Is Johnny Weir America's Great Hope for Gold in Torino?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Vash -

Very nice analytical study of the possible field of winners in 2006. You write with personal convction and without national bias. I like that.

Everyone seems to be concerned with Plush's knee. I am too, but from what I saw in Dortmund, there was no evidence of it bothering him. Hope someone keeps us up to date on this. I'm not a big fan of him. I like him butnot overwhelmed except for the quads. Nothing else. But hey, that's just me. Many posters here, and not including you, seem to foregoe figure skating for the quads. OK. It's a diving event.

Joubert, like Johnny has no personality yet, as you mentioned. They are still young and finding themselves. I think Joubert should emerge with a style in Moscow. Johnny, if he's lucky, will have it for Torino.

I'm waiting more viewing of Goebel and Lindeman; the former fo the effects of that hbody allignment and the latter was it just the roar of the crowd?

Lambiel, is my favorite. He is imo the most musical and easy to watch but oh so fragile. But he's moving right along

Klimikin my other favorite is always injury prone. Just hoping.

Griazev's LP in Dortmund was better than I expected. Not so much like Yags but a happy go lucky guy more like Kurt Browning. I was definitely entertained. Need to see more of him and Lysacek. I guess we are also seeing the demise of Michael Weiss. not mentioned at all.

Joe

 

[soogar]

I'm not sure if Mikey Weiss is in demise but rather he's been around for so long plagued by the same inconsistencies that no one is really counting on him to do anything different. It's the same story year in and year out with Mike on whether this will be the the breakthrough year for him. He's never quite lived up to his own nor everyone else's expectations of him. That said, I thought Mikey had a decent worlds and I would dare say that Weir was extremely overmarked at worlds. Weir didn't even try the quad , which is the equivalent of a lady competing without a triple lutz, and he was marked in the top 5. All of the other guys had the risk element which correspondingly puts pressure on the rest of their skating. I'm not a Weiss fan but I thought Mike should have been marked higher in the short b/c he tried the risk element and Johnny didn't.

It also surprises me how quickly everyone has seemed to forget Tim Goebel. Tim has the technical merit to beat everyone and he just needs to find the right style. I don't even think that Johnny can even challenge a healthy Goebel or any other skater with a quad.

 

[Kasey]

I think Honda and Goebel, and even Weiss, could still be considered for medals, even though it's still two years away (and a LOT can happen in two years....who would have thought that 2 years after his Olympic win, Yags would no longer be eligible?)

Unless injuries get him, I think Plushy is still going to be the one to beat. He's got the pedigree and the consistency on his side. Joubert will also be a challenger, and maybe (hopefully) Weir and Lambiel.

Interesting, the person who called Griazev a "facetious Yags clone"....Everyone has the right to their opinions of course, but the three times I've seen the kid, he strikes me more in the Abt/Kulik way. The jumps are huge, but that's really the only similarity I noticed to Yags. I wonder if he and Joubert are going to get caught up in the "love him/hate him" sensation that Yagudin always seemed to be....guilt by association! (for the record, I like Griazev a lot, I like Joubert quite a bit, and always liked Yags, foot in mouth or not!)

Kasey

 

[NorthernLite]

I want to see a judge put lambiel and weir ...over the three time champ and the best skater in the world right now in Turino,it ain't going to happen lol!

Shrug. Michelle was 4-time world champ at SLC. And she was beaten by another skater I'd always predicted big things for, though many others had dissed and doubted that girl.

But even thre, we only got a slim majority of judges marking fairly in the 02 Ladies event. If Plush is in Turino (not out with an injury), his marks could very well be inflated. So yeah, he'll make the podium. But he's absolutely beatable.

I have a feeling there are going to be very interesting results in both men's and ladies at Turino.

 

[sk8er1964]

I find it interesting that some of you think Weir doesn't have presentation -- I agree that he doesn't have a style like Plushenko, but he absolutely mesmorizes me when he skates. Yes, he's into himself, but at least for me he draws me there too. I also think he'll have the quads without too many problems. If you look at his 3-sal, for example, there is an obvious early pull out on it that indicates advanced work on the next rotation. I think he'll be up there.

I also like Joubert, and hope he'll be there too. For you old folks out there - did Lindemann remind anyone else of Riff in West Side Story? He looked like he could dance on Broadway any day .

 

[Vash01]

I'm not sure if Mikey Weiss is in demise but rather he's been around for so long plagued by the same inconsistencies that no one is really counting on him to do anything different. It's the same story year in and year out with Mike on whether this will be the the breakthrough year for him. He's never quite lived up to his own nor everyone else's expectations of him. That said, I thought Mikey had a decent worlds and I would dare say that Weir was extremely overmarked at worlds. Weir didn't even try the quad , which is the equivalent of a lady competing without a triple lutz, and he was marked in the top 5. All of the other guys had the risk element which correspondingly puts pressure on the rest of their skating. I'm not a Weiss fan but I thought Mike should have been marked higher in the short b/c he tried the risk element and Johnny didn't.

It also surprises me how quickly everyone has seemed to forget Tim Goebel. Tim has the technical merit to beat everyone and he just needs to find the right style. I don't even think that Johnny can even challenge a healthy Goebel or any other skater with a quad.

Soogar,

It seems you missed it, but I had mentioned Goebel as one of the (likely) top 3, going into Turin- if he is healthy and has developed better artistry.

Weir did not attempt the quad, but whatever he did, he did it well. If Weiss had actually landed what he had planned he would have received credit. Skaters don't get credit just for 'trying' a difficult element (or at least they should not). Weiss has some other problems too with his jump technique, esp. with the triple axel. I agree with your parallel though- a lady skating without a triple lutz. However, a quad in the mens field is rarer than a triple lutz in the ladies field (only a handful of men actually have a quad, while almost all the ladies have the triple lutz). The Chinese men have the quads but they lose out on the presentation. I am not too surprised that Weir with a clean program placed higher than Weiss. It is reminiscent of Todd Eldredge without a quad placing higher than some with a quad at the 2001 worlds.

Vash

 

[Tonichelle]

I find neither Plushy or Weir to be overly artistic... which is why I think Timmy will stand a chance in 06

 

[Vash01]

Thank you Joesitz. At least you don't hate Plushenko, the way some people do. I started liking him when i saw him skate an awesome LP at the 2001 worlds, and he had not even matured at that point. What separates him from the rest- JMHO- is the way he commands the ice. I really hope he can continue to skate because his best skating is yet to come.

It is nice to see the competition though. Two years is a long time in FS and who knows Johnny Weir may even be ready for a gold medal by that time. Joubert certainly will be (it does not necessarily mean I am predicting his win in Turin; just pointing out the possibility). He sounds like a very goal oriented person, with a clear focus.

Vash

 

[Tonichelle]

unless Joubert develops his OWN style and not just basically clones himself into the next Alexei Yagudin I don't think he'll be a hot item come Turin... JMHO... but his Matrix program did nothing for me... just because Alexei's choreography brought me to the edge of my seat doesn't mean Brian doing the same thing will get the same reaction... he has to feel the music and become one with it... not just become one with the Alexei look.

 

[Jaana]

Interesting, the person who called Griazev a "facetious Yags clone"....Everyone has the right to their opinions of course, but the three times I've seen the kid, he strikes me more in the Abt/Kulik way. The jumps are huge, but that's really the only similarity I noticed to Yags. Kasey

Ilia Kulik had really huge (and beautiful) jumps in eligible skating (which continue in his pro skating), so I don´t see that as anything specific to combine Griazev to Yagudin. Of course with the exception of the jumping style.

To me Griazev seems a total clone of Yagudin before the time Tarasova started to create theatrical programs for him. The look of Griazev skating on the ice is exactly the same as that of Yagudin. I see absolutely nothing of Kulik or Abt in him. If I would, I sure would have become at least a minor fan, LOL.

On the other hand I always believe in keeping an open mind. I have understood that Griazev will participate in Finlandia Trophy, so I may have a chance of seeing his skating live. Maybe my opinion may change? It did with Plushenko in 2000. Until that I had not liked his skating much, but from the moment he started his "Bolero", I was drawn to it. I was able to feel his power and the huge charisma coming out of his own person (not out of some clever choreography to fool the audiences, LOL), combined to everything else which is so great in his skating.

 

[berthes ghost]

Griazev bores me - he's a facetious little Yags clone

Well, NorthernLite gets an A for honesty I suppose, although the "yags-clone" put down is just too 'this year's bash' for me to take seriously. I wouldn't at all be surprise to see someone diss Kwan soon as a "yags-clone".

I do have to ask for clarification on the "facetious" though. Did you see his programs as humorous? Do you find his personality waggish? Did you think he was doing a clever impersonation of Yags? Or are you just trying to be slick and dismiss him as a joke? Just curious.

Is injury Plusy's only achilles heel? IIRC he never blames it, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Anyway, despite his stellar record, he has proven that he isn't invincible: worlds 2000, SLC, 04 GPF, 04 Euros. Only the one mistake in Dortmund, but Budapest was a disaster. Can you imagine winning Olys with that kind of LP?

 

[icenut84]

Is injury Plusy's only achilles heel? IIRC he never blames it, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Anyway, despite his stellar record, he has proven that he isn't invincible: worlds 2000, SLC, 04 GPF, 04 Euros. Only the one mistake in Dortmund, but Budapest was a disaster. Can you imagine winning Olys with that kind of LP?

You mean with his Euros LP? If he gave that performance in Torino, assuming the others all didn't have a total splat-fest, I don't think he'd win. He didn't win Euros with it. Even though he did have some superb tech things in there (4-3-2, 3-3-2, etc), it was too mistake-ridden to win.

The thing with Joubert is, for me, he just doesn't have anywhere near the difficulty or complexity of some of the other skaters, particularly Plushenko and Lambiel, and I think that holds him back. If you take his Matrix LP, he spends almost all the time on two feet, and the choreography is incredibly simple, whereas if you compare it to Lambiel's LP (which I think should have been above him in 2nd place at Worlds), Lambiel's was chockablock with choreography, one-foot skating, difficult turns etc. Plus Lambiel was slightly ahead in the jump count, and the spins just don't compare. I think if Joubert really wants to be in with a chance to win Worlds or Olympics against the other skaters, he's got to up the content. Not just elements, but everything else too. I liked his LP, but even with Plush falling at Worlds he still won decisively - that shows the difference between them.

You're right, Plushenko isn't invincible and Joubert will probably definitely be in there with a chance. I like Joubert but he needs to up the ante if he wants to win, not to mention think of beating a clean Plush. JMO.

 

[heyang]

Assuming everyone's healthy and skating well, I think the top 3 will be Plushenko, Joubert and Goebel and not neccessarily in that order. A lot will depend on how the latter 2 develop in their presentation and in-betweens.

I aslo think COP will make a difference in that the title shouldn't be handed over to Plushy automatically.

Of course, 2 years is still a long time away and a lot can change. Also, there are many capable of pulling a Paul Wylie - inconsistent, but performance of career on those 2 nights. Or could be even more dramatic Rudy Galindo for someone who's never stood on the podium at World's in particular discipline.

 

[dlkksk8fan]

As others have stated I think it is too soon to predict the outcome of the 2006 Olympics. So much can happen to the skaters, but the most important thing is for the top contender to remain healthy and injury free.

 

[berthes ghost]

icenut, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but just somethings to consider:
-the whole is not always equal to the sum of it's parts. Matrix may have been easier, but it jelled better IMHO and came off quite nicely as a presented piece. Stephane's LP was nice, but I'm not really sure what it was all about.
- on second viewing, I was surprised how sloppy Stephane's LP was. I had remembered it as being "Wow!" but on review there seemed to be a lot of iffy, just-hung-on landing and some sloppy positions. I've admired him for so long, I think I was just caught up in the "OMG, he's gonna do it!" aspect at first. Replaying the tape, it seemed almost rushed or hyper, not polished.

 

[soogar]

Berthes Ghost:
I agree with you about Stephane Lambiel's LP. While I really loved his short program (even with the fall), I thought that his LP was not well constructed which was why I agreed with the judges putting Lindemann over Lambiel. Lambiel had a lot of empty portions in his LP compared to Lindemann and Joubert who spaced out their elements.

 

[Rebecca]

I agree with what has just been said about Lambiel's LP. The first time that I saw it I was totally wowed ... but I had not been watching figure skating for a couple of years before the WC this year, so I didn't quite know what to be looking for. When I replayed my tape the other day I too found it a bit sloppy and rushed. I still enjoyed it, but I understood how he didn't place a bit higher after seeing it again.

 

[bronxgirl]

As others have stated I think it is too soon to predict the outcome of the 2006 Olympics. So much can happen to the skaters, but the most important thing is for the top contender to remain healthy and injury free.

I'm so glad to hear someone else say that. I was beginning to think I was the only one who wasn't willing to go out on a limb (no pun intended)

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It is not and was not meant to be a prediction post. Of course, it is much to soon to predict 2006. The post was meant to be how many hurdles (read other skaters) Johnny has to contend with given he comes up with 2 quads before we can predict a gold for him in 2006. Most posters understood that, and what we have are several 'hurdles' Johnny must contend with. remember, he was not considered for gold at the 2004 Nationals, but ......

We are quite aware of the knee problem of Evgeni and spine allignment of Tim They are two of the top tier contenders as of today. What happens at the preOly Worlds in Moscow may change that. No Oly predictions are really possible at this time.

Anyone who has information on whether Evgeni will have knee surgery with results and if Tim has had his spine re-alligned with results would be most appreciated in GS.

Joe

 

[dorispulaski]

By what I read (this is all secondhand):

Tim's skating is slowly improving and he has landed up to 5 or 6 triples during COI performances. He is supposed to be skating more smoothly and his back seems to be less tight. In his journal, he claims to be enjoying skating again. He is supposed to be answering fan questions, and I am sure that there will be plenty of them.

He is now skating on Klingbeil's rather than SpTeri's, and has gotten orthotics for his skates. He saw/is seeing a chiropracter and has been doing stretching exercises.

I do not know whether he is landing quads again. He seems confident that he will be landing them at Nat's next year.

As to challenges, Evgeni says he plans 4 in his next LP: 2 4t's, 1 4s, and 1 4loop. That will be a sight to see! I don't think he is doing surgery until after the touring stops, though.