- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Mao hasnt won a really big event since 2010
Uh, she won the GPF the past 2 years. Other than Worlds there have been no bigger events since 2010 (unless you want to count 4CC, which she won last year).
Mao hasnt won a really big event since 2010
If they skate more or less like last season's Worlds Yuna will of course win by a landslide. She won because she was indisputably the best at that event. I suspect Blades might be thinking more of a scenario like 2011 Worlds, where Miki and Yuna were very closely scored as Yuna made some mistakes. Yuna skipped all but Worlds that season. The judges gave the title to Miki.
Uh, she won the GPF the past 2 years. Other than Worlds there have been no bigger events since 2010 (unless you want to count 4CC, which she won last year).
But they gave her huge scores at WC last year, they always do. It does not seem to have hurt her much-being absent.
Miki scored well because she put her in contention by winning all but one competition she entered that season. As a result, her scores build up through the events and by the time she got to Worlds she was marked like a major contender. Mao is doing the same thing this year, so it will be very interesting to see how the two are compared if both skate well in Sochi.
Oh, I gotta disagree with that.
Comparing Julia's marks across her 3 events this season is all the proof needed when it comes to backing up the assertion that her victory over Carolina was debatable, to put it nicely...personally, I thought it was blatant propping/cheating. :disapp: Carolina was horrible in China but she was better in Russia. Had Julia's PCS been fair or even moderately fair, Carolina would have won gold at COR.
Don't forget the GP season doesn't dictate what will happen at the Olympics. Hardly any of the top finishers in Vancouver had strong GP seasons that year but managed to turn it around and deliver where it counted. I think Carolina's improvement at COR shows she's on the upswing. Her injury is a little worrisome (I think it's back pain issues) but it doesn't seem like it's serious.
I do think if Carolina pulls a COC and skates badly that the judges with give the nod to Julia (assuming she skates well) but if Carolina skates well, I can't see the judges passing her by and over-scoring Julia the way they did at COR, not with Yu-Na and Mao there as well. Scoring is relative to the competition in the field...so Julia scoring within a point of Yu-Na, Carolina and Mao is a little less likely to happen. Julia will still get a boost but it won't as ridiculous as it was at COR.
Mao Asada didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2009-2010 and she won Olympic silver. Shizuka Awakawa didn't win either of her GP assignments in 2005-2006 and she won Olympic gold. Not winning any GP events in an Olympic season isn't nearly as damning as you make it out to be.
I know of no woman in the past 20+ years who has won an Olympic medal without winning a Worlds medal of some colour first. I could see Julia making a great debut like Sasha Cohen did in 2002 but I as with Sasha I don't think than will translate to anything higher than 4th.
Would that this were so!
If Julia wins Europeans, and skates 2 clean programs at Sochi, I predict she'll win gold. (Location will weigh heavily!)
I think that Mirai Nagasu have a great chance to win the bronze medal in Sochi.
Didn't you sort of answer pangtongfan's question?
Besides the last 2 GPF has been sort of anemic.
The heck with it. I'm going to crawl all the way out there on a limb. Here is my very, very early prediction in a nutshell:
-Yuna is going to score anywhere between 210-230 total in Sochi. She is going to win OGM. The lower end of the range gives her a cushion of 1 or 2 mistakes. It also corresponds to the lower end of the range for her Big Ticket Wins (2009 Worlds). The upper end represents the very best we have seen her execute in recent years, plus PCS in the SP more in line with her peak LP (230 is approximately the scoring level of her Vancouver OGM winning performances, which represents the upper range of her Big Ticket Wins).
For those already hinting at her demise based on her "rusty" first outing this year at Golden Spin, I will merely point out that it tracks almost identically, in terms of score, with her debut performance at NRW last year. And we know all know how last season ended up. There were quite a few people who should have been in line to eat crow after Fake London, although it seems to me that some chose to scamper off and lay low for a while rather than enjoy that peculiar dish, only to saunter back with a quite admirable nonchalance at a later date to engage in more of the same...
Moreover, this imperfect performance by Yuna (204-ish) is already at a scoring level that can contend for Olympic gold, given the demonstrated scoring ranges of the top ladies competitors this year. The season scoring ranges for the GPF ladies are, in all likelihood, already reflective of something close to their performance peaks; Yuna, meanwhile, still has significant room to improve.
-Mao will score anywhere between 190 and 210, and will win the OSM. 210 is a score she has not yet achieved. In her entire career. Her best scoring performances in recent years have been at the Vancouver Olympics (around 205), this year's SA (around 205), NHK this year (around 207), and GPF this year (around 204). Contrary to some declarations in this thread, this season's performances represent, in fact, her peak results, her demonstrated scoring ceiling. 190, give or take, is the level that Mao shows when she is a notch below her peak.
"Regression to the Mean" is a powerful concept in both statistics and in human affairs, and I see no reason to believe that it will not continue to operate at Sochi. To assume that Mao can significantly improve on her scores, beyond 210, is to assume a performance set that has not yet been seen, at this, the tail-end of her career.
-I've said before that IMO the fight for bronze is going to be the battle royale on the ladies side, with my picks for likely contenders being Caro, Julia, and Ashley. But I'm not even wholly confident of this somewhat broad prediction; this is because there are something like a dozen women who could score somewhere between 185-200 if they skate well. The slope of the bell-shaped curve starts to increase sharply at this level.
I hope all the skaters are fit and healthy for Sochi, and we can all see how we did in our saying of sooth.
I would rank them in order of worthiness
1. Carolina. Hello.
2. Akiko. Hello
3. Ashley
4. Adelina
5. Gracie
6. Julia
What makes these ladies more "worthy" than say Yuna or Mao? And secondly, what makes Adelina and gracie more "worthy" than Julia?
I would rank them in order of worthiness
1. Carolina. Hello.
2. Akiko. Hello
Thank you for stating the obvious.
it will likely be one of the russian girls...most likely julia. Adelina can be fabulous but often crumbles under intense pressure (and her flip is out of control). Ditto for gracie. Akiko is sweet and wonderful but not really a medal contender in terms of her components or her internal mettle. Ashley could possibly end up on the podium but her long program this season is somewhat disappointing (wayyy too much dead space in the middle of the program with virtually no choreography). She'll need julia to fall on a jump or two to have much of a chance.