Will all but mens be gold and bronze battle

[eggnogkitty]

I like Kolyada in the short, but not the long. Sadly, the judges seem to let the PCS carry over, despite the inferior packaging of his Elvis FS.

While I agree somewhat personally I think Chens PCS are even more inflated than Kolyada or anyone elses. Just because he does a bunch of quads does not merit the kind of PCS he gets. I think if he were say Chinese his PCS and GOE would much lower as well, as we see with someone like Boyang, but being from America and doing all those quads, he automatically is given bloated scores he often doesnt deserve in every other category too.

 

[eggnogkitty]

Ha, I was only 10 years old in 1994, so I can’t seem to recall who the favourite was to win, is Oksana vs. Nancy a better comparison, or am I forgetting someone else?

Oksana and Nancy were definitely widely expected to battle for gold, as they ultimately did. Surya Bonaly was given an outside shot of gold, and Lu Chen, Yuka Sato were given solid shots of a medal, although none of gold. Josee Choinard and Tanja Szewcenko were given very long shots of the bronze.

 

[Procrastinator]

While I agree somewhat personally I think Chens PCS are even more inflated than Kolyada or anyone elses. Just because he does a bunch of quads does not merit the kind of PCS he gets. I think if he were say Chinese his PCS and GOE would much lower as well, as we see with someone like Boyang, but being from America and doing all those quads, he automatically is given bloated scores he often doesnt deserve in every other category too.

That's a bit unfair. He's not a bad performer and has good body tension and carriage; his skating skills are also decent. There's no comparison to Boyang. Nathan is on his way to becoming an artist, Kolyada is basically there, and Boyang will probably never get there.

 

[eggnogkitty]

That's a bit unfair. He's not a bad performer and has good body tension and carriage; his skating skills are also decent. There's no comparison to Boyang. Nathan is on his way to becoming an artist, Kolyada is basically there, and Boyang will probably never get there.

I agree he is better than Boyang, but his PCS are still far more inflated than they would be if he were Chinese or from another country. In addition to the unfair quad bonus of his PCS. His GOE are also inflated. Being American, the massive hype machine on him, and the hysteria over all the quads he has, defintiely boosts his scores in other areas. There is no question the most overscored mens skater is Nathan Chen right now.

 

[Procrastinator]

I agree he is better than Boyang, but his PCS are still far more inflated than they would be if he were Chinese or from another country. In addition to the unfair quad bonus of his PCS. His GOE are also inflated. Being American, the massive hype machine on him, and the hysteria over all the quads he has, defintiely boosts his scores in other areas. There is no question the most overscored mens skater is Nathan Chen right now.

That is definitely a dubious proposition. If he were Russian, his PCS would be at least 2-3 points higher. His programs are well-constructed, well-choreographed, and generally performed with at least some flair though not complete artistic abandon. I would hardly say there is a "hysteria." Even when terry gannon tried to say he was the favorite for gold, tara and johnny were like "um." He's being hyped in the U.S. mainstream for commercial reasons, but I think the judges are assessing him fairly enough. He's inflated to the extent that all skaters, even Yuzuru and Javier, are. His components are still in the high 8's. I'm not sure in what world that would be an overscore given how inflated all the scores are now.

 

[Putina]

I thought V&M retired? Didn't they win at Vancouver?

 

[crazydreamer]

IMO, four of the last five games had surprise female gold medalists, and I think the same could definitely happen again this year.

 

[Globetrotter]

That's a bit unfair. He's not a bad performer and has good body tension and carriage; his skating skills are also decent. There's no comparison to Boyang. Nathan is on his way to becoming an artist, Kolyada is basically there, and Boyang will probably never get there.

I think you missed the point that it was about overinflation. Nathan has better SS than Boyang for sure but is his PCS really deservin of 9s? Is his SS even at say Patrick Chan or Yuzuru or Shoma level? His P/E and IN deserves to be scored at Javi level? No I don't think so, not yet.

 

[Putina]

If you are referring to 2014 nobody sane believed that. With the Games in Russia Julia (the perceived Russian #1) was probably even the favorite before the ladies individual short program started although there were atleast 5 contenders for gold as Kim, Kostner, Asada, and maybe even Gold each had a realistic chance at gold if either the top 2 gold favorites Julia and Adelina both made a couple huge mistakes as both (Adelina imparticular) have been known to do.

If you are referring to 2010, well that is what occured.

Hah. That is an interesting rewrite of history. Though I do think it has the virtue of absurdity, meaning it will fool no one.

 

[Putina]

After watching the Nationals, I think Vincent Zhou is a better all around skater than Boyang Jin. The gap between Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou is not that big. We can have two American men on the podium.

 

[Mrs. P]

After watching the Nationals, I think Vincent Zhou is a better all around skater than Boyang Jin. The gap between Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou is not that big. We can have two American men on the podium.

I don't really agree. I've seen Boyang live (and Vincent in person at nationals) and though he has weaknesses, I'd argue Boyang has better skating skills and speed than Vincent. Boyang also generally rotates most of his quads.

 

[Crossover]

After watching the Nationals, I think Vincent Zhou is a better all around skater than Boyang Jin. The gap between Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou is not that big. We can have two American men on the podium.

I agree that Vincent is more an all-around skater than Boyang and I used to call him "Stylish Zhou" because of his delicate style and musicality before he brought in quads as his arsenal. However, the big difference between them is that Boyang doesn't have UR issues on his quads, while Vincent currently has. Though I think Vincent's URs are worsen by his body changes as he grows taller than himself at 2017 Worlds. So I don't know whether he can solve the issues once his body changes are over. While Vincent doesn't have a problem with 3A compared to Nathan, there are possibilities that he can narrow down the gap between Nathan, but not likely within this season.

 

[medoroa]

While I agree somewhat personally I think Chens PCS are even more inflated than Kolyada or anyone elses. Just because he does a bunch of quads does not merit the kind of PCS he gets. I think if he were say Chinese his PCS and GOE would much lower as well, as we see with someone like Boyang, but being from America and doing all those quads, he automatically is given bloated scores he often doesnt deserve in every other category too.

I like Boyang a lot, he's a nice kid, but this is way overstating it. Chen has always carried himself well and performs with conviction and purpose (that's the sort of thing ballet is good for although it doesn't make anyone automatically "artistic"), and on top of that he has developed good choreography and better skating skills. PCS gets inflated by TES but this is true for all the top men getting high TES, and singling Chen out for it is biased.

Kolyada and T/M lack that "performing with conviction and purpose" thing, except maybe Kolyada in the SP.

 

[eggnogkitty]

Hah. That is an interesting rewrite of history. Though I do think it has the virtue of absurdity, meaning it will fool no one.

LOL perhaps you have a short memory but before the ladies event (after the team event where young Julia spearheaded the win) nearly everyone was predicting a coronation for Julia. The question was if any of the other contenders- Kostner, Kim, Asada, or the other Russian Sotnikova could even challenge the new darling of skating, and if Yu Na Kim now even had so much of a chance of defending her title at all. Anyone with an actual memory will know what I say is an apt summary of reality so I dont need to fool anyone for stating what anyone with decent memory and who was following skating at the time knows it absolutely correcdt.

Kim and Asada a lock for the gold and silver ala Vancouver my ass. The fairly obvious set up for a Russian win (it just wasnt the Russian most people believed it would be since she messed up) aside for a moment, Asada in fact had not even been gold or silver at any of the worlds from 2011-2013, and only medaled (or merely made top 5) in 1 of those 3, so how could she be a virtual lock for gold or silver. She was a possible contender for a medal, maybe even a shot for the gold if she had a really stellar competition, no more than that.

 

[rain]

IMO, four of the last five games had surprise female gold medalists, and I think the same could definitely happen again this year.

I don't know how much of a surprise it will be, what with the ridiculously inflated PCS the judges have gifted her all year, but I think it's already been set up for Zagitova to be that "surprise" winner this year. Despite her technical content, I don't think she should even be in the same league as the top women, but there you have it.

 

[bobbob]

Don't underestimate T/M in pairs. Their programs aren't great, but their elements are all-around more consistent than the other teams (though maybe not now that Aliona has dropped the more difficult throws...and S/H struggle on the SBS jumps). And their PCS have been sky-high all season in spite of their mediocre programs. It's a three-way contest for gold.

Perhaps S/H struggle on SBS jumps, but if S/H struggle, then how would you describe T/M's performance on SBS? Of the three teams, S/H and S/M both have SBS issues but T/M are the least consistent of all. T/M certainly have a shot at gold, but a decidedly lower chance than the top two.

 

[bobbob]

I don't really agree. I've seen Boyang live (and Vincent in person at nationals) and though he has weaknesses, I'd argue Boyang has better skating skills and speed than Vincent. Boyang also generally rotates most of his quads.

I find Boyang's skating to be underrated. Yes, his movements may be robotic and not very graceful, but based on skating skills alone he is stronger than Vincent. And I believe based on analysis of one footed skating/crossovers he is stronger than Uno/Chen, in the middle tier with Fernandez/Kolyada below Hanyu/Chan. Uno has a nice quality to his movements, but I don't think it should make up for his poor skating skills.

 

[Putina]

I don't really agree. I've seen Boyang live (and Vincent in person at nationals) and though he has weaknesses, I'd argue Boyang has better skating skills and speed than Vincent. Boyang also generally rotates most of his quads.

It's a tough call for me. Jin is faster and his jumps are bigger so he has advantage there. I do like Zhou's delayed rotations, though. I think it is crazy that he can delay the rotations even in his quads(!). As to underrotation I am assuming Zhou will fix it in time. If not, then well he will not likely be a contender for gold in the internation events.

Where Zhou gets points is his musicality and interpretation. While his posture leaves a lot to be desired, he definitely connects to music and tries to convey the meaning. It is kind of opoposite with Nathan Chen in that he (= Chen) has wonderful posture and lines yet his interpretation comes off weak. It is hard to say that Jin has either beautiful lines or musicality.

 

[eggnogkitty]

I don't know how much of a surprise it will be, what with the ridiculously inflated PCS the judges have gifted her all year, but I think it's already been set up for Zagitova to be that "surprise" winner this year. Despite her technical content, I don't think she should even be in the same league as the top women, but there you have it.

I think that depends on Medvedeva. Her injury might open the door, especialy with all the pressure already on her. She cant beat a clean Medvedeva though, I doubt she can come even close. Her scores even for her best skats vs the best ones Medvedeva has (eg- she cant even score as high skating perfectly at her own Nationals with inflated Nationals scoring as Medvedeva has already scored outside of Russia). The TES if both are clean would be about equal at best for Alina, and PCS Medvedeva would be way ahead. So it really almost entirely depends on Medvedeva and Medvedeva alone to whether Zagitova can grab the gold, but with uncertainty around Medvedeva, and with the massive pressure on her as the biggest favorite for the ladies OGM in like 40 years plus, Zagitova certainly has a gold chance of some sort.

While 4 of the last 5 winners were surprises the only huge one was Sarah Hughes IMO. Tara Lipinski was the reigning World Champion and the 2 time GPF Champion. Even if MK was touted the favorite after her U.S Nationals win, I refuse to call this a big surprise. Shizuka Arakawa was a former World Champion and Japanese #1 with Asada out, Cohen had never won a major title, and the favorite Slutskaya had shown signs of clear vurnerability in the months leading up to the Games and often lost World and Olympic events (2000 and 2001 to Kwan, 2002 to Hughes) as the favorite. And a Russian winning ladies in Sochi was quite predictable, if it were Julia it would have been no surprise, the only reason it was a small surprise is it was not Julia.

And even though I concede Sarah Hughes as a big surprise even she was a medalist at every event for about 2 seasons straight, had beaten Slutskaya and Kwan already that year, and Slutskaya and Kwan were having problems with consistency that season while Hughes was not.

 

[medoroa]

Shizuka Arakawa was a former World Champion and Japanese #1 with Asada out

She was not. Suguri was the national champion and Nakano had medaled at the GPF with Asada. Arakawa won worlds in 2004 but had burned out in the 04/05 season and placed 9th at worlds. Arakawa herself has said that until the very last moment, she was unsure if she'd even get picked for the Olympic team.

Hughes was obviously not a dark horse coming out of nowhere, but Kwan and Slutskaya had beat her at the GPF and if Kwan hadn't been 1st after the SP (not a few have said this was hometown bias), Slutskaya would have won Olympics.