GP assigments 2013/2014

[b-man]

ETA: I was so excited about the news that I made a spreadsheet of predictions -- as of now, only the ladies. You can view it here, if you like:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtLbltV2arPkdERaX18xRVR2NjJhTFlDdm5IZGlzTmc#gid=0

I agree Wagner should get silver at TEB, and not less than silver at SA, in what I think are two of the easier fields. But you have a lot more faith in Gold than I, as I think SC and NHK are tougher fields than what Wagner will encounter. You have Gold beating Suzuki twice, including in Japan. Suzuki will obviously be tough to beat in Japan. At SC, Gold will not only need to beat Suzuki for a silver, but also Korpi, Julia L. and Osmond, who can be very tough in Canada.

You have Gao with a 5th and 7th, Nagasu with a 4th and 6th, and Zawadski with a 5th and 7th. Those are all very possible, which would certainly be a letdown for the three Americans after all having medaled last year.

 

[gmyers]

I can't speak on behalf of Korpi's current state of health, but with Lipnitskaia's body changes, we don't know if she'll still be capable of last season's success.

LOL - the last time skated was pretty good almost winning jr worlds. And its total career collapse by the GP season!!

 

[ForeverFish]

I agree Wagner should get silver at TEB, and not less than silver at SA, in what I think are two of the easier fields. But you have a lot more faith in Gold than I, as I think SC and NHK are tougher fields than what Wagner will encounter. You have Gold beating Suzuki twice, including in Japan. Suzuki will obviously be tough to beat in Japan. At SC, Gold will not only need to beat Suzuki for a silver, but also Korpi, Julia L. and Osmond, who can be very tough in Canada.

You have Gao with a 5th and 7th, Nagasu with a 4th and 6th, and Zawadski with a 5th and 7th. Those are all very possible, which would certainly be a letdown for the three Americans after all having medaled last year.

I think Gold can beat Suzuki with her TES (if CLEAN or close to), since Suzuki's huge WTT PCS seemed like a one-time spike -- higher than anything she achieved all season, even in Japan. If Gold isn't clean, then Suzuki will almost certainly pass her.

After the Chan hoopla about Worlds (also a Canadian in Canada), national federations will probably be more careful to not inflate the scores of one of their own. Osmond is prone to falling or making other major errors in the FS; Gold, not so much. Gold nearly beat Korpi at 2012 CoR with a messy FS, so I don't have many doubts about her ability to out-skate Korpi, whose PB is 11 points lower than Gold's and whose TES is significantly lower. And I've never been too impressed with Julia L -- other than her insane flexibility, there's not much to her skating in terms of SS, TES, or PCS in general. She really seemed to struggle with clean programs last season, even before injury, and with body changes, who knows what the GP will bring?

I really hope that I'm wrong about Nagasu, Gao, and Zawadzki. It would be a poor start to the Olympic season for all of them, especially since those three are in the running for the 3rd Olympic spot at Nationals.

 

[b-man]

LOL - the last time skated was pretty good almost winning jr worlds. And its total career collapse by the GP season!!

Julia won almost everything in 2011-12 season, with huge scores. You mention jr worlds, her second place this past year was 20 points+ below her 2012 jr worlds. Is she still as good as she was 2011-2012?

 

[ForeverFish]

LOL - the last time skated was pretty good almost winning jr worlds. And its total career collapse by the GP season!!

Obviously the competition at Jr. Worlds is far more subdued than that on the *senior* GP in the Olympic season. I'll say it right now -- Lipnitskaia probably won't medal at either of her events, barring disaster from the other competitors. That doesn't suggest "total career collapse," but rather, a significant disadvantage in terms of skating skills, technical abilities, and experience. Compare that to the other young seniors like Gold and Osmond, and you'll see the space wherein.

I don't know how close "almost winning" is, since she lost to Radionova by 4 points. And this was after Radionova fell, UR'ed two jumps, and received two edge calls.

 

[gmyers]

Julia won almost everything in 2011-12 season, with huge scores. You mention jr worlds, her second place this past year was 20 points+ below her 2012 jr worlds. Is she still as good as she was 2011-2012?

Almost yes! once she went back to her 2012 jr worlds jumps she almost was. She was very close. Radionova barely beat her and she has all triples and triple triples and triple sequences. So I would have to say yes Julia was almost as good as she was in 2012 in 2013 as she was doing almost the same thing. She went through a stage where tried 3/3 in FS and for some reason it didn't work as well as hoped but then she went back to non 3/3 free skates and almost repeated. Unfortunately in 2013 jr worlds SP she made a big mistake but then rebounded very well.

 

[ForeverFish]

Almost yes! once she went back to her 2012 jr worlds jumps she almost was. She was very close. Radionova barely beat her and she has all triples and triple triples and triple sequences. So I would have to say yes Julia was almost as good as she was in 2012 in 2013 as she was doing almost the same thing. She went through a stage where tried 3/3 in FS and for some reason it didn't work as well as hoped but then she went back to non 3/3 free skates and almost repeated. Unfortunately in 2013 jr worlds SP she made a big mistake but then rebounded very well.

I think you're missing b-man's point. Julia's JW score was *20 points* lower this year than last year, and she lost the title to Radionova, a first-season *junior*, who didn't have the best performance either.

Julia's jumps are below average. Her PCS is below average. Her spins are nice, but you can't win a GP event based on spins alone.

 

[gmyers]

I think you're missing b-man's point. Julia's JW score was *20 points* lower this year than last year, and she lost the title to Radionova, a first-season *junior*.

Julia's jumps are below average. Her PCS is below average. Her spins are nice, but you can't win a GP event based on spins alone.

I am not talking about winning! How about a medal? Or a 4th? Not this total career collapse with a skater doing all triples even though are not totally amazing and perfect in every way. I am betting all the revolutions will be there.

 

[ForeverFish]

I am not talking about winning! How about a medal? Or a 4th? Not this total career collapse with a skater doing all triples even though are not totally amazing and perfect in every way. I am betting all the revolutions will be there.

I am not talking about "total career collapse." Where/when did I suggest that Julia would bomb right out of the senior ranks?

No, she probably won't win a medal. I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed. Have you SEEN the fields she's up against? Unless you're suggesting that she can surpass Kim, Suzuki, Gold, Kostner, or Murakami, you're grasping at straws.

Korpi can beat her. Osmond can beat her. Tuktamysheva HAS beat her. I can't seem to find the proof behind your argument.

 

[R.D.]

You have Gao with a 5th and 7th, Nagasu with a 4th and 6th, and Zawadski with a 5th and 7th. Those are all very possible, which would certainly be a letdown for the three Americans after all having medaled last year.

Perhaps...but better to peak later than earlier. I'd not want them at their best until 2-3 months later. That goes especially for Wagner (miss peak-too-soon)

I really hope that I'm wrong about Nagasu, Gao, and Zawadzki. It would be a poor start to the Olympic season for all of them, especially since those three are in the running for the 3rd Olympic spot at Nationals.

Hey, let them get a "poor start" if necessary- work out the kinks, jitters, etc. The worst they can do is come out like gangbusters and then run out of steam at the most critical point...

 

[gmyers]

I am not talking about "total career collapse." Where/when did I suggest that Julia would bomb right out of the senior ranks?

No, she probably won't win a medal. I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed. Have you SEEN the fields she's up against? Unless you're suggesting that she can surpass Kim, Suzuki, Gold, Kostner, or Murakami, you're grasping at straws.

Korpi can beat her. Osmond can beat her. Tuktamysheva HAS beat her. I can't seem to find the proof behind your argument.

Well Lipnitskaia HAS beat Korpi! She beat her at Finlandia. Now you say that's impossible? Maybe Osmond can beat Lipnitskaia - I don't know. Just because Osmond beat Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva doesn't mean Lipniskaia can't beat Osmond. I think your GP rankings indicate Lipnitskaia bombing out of senior ranks. I predict Julia wins a medal at COR.

 

[ForeverFish]

Perhaps...but better to peak later than earlier. I'd not want them at their best until 2-3 months later. That goes especially for Wagner (miss peak-too-soon)

Right. The only one of the three who MAY medal is Nagasu, since she did so at NHK last year. Of course, she didn't beat Li by much, but it was still impressive.

I'd like them to hit a small peak during the GP, if only to prove that they CAN be competitive with the best in the world. It's one thing to place 4th by a small margin, but another entirely to place 7th or 8th while at their best.

 

[ForeverFish]

Well Lipnitskaia HAS beat Korpi! She beat her at Finlandia. Now you say that's impossible? Maybe Osmond can beat Lipnitskaia - I don't know. Just because Osmond beat Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva doesn't mean Lipniskaia can't beat Osmond. I think your GP rankings indicate Lipnitskaia bombing out of senior ranks.

I'm well aware of Lipnitskaia's past results; I said *can*, not *will*, and I never used the word "impossible." Ice, after all, is slippery. Please stop trying to put words in my mouth.

I'm sorry if my GP rankings make you feel this way, but that wasn't how I intended them to look -- for ANY skater, not just Lipnitskaia. You are, as always, free to compile your own list based on what you think is likely.

 

[sk8ingcoach]

I dont see Julia making the final at all

Obviously Yuna, Kostner, Asada, Wagner based on past results are pretty much certain for the final. But the last 2 spots are more likely to go to Suzuki, Osmond, Korpi, Li or Tuk. Julia is up against some big competition and i dont see her making the final.

 

[gmyers]

I don't see Julia making the final. Maybe silver or bronze at cor as her high for the gp series. I will make further predictions but the collapse of julias career stood out in the predictions I did read.

 

[chuckm]

I dont see Julia making the final at all

Obviously Yuna, Kostner, Asada, Wagner based on past results are pretty much certain for the final. But the last 2 spots are more likely to go to Suzuki, Osmond, Korpi, Li or Tuk. Julia is up against some big competition and i dont see her making the final.

Osmond is more likely to make the final than Gold? Osmond won't win SC vs Kim, and there's no guarantee she will beat Gold and/or Suzuki there. At CoR, she won't beat Kostner; Murakami and possibly Lipnitskaia could pass her. Osmond has to skate clean free skates to stake a claim to the final, and she hasn't done that even once in international competition so far.

 

[sky_fly20]

its funny people already predict Julia will collapse lol

she beat Wagner and Asada last season in the SP
and medaled in both GP despite her injuries, she is used to a tough
list of competition have you forgotten who she was up against last season ?

while Gold is lock for Kim and silver to Osmond ( home ice inflation as usual ) at SC but at CoR she can even win gold medal

 

[AlexRus]

Well he stopped being the best after the jrgpf. His skating in seniors was totally inferior to menshov especially. Once he was exclusively senior he was horrible! Just an embarrassment.

Let us see the facts.
Kovtun had 3 Senior attempts to earn Season Best (Euro, Worlds, WTT).
Menshov - also 3 (two GP Events, WTT).
Voronov - also 3 (two GP Events, Euro).
Hovtun earhed highest Season Best of these three skaters.

Senior Competitions:
At Euro were Kovtun, Pluschenko, Voronov. Kovtun first of them.
At WTT were Kovtun, Menshov. Kovtun first of them.

So both Menshov and Voronov had chances. But Kovtun was higher.

Btw, Menshov at WTT had injury because of his own mistake. First jumping element at FS was good, second step out, third fall and injury.

 

[karne]

You can't use WTT. Menshov was kicking Kovtun's backside before his shoulder popped out and even with the fall on the 3A in the long I'd wager he'd still have beaten him.

 

[AlexRus]

Yeah Samantha Cesario really should have got that Skate America spot. Especially after getting screwed over at Junior Worlds, where she so completely deserved a medal.

Samantha Cesario "screwed herself" by her multiple URs in FS.
These URs are absolutely visible om video avaliable at Youtube.

"Technical Controller was American, Ms. Sissy KRICK."
No. Correction - she is German. American is Assistant Technical Specialist Mr. David KIRBY.

Do you want to tell that he doesn't see difference between Ured and nonURed jumps?
Or do you want to tell that he is so anti-patriotic to allow fake URs for American skater?