American Girls--what's wrong?

Kwanford Wife · Nov 12, 2010

gkelly said:
Why not? I don't understand how you draw that conclusion.

Just because she didn't do triple loops? But she wouldn't need that to make top 6 in the short and qualify for the final flight -- only 2-3 triples are needed in the short program

Translating top 6 SP into medals is a different story. But Fumie Suguri managed to do so a few times without trying the loop. Elena Liashenko managed a few European medals. If they could do it, Yuna surely could.

Under 6.0 judges would've held her down because she didn't have a shot at winning... add reputation scores and federation standing. But I could be wrong... maybe a better example would be Surya Bonaly to illustrate my point of different systems affecting different skaters...

And to end on topic, I still think Mirai is the US's best chance this cycle - but the question comes down to does she? Mental issues have little baring on judging systems...

miki88 · Nov 12, 2010

Kwanford Wife said:
Under 6.0 judges would've held her down because she didn't have a shot at winning... add reputation scores and federation standing. But I could be wrong... maybe a better example would be Surya Bonaly to illustrate my point of different systems affecting different skaters...

And to end on topic, I still think Mirai is the US's best chance this cycle - but the question comes down to does she? Mental issues have little baring on judging systems...

I think she would have made the final flight but what would might have held her down a little bit is not skating cleanly. If I remember correctly, the Olympics was one of the rare events Yuna actually skated both programs cleanly. Skating cleanly seemed to weigh much more than good technique under the old system. This of course applies to a lot of current skaters. Alas, different times, different trends.

krenseby · Nov 12, 2010

Kwanford Wife said:
. Mirai will get better, I hope. As will Rachel. Caroline's body doesn't seem to embrace her figure skating dreams - the bad technique just underscores this sad fact. The one who I can't understand is Ashley. All the potential - none of the will. Its kinda sad. Here's wishing them all the best.

I really hope Rachel does get better; she is one of those skaters I look at and think to myself, "With some tweaks, she can really do a lot for her scores." I do think Rachael can deal with difficult choreography and perform it well, but she has not yet managed to impress the judges.

As for Ashley, I am really not sure what's holding her back. And as far as Caroline is concerned, a changing body in the midst of an attempt to revamp her technique could deal a fatal blow to her career.

PolymerBob · Nov 12, 2010

If Caroline has the guts to revamp her technique, she may have the guts to revamp her body as well. We will see which direction she is going in by Nationals.

silverlake22 · Nov 12, 2010

PolymerBob said:
If Caroline has the guts to revamp her technique, she may have the guts to revamp her body as well. We will see which direction she is going in by Nationals.

With the amount she exercises, I'm guessing there isn't much Caroline can do about her body, without taking extreme unhealthy measures. It's just the way she's built, she can't really help that. Maybe she can change her style to fit her new bodytype though.

blue_idealist · Nov 12, 2010

It may be something to do with the new age requirements for worlds. In the past, the American girls who were successful were young jumping beans like Tara, or Sarah Hughes who was relatively young when she won her OGM. Now, you can't even go to worlds until you're 16 (that is the age, right? iirc). I think that America produces good girls, but not WOMEN.. when they have to focus on things other than becoming the best jumper, as quickly as possible, their system falters. I know I'm not making my point that clearly but I hope somoeone gets what I'm saying.

Nadine · Nov 12, 2010

Bah humbug, all this doom & gloom!

There's NOTHING wrong with the American Girls, they'll do just fine, thank you very much.

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO RACHAEL & CAROLINE @ Skate America!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

arty:

Olympia · Nov 12, 2010

blue_idealist said:
It may be something to do with the new age requirements for worlds. In the past, the American girls who were successful were young jumping beans like Tara, or Sarah Hughes who was relatively young when she won her OGM. Now, you can't even go to worlds until you're 16 (that is the age, right? iirc). I think that America produces good girls, but not WOMEN.. when they have to focus on things other than becoming the best jumper, as quickly as possible, their system falters. I know I'm not making my point that clearly but I hope somoeone gets what I'm saying.

I get it, and I think it's an interesting point. I'm not sure it's true all the time, because if you remember, Kristi and Nancy Kerrigan were both in their twenties when they competed at the Olympics. But it could certainly be true some of the time without having to be true every time. This is worth examining.

Poodlepal · Nov 13, 2010

I was just about to write that I hope at least one American lady wins a Grand Prix, but as I'm typing this I remember one already did. Sorry Alissa, for almost forgetting you!

Unfortunately, I don't think Alissa is going to make it another 3+ years. As of right now, Mirai and Rachael are the US's best hope for a world medal of some color. And if one of them doesn't get at least a GPF bronze or a world bronze this year, I think that will be it for their skating careers. They will be put permanently in a category with Angela Nikodinov, Jenny Kirk and Tonia Kwiatkowski, good but not great skaters who can go to worlds but have no chances of medaling. If one or both of them skate clean--but lose to someone who doesn't, because the judges found a wrong edge or a short rotation on a combo--then I'll know they are not the ones. I worry more about that than Mirai having a meltdown, actually. She may be helped by some counseling or hypnosis or visualization or something, but I don't know what could be done when the judges just don't seem to like them or their style of skating.

blue_idealist · Nov 13, 2010

Olympia said:
I get it, and I think it's an interesting point. I'm not sure it's true all the time, because if you remember, Kristi and Nancy Kerrigan were both in their twenties when they competed at the Olympics. But it could certainly be true some of the time without having to be true every time. This is worth examining.

Lol I'm glad someone got my unclearly-expressed point. It seems like in the last decade the phenomenon I described occurred a lot (Tara, Michelle in her earlier years - although she did have success later, Sarah, Kimmie - and then she fell off the radar, even Mirai's surprise win at Nationals 2? years ago, Caroline Zhang showing a lot of promise and then falling off the radar). Maybe it didn't happen so much during Kristi and Nancy's time when things like triple-triple combinations, although somewhat important, were not AS important. The late 90s and early 00s were like the golden age of jumps, when jumps were of prime importance, such as the quad in the mens' too.

R.D. · Nov 13, 2010

Poodlepal said:
Unfortunately, I don't think Alissa is going to make it another 3+ years. As of right now, Mirai and Rachael are the US's best hope for a world medal of some color. And if one of them doesn't get at least a GPF bronze or a world bronze this year, I think that will be it for their skating careers. They will be put permanently in a category with Angela Nikodinov, Jenny Kirk and Tonia Kwiatkowski, good but not great skaters who can go to worlds but have no chances of medaling.

At least Nagasu and Flatt were (are?) top 10 caliber skaters...which makes it more frustrating that they weren't good enough to medal.

If one or both of them skate clean--but lose to someone who doesn't, because the judges found a wrong edge or a short rotation on a combo--then I'll know they are not the ones. I worry more about that than Mirai having a meltdown, actually. She may be helped by some counseling or hypnosis or visualization or something, but I don't know what could be done when the judges just don't seem to like them or their style of skating.

Nagasu has melted down twice...in a row...in the FS after leading in the short. I think she might have done it a third time at a GP last year. While I don't join those posters who say she's hopeless/another headcase, if it happens again (say, at Nationals), that may be cause for concern. Maybe already it could be seen as a red flag. But it's still too soon to know...she's been dealing with an injury, and unlike certain skaters there actually HAVE been times where she's risen to the occasion, sooo.....

ever · Nov 13, 2010

YUNA's clean LPs including 3loop. and 3loop

Kwanford Wife said:
Under 6.0 judges would've held her down because she didn't have a shot at winning... add reputation scores and federation standing. But I could be wrong... maybe a better example would be Surya Bonaly to illustrate my point of different systems affecting different skaters...

And to end on topic, I still think Mirai is the US's best chance this cycle - but the question comes down to does she? Mental issues have little baring on judging systems...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I18Xz9U3Ofc&feature=related (Yuna' 2003 LP)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=009PmBVxZDI (07COR LP) :love:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZWHmqmfq2o (3loop) :love:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGYVwr_A3bw (If under 6.0) :love:

Oh, Sorry for off-topic

Jammers · Nov 13, 2010

Maybe the US was just meant to have a long slump. Think about it the only think that probably stopped the US from dominating womens skating since 1952 was the 1961 plane crash. Also i think american coaches didn't do a very good job at adjusting to the new scoring system. Hard to believe but the last real strong skater that has come along is probably Sasha Cohen and over 10 years ago.

mishieru07 · Nov 15, 2010

FlattFan said:
Rachael's technique is quite sound. Her lutz and flip are fine. Her loops, salchows, and toes are as good as anyone's out there. She's a technical skater. What's wrong is the judges don't like her style.
I think Rachael would be more successful under 6.0. Look at Tara, Sarah. A typical Rachael FS could give them a run for their Olympics FS.

Rachael is technically sound and very proficient. What she lacks is in PCS, where she gets absolutely no love from the judges at all, which makes sense, considering she has other flaws like posture and isn't exactly good at presenting and selling her programmes. Sort of like the Zhangs from Pairs: even when clean, they still place below teams who made mistakes.

I think it's just a natural lull. Russian ladies was in a lull after Slutskaya and now they suddenly have a huge pack of talented youngsters. It takes multiple factors to create a world/ Olympic champion: natural talent, good coaching, effort on the part of the skater, funding, mental toughness and so on. Maybe the stars just failed to align: it took North American dance decades to finally reach the top of the Olympic podium, and the quartet who did are exceptionally gifted skaters, possibly the most talented to come around in a long time. Skating is also getting increasingly popular in non Western countries like China and Japan. With a larger talent pool, the top competitors are likely to pose a greater challenge to the Americans and the Europeans, who traditionally dominated the sport. CoP is also more demanding in terms of clean technique - wrong edge takeoff and underrotation is more heavily penalized now, which hurts skaters with poor basics.

I don't think all is lost; The US has promising juniors like Gao, Jiang, Siraj, Lam. There's also Mirai (who is still recovering from a foot fracture mind), and others who are working on their technique like Alissa and Caroline Z. Rachael could actually be a real podium threat if she can fix her flaws, given her typical consistency.

wonderlen3000 · Nov 16, 2010

Well this year, its a great chances for all the U.S ladies to get qualify for the GPF and earn some medal. Both Kim and Rochett gone and Asada not qualifying, its either die trying or pack your skate and go to college for the U.S ladies. Kanako, Rachael, Calrolina are already in and Ando, Chizney (assuming she doesn't bomb) and either Makarova or Susuki or Marai (if she win TEB) will be likely to be in. That leave possibily 2 or 3 U.S ladies and at least one of them should have no problem getting a medal. It has been what, since 2005 that no american lady earn any GPF medal.

PolymerBob · Nov 16, 2010

wonderlen3000 said:
Well this year, its a great chances for all the U.S ladies to get qualify for the GPF and earn some medal. Both Kim and Rochett gone and Asada not qualifying, its either die trying or pack your skate and go to college for the U.S ladies. Kanako, Rachael, Calrolina are already in .............

Not to be a wet blanket, but Rachael is not yet in. If all 6 events have a different winner, and those girls make the podium in the events they don't win, Rachael is out. If another girl has 2 silvers, and her higher score is more than Rachael's, then she outranks Rachael.

FlattFan · Nov 16, 2010

PolymerBob said:
Not to be a wet blanket, but Rachael is not yet in. If all 6 events have a different winner, and those girls make the podium in the events they don't win, Rachael is out. If another girl has 2 silvers, and her higher score is more than Rachael's, then she outranks Rachael.

Here's some scenarios for Rachael to stay home
1. Alena wins CoR, (Ksenia/Akiko) silver with higher combined score, and Miki third. Alissa at least third in TEB. Very unlikely because it's assuming Miki has an off day, Ksenia has an off day, Akiko has an off day, and Alena does not have an off day.

2. (Ksenia/Akiko) go 1,2 and Miki third in CoR. Alissa at least third.

Both scenarios, the tie breaker will be between Rachael and one of (Ksenia/Akiko). Mathematically possible, but if it plays out that way, it's like Secretariat winning the triple crown of thoroughbred racing. :biggrin:

silverlake22 · Nov 16, 2010

People need to stop it with this Perkova winning COR nonsense. It's just not going to happen. Alena is always super sloppy and her skates are always full off step outs, turn outs, flutzes, traveling spins, and clunky skating. 6 or 7 people at COR are better than her so her winning gold is just like a fantasy at this point. Miki could do all doubles and still probably beat her.

R.D. · Nov 16, 2010

You know, people need to stop it with this Christina Gao hyping non...well...hmm...I mean...

Not to be a wet blanket, but Rachael is not yet in. If all 6 events have a different winner, and those girls make the podium in the events they don't win, Rachael is out. If another girl has 2 silvers, and her higher score is more than Rachael's, then she outranks Rachael.

Mathematically speaking, isn't that very unlikely, though? I know she's not in 100%, but it might be a case of declaring a basketball team who is up by 12 points with a minute left in the 4th the winner of the game...I mean, the other team COULD theoretically come back, but...

silverlake22 · Nov 16, 2010

R.D. said:
You know, people need to stop it with this Christina Gao hyping non...well...hmm...I mean...

Mathematically speaking, isn't that very unlikely, though? I know she's not in 100%, but it might be a case of declaring a basketball team who is up by 12 points with a minute left in the 4th the winner of the game...I mean, the other team COULD theoretically come back, but...

Rachael's all but in, some very strange things would have to happen for her not to make the GPF.

And I think most people agree Gao is superior in almost every way to Perkova.

American Girls--what's wrong?

Kwanford Wife

miki88

krenseby

PolymerBob

silverlake22

blue_idealist

Nadine

Olympia

Poodlepal

blue_idealist

R.D.

ever

Jammers

mishieru07

wonderlen3000

PolymerBob

FlattFan

Match Penalty

silverlake22

R.D.

silverlake22

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