Gracie Gold: Can she medal at JW (and beyond)?
- Thread starter drivingmissdaisy
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- Feb 17, 2010
Thanks, for some reason Rachel Flatt threads seem to turn into Gracie threads lol
Yes she can medal! I don't know if she is a favorite to medal though, and I say that because she isn't that experienced yet competing in important events. I guess I would be mildly surprised if she were to medal, and very surprised if she won.
Yes she can medal! I don't know if she is a favorite to medal though, and I say that because she isn't that experienced yet competing in important events. I guess I would be mildly surprised if she were to medal, and very surprised if she won.
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- Jan 7, 2011
Don't forget that Gracie Gold came out of nowhere at JGP Estonia, her first international competition, and not a planned one, to not only win it, but do so with the second highest score in the entire JGP series. She has pretty much had the same amount of jumps landed and ratified in her last batches of competitions since then. There's a very good chance she'll do so again at JW. If she does, I don't see how they can keep her off the podium. In fact, I think she may be a contender for gold, unless the judges really hold her down on PCS (which they shouldn't, as she has very good skating skills).
Guess I should answer my own thread, yes?
I think she can medal. Gracie Gold is actually ahead of Adelina on the Season's Best — granted Adelina did not have the best GP season, but still worth noting.
Here's a comparison of LP between the four skaters.
Highest base value during this season
Julia Lipintskaya — 56.91
Elizaveta Tuktamisheva — 53.07 (minus spiral)
Gracie Gold — 51.61
Adelina Sotnikova — 50.08
I believe that all four have the potential to score higher and I expect all of them to be in the 56-58 range if they all skate clean. Gracie may end up with lower PCS as she's relatively new to the International Scene, but she should improve since she has a JGP win under her belt.
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- Oct 22, 2005
That was in a post somewhere here about what Mishin said and speculation that Tuktamysheva may withdraw citing exhaustion.
I don't think Gracie will be under any more or less pressure at JWs than she has been all season. Skate clean, end up on the podium (likely), make too many mistakes, go home empty handed.
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- Oct 22, 2005
She's also fast and has really good ice coverage (she looks better at home in practice than she did at Nationals where she was a little nervous). If she can skate at least an 80% or 90% program, she can end up on the podium and making sure she gets all her spin levels, up her tech score a little.
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Does anyone know for sure whether Liza is withdrawing. Julia won Jr Russian Nationals, so I assume she is going, and wasn't Adelina prenamed, which is why she didn't compete at Jr. Russians?
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- Dec 21, 2011
No. People are just speculating. The only thing that was officially said, unless I am mistaken, are that Liza and Adelina BOTH have a bye. The Russian team has not been officially named yet, so we will not know until then if Liza turned her bye down or not but for one am extremely skeptical. Eliza complained about being tired once, after Russian senior nats, unless I am much mistaken, and Mishin said at that time he expected her at practice on Monday or something like that. I personally will believe that the team is not Eliza, Julia, Adelina when I see it.
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- Dec 21, 2011
I think she can particularly if speculation is right and Liza is not named to the Russian team (I've discussed elsewhere that I don't think that will be the case but you never know).
However, I think that, being realistic, one of the Russians will need to make a mistake for her to medal. They are better known than her internationally and this gives them an edge on PCS, probably fairly (IMO) in the case of Julia and Adelina and less fairly in the case of Liza.
However, if any of them mess up and Gracie is clean I think she not only has a chance to medal but it is a virtual certainty that she will medal.
However, I think that, being realistic, one of the Russians will need to make a mistake for her to medal. They are better known than her internationally and this gives them an edge on PCS, probably fairly (IMO) in the case of Julia and Adelina and less fairly in the case of Liza.
However, if any of them mess up and Gracie is clean I think she not only has a chance to medal but it is a virtual certainty that she will medal.
Gracie can win a medal at Junior Worlds, but I don't think she's one of the favorites. If she skates cleanly, she should earn a very high TES score. However, I don't think her PCS score will match the other top competitors. 1) She lacks the international experience most of the other top junior skaters have. 2) Both of her programs are underwhelming. 3) She appears to rush through her programs with no real connection to the music. 4) She doesn't skate gracefully. I'm surprised her coaches haven't done something about her arm placement (they seem to be flopping around quite a bit) at the very least.
That said, I'm excited about her future. I hope she keeps her jumps and develops a sense of artistry. She could be helped by taking ballet classes or working with a top choreographer/coach. She'll need to improve if she wants to do well at the senior level.
That said, I'm excited about her future. I hope she keeps her jumps and develops a sense of artistry. She could be helped by taking ballet classes or working with a top choreographer/coach. She'll need to improve if she wants to do well at the senior level.
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- Mar 14, 2006
Selene, Welcome to GS!!
I agree with your assessment of Gracie. I'm having a little trouble jumping on the bandwagon just yet for the reasons you mention. Guess she has a first things first approach.
I agree with your assessment of Gracie. I'm having a little trouble jumping on the bandwagon just yet for the reasons you mention. Guess she has a first things first approach.
From what I saw of her Gala exhibition I agree. I didn't see a STAR out there, or at least not a skater who would be deserving of the hype she has received thus far.
BUT- it doesn't mean it can't happen in the future. Not everyone peaks at 16.
ETA: If she holds the fort, it's possible she may have success at the Meissner/SHughes level- perhaps capitalizing on top skaters' mistakes to sneak in for the win with a solid technical performance. Can't really see a Cohen-level career though where she's always in the hunt even with mistakes, and most certainly don't see a Kwan-level one which is really once-in-a-generation.
BUT- it doesn't mean it can't happen in the future. Not everyone peaks at 16.
ETA: If she holds the fort, it's possible she may have success at the Meissner/SHughes level- perhaps capitalizing on top skaters' mistakes to sneak in for the win with a solid technical performance. Can't really see a Cohen-level career though where she's always in the hunt even with mistakes, and most certainly don't see a Kwan-level one which is really once-in-a-generation.
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^^^^^
Hmm. I'm not surprised. I bet she's really at the Angela/Tonia K/Jenny level along with Mirai, Rachel, Alyssa and Ashley. (This is the level of a good but not great skater, who may come in the top 10 at worlds, once in a while a top 5 or 6, but rarely is a medal contender. In other words, like the second tier under Michelle, Tara, Sasha, etc.)
I'm beginning to doubt that the USA will have another medal contender in the next decade, at least.
I thought she was really good at the exhibition, but she did make a mistake, and I'm sure they'll cookie-cutter her with the hair bun and a program to soft, tuneless music.
Hmm. I'm not surprised. I bet she's really at the Angela/Tonia K/Jenny level along with Mirai, Rachel, Alyssa and Ashley. (This is the level of a good but not great skater, who may come in the top 10 at worlds, once in a while a top 5 or 6, but rarely is a medal contender. In other words, like the second tier under Michelle, Tara, Sasha, etc.)
I'm beginning to doubt that the USA will have another medal contender in the next decade, at least.
I thought she was really good at the exhibition, but she did make a mistake, and I'm sure they'll cookie-cutter her with the hair bun and a program to soft, tuneless music.
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Wow, she went from the hope of U.S. Ladies Figure skating to second-tier skater in less than two weeks.
I don't get this hot-and-cold feeling everyone seems to have about her lately. Some thoughts:
1.) Being a star does not = competitive thriving skater. What it takes is a desire to succeed, to willingness to put the effort toward that success and to never give up even when things don't go your way and to fight for everything.
Great example of this Jeremy Lin, who has received a ton of buzz for his big game with the New York Knicks in the last few weeks. Lin did not receive any athletic scholarships after high school, was not drafted after college and was slow in developing his NBA career. But yet Lin kept working at it and the fruit of that work was those recent games.
2.) Being a success at 16 does not equal success long-term. We've talked about this; I won't repeat myself here.
As I maintain in my past posts. Let's acknowledge what she has (solid jump technique, good skating skills and a solid work ethic) and what she doesn't (artistic development, lines, posture). It's fun to speculate how she will do in future competition; I think it's a bit much to speculate that she's second-tier when she hasn't proven that she is or isn't yet.
I don't get this hot-and-cold feeling everyone seems to have about her lately. Some thoughts:
1.) Being a star does not = competitive thriving skater. What it takes is a desire to succeed, to willingness to put the effort toward that success and to never give up even when things don't go your way and to fight for everything.
Great example of this Jeremy Lin, who has received a ton of buzz for his big game with the New York Knicks in the last few weeks. Lin did not receive any athletic scholarships after high school, was not drafted after college and was slow in developing his NBA career. But yet Lin kept working at it and the fruit of that work was those recent games.
2.) Being a success at 16 does not equal success long-term. We've talked about this; I won't repeat myself here.
As I maintain in my past posts. Let's acknowledge what she has (solid jump technique, good skating skills and a solid work ethic) and what she doesn't (artistic development, lines, posture). It's fun to speculate how she will do in future competition; I think it's a bit much to speculate that she's second-tier when she hasn't proven that she is or isn't yet.
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- Dec 21, 2011
The thing about Liza is that she has a lot of transitions coming out of her jumps, and she engages the audience and puts a lot of energy into her performances which is what gives her the PCS's that she's getting.
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- Jan 7, 2011
Oh lawdy, if you're judging Gracie's potential by one gala skate, you have missed the entire picture. You know what Gracie Gold has that no American women skater has had? All 5 triples, plus the ability to tack a 3toe on the end of any of them (or a 2axel), consistently without any edge or UR calls. It's not just among American women. Currently, that's a skill set no other female skater in the world can boast. If she can stop making that one jump mistake in the LP she seems to do now, she would unquestionably be the best jumper in ladies. As it is, she has the best arsenal of jumps. She also has the flexibility to get high levels on spins, and the skating skills to get high levels on footwork. She has the best technical abilities of any woman skating right now.
What she lacks is the artistry, musical sensitivity and audience connection, which aren't things her peers in juniors have much of, either. But you don't need those to win in this day and age where SS drives the rest of the PCS.
I love artistry and musicality and all that jazz, too. But A) I don't think Gracie is unable to pick those up, especially if she's given better competitive programs. B) Just once in a while, it'd be nice to see the venerable US ladies figure skating program win something.
Aliss Czisny has been the only senior US lady to win anything internationally in the last few seasons. She can't do it alone! A skater like Gracie with almost the maximum technical capabilities is just the shot in the arm the doctor ordered. Even if you don't care for her skating, she has the great potential to draw more attention to US figure skating, win more slots for her peers to use and push the technical envelope among her countrywomen.
What she lacks is the artistry, musical sensitivity and audience connection, which aren't things her peers in juniors have much of, either. But you don't need those to win in this day and age where SS drives the rest of the PCS.
I love artistry and musicality and all that jazz, too. But A) I don't think Gracie is unable to pick those up, especially if she's given better competitive programs. B) Just once in a while, it'd be nice to see the venerable US ladies figure skating program win something.
Aliss Czisny has been the only senior US lady to win anything internationally in the last few seasons. She can't do it alone! A skater like Gracie with almost the maximum technical capabilities is just the shot in the arm the doctor ordered. Even if you don't care for her skating, she has the great potential to draw more attention to US figure skating, win more slots for her peers to use and push the technical envelope among her countrywomen.
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2011
I guess we really can't say anything until she turns senior next year and goes to gp. Last year, I watched Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova and thought Sotnikova would be more successful in seniors her first year. I was wrong. It changed and Tuktamysheva was far more consistent and had better jumps. The same with Gold- can we really say anything until next year? No. Everything might go horrible for her in the future or really awesome or so-so. I think she could get a bronze this year at worlds mostly because of Sotnikova (except for her great performance at nationals, it was a rough season). Tuktamysheva would need a meltdown to be beat, not just a few step-outs. Lipnitskaya is virtually unbeatable for Gracie since she has not had one bad skate this whole year at any competitions. Even with easier jump content, she racks up points for spins like Czisny.
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