- Joined
- Nov 30, 2013
I just found a neat video on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMuf1MAPHko
What does everyone think of each 3Lutz-3Toe?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMuf1MAPHko
What does everyone think of each 3Lutz-3Toe?
I also think people are making a mistake in writing W&P off. If they can hit all their levels (a big if with them) they definitely have a shot.
Julia should ditch the very hard entry into her triple lutz combo. The judges dont credit those unlike it is a very high quality jump, and she has enough issues with a perennial flutz and getting enough height or speed to do that combination really well.
Ladies:
Shots at gold- Kim, Asada, Lipnitskaia
Shots at as high as silver- Suzuki, Sotnikova
Shots at bronze- Kostner, Gold, Wagner, Murakami
Wild card for a medal: Li
Men:
Shots at gold- Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez
Shots at as high as silver- Takahashi, Machida (he's my darkhorse to win gold, if the others mess up, but realistically he'll get silver at tops)
Shots at bronze- Abbott, Plushenko, Ten (if any of them go clean in both programs, which I doubt they will)
Wild card for a medal: Brown
Pairs:
Shots at gold- Volosozhar & Trankov, Savchenko & Szolkowy
Shots at as high as silver- None; I think the top 2 spots will be a la Ice Dance (I could picture a perfect Canadian team spoiling for silver, but it's highly unlikely)
Shots at bronze- Pang & Tong, Duhamel & Radford, Moore-Towers & Moscovitch, Stolbova & Klimov (only with perfect skates on home ice)
Wild card for a medal: Bazarova & Larionov
Dance:
Shots at gold- Virtue & Moir, Davis & White
Shots at as high as silver- Nobody else
Shots at bronze- Bobrova/Soloviev (who will have to really mess up to lose bronze), Pechalat & Bourzat, Capellini & Lanotte
Wild card for a medal: Weaver & Poje
I have no idea why people see C&L as having a real medal shot. They needed I&K to bomb the FS basically to barely win Europeans, and were dead last including a distant last in PCS at the Grand Prix final. At this point I would give all of B&S, P&B, W&P, and I&K (for sure, especialy in Russia) stronger medal chances than them, which equates to theirs being virtually nothing. I also think people are making a mistake in writing W&P off. If they can hit all their levels (a big if with them) they definitely have a shot.
I actually think B&S going back to their last years FD is good news for the other contenders and helps a team like W&P to have more shot at the bronze. As rubbish as their FD was this year, the judges were giving it good scores, and this is too late to make a change like this. I wouldnt be surprised if we dont see them skate well at the Games, and it being hard for the judges to hold them up this time.
P&B are the real favorites for the bronze at this point, not B&S. They have beaten B&S handily both times they met this season. Unless P&B run into problems I think they will get the bronze, even in Russia, but they are prone to mistakes and I wouldnt be at all surprised if they make them; and if they do I could see W&P capatilizing just as easily as a struggling B&S. W&P just need to improve their OD where they have lost ground all year, and make sure they hit their levels in both programs as that is where they are inconsistent. They will get PCS comparable to B&S and P&B and they are capable of very high GOE points. If they skate closer together and with more speed the PCS in their OD which hasnt been stacking up as well as the PCS in their FD this year, will improve.
I actually think B&S going back to their last years FD is good news for the other contenders and helps a team like W&P to have more shot at the bronze. As rubbish as their FD was this year, the judges were giving it good scores, and this is too late to make a change like this. I wouldnt be surprised if we dont see them skate well at the Games, and it being hard for the judges to hold them up this time.
P&B are the real favorites for the bronze at this point, not B&S. They have beaten B&S handily both times they met this season. Unless P&B run into problems I think they will get the bronze, even in Russia, but they are prone to mistakes and I wouldnt be at all surprised if they make them; and if they do I could see W&P capatilizing just as easily as a struggling B&S. W&P just need to improve their OD where they have lost ground all year, and make sure they hit their levels in both programs as that is where they are inconsistent. They will get PCS comparable to B&S and P&B and they are capable of very high GOE points. If they skate closer together and with more speed the PCS in their OD which hasnt been stacking up as well as the PCS in their FD this year, will improve.
She actually has 4th best odds to win OGM. I don't see it though, even if she skates her best I think she scores in 190s. Will that be good enough to medal? Probably not, but I suppose I should have put her with Gold and Wagner, because they won't break 200 either. Murakami probably has a chance at Bronze, like they do, if she skates clean and others make mistakes.
No way that a truly clean Asada would finish behind Julia with the jumps she is planning. People are debating whether a clean Asada would even win over a clean Kim since her planned base value is like 10 points higher. However Asada is not even capable of skating her current planned program cleanly. So if what you meant is if Julia skates cleanly and Mao skates as cleanly as she can possibly do (which is probably equal to her best performance this season so far, whichever you thought that was, maybe NHK), then yes Julia might come out ahead in Russia.
A clean Sotnikova (which there is a very small chance of happening) might come out ahead of both for the silver in that case though. The protocals show she would have won Europeans over Julia had she done a clean long with the triple lutz-triple loop she had planned, and she won Nationals over Julia with both being only one mistake from a perfect competition (Julia in the short, Adelina in the long). The Europeans is more crucial though as some suggest Russian Nationals is biased to Sotnikova, but even Europeans indicated Adelina having the edge had she gone clean.
I just found a neat video on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMuf1MAPHko
What does everyone think of each 3Lutz-3Toe?
Yuna's is bigger. Technique on the second jump not as good. She tends to UR quite a bit these days (will be interesting to see if they call her on it in Sochi, both of hers at KOR Nationals were < ) because she takes off way too early on the toe loop, causing it to require more rotation than it should need to get around.
Julia has a Flutz 65% of the time, but it's not severe. Her jumps are a lot more controlled than Yuna Kim's.
If I had to pick, I'd pick Lipnitskaya's. Yuna's combo has two redeeming aspects: Size and the Take-Off Edge on the Lutz.
However, Lipnitskaya's jumps are incredible because of the amount of control she has on her landings, the fact that she lands going straight backwards (not even a chance to question her rotation), and the position she can get on her landings - and she HOLDS those landing positions a lot better than Kim. Additionally, her technique on the back half of her combination is textbook, which is why she can throw a toe loop onto almost anything (or add it back in later, easily, if she misses it early on like at Europeans).
From a GOE standpoint, Yuna's would score higher as long as the judge didn't spot a UR when it happens because the take-off issues on her 3T back end aren't anything most judges would penalize as long as the jump was clean.
Sotnikova is a better overall jump than both of them, and has all triples. She has Yuna's size and Lipnitskaya's rotation and landing finesse.
Sotnikova is a better overall jump than both of them, and has all triples. She has Yuna's size and Lipnitskaya's rotation and landing finesse.