2015-16 State of Russian Ice Dance

[Snow63]

Well there's a quotation from Woody Allen that I love (I'll paraphrase): If you're an Orthodox Jew and eat pork, eat it until the fat dribbles down your chin. If you're going to do trad Uber!Russian!Drahhhhhhhhhhmahhhhhhhhhhh!!!! then let B/S's Anna Karenina be your guide.

(ie Yes, I was a big fan of the AK program--no sarcasm here folks!)

Pretty much yeah. I also like that it's not just man/woman dance, it's the dance with a solid story, with a lot of little signs and references to the book itself and the movie. I wish more dances were like that.
I wrote that long-*** analyzis of that dance, where I compared it to the original story with all the references I noticed and found, and planned to post it here before the Worlds. But after the 'Meldonium' news I had a gigantic meltdown and decided that no one will ever see it But now, after all the positive news about the case... who knows.

Edit: I also remember that you did NOT liked the dance at first

 

[lauravvv]

There are huge tech problems too. Even if B/s program was generally accepted even if some said there was too much drama you have the tech issues that made them lose euros by a ton.

They had some technical problens in the SD, but not in the FD, let alone "huge tech problems". Actually, they won over Cappellini/Lanotte in FD there thanks to their technical score. They had only one level 3 element in it - one of the two step sequences (the other was level 4). But their PCS were still lower than C/L's and other top ice dance teams (in other competitions). I am not sure it means that judges did not like their FD, though. More like they were a team returning after a break during which teams that were loosing to them before had improved, so there simply was no place for them in the top (five) anymore.

 

[brushalley]

Hip hip would work for teams that aren't quite fluid. It's about turning a weakness into a strength. Zueva is genius at that.

Hip Hop should suit G/P very well maybe C/L too ? P/C V/M should have fabulous Midnight blues!

 

[gmyers]

It is time to progress, not just to change. I'm not here for changes just because of changes. We don't need every team to do what's hot now, Weaver/Poje paid their price for that already.

The reasons radical changes are inevitable which I hope includes progress too is because I assume that Russia wants to win the olympics in 2018 and start winning worlds next year in order to facilitate that. Right now its impossible to believe Russia will have medalists at worlds or Olympics before 2018 and maybe before 2022 if nothing radical happens. They are barely hanging on to the top 10. In 2008 khloklova and novitski could be worlds bronze medalists. Russia's second team as recently as 2008!! Now maybe russia is still collapsing and not even in a rebuilding period.

They had some technical problens in the SD, but not in the FD, let alone "huge tech problems". Actually, they won over Cappellini/Lanotte in FD there thanks to their technical score. They had only one level 3 element in it - one of the two step sequences (the other was level 4). But their PCS were still lower than C/L's and other top ice dance teams (in other competitions). I am not sure it means that judges did not like their FD, though. More like they were a team returning after a break during which teams that were loosing to them before had improved, so there simply was no place for them in the top (five) anymore.

Its true that the while b/s did beat c/l in the fd it wasn't enough to move to second overall because of the sd. You put everything together and it still really doesn't look good for them being world champion or Olympic champions without everyone seeing b/s a lot differently. So how does that happen?

 

[Ice Dance]

First, I’d just like to say that this year’s Worlds dance results don’t depict the real story with Russian dance, and we all know it. If Bobrova & Soloviev had gone to Worlds, they would very likely have had the experience to lead this team; and it’s also plausible that Sinitsina & Katsalapov would have skated better without the pressure of being Russia’s unanticipated number one (I’m not saying that lack of pressure would have fixed the twizzles, though).

As for the future, generally speaking, you can’t just generalize. Each dance team is unique. Their strengths and weaknesses are different, and the path toward improvement is different. This is an answer politicians and reporters don’t like to hear because it doesn’t work as a soundbite or a headline, but it is the truth. Coaches and athletes need the kind of support and freedom that will allow them to find the right path for themselves.

As far as the big picture goes, here are some thoughts for a road map:

1. Build some depth. There seem to be tons of Russian junior teams, but how are they going to get the support and experience they need to break in as seniors in the international field? This is dance. It’s a long-term commitment. Most teams don’t just leap into the Grand Prix; and those that do can’t expect immediate results. These teams need time and exposure—the latter of which they are unlikely to get doing the Russian Cup series. Why is depth important? Why not just support the bright, shining stars that shoot straight to the top? Because then your entire program goes down the drain when the teams you've been counting on get 1. injured, 2. banned, 3. split up because they can't get along.

2. Get the lower-ranked senior Russian teams out on the Challenger series. Monko & Khaliavin and Yanovskaya & Mosgov are both out of the top 24 on the SB and World-ranking lists for GP selections this coming season. We all knew there was a good chance they weren't going to make the post season. There's no excuse for them not having any secondary events to help build up their world standing. Russia needs to be thinking long term. World standing results don't build overnight.

3. Don't undermine top athletes. Bobrova & Soloviev and Ilynikh & Zhiganshin were signed up for the same season opener this year. What the heck? Don’t subjugate a national champion team right off the bat. (The Russian Fed is far from the only federation to do this. USFSA did it last season. And Canada & their poorly-timed V&M announcement at 4CC's did W&P no favors this season). Then when it looked like B&S might lose to Hubbell & Donahue, Russian pundits were all ready to publicly criticize B&S and put their political backing behind S&K. . Just let the skaters do their job.

4. Send the top teams out to compete against the real competition and/or away from home. Russian teams aren't going to get real feedback and criticism skating at the Mordovian Ornament or in Eastern Europe. Try competing at the U.S. or Autumn Classic. (So what if you lose? You might not. And if you do, at least you’ll learn something. The judges this season demonstrated that they aren’t going to hold anyone’s season opener against a team down the road). The top three North American teams were all in Europe right off the bat this past fall. All three walked away with serious criticism and made dramatic changes to their programs before the GP. The Russian teams didn’t get international feedback until Skate Canada, Cup of China, and—in the case of Stepanova & Bukin’s FD—NHK. The next two Olympics are in Asia. Neutral territory at best. And Korea is definitely not pro-Russia. This isn’t like getting ready for Sochi. Go to the tough competitions.

5. Be open to outside expertise. This is starting to happen. S&K and I&Z are finally tapping into some of the Russian expertise in North America. As are some of the junior Russian dance teams. And let’s not limit teams to only Russian expertise. (Is Marina Zoueva really the best insight Julia could get for planning a 70’s rock & roll number?) There are many tremendous Russian coaches & choreographers, but that doesn’t mean they are the perfect fit for every Russian dance team. There is a whole world of expertise out there. Use it. Zhulin’s dramatic Russian choreography works beautifully for Bobrova & Soloviev. The current packaging is not working for Monko & Khaliavin or Stepanova & Bukin. They’re still finding their way. Perhaps their own coaches will find it, but it’s also possible that a new pair of eyes might provide some inspiration. Then have the coach adapt it and ensure it really works.

6. Treat the current World results like the learning experience they are. Stepanova & Bukin were thrilled with their free skate performance. The American/Canadian commentators were impressed with their performance. This was an away-game for this team and they came away stronger for the fight. They will be more confident and better recognized the next time they come to North America. Sinitsina & Katsalapov had a bit of a baptism by fire in their first Worlds experience together. They could have skated better, but they could have skated worse. They established themselves as a top ten team when last season they couldn't get onto the podium at nationals or even get the technical minimum score. Overall, it's been an incredibly successful season for them.

 

[gmyers]

First, I’d just like to say that this year’s Worlds dance results don’t depict the real story with Russian dance, and we all know it. If Bobrova & Soloviev had gone to Worlds, they would very likely have had the experience to lead this team; and it’s also plausible that Sinitsina & Katsalapov would have skated better without the pressure of being Russia’s unanticipated number one (I’m not saying that lack of pressure would have fixed the twizzles, though).

As for the future, generally speaking, you can’t just generalize. Each dance team is unique. Their strengths and weaknesses are different, and the path toward improvement is different. This is an answer politicians and reporters don’t like to hear because it doesn’t work as a soundbite or a headline, but it is the truth. Coaches and athletes need the kind of support and freedom that will allow them to find the right path for themselves.

As far as the big picture goes, here are some thoughts for a road map:

1. Build some depth. There seem to be tons of Russian junior teams, but how are they going to get the support and experience they need to break in as seniors in the international field? This is dance. It’s a long-term commitment. Most teams don’t just leap into the Grand Prix; and those that do can’t expect immediate results. These teams need time and exposure—the latter of which they are unlikely to get doing the Russian Cup series. Why is depth important? Why not just support the bright, shining stars that shoot straight to the top? Because then your entire program goes down the drain when the teams you've been counting on get 1. injured, 2. banned, 3. split up because they can't get along.

2. Get the lower-ranked senior Russian teams out on the Challenger series. Monko & Khaliavin and Yanovskaya & Mosgov are both out of the top 24 on the SB and World-ranking lists for GP selections this coming season. We all knew there was a good chance they weren't going to make the post season. There's no excuse for them not having any secondary events to help build up their world standing. Russia needs to be thinking long term. World standing results don't build overnight.

3. Don't undermine top athletes. Bobrova & Soloviev and Ilynikh & Zhiganshin were signed up for the same season opener this year. What the heck? Don’t subjugate a national champion team right off the bat. (The Russian Fed is far from the only federation to do this. USFSA did it last season. And Canada & their poorly-timed V&M announcement at 4CC's did W&P no favors this season). Then when it looked like B&S might lose to Hubbell & Donahue, Russian pundits were all ready to publicly criticize B&S and put their political backing behind S&K. . Just let the skaters do their job.

4. Send the top teams out to compete against the real competition and/or away from home. Russian teams aren't going to get real feedback and criticism skating at the Mordovian Ornament or in Eastern Europe. Try competing at the U.S. or Autumn Classic. (So what if you lose? You might not. And if you do, at least you’ll learn something. The judges this season demonstrated that they aren’t going to hold anyone’s season opener against a team down the road). The top three North American teams were all in Europe right off the bat this past fall. All three walked away with serious criticism and made dramatic changes to their programs before the GP. The Russian teams didn’t get international feedback until Skate Canada, Cup of China, and—in the case of Stepanova & Bukin’s FD—NHK. The next two Olympics are in Asia. Neutral territory at best. And Korea is definitely not pro-Russia. This isn’t like getting ready for Sochi. Go to the tough competitions.

5. Be open to outside expertise. This is starting to happen. S&K and I&Z are finally tapping into some of the Russian expertise in North America. As are some of the junior Russian dance teams. And let’s not limit teams to only Russian expertise. (Is Marina Zoueva really the best insight Julia could get for planning a 70’s rock & roll number?) There are many tremendous Russian coaches & choreographers, but that doesn’t mean they are the perfect fit for every Russian dance team. There is a whole world of expertise out there. Use it. Zhulin’s dramatic Russian choreography works beautifully for Bobrova & Soloviev. The current packaging is not working for Monko & Khaliavin or Stepanova & Bukin. They’re still finding their way. Perhaps their own coaches will find it, but it’s also possible that a new pair of eyes might provide some inspiration. Then have the coach adapt it and ensure it really works.

6. Treat the current World results like the learning experience they are. Stepanova & Bukin were thrilled with their free skate performance. The American/Canadian commentators were impressed with their performance. This was an away-game for this team and they came away stronger for the fight. They will be more confident and better recognized the next time they come to North America. Sinitsina & Katsalapov had a bit of a baptism by fire in their first Worlds experience together. They could have skated better, but they could have skated worse. They established themselves as a top ten team when last season they couldn't get onto the podium at nationals or even get the technical minimum score. Overall, it's been an incredibly successful season for them.

You would have to agree that b/s almost losing to h/d at the gpf was a horrible disaster and if it actually happened even worse. Very bad short dance problems were really not fixed at all and would haunt them again at euros. So why was their such big problems with the sd? Russia number one losing to us number 3? Not recognizing this would be worse than over criticism. I don't even believe there undercitism for that. Now russia number 2 s/k actually did lose to us number 3. So they need a radical complete overhaul of technique and program.

You are right russian teams need to get out much earlier and be done with programs by July or august. Too many russian teams do shows and tours. US benefits enormously from show skating being largely dead in NA. Katsalapov teams have never been done early and always debut in November. He may have a horrible work ethic.

Why is no major team with d/l? Why haven't I/z moved to spiliband officially yet and cut all ties and criticized kustarova?

The whole point needs to be winning Olympics or at least silver in 2018. Russian officials need to copy entirely all successful elements of the US program and maybe move all teams with potetial to north america. They need to be around the best and most successful.

When do s/b plan to win Olympic gold? What's their schedule? How about just euro gold?

 

[Marta25]

You would have to agree that b/s almost losing to h/d at the gpf was a horrible disaster and if it actually happened even worse. Very bad short dance problems were really not fixed at all and would haunt them again at euros. So why was their such big problems with the sd? Russia number one losing to us number 3? Not recognizing this would be worse than over criticism. I don't even believe there undercitism for that. Now russia number 2 s/k actually did lose to us number 3. So they need a radical complete overhaul of technique and program.

You are right russian teams need to get out much earlier and be done with programs by July or august. Too many russian teams do shows and tours. US benefits enormously from show skating being largely dead in NA. Katsalapov teams have never been done early and always debut in November. He may have a horrible work ethic.

Why is no major team with d/l? Why haven't I/z moved to spiliband officially yet and cut all ties and criticized kustarova?

The whole point needs to be winning Olympics or at least silver in 2018. Russian officials need to copy entirely all successful elements of the US program and maybe move all teams with potetial to north america. They need to be around the best and most successful.

When do s/b plan to win Olympic gold? What's their schedule? How about just euro gold?

Elena stated in her interview back in February, that they would make their final decision in May, so I guess we have to wait until then. Besides, my guess is that both Elena and Ruslan want to keep a good relationship with Kustarova. With all the mistakes she has done this season, she still was the one suggesting to them to team up and managed to bring them to a Russian National Champions title and a 7th place at their Worlds debut.
I agree that I/Z need to move on and I really, really hope they are going to switch permanently to Shpilband, but there is no need to criticize Kustarova openly.

 

[gmyers]

Elena stated in her interview back in February, that they would make their final decision in May, so I guess we have to wait until then. Besides, my guess is that both Elena and Ruslan want to keep a good relationship with Kustarova. With all the mistakes she has done this season, she still was the one suggesting to them to team up and managed to bring them to a Russian National Champions title and a 7th place at their Worlds debut.
I agree that I/Z need to move on and I really, really hope they are going to switch permanently to Shpilband, but there is no need to criticize Kustarova openly.

It would be very bad if any team moved to kustarova so that's why I think it might be best for I/z to tell their fellow ice dancers to stay away from her. Everyone leaving these coaches is not doing enough. Its not saying stay away. Kustarova is a beginners coach who is totally wrong for the competitive environment of modern ice dance.

 

[Vash01]

The state of Russian ice dance is even worse than the state of Russian men. I&K would have been their medal contenders in 2018 but they split. I see no promise in I&Z or S&K. Elena needs a much better partner than Ruslan. A move to Shpilband will make them better though, if they decide to continue as a team. Anything is better than their coach last season. S&K are in good hands but Viktoria is no Elena. They could become a top 5 team at worlds but no better. I don't see any medal contenders from Russia until the 2022 Olympics. Stepanova- Bukin are going nowhere. She is just not talented enough, and Bukin is very good. May be some of the junior teams could develop but that's going to take a long time.

 

[bramweld]

The state of Russian ice dance is even worse than the state of Russian men. I&K would have been their medal contenders in 2018 but they split. I see no promise in I&Z or S&K. Elena needs a much better partner than Ruslan. A move to Shpilband will make them better though, if they decide to continue as a team. Anything is better than their coach last season. S&K are in good hands but Viktoria is no Elena. They could become a top 5 team at worlds but no better. I don't see any medal contenders from Russia until the 2022 Olympics. Stepanova- Bukin are going nowhere. She is just not talented enough, and Bukin is very good. May be some of the junior teams could develop but that's going to take a long time.

Too early to say anything about I/Z, with all due respect to Kustarova she was out of her depth with these two. They have been quiet about Kustarova because she was the only one who believed in their talent. I/Z held on these last two seasons with the help of Najarro for enough persons to see that they were worth the investment. They will now finally get the attention and packaging they need. They need to be given another two seasons before conversations like these can be had. Look on what hit and miss Zhulin did for B/S, why is everyone so quick to assume that Igor can't do something similar for I/Z. The Russian system is not working their athletes need fresh new eyes.

EDIT: I thought it best to keep it purely about the skating.

 

[Alexz]

Russian officials need to copy entirely all successful elements of the US program and maybe move all teams with potetial to north america. They need to be around the best and most successful.

Jesus-Mary-n-Joseph, you constantly advocating for Russian teams to move to North America. Lemme ask you what are exactly successful elements of the US program, and what is US program? Bunch of Russian coaches worked on particular US teams and skaters in the 90's, 00's and is working at the present moment? So far, I have never seen any masterclasses, conferences or collective think-tanks about how to develop all this successful cooperation of Russian expat coaches + talented American skaters into US system or into American School of FS with its own style and individuality. What are the general features and the face of US figure skating style? You know, immigration of foreign brains and importing coaches of different schools is not exactly the same as our own US school system. If foreign FS imports into US drains, the system fails as well - so, may be its not a system after all? May be its a time to build Arutyunyan his own rink and give him a chance to start his own FS school system according to his philosophy as he constantly mentions. Give him bunch of American teacher under his wing as assistants. So they can develop something meaningful all together.

So far I see only separated imported geniuses which works in a very scarce and poor conditions, but not the system. Russians may have lost some momentum because of emigration of a lot of their top talents and coaches in the recent past. Howeve, their system is still in a top notch shape. Losing few talented elements did not hurt it much, just a natural delay for replacements.

It's too earlier to count your chickens, as they say. Russian FS breathes in 4-year cycles, Olympics to Olympics. We all know that. So don't be too premature menace while sipping kool-aid in your little hood.

 

[bramweld]

Well with all due respect when was the last time we saw a Russian ice dance team really genuinely impress on the world stage? I/K had potential but they didn't live up to it. If Katsalapov had held it together at worlds 2014 I could say that Zhulin has a point. Zhulin is a little snake. While all was well with B/S all he could say about I/K was that they had good speed. He repeatedly called them out as traitors. His latest comments are just sly PR for Z/G.

OTOH, how long has COP been in existence? You mean to tell me they can't do better than B/S and D/S? Why is it that the US has three ice dance teams in the top 7 and not one of those pairs were junior champions? It's not just the kool aid. What is needed now is some simple common sense, hard work, patience and a number of their so called experts to stop heating up the air with negativity. We are not blind. Russian ice dance simply needs to catch up with the world.

 

[gmyers]

Jesus-Mary-n-Joseph, you constantly advocating for Russian teams to move to North America. Lemme ask you what are exactly successful elements of the US program, and what is US program? Bunch of Russian coaches worked on particular US teams and skaters in the 90's, 00's and is working at the present moment? So far, I have never seen any masterclasses, conferences or collective think-tanks about how to develop all this successful cooperation of Russian expat coaches + talented American skaters into US system or into American School of FS with its own style and individuality. What are the general features and the face of US figure skating style? You know, immigration of foreign brains and importing coaches of different schools is not exactly the same as our own US school system. If foreign FS imports into US drains, the system fails as well - so, may be its not a system after all? May be its a time to build Arutyunyan his own rink and give him a chance to start his own FS school system according to his philosophy as he constantly mentions. Give him bunch of American teacher under his wing as assistants. So they can develop something meaningful all together.

So far I see only separated imported geniuses which works in a very scarce and poor conditions, but not the system. Russians may have lost some momentum because of emigration of a lot of their top talents and coaches in the recent past. Howeve, their system is still in a top notch shape. Losing few talented elements did not hurt it much, just a natural delay for replacements.

It's too earlier to count your chickens, as they say. Russian FS breathes in 4-year cycles, Olympics to Olympics. We all know that. So don't be too premature menace while sipping kool-aid in your little hood.

All I know is training in North America means hubbell and Donahue are beating the two russian teams at a worlds. Maybe b/s would have beat them but that's a big question as b/s barely beat h/d at the gpf. Almost all the top teams train in North America and none in Russia. Only Russians train in Russia really because no one is really considered to know cop in Russia. They don't know that unlike in North America both members of a team need to have talent. Stepanova, sinitsina, and zhiganshin do not belong with their partners. Even katsalpov who is considered the best in Russia can't twizzle. He just can't! Russians are successful but not in Russia. The people on charge in Russia still think they key to success is huge overwhelming drama. Not level 4 steps spins and twizzles and accessibility to audiences.

 

[bramweld]

All I know is training in North America means hubbell and Donahue are beating the two russian teams at a worlds. Maybe b/s would have neat them but that's a big question as b/s barely beat h/d at the gpf. Almost all the top teams train in North America and none in Russia. Only Russians train in Russia really because no one is really considered to know cop in Russia. They don't know that unlike in North America both members of a team need to have talent. Stepanova, sinitsina, and zhiganshin do not belong with their partners. Even katsalpov who is considered the best in Russia can't twizzle. He just can't! Russians are successful but not in Russia. The people on charge in Russia still think they key to success is huge overwhelming drama. Not level 4 steps spins and twizzles and accessibility to audiences.

I wouldn't be so harsh on Ruslan. He has great basics. And his only coach his entire life was Kustarova and he still manages to present himself well. He needs the care of a good male coach for a couple of seasons before I could ever consider writing him off. I barely noticed Nikita when he skated with Lena. She's just that good. He stands out more now as Sinitsina basically follows him. I/Z need a coach that knows his stuff. Let's wait and see.

 

[sses1]

Just wondering, since there are rumors that Y/M might split (she apparently has a serious injury) do you think Elena would be better with Sergey than Ruslan?

 

[bramweld]

Just wondering, since there are rumors that Y/M might split (she apparently has a serious injury) do you think Elena would be better with Sergey than Ruslan?

He has the right build for lifts but Ruslan has the better skating skills. Added to which he's improving every season. Sergey also admits he doesn't like skating with much shorter girls. He likes them tall (so he doesn't have to use such a deep knee bend all the time, I imagine).

 

[Ice Dance]

You would have to agree that b/s almost losing to h/d at the gpf was a horrible disaster

Nonsense. Hubbell & Donahue defeated Chock & Bates with that SD as well this season. They defeated Weaver & Poje with the FD. (Does this mean the World bronze medalists and Grand Prix Champions should be undermined by their federations? No.) H&D are a very strong team, well matched, back from injury, and fighting tooth and nail. They could win U.S. Nationals next year. Or they could be off the U.S. team. Every one of these U.S. teams knows it, and the competition is making them all stronger.

 

[Layback11]

It's not *all* gloom and doom. Loboda/Drozd won a Junior World medal. Shpielvaya/Smirnov placed 5th and won the YOG. And that is not even including Popova/Vlasenko, who made the JGPF. No, it's not living up to the legacy of Russian ice dance, but there are good teams in the Junior ranks who have talent and will hopefully make the switch better than Y/M did.

It's like American ladies: there's been such a long line of champions that people start freaking out when they stop being dominant. These things go in cycles; it isn't the end of the world if one country stops being dominant for a while. The "lag" will eventually end.

(But if we're going gloom and doom, I was thinking I/K had OGM potential...but then they went and split up.)

 

[Ice Dance]

And that is not even including Popova/Vlasenko, who made the JGPF.

Skoptcova & Aleshin made the JGPF as well and won bronze at YOG.

And I agree. It is VERY like the American ladies.

 

[gmyers]

I wouldn't be so harsh on Ruslan. He has great basics. And his only coach his entire life was Kustarova and he still manages to present himself well. He needs the care of a good male coach for a couple of seasons before I could ever consider writing him off. I barely noticed Nikita when he skated with Lena. She's just that good. He stands out more now as Sinitsina basically follows him. I/Z need a coach that knows his stuff. Let's wait and see.

Zhiganshin may improve but never match with ilynikh. Can he ever really be her partner even if better? This isn't 6.0 ice dance. It may just be an imbalance forever.

Nonsense. Hubbell & Donahue defeated Chock & Bates with that SD as well this season. They defeated Weaver & Poje with the FD. (Does this mean the World bronze medalists and Grand Prix Champions should be undermined by their federations? No.) H&D are a very strong team, well matched, back from injury, and fighting tooth and nail. They could win U.S. Nationals next year. Or they could be off the U.S. team. Every one of these U.S. teams knows it, and the competition is making them all stronger.

The answer to that question is no but because of the strength of the US which can't be said in Russia.
No Russian team is equal to w/p so no to that as well.
But russia doesn't have an environment where competiton is making people stronger. So there is no room for incompetence and laziness or turning a blind eye to failures. So there must be consequences.

It's not *all* gloom and doom. Loboda/Drozd won a Junior World medal. Shpielvaya/Smirnov placed 5th and won the YOG. And that is not even including Popova/Vlasenko, who made the JGPF. No, it's not living up to the legacy of Russian ice dance, but there are good teams in the Junior ranks who have talent and will hopefully make the switch better than Y/M did.

It's like American ladies: there's been such a long line of champions that people start freaking out when they stop being dominant. These things go in cycles; it isn't the end of the world if one country stops being dominant for a while. The "lag" will eventually end.

(But if we're going gloom and doom, I was thinking I/K had OGM potential...but then they went and split up.)

If only domination was the problem. The problem is incompetence. When teams to to seniors they become incompetent most of the time. If they were only silver or bronze or winning the gpf and than not winning worlds that would be a problem. But now its almost placing last at the gpf or last or not even making the gpf and then barely being top 10 at worlds. This is not loss of domination but competence.