership.

So if I had been selecting last May or June it would have been Mirai, newcomer Agnes and maybe Alissa or Ashley. Skate America is supposed to be the showcase in the USA leading into Natls. After seeing how the Ladies fared I think they did themselves no favors.

It was dull and the fact that I haven't gone back to watch a clip of any of the USA Ladies is not a good sign. I am a skating fan and if it is dull for me it might seem 10 times worse for those fans who only watch occassionaly.

I hear about "protecting" skaters but first ......don't you need something to protect

Japan had Mao and Kanako - probably their two most popular skaters at NHK. They also had Miki and Akiko at COC together. The thing that has to be considered is that a good skate from Ashely could have medaled and so could have Alissa.

If Agnes was on she could have won a medal and maybe created a little buzz.
I don't get it and US Skating should try and showcase more than one top skater at Skate America if they want to bring back fans.

I got a kick out of seeing Kanako on my TV which has a much bigger and better pic/reception than a stream on my computer. I feel like a real fan of hers and maybe that is a good thing......losing some of the nationalism. I was happy Kanako won and hope to see her skate Live in USA in the future.

Mathman said:

^ Yeah, I think Scott was just saying that she is a fine young skater with lots of potential.

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Maybe that was his intention - but it is not what Scott and the other announcers said. Not even close.

NBC chose Kanako's SP to open the show and it was the only SP from the entire event they put on the air. They called her exciting, an Olympic frontrunner, winner of the junior events last season, the next big star from Japan and gushed over the energy and charm of her SP.

That is why they started the show with Kanako. It's their job to sell the broadcast and skating - and to create some excitement - not to come off like they are bored or exist to please GS members.

Sure it is too early to predict Kanako's future - but what else was NBC supposed to do? Show Alexe, Caroline or Rachael? They do have advertsisers to make happy

^ You make it so hard to say, "I agree with you." It seems like I lose a point in the dispiriting Rachael bashing/defending wars if I do. If we could just leave out the part about how Rachael is single-handedly dragging U.S. figure skating down by being so blah... Couldn't we just think that silently and not have to say it in every post?

Anyway, to go back to post 1023...I agree 100%. USFSA has been criticized in the past for putting all their strongest skaters up against each other, thus allowing them to knock each other out of the Grand Prix Finals. I don't look at it that way at all.

Skate America used to be a big deal in U.S. skating circles, the second most important U.S. event next to Nationals. The best in the U.S. against the best in the world. Here is what I think they should have done.

First, try to get back the early spot on the GP calendar (although that horse has left the barn now.) Then they should have sent Rachael and Mirai. Then NBC should have advertised the event. Why bid on it and show it if you have no interest in attracting an audience?

They could have pitched it like this. "Last year Rachael Flatt won U.S. Nationals in a close contest that many felt should have gone to 2008 champion Mirai Nagasu. Here is a clip of each of their performances. What do you think? Well, now they are teeing up against each other for the first time this season. Tune in as they settle the score. But European champion Carolina Kostner and World bronze medalist Laura Lepisto (show clips) will have something to say about that!"

About Abbott, I think the U.S. champion always gets first shot at Skate America. Maybe he preferred a different assignment (or maybe they were holding a place for Lysacek.) When Johnny Weir was U.S. champion he always declined Skate America because it was too early in the season. (Good soldier Michelle Kwan did SA eight times, winning seven.)

Alissa probably preferred Skate Canada, since that seems to be her good luck charm.

Mathman said:

^ You make it so hard to say, "I agree with you." It seems like I lose a point in the dispiriting Rachael bashing/defending wars if I do. If we could just leave out the part about how Rachael is single-handedly dragging U.S. figure skating down by being so blah... Couldn't we just think that silently and not have to say it in every post?

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I dunno - I think I have been fair to Rachael....lately. I pointed out her injury situation but also said I think she needs her 3x3's or to eliminate the UR's to win. I still think that and would think that about any skater who is more noted for their jumps than artistry.

I thought Rachael looked more polished at SA than in the past and can see how some think she deserved to win yesterday.
Kanako was far from clean in her LP and if Rachael would have won I would have been happy for her and not seen it as controversial.

At the end of the show they interviewed Rachael and I thought she did good. I say that knowing she must have been a little disappointed to just miss winning but she didn't complain and sounded upbeat about her chances to skate in the GPF. She is definitely a very classy and gracious young lady.

Regarding her pcs - they were not as low as some of the posts led me to believe as she and Kanako were very close.
Rachael won the LP and lost this event in the SP. She also had too many URs which also cost her a chance to win.

With all of the talk about reputation scoring particularly in the pcs is it possible Rachael has been pegged as an average performer at best? Quite a few posters have said they liked Rachael's choreo and said they thought she "sold it" very well at SA.

A question - what does Rachael need to do to score higher in the components in front of intl judges?

At the end of the broadcast Scott mentioned the two URs Rachael got hit with and it sounded like he disagreed a little. I haven't read this anywhere else - but didn't Scott also say Rachael might have lost credit or been scored very low on one of her spins? Something about taking too long changing positions?

In an interview over at IN Rachael said she was in a fair amount of pain but was determined to just skate through it. Good for her for toughing it out because it looks like she will make the GPF. Had she pulled out that wouldn't have been possible.

She is a very good competitor which is something I admire about her. I hope she is feeling better soon and can train well and be at her best at the GPF.

She should have won...nuff said

Anyway, I hope she takes care of that injury and doesn't try to push through it and make it worse. Given that, it was surprising that she was still able to do well. I expected a mistake or two to be honest.

She needs to put this aside and hopefully continue to build up as the season progresses.

R.D. said:

She should have won...nuff said

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Maybe your user name should be "God Junior" if you want your opinion to carry so much weight.

How about this: why do you think she should have won?

Or as I previously asked - what does Rachael need to do to get more respect from the Intl judges?

To be honest after Rachael skated I thought she would be a point or two ahead of Kanako.
I also thought Caro would be able to skate her LP well enough to win.

So I was off a bit yesterday.

Rachael is very determined and considering she was not at her best or able to try her best tricks yesterday she did well for herself.

The judges liked Kanako better but Rachael's Silver was what she needed and should see her through to her first GPF.

Mathman said:

^ Yeah, I think Scott was just saying that she is a fine young skater with lots of potential.

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Kanako Murakami is not in a class of Mao Asada.
Kanako's main competitors are Raechel, Mirai, Akiko and Laura Lepisto for rare bronze medal chances at major events.

If nobody make mistakes, Laura Lepisto will always come out as a winner among the four.

Rachel must have high self esteem. Good for her, because she seems to get very little encouragement from the international judges. She does not give up and in many ways reminds me of a gymnast. Nerves of steel that one. Not my fav, but I do admire her competitive spirit.

Ginask8s said:

Rachel must have high self esteem. Good for her, because she seems to get very little encouragement from the international judges. She does not give up and in many ways reminds me of a gymnast. Nerves of steel that one. Not my fav, but I do admire her competitive spirit.

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I heard people say that she is new Bonaly, which means the judges won't let her win if they can help it. I think what's holding her back is that she does not have a aesthetically pleasing presence on the ice. And she doesn't have the same kind of power that made Midori and Tonya unique. Yet, even those two got a lot of criticism for not appearing ladylike and elegant. The skating world is harsh since there is a certain pageant factor that makes up the biases in judging especially when it comes to the ladies.

janetfan said:

How about this: why do you think she should have won?

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You can't be serious. You didn't just ask me that...

Wow.

Flatt = class of a very mediocre field that night.

She hit the jumps. She sold her program. The others didn't.

Not the only one who thinks so. I rest my case.

Or as I previously asked - what does Rachael need to do to get more respect from the Intl judges?

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Now this is a much better question. I thought her presentation was MILES better than it was a couple years ago when she was just going through the motions. And still, that change is not being reflected in the program components. I just don't get it. The scoring system confuses me. SMDH.

R.D. said:

You can't be serious. You didn't just ask me that...

Wow.

Flatt = class of a very mediocre field that night.

She hit the jumps. She sold her program. The others didn't.

Not the only one who thinks so. I rest my case.



Now this is a much better question. I thought her presentation was MILES better than it was a couple years ago when she was just going through the motions. And still, that change is not being reflected in the program components. I just don't get it. The scoring system confuses me. SMDH.

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Did I miss something or did Rachael and Kanako both get credited for 5 triples? So Kanako hit as many triples as rachael did - plus Kanako hit a pretty impressive 3T+3T.

It is easy to see Kanako skates much faster than Rachael and is probably a better spinner. Since skating is a SPORT doesn't that matter?

Apparently this is the season of Skating Skills and Kanako had a better score for SS.

On a different thread I think mathman said he thought Rachael deserved higher marks for CH and IN. I think I agree with him on that but that leads back to the question:

Why doesn't Rachael get more respect from the Intl judges?

janetfan said:

Why doesn't Rachael get more respect from the Intl judges?

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I am rarely expressing my opinion on ladies skating, but I will here, for starters, one of the main reasons is because her basics, she has a laboured stroking, slow for a senior lady of her claibre.

SkatingAnalyst said:

Kanako Murakami is not in a class of Mao Asada.
Kanako's main competitors are Raechel, Mirai, Akiko and Laura Lepisto for rare bronze medal chances at major events.

If nobody make mistakes, Laura Lepisto will always come out as a winner among the four.

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Mao is overrated as far as i'm concerned. Remember Mirai beat Mao in the SP at Worlds and if she hadn't had a meltdown in the LP she could have won. Mirai also beat Lepisto at the Olympics and in the SP at Worlds. Mirai's biggest problem isn't other skaters but herself if and when she puts it all together she can beat anyone in the world especially now with this weak field.

janetfan said:

On a different thread I think mathman said he thought Rachael deserved higher marks for CH and IN.

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Nope. I'm not buying it.

CH: This is the most vague of the program components, but I don't think either program program uses the ice surface particularly well, and in Rachael's LP the way it's broken up into "acts" just seems disjoint and obvious. Kanako and Carolina's had much better flow and unity across the different sections. With Rachael, I know precisely when she's done with her hard jumps, when she's taking a rest, when she is trying to get the audience on their feet, and it has almost nothing to do with the music per se. Her programs are just not tied together very well.

IN: Very few of the jumps work well with the music, either because she can't time them correctly or because they were not placed well to begin with. Her spins are always a mess. In her LP, the final part of her combination spin where she rises from a cannonball into a Y-spin as the music swells upward could work if she was a faster spinner, could stay on the music, and didn't travel all over the place while doing it, but she can't pull it off and it hurts the IN badly. The part where she mugs hearing a gunshot and then... what, runs down into an alley and does a very slow camel spin with a poor position in order to indicate that she's dying? It's obviously trying to relate to the music and theme of the program, but for the life of me I don't know how or what's supposed to be going on. And so on and so on and so on.

Just "feeling the music" and connecting with the audience a little more does not mean her presentation has improved that much, not the way it's defined under the rules.

doubleflutz said:

Nope. I'm not buying it.

CH: This is the most vague of the program components, but I don't think either program program uses the ice surface particularly well, and in Rachael's LP the way it's broken up into "acts" just seems disjoint and obvious. Kanako and Carolina's had much better flow and unity across the different sections. With Rachael, I know precisely when she's done with her hard jumps, when she's taking a rest, when she is trying to get the audience on their feet, and it has almost nothing to do with the music per se. Her programs are just not tied together very well.

IN: Very few of the jumps work well with the music, either because she can't time them correctly or because they were not placed well to begin with. Her spins are always a mess. In her LP, the final part of her combination spin where she rises from a cannonball into a Y-spin as the music swells upward could work if she was a faster spinner, could stay on the music, and didn't travel all over the place while doing it, but she can't pull it off and it hurts the IN badly. The part where she mugs hearing a gunshot and then... what, runs down into an alley and does a very slow camel spin with a poor position in order to indicate that she's dying? It's obviously trying to relate to the music and theme of the program, but for the life of me I don't know how or what's supposed to be going on. And so on and so on and so on.

Just "feeling the music" and connecting with the audience a little more does not mean her presentation has improved that much, not the way it's defined under the rules.

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I think you make a good point that Rachael interprets the music at select moments; like you said there is a moment that you know she is trying to play to the audience. The problem with that is, of course, that outside of those moments, there is a choreographic and interpretive vacuum. Perhaps she needs to integrate the choreography into her program as a whole, so it seems like she is interpreting most of the time and not just during certain segments.

^ Still, compared to other programs, at least I can tell what kind of music Rachael is skating to.

For most skaters, try this experiment. Turn off the volume, put on your favorite tune, and watch the program skated to that music. It looks the same.

^ I've done that before. So true.

Mathman said:

For most skaters, try this experiment. Turn off the volume, put on your favorite tune, and watch the program skated to that music. It looks the same.

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For most skaters in the GP events, or most of the skaters in the GP events who are supposed to be Rachael's competition, given the level she is supposed to be competing at (ie, GP finalist/potential world top five)?

How true would that be of Rachael if you left out the parts where she's basically just mugging and posing, and not actually skating?

To me, the only lady on the scene who has much going on in the interpretation department is Mao Asada. She even took a decent shot at that dreadful Prelude in C sharp minor that she bore like an albatross last season.

I have to say I really don't expect much of skaters in this category. Skaters have enough to worry about trying to rotate three times in the air and stay on their feet. To put choreography and musical expression in between the elements, like rachael did at Skate America, is really about all you can hope for -- and in any case is better than nothing.

Unless you are Michelle Kwan. Then you can make a program out of nothing at all. Here's my triple Lutz, here's my double Axel, here is the address to send my medal to (wait, let me carve in in the ice for you.) Now that's interpretation!

Mathman said:

To me, the only lady on the scene who has much going on in the interpretation department is Mao Asada. She even took a decent shot at that dreadful Prelude in C sharp minor that she bore like an albatross last season.

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Really? I thought a commentator said that her Prelude was more enjoyable with the music turned off. I think that amounts to saying that it was an interpretive failure, and that her outstanding skills were better appreciated without the droning background sound.