Grand Prix Analysis, Winners/Losers

[Nathan13]

A poor man's version of Kostner is not an insult to Wagner as she is much less successful and talented than her.

Thats not insulting at all :shocked:

 

[MaxSwagg]

Elena does have better spins, but her jumps are looking less certain than last season - we'll see how those messy landings look this year. For the time being, Ashley also has a higher PCS ceiling. Elena probably has an overall higher ceiling long-term, but perhaps not next season.

Ashley was a late bloomer. Her issues with technique held her back a lot, and it's a shame she didn't start with Raf sooner. She can definitely medal but it's generally dependent on one or two skaters making mistakes.

There is no way whatsoever that Ashley Wagner should be getting anywhere near the highest skating skills or transitions scores. And yes, she has managed to bamboozle people into thinking she is some spectacular skater.

 

[Mathman]

Mao! Mao! Mao!

 

[andromache]

There is no way whatsoever that Ashley Wagner should be getting anywhere near the highest skating skills or transitions scores. And yes, she has managed to bamboozle people into thinking she is some spectacular skater.

"There is no way whatsoever that [insert skater here] should be getting anywhere near the highest skating skills or transitions scores"

PCS are awarded unfairly to everyone. If you're the top (as objectively as possible) in one category you'll get high scores in the others - this is what the judges have deemed. It's not as though Carolina Kostner deserved the transition scores she earned. Holding this against Ashley alone is ridiculous.

 

[MaxSwagg]

"There is no way whatsoever that [insert skater here] should be getting anywhere near the highest skating skills or transitions scores"

PCS are awarded unfairly to everyone. If you're the top (as objectively as possible) in one category you'll get high scores in the others - this is what the judges have deemed. It's not as though Carolina Kostner deserved the transition scores she earned. Holding this against Ashley alone is ridiculous.

Carolina Kostner wasn't competing Boston, if I recall.

 

[Seren]

Back to the Grand Prix...

I expect Evgenia and Satoko to do well. They are both such strong competitors that it didn't really matter what they drew. I am looking forward to Skate Canada and seeing how they stack up against each other (in addition to seeing Mirai who I love). If they both go clean I think Medvedeva has the advantage but Satoko is so consistent that she could sneak ahead if Evgenia makes a mistake.

I agree with the OP that Anna Pogorilaya probably drew as favorably as she could. Rostelecom Cup is probably one of the weaker fields and if she skates to her ability she should win it. NHK is a different story because at her best she can beat Satoko but as we know Anna does not always skate her best (and Anna is my favorite Russian skater so I don't say this to be mean, her falls can be scary).

I don't envy Mao or Gracie either- they both skate in two deep fields (Skate America and Trophee de France). Mao at her best is magical but what Mao will we see this year? And we all know Gracie's talent but can she put it together in her head is the question. Both are capable of making the GPF.

As a skating fan, and skater myself, I don't understand how aggressively Ashley Wagner gets put down. No, she is technically not at the level of some of the other elite skaters but if skating was purely technical we'd have everyone wearing the same costume doing the same jumps and spins in a row with no music or creativity. I really agreed with what the Brittish Eurosport commentator said about her after her Worlds freeskate- that even though the program was not as technically difficult and even though her technique was not as pure as some of the other girls she would have moved more people than anyone else. Ashley is a performer. She is a late bloomer and is actively working on addressing her weaknesses and getting better. She has also learned to be a better competitor over the last several years with Raf. Because of all these factors, I have a really difficult time making any sort of predictions about her. I think it's probably wise to never count her out.

 

[OS]

When is the last time Mao did not get nhk?

 

[Biellmann]

Yuzuru vs Patrick in Chanada... oh well

 

[largeman]

My predictions:
Shoo-ins: Medvedeva, Miyahara
Other high potential candidates: Sotskova, Lipnitskaya, Higuchi, Mihara, Wagner, Nagasu, Na Hyun Kim (any four of these seven)
Not as likely: Radionova, Pogorilaya, Tuktamysheva, Hongo, Gold, Edmunds

 

[kalee]

Wouldn't Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaya be reversed? Based on their current performance in CS, Tukt's jumps appear to be more stable than Lip's as the moment.

 

[apons575]

Ashley Wagner got the honor of getting 16'th place at her debut worlds. She is associated with loud satements and mediocre skill. She got silver in boston, with a desperate USFS trying to regain historic women's singles success, getting 215 pt. score (which she will NEVER get again). SUDDENLY, she is a contender. SUDDENLY, she gets high PCS because people think she is a poor man's version of Kostner. Nobody should get inflated PCS just because they are preceived as a poor man's versin of Kostner (or any component skater, for that matter). The 2015-2016 season was Ashely's apex rather than a stepping stone.

Sounds like sour grapes to me. Ashley is the best performer in the field. Get over it, and go back to eating potato chips on the couch. :sarcasm:

 

[MaxSwagg]

Sounds like sour grapes to me. Ashley is the best performer in the field. Get over it, and go back to eating potato chips on the couch. :sarcasm:

Um...no. She is no where near Kostner and Asada when it comes to performance and definitely not skating skills. And sorry; I don't count OTT facial expressions as transitions and I can't be bamboozled by those gimmicks...

 

[apons575]

Carolina Kostner wasn't competing Boston, if I recall.

Um...no. She is no where near Kostner and Asada when it comes to performance and definitely not skating skills. And sorry; I don't count OTT facial expressions as transitions and I can't be bamboozled by those gimmicks...

Like you said....Kostner didn't skate in Boston, nor here....so if we play by your rules, we can't compare. :sarcasm:

Your opinion of her performance skills is perfectly subjective, but respect that some others find her scores to be deserved. Also, don't forget that there is FIVE categories to PCS, and Performance/Execution, Choreography/Composition and Interpretation ALL contribute to Wagner's talent and deserved scores. And GLAMOUR.

 

[MaxSwagg]

Like you said....Kostner didn't skate in Boston, nor here....so if we play by your rules, we can't compare. :sarcasm:

Your opinion of her performance skills is perfectly subjective, but respect that some others find her scores to be deserved. Also, don't forget that there is FIVE categories to PCS, and Performance/Execution, Choreography/Composition and Interpretation ALL contribute to Wagner's talent and deserved scores. And GLAMOUR.

This is pretty much Moulin Rouge 2.0. And skating skills aren't subjective. You've clearly been bamboozled...

 

[apons575]

This is pretty much Moulin Rouge 2.0. And skating skills aren't subjective. You've clearly been bamboozled...

OH, I apologize. I forgot. Figure skating isn't subjective. :rofl2:

 

[artsciboy]

Um...no. She is no where near Kostner and Asada when it comes to performance and definitely not skating skills. And sorry; I don't count OTT facial expressions as transitions and I can't be bamboozled by those gimmicks...

I disagree that Ashley doesn't match Kostner or Asada when it comes to performance. To each their own. As for transitions, as impressive as Kostner's skating skills are, her competitive programs have always been pretty empty and yet she gets those way too high transition scores. In terms of Ashley being OTT, that moment when Kostner stops and has a standing-up seizure before her footwork sequence in Bolero always makes me cringe.

 

[Seren]

This is pretty much Moulin Rouge 2.0. And skating skills aren't subjective. You've clearly been bamboozled...

I take offense to the notion that anyone who thinks Ashley has generally strong program components has been "bamboozled". If that's the case then apparently a lot of international judges have been- and remember, it takes a lot of work to be an international judge. Parts of skating are subjective- no matter how much IJS gets refined there will always be an element of subjectivity in performance, choreography and interpretation. It's pretty clear that you dislike Ashley's skating- and that's your opinion which you are entitled to. But please don't act like it's the only correct opinion.

 

[[email protected]]

I think based on what I saw so far this season:

Skate America-
Favourite: Ashley Wagner
Contenders: Mao Asada, Gracie Gold, Gabby Daleman
Dark Horses: Yulia Lipnitskaya

Depending on Mao's condition it is either an OK or one of the weakest fields. Gracie just not there yet and it does not look she will be. Her pcs at JO were at 62 - may be it is the first sign of placing it where it should be. Outside the big uknown Mao factor Ashley is a strong favorite here. So she is the lucky winner. But Mao is a winner as well as she does not have Medvedeva or Satoko.

Skate Canada-
Favourites: Evgenia Medvedeva
Contender: Satoko Miyahara
Dark Horses: Rika Hongo, Liza Tuktamysheva, Mirai Nagasu
Alaine Chartrand, Kaetlyn Osmond

Come on, no one can beat clean Medvedeva and she brought no doubts yesterday about her capability of being clean. And the rest of the pack cannot beat Satoko. Hence, Medvedeva does not care. Satoko is the loser to compete against the only skater she cannot win. Everybody else are losers as they will have only bronze left.

Rostelecom Cup-
Favourites: Anna Pogorilaya,
Contenders: Yulia Lipnitskaya, Polina Edmunds, Elena Radionova
Dark Horses: Zijun Li

I don't think anyone can meddle into Anna vs. Elena contest if Elena is at least at her year end form. But if she is at her test skates form she is just a contender and Anna looks like a winner.

Trophee de France-
Favourite: Evgenia Medvedeva,
Contenders: Mao Asada, Gracie Gold
Dark Horses: Wakaba Higuchi, Maria Sotskova, Gabby Daleman

May be some unluck happens to Zhenya between now and then but so far she is the only favorite there with 2 contenders for the medals who are losers (have to compete against Medvedeva)

Cup of China-
Favourite: Ashley Wagner
Contenders: Rika Hongo, Liza Tuktamysheva, Elena Radionova
Dark Horses: Kaetlyn Osmond, Zijun Li

Same as before, if Lena recovers she is a favourite with Ashley but we don't know now. Then she is a conetnder.

NHK Trophy-
Favourites: Satoko Miyahara, Anna Pogorilaya
Dark Horses: Alaine Chartrand, Wakaba Higuchi, Elizabet Tursynbaeva, Maria Sotskova, Polina Edmunds, Mirai Nagasu

Well, the biggest winner is Ashley. I am sure she will get to GPF. Satoko would be a loser if she had to meet 2 of the three skaters: Zhenya, Ashley, Anna at 1 competition. But she won't. Than 2+2 is almost certain and she is in, hence, a winner. Same holds with Anna - not more than 1 skater who has good chances to beat her in each competition. Also a winner. This brings 4 "sure" finalists: Medvedeva, Wagner, Miyahara, Pogorilaya. If Radionova recovers she has good fields to safely shoot for 2+2 and get the 5th spot. Which brings us to the "losers" out of contenders: Mao, Gracie, and Liza who will have just 1 spot left.

 

[FlattFan]

I disagree that Ashley doesn't match Kostner or Asada when it comes to performance. To each their own. As for transitions, as impressive as Kostner's skating skills are, her competitive programs have always been pretty empty and yet she gets those way too high transition scores. In terms of Ashley being OTT, that moment when Kostner stops and has a standing-up seizure before her footwork sequence in Bolero always makes me cringe.

The varied and/or intricate footwork, positions, movements and holds that link
all elements. In singles and pairs this also includes the entrances and exits of
technical elements.
In evaluating the Transitions/Linking Footwork and Movement, the following
must be considered:
– Variety;
– Difficulty;
– Intricacy;
– Quality (including unison in Pair Skating);

Kostner has higher transition scores because she checked all the boxes. The quality is top shelf with a lot of speed. Clear edge. For example, just look at the linking element before and after the loop. It's so efficient and clean with the highest quality.

You can do a lot of basic transitions with lower quality and will not score as high.

 

[koatcue]

Um...no. She is no where near Kostner and Asada when it comes to performance and definitely not skating skills. And sorry; I don't count OTT facial expressions as transitions and I can't be bamboozled by those gimmicks...

What do you think about Zhenia and other Russian girls?