Is Johnny Weir America's Great Hope for Gold in Torino?

How does Johnny Weir compare with each of the following in terms of GOLD at Torino? (Consider he is consistent with quad(s) by the time 2006 rolls around.)

Evgeni Plusheno
Brian Joubert
Lindemann
Sandhu
Buttle
Griazev
Lysacek
Timothy Goebel

Which seasoned male skaters listed above will give Johnny little competition; some competition and a lot of competition.

Footnote question: When was the last Oly gold medalist in the Men's Division for the USA?

Joe

IMO

Tough competition: Plushenko, Joubert, Goebel

Some competition: Lindeman, Griazev, Lysacek and Sandhu if Sandhu keeps it together

Little competition: Buttle and some whippersnapper who shows up.

Johnny has a lot of work ahead of him. they are all seasoned skaters!!! I think he can do it.

And who was that masked American gold medalist riding off into the dust?

Joe

I honestly don't see Johnny winning a medal of any color against these guys in 2006. I think he might be ready in 2010.

If Timmy gets his body aligned, he has a great shot at the silver medal. He might even take gold if Pluskenko messes up. I think Tim has more difficulty in his programs than any of the top guys (including Plushenko) and that makes up for his lack of style on the ice. Though I want to add that Tim isn't that bad a skater however it seems as if he hasn't quite found a style that works for him. Tim is really bland on the ice and he might need to work with a different choreographer than Lori Nichol b/c that combination does not seem to be working out.

Mikey Weiss might pull a Paul Wylie and stun everyone at the 2006 Games. He certainly has similar inconsistencies in his skating that remind me of Paul.

You didn't mention Stephen Lambiel. He and Joubert are going to be in that mix.

I think that 2006 is way too soon for Johnny. He's a very young skater and he hasn't been skating as long as the other guys. Plus Johnny is very juniorish in his presentation. It's nice (not my style) but he lacks the oomph of the other guys and I don't think that Johnny is going to get a consistent quad in one year.

Timmy Goebel and Plushy have been landing them for YEARS which gives them consistency. Now Johnny might get a quad, but from what I've seen of his triples, I don't think he will be consistent with that jump. Johnny's triples are nice but don't have the height and power that Plushy has on his jumps or the fast roation that Timmy gets on his jumps.

And even if Johnny gets a quad, unless he radically changes his presentation, I don't see him railroading Goebel, Plushenko, Joubert and Lambiel (and who knows who else will come up in Torino).

Brian Boitano was the last US male Olympic gold medalist in 1988. The Russians (Soviets) have had a stranglehold on the men's title since Viktor Petrenko won in 1992.

I don't know if I will expect Johnny to be a threat for a medal, but it would be great if he could pull a "Sarah" and go into Turino as an underdog with no pressure and have a skate of his life. I am fascinated by his skating and can't wait to see how he develops in the next few years.

As for the gold, I am going to make a huge prediction and say it won't be going to Plushenko. I just have a gut feeling. I am REALLY hoping Tim pulls out another medal, don't care what color.

The biggest thing that will either help or hurt Johnny, is injuries. If any of the top guys (Plushenko, Joubert, Goebel) have injuries, then Johnny will have a much better shot at a medal; however, if everyone is healthy it will be tougher for him. I hope everyone is healthy so we get a great show down w/ the men! I'd love to see the U.S. get a medal, but I want everyone to perform well.

The top tier will be Plushenko, Goebel (if he is healthy), Joubert, Lambiel.

Next up are Klimkin, Sandhu, Lindenmann.

Next are the young ones -- Weir, Lysacek, Griazev. I could also put Weiss and Buttle in this category.

All in all, I think there are too many ahead of Weir, though you never know.

Gosh, how could I leave out Lambiel? He is definitely my GREAT HOPE for GOLD. It's not because I am anti American, it's just that I really dig his skating - quads or no quads.

Joe

I think Goebel has a better chance for a gold than Weir.

At this time I have a strange feeling that Lysacek might actually have a better chance of winning a medal in 2006 Turin than Weir.

These I consider battling about the medals in Turin Olympics (in no particular order): Plushenko, Lambiel, Buttle, Joubert, Goebel, Lysacek and Weir.

I don't want to make this comparison until next year, to see if/how:

a. Goebel regains his form
b. Lindemann proves that he's made the leap into the elite Men's flight
c. Weir lands at least one quad consistently
d. Klimkin heals from his injury and trains under Kudriatsev
e. Lambiel skates after he finishes his exams and trains full time

I still consider Plushenko the front-runner, and the gold his to win or lose.

Sorry guys, did I miss something? I thought that Dortmund was Lindemann's swan song. Is he pulling a Weiss (postponed retirement)?

I don't see Johnny "pulling a Sarah" for 2 reasons. 1. He has more of a Weiss/Cohen personality (bold proclimations of his own greatness before he's proven anything) rather than a Hughes personality (never talked herself up in public, just quietly rose the skating ladder while others dissed her on the web). 2. Already he's the next "hype-king" after like 5 minutes on the scene. Johnny going into Turin underappreciated? Somehow (and his being the subject of this thread reinforces this for me) I doubt it.

hockey fan, I totally agree. I don't want to play this game until next year when we will know more. Right now for the come from behinders, I would go for Lambiel. I do like him! But he needs consistency on his 3A's and quads, and I think for Turin, that at least 2 quads in the program is a requirement.

A healthy Plush can always do 2, Joubert is doing 2, Goebel does 2 to 3 when healthy. That's what is going to be needed for Turin. At least 2 quads. I see them as the top tier.

I think Johnny is going to need more speed to pull a good quad. Not that he can't get it. He just needs the speed. An although I like his basic stroking and technique, somehow he is too inward a skater to really ring my bell. I think he just needs more time...2010 is maybe his year. The gap between 1 quad in a program and 2 quads is significant.

I want to see how Timmy comes out of his problems. I have read a couple reports that since all the stretching and chiropractic he has gone through that his back is now not as tight and his basic skating looks better. It will be interesting to see how this develops. I think he would do better with a non Lori Nichol program. And a different costume designer. If he is healthy, he has a good shot at a medal, and I would like to see him get one.
Any color.

I want to see how Plush's surgery goes. I think Plush will grab the goldmedal if his injuries don't have a bad progression.

Evan seems to have a real problem jumping that last hurdle. He has Orser disease-hi ho silver. Even if he has a quad by Turin, I don't see him yet as a competitor.

Lindemann has had exactly one really good competition, and that at home. I want to see whether Dortmund was a breakthrough or a fluke before I comment on him.

I always like Klimkin. He could pull a Wylie if he can stay healthy
and the others fold.

Joubert seems to have a lot of presence in competitions. I expect him to do well in 2006. But I don't like his style. Too much fist pumping in the middle of the program. Bad quality spins. Choreo too bare. He has 2 quads in a program now. He will be there.

Li had a bad season this year, and we don't really know why. But he has great jumps and may get it all together in 2years. He has to learn how to skate the whole length of an LP.

Weiss when he is on 2 foots his quads. In some ways that's harder to overcome than not having them or falling on them. Somebody is going to have to fix that technique. I haven't seen any improvement in it this year.

It's really too early for me to even guess who the top players will be, after Plushy.
At this point, you'd have to say that Joubert has the best shot at winning if Plushy doesn't skate well. As far as Johnny goes ... I love his style and presentation already (which will get even better I'm sure), but I am not totally convinced he will be able to land two quads in each program ... which he will need to win gold ... maybe to even get on the podium for that matter. Only time will tell ... next season should be a very interesting one, seeing which skaters make their moves.

Umm....am I the only one who remembers SLC 4th place finisher and two time world bronze medalist Takeshi Honda?

What about Li and Dambier? Griazev and Weir may be this months's flavors, but I still think it's a wide field.

It is fun to predict something two years ahead in this age of FS though. 1996, who here predicted Todd off the podium and Phillippe's comeback? Who left 96 worlds thinking, now Tara's a shoe in to win and Lulu's lucky if she she can barely make the podium? 2000, who predicted Hughes to win and MK to have a mistake filled season of struggle and strain?

berthes ghost said:

Umm....am I the only one who remembers SLC 4th place finisher and two time world bronze medalist Takeshi Honda?

What about Li and Dambier? Griazev and Weir may be this months's flavors, but I still think it's a wide field.

It is fun to predict something two years ahead in this age of FS though. 1996, who here predicted Todd off the podium and Phillippe's comeback? Who left 96 worlds thinking, now Tara's a shoe in to win and Lulu's lucky if she she can barely make the podium? 2000, who predicted Hughes to win and MK to have a mistake filled season of struggle and strain?

Click to expand...

Not to mention who in 1992 would have predicted the 1994 OGM would be a then-unknown Ukranian girl who'd never competed before.

You beat me to it - I was gonna mention Honda too. He was only out this year because of injury - if he can overcome that, he may well be back in the mix. You're right it's a very wide field - this season especially has shown just how deep each field is, not just men but all of them. It's certainly gonna be exciting leading up to Turin.

I think those who will almost definitely be in the mix for the medals will include Plushenko, Lambiel, Joubert, assuming all those are healthy. Goebel and Honda will depend on their injuries. Li could be in the mix too, depending on his progress. Lindemann could be there, depending on if he stays in and if Dortmund was a one-off or a sign of things to come. Others who could be in with a chance include Sandhu, Weir, Weiss, Dambier, Klimkin, even van der Perren if he gets his big jumps consistent, not to mention the younguns who have two years to improve on the splashes they've made. It's certainly gonna be one to watch.

it's too soon to tell... but I hope not... I hope Tim gets back in the game and whoops up on everyone... missing this season has hopefully made him very "hungry" to get back in and win some medals!

If Plushy is healthy in 2006, his main competition will be Joubert, who IMO is still developing, and has not found his own personality (but might, by 2006). If Tim is healthy, and back to his 3-quads performances, with better artistry (I expect that to happen) it will be too close to call between these three. Plushenko's presence on the ice, and his strong basics may give the gold to him. However, if someone else wins worlds in 2005 (in Moscow, of all the places!) that could change the landscape going into Turin considerably.

In order to be competitive with these three, Johnny will need 2 quads and more expression in his skating. Considering how quickly he has developed into a national champion, it is not an impossibility, but he will need a lot of help- mistakes by the top 3. Afterall in 1994, who could have predicted a Urmanov-Stojko-Candeloro podium? Anything can happen. It is just that it (Johnny winning gold) is a low probability event, like Sarah's in 2002.

A few other skaters to consider:

I expect Lambiel to become a real force, if he can land 2 quads (even one) consistently in competitions. I would hold off my opinion of Lindeman until I see him give a stellar performance at a neutral site. I love Klimkin, but it is so rare to see him skate a nearly clean performance (with a quad combo)! Unless he is free of injuries, and makes great strides with a new coach, I don't see him in this mix. That is sad because I would really love to see him realize his potential. He may be another Sasha Abt, who is always brought down by bad luck.

Sandhu could be the Paul Wylie of the 2006 games. If he continues to have a Jekyll-Hyde personality in his skating, it will be tough to predict where he will end up- top or middle (not the bottom though). I still doubt that he will win the gold, unless there are injuries to 2 of the top 3 skaters. In fact injuries have not made that big a difference for Plushenko this year at least.

I expect Lysacek to be at nearly same level as Johnny by 2006. Somehow I don't get the same feeling about Griazev, and I am not sure why. In any case I think these 3 will be around in 2010, along with a few others, with Johnny leading the way.

Vash

>If Tim is healthy, and back to his 3-quads performances, with better artistry (I expect that to happen) it will be too close to call between these three. Plushenko's presence on the ice, and his strong basics may give the gold to him. However, if someone else wins worlds in 2005 (in Moscow, of all the places!) that could change the landscape going into Turin considerably.>

LOL, isn´t there some superstition about a reigning WC at Olympics in men´s skating? I believe that so far Scott Hamilton is the last reigning World champion to win at Olympics (1984).

He finished top 6 in his first Worlds, with very little previous experience in senior internationals - an impressive feat IMHO. And yet many people don't consider him a medal threat? Well, even after Nats, I doubted his "head." But Worlds made a big believer out of me.

My very blunt opinions on the other skaters: Griazev bores me - he's a facetious little Yags clone. Evan, unfortunately, reminds me of the criticisms other people have had of skaters like Sarah - all gangly. Lindemann was a one-hit wonder. It's still questionable how Plush's legs will be in 1.5 years. (Plus, I never have been that big a fan.)

Lambiel, like Johnny, still has various stuff to work on. But with school out of the way, I'm hoping for further improvements. Ditto on Brian.

Your podium will be Joubert/Weir/Lambiel, any order.

I want to see a judge put lambiel and weir(who has not landed a single quad in comps yet. he will have to be very consistent to compete against the best skaters)over the three time champ and the best skater in the world right now in Turino,it ain't going to happen lol!