Will all but mens be gold and bronze battle

[eggnogkitty]

At the Games. The mens looks pretty crazy and open. Hanyu, Uno, and Chen are probably the first 3 favorites in any order, but any of the 3 could win or be right off the podium easily. Fernandez could win the gold or be off the podium too. Kolyada also has a real shot of a medal IMO, especialy if the men stay as inconsistent as they have been this season. Patrick Chan and Boyang Jin cannot win, but Boyang could surprise with a bronze if he peaks and the others make mistakes, just as happened at the last 2 worlds. Chan would need a miracelous upgrade to medal, plus help from his competitiors, but it is not impossible. There are probably a couple other dark horses for a bronze, Denis Ten if he comes up with one of his unexpected great showings in a messy event for instance.

The pairs, ladies, and dance seem more straight forward though.

Dance most of all. It is clearly only Virtue & Moir vs Papadakis & Cizeron for the gold and silver with Papadakis & Cizeron having a slight edge now. Even a big fall by either team would not jeapordize them being in the silver spot at this point. Then the bronze is open between all 3 U.S teams, Weaver & Poje, as the main 4 contenders and very outside shots for Capellini & Lanotte and Bobrova & Soloviev perhaps.

Ladies is almost as sure. Medvedeva vs Zagitova for the gold and silver, unless Medvedeva is so injured she misses the game or is extremely hurt while competing. Medvedeva if reasonably healthy and ready is still the heavy favorite, and would need to make major mistakes for even Alina to beat her, but rustiniess and pressure could be a factor. Then the bronze is pretty close between Maria (presumably 3rd Russian at Games), Kaitlyn Osmond, possibly Miyahara, and possibly a couple others, although IMO those are the main hopefuls.

Pairs is most likely to be Sui & Han and Savchenko & Massot in a 2 way battle for gold and silver, although it is a bit less set than the dance and ladies. Still either team would have to have a subpar competition like S&M had at Skate Canada for someone else to sneak in. The bronze is probably mainly between Tarasova & Morozov vs Duhamel & Radford with an outside shot for Stolbova & Klimov, Yu & Zhang, and maybe the French.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

 

[Crossover]

Just for correction, not Jin & Zhang, but Yu & Zhang. Peng & Jin are far from the podium contention even though they are a good team but receive as a Chinese third team and Chinese fed doesn't do politicking for their skaters unlike other big federations.

 

[eggnogkitty]

Just for correction, not Jin & Zhang, but Yu & Zhang. Peng & Jin are far from the podium contention even though they are a good team but receive as a Chinese third team and Chinese fed doesn't do politicking for their skaters unlike other big federations.

Yes I agree. I think long term they will be better than Yu & Zhang though. Hao Zhang is probably in his mid to late 30s now (I know he is listed at 32 or 33 but lets be real, his age is clearly falsified, I remember what he looked like in SLC supposably at 17) and isnt going to get any better than he already is, and does not have the presentation or performance abilities or overall abilities to ever win a big title, even if he is physically strong.

 

[andromache]

Don't underestimate T/M in pairs. Their programs aren't great, but their elements are all-around more consistent than the other teams (though maybe not now that Aliona has dropped the more difficult throws...and S/H struggle on the SBS jumps). And their PCS have been sky-high all season in spite of their mediocre programs. It's a three-way contest for gold.

 

[eggnogkitty]

Don't underestimate T/M in pairs. Their programs aren't great, but their elements are all-around more consistent than the other teams (though maybe not now that Aliona has dropped the more difficult throws...and S/H struggle on the SBS jumps). And their PCS have been sky-high all season in spite of their mediocre programs. It's a three-way contest for gold.

I could see them possibly being with the other two after the SP for sure, but cant see them even coming close in the long. They havent been close to clean all season and the program itself is rubbish and probably their worst ever. And even if they skated cleanly if that horrid long program were to ever beat a clean or semi clean Sui & Han or Savchenko & Massot, watch a Sotnikova level controversy against Team Russia erupt.

Given that they just lost to Duhamel & Radford at the GPF I think they are more likely to be fighting to hang onto the bronze than to do better than that.

 

[TontoK]

Before we get too invested in this thread, can someone get Yuna and Mao on the telephone for comment?

 

[eggnogkitty]

Before we get too invested in this thread, can someone get Yuna and Mao on the telephone for comment?

If you are referring to 2014 nobody sane believed that. With the Games in Russia Julia (the perceived Russian #1) was probably even the favorite before the ladies individual short program started although there were atleast 5 contenders for gold as Kim, Kostner, Asada, and maybe even Gold each had a realistic chance at gold if either the top 2 gold favorites Julia and Adelina both made a couple huge mistakes as both (Adelina imparticular) have been known to do.

If you are referring to 2010, well that is what occured.

 

[Crossover]

Don't underestimate T/M in pairs. Their programs aren't great, but their elements are all-around more consistent than the other teams (though maybe not now that Aliona has dropped the more difficult throws...and S/H struggle on the SBS jumps). And their PCS have been sky-high all season in spite of their mediocre programs. It's a three-way contest for gold.

I don't think it's a three-way contest for gold in pairs as T/M are not that consistent as you see in the GPF. Tarasova's consistency on SBS jumps is not solid as well. Though their consistency is still better than Stolbova/Klimov. I still think that the Russian fed can switch their favorism to Stolbova and Klimov over T/M if they can beat T/M at Euros. Likewise, D/R can not be excluded for the gold medal contention since their two-time World title isn't a fluke and they beat S/M at Skate Canada although it happened at their home in the early season.

 

[eggnogkitty]

I don't think it's a three-way contest for gold in pairs as T/M are not that consistent as you see in the GPF. Tarasova's consistency on SBS jumps is not solid as well. I still think that the Russian fed can switch their favorism to Stolbova and Klimov over T/M if they can beat T/M at Euros. Likewise, D/R can not be excluded for the gold medal contention since their two-time World title isn't a fluke and they beat S/M at Skate Canada although it is their home.

I think T&M and D&R have roughly the same chances of gold at this point which is very slim for both (5% max maybe each), maybe a bit more of silver (15-20% for each). They have seperate issues, D&R that they have already peaked, their PCS and GOE is inferior to others, and others have caught up to them in base value. Plus their only completely clean competition ever was probably the 2016 worlds which they would need to duplicate and then still need a bit of help from both S&H and S&M to win. T&M that their long program doesnt work for them, simply isnt that good, and they havent even been consistent with it thus far this year.

I do think Tarasova & Morozova have the higher likelihood of the bronze compared to D&R as their bombing completely is less likely than D&R, the skating totally cleanly is probably higher for T&M despite their LP issues this year, and if both teams skate something medium (most likely) they will likely go with T&M overall as they are less dependent on their big tricks for points as D&R, and their short program is likely to be higher which will probably give it to them.

 

[blue_idealist]

Mostly agreed, although I think Kolyada is also a dark horse for bronze and C/L are more likely to land on the podium in dance than W/P at this point.

 

[eggnogkitty]

Mostly agreed, although I think Kolyada is also a dark horse for bronze and C/L are more likely to land on the podium in dance than W/P at this point.

I think W&P are less consistent than C&L but if they skate cleanly have a much higher likelihood of possibly beating all 3 U.S teams than C&L would ever have. I cant see enough small mistakes happening for C&L to win the bronze, or it is really unlikely.

I agree on Kolyada. Definitely a shot of a medal (probably not gold). My omission of him was a mistake and brain lapse.

 

[Procrastinator]

My biggest nightmare is T/M winning pairs gold. It can happen. The judges don't care that their programs scream 5th grade talent show with 10x less charisma. They're the number one Russians and they have the TES, so they'll gladly give them gold if they're clean and others aren't. I want S/M to win just because savchenko deserves it, and S/H can have their moment in 2022 at home, but I realize the OGM isn't a "lifetime achievement award" (except in 2010, when it seemed to be!). I'm also afraid S/M left their best skates on GPF ice.

As for men's, the writing is on the wall for a Kolyada bronze or even upset. Not something I agree with, but, again, looking at the way the judges have been scoring, it's definitely in the cards. I don't think Hanyu will manage to win. He's been injured and, as much as I hate "curses"/historical fallacies, the reigning world champion has never won the men's OGM unless he was american. Only in 1972 did Ondrej Nepala manage to do it. This is the deepest men's field in history.

 

[eggnogkitty]

My biggest nightmare is T/M winning pairs gold. It can happen. The judges don't care that their programs scream 5th grade talent show with 10x less charisma. They're the number one Russians and they have the TES, so they'll gladly give them gold if they're clean and others aren't. I want S/M to win just because savchenko deserves it, and S/H can have their moment in 2022 at home, but I realize the OGM isn't a "lifetime achievement award" (except in 2010, when it seemed to be!). I'm also afraid S/M left their best skates on GPF ice.

As for men's, the writing is on the wall for a Kolyada bronze or even upset. Not something I agree with, but, again, looking at the way the judges have been scoring, it's definitely in the cards. I don't think Hanyu will manage to win. He's been injured and, as much as I hate "curses"/historical fallacies, the reigning world champion has never won the men's OGM unless he was american. Only in 1972 did Ondrej Nepala manage to do it. This is the deepest men's field in history.

Agree with all of that although unlike you I like Kolyada a lot, and would love to see him with a big result at the Games. Especialy since the mens event this year has been garbage anyway, despite the seemingly super deep field.

 

[Sam L]

Am I the only one who thinks the men’s event isn’t as open as we’d like to think? As much as I want Patrick to win, or Javi to medal, I think it’s between Nathan and Shoma. Yuzuru has had the injury and I’ll be surprised if he wins.

 

[SarahSynchro]

Before we get too invested in this thread, can someone get Yuna and Mao on the telephone for comment?

Then call up Irina and Michelle, Nancy and Tonya...

After the gong show that was US Nationals last weekend, never have I felt more strongly towards the phrase: “ice is slippery”.

 

[eggnogkitty]

Am I the only one who thinks the men’s event isn’t as open as we’d like to think? As much as I want Patrick to win, or Javi to medal, I think it’s between Nathan and Shoma. Yuzuru has had the injury and I’ll be surprised if he wins.

It could be that way but it certainly isnt impossible for Yuzuru to skate strong at the Games, and if he did skate his best he would win for certain, and if he skated close to it he would have a good shot.

Fernandez can still score atleast in the same range as anything Nathan and Shoma can, and he often comes up big in big events, even if not always.

 

[eggnogkitty]

Then call up Irina and Michelle, Nancy and Tonya...

After the gong show that was US Nationals last weekend, never have I felt more strongly towards the phrase: “ice is slippery”.

ROTFL at Nancy and Tonya. Just shoot me with laughter already That was nothing more than a hype machine. Everyone in the know knew Tonya had no hope in hell at those Games.

She was a contender in 92, not in 94. Her 8th place was either about what or a bit better than rational people expected.

 

[Procrastinator]

Agree with all of that although unlike you I like Kolyada a lot, and would love to see him with a big result at the Games. Especialy since the mens event this year has been garbage anyway, despite the seemingly super deep field.

I like Kolyada in the short, but not the long. Sadly, the judges seem to let the PCS carry over, despite the inferior packaging of his Elvis FS.

 

[SarahSynchro]

ROTFL at Nancy and Tonya. Just shoot me with laughter already That was nothing more than a hype machine. Everyone in the know knew Tonya had no hope in hell at those Games.

She was a contender in 92, not in 94. Her 8th place was either about what or a bit better than rational people expected.

Ha, I was only 10 years old in 1994, so I can’t seem to recall who the favourite was to win, is Oksana vs. Nancy a better comparison, or am I forgetting someone else?