Hersh's View On What 2011 Worlds Means For US

[Mathman]

I'm not sure about motivating athletes, but it's the quintessential way to sell newspapers.

 

[Serious Business]

I'm not sure about motivating athletes, but it's the quintessential way to sell newspapers.

It's what coaches do with athletes, too.

 

[Blades of Passion]

If she did it'd still be close. If everything else stayed the same, her final score would be 178.95, still 1.8 points short. If we then add the +GOE the judges gave her 3z/2l in the FS, and the +GOE she got her her solo 3z in the FS (she didn't do a solo 3f there) as the +GOE she'd presumably get in the SP, she'd be .4 points short still. That she'd have to make up in the PCS. Probable, yes, but she'd only win for certain if she did a ratified 3z/3l in the SP.

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. She lost 8.2 points on her jumps in that SP, compared to the grade she likely would have received for a clean 3Lutz-2Loop and 3Loop. She lost about 1.4 points on her flying spin for the mistake there, in comparison to what she normally gets. You have to figure that she lost at least 1 point in the PCS for such a flawed SP as well. Add that up and she is 2.5 points behind Czisny in the SP still, but she won the LP by 5.7 points...

 

[Serious Business]

I got my numbers from this: her TSS for the SP = 50.45 - 6.4 (her 3z/3l<< pass) - .9 (her 3f<<) + 7.8 (base marks for 3z/2l) + 5.3 (3flip) = 56.25 That + her FS score of 122.70 = 178.95

My miscalculations: I forgot to add back in the -1 she got the fall, or the -GOE (-.39) she got on her flying sit spin mistake. If I did it'd come out to 57.64. Add that to her FS score of 122.70 = 180.34

Which would still be -.41 behind Alissa's total score. Add in the +GOE she likely would've received (+1.47 for similar elements in the FS) and she'd have won if she skated perfectly in the short with a 3/2 combo. So you were right.

 

[Jaana]

But I am beginning to see it differently. If you have no chance of of winning the championship or of placing on the podium, then the idea of finishing high enough, along with your teammates, to secure an extra spot next year is a laudable goal. It provides motivation and something to shoot for, while still falling within the compass of your ability.

Precisely... Besides, one of those skaters might next season be the skater who finishes 3rd in Nationals and would not be sent to Worlds if only two spots.

 

[pangtongfan]

You are wrong on almost all the facts you cited, pangtongfan:

Miki Ando was the one who skated as well as she could in the FS at the GPF and still lost.

Miki Ando won the LP phase by 6 points (even with the disadvantage of skating 2nd). So she did not "skate as well as she could and still lost". She lost only because she bombed the short program. The long program just confirmed what everyone said before the event, with Kim and Asada out the event was hers to lose (and I am glad she did as I was far happier seeing Czisny win than an overmarked Ando anyway).

People who think judges still leave room in the scores, especially within a single flight of skaters, must've stopped watching figure skating in the mid-90's.

Skating earlier is a slight disadvantage in the scores, even under COP. I could give numerous examples of this. If you dont see this, that is your prerogative.

Alissa was the one who made multiple errors in the FS at the GPF: She stumbled on two jumps, but even worse, completely left out the 2t/2l on her 3t/2t/2l combo. Resulting in a massive loss of points from not doing the element and from getting a sequence discount on her second 3t. She still won the event.

So what was worse, those errors or Ando's huge errors in the short program. The answer is a pretty obvious one. And since a completely clean LP with absolutely no flaws from Czisny is unrealistic that is pretty much the best a realistic clean for her. For Czisny a LP like that and a squeeky clean short is pretty much a dream competition (although she did just as well at Nationals). For Ando a terrible short program like that is something that can be expected to not likely repeat itself.

I already did the number crunching elsewhere. But the only way Miki Ando could've beaten Alissa at the GPF is if she had skated her SP perfectly, including a 3lutz/3loop with no UR call, and that rarely happens. These are all numerical facts.

What a load of BS. If Ando had even tied Akiko Suzuki's SP score she would have won the event. And to suggest the judges would have placed a clean Ando even with a triple lutz-double toe combo below Suzuki in the short program (with the same jumps) is laughable. As if that obvious truth needs to be qualified anymore Ando even with her disaester got higher PCS than Suzuki, and Ando with clean jumps would easily beat Suzuki on TES when Suzuiki barely averaged above 0 on her 3 jump elements in the short. Heck to think they would have placed a clean Ando below Murakami (who was 3 points more up on Suzuki which is already all Ando needed) in the short is very unlikely. Czisny would have won the SP still (most likely), I will give you that much.

Furthermore your number crunching probably accounted for no additional GOE or PCS increase for Ando had she skated that short program cleanly. Given Ando regularly receives postive GOE on virtually all her clean jumps, and the PCS would for sure be higher for a much better skated performance, this is also ridiculous. Never mind, I see it has already been broken down in more detail how wrong you were in your estimates here.

As for your bombastic speculations, I just plain don't care about them.

Good for you, I dont make my posts seeking your approval. And thinking Czisny can beat someone like Yu Na Kim without Kim completely imploding is a far more bombastic speculation than anything I said.



For the record I far prefer Czisny's skating to Ando's. IMO Ando is one of the most overrated and overscored skaters of the last 5 years. And if the judges gave the PCS and GOE on everything I would a clean Ando without the triple-triples would never beat a reasonably good Czisny. However I know that is not the stance of the judges, there is nothing at all that indicates it is (the GPF certainly does not), and with former World Champion Miki Ando on home ice in Japan it will be even less so. Since I would much prefer Czisny on that podium somewhere than Ando I hope Ando peaked at Nationals and doesnt skate nearly as well at Worlds. Since if she does she will be placed above Czisny for sure, even if Czisny skates like she did at her own Nationals.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

a lot can be said about the US Team, although I agree with Hersch. I would like to see the whole team skate their best and hopefully all the US skaters wind up in the top 18. That's more than possible. A top 10 would be stretching it a bit, but possible. For the Newbies to Worlds, it is a matter of making the statement: I'm here and I am not going away.

Most skaters feel if they don't win, at least they were in contention. Unlike fans, who are less forgiving. JMO.

 

[Ginask8s]

If Abbott and or Rippon skate lights out at 4CC is it possible that USFSA will remove one or both of the new boys from the World team?

 

[sequinsgalore]

If Abbott and or Rippon skate lights out at 4CC is it possible that USFSA will remove one or both of the new boys from the World team?

I don't think so... Perhaps if they win with a new world record, but that's not likely given their jump content.

 

[Layfan]

If Abbott and or Rippon skate lights out at 4CC is it possible that USFSA will remove one or both of the new boys from the World team?

Not a chance. If they were going to mess with the team selection it had to be done after nationals and they chose not to. Now, it wouldn't be fair. They can't very well kick Dornbush or Miner off the world team based on a competition neither is even competing in, especially after they'll have been training for worlds for a month.

 

[Mathman]

^ Quite so. The thinking of the USFSA goes like this.

At U.S. Nationals, three spots on the world team were up for grabs. Abbott got fourth.

 

[dorispulaski]

Yes, and further reflection gave that Abbott's age will be 26 this year, as his birthday was June 5, 1985.

If he is not at Worlds, perhaps Evan or Johnny will decide to return to eligible skating, something both of them have hinted at. And the youngsters Miner (just turned 20) and Dornbush (19) have a much long upside. So they left the kids alone, and sent Abbott, Rippon & Mahbanoozadeh to 4CC's and Messing, Aaron & Brown get to go to Jr Worlds, to get their qualifying marks for next year. All the youngsters get some international experience. It's all good.

Why would USFS want to do anything else?

C'est la vie.

 

[Serious Business]

There is no reselection for the world team based on 4cc results in the US. Ever.

For example... Abbott, in his senior debut at US nationals in 2007, was left off the world team after coming in 4th. At that year's 4cc, however, he beat then US silver medalist Ryan Bradley to win bronze. He still had to stay home and watch Ryan splat his way to 15th at Worlds.

The only way Abbott can get on the world team now is if one of the existing team members had to withdraw.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If we could just not hold onto our American hopes, Hersch was correct in his analysi:

One medal for Davis/White; no medals for Pairs; extremely iffy for Men. Bradley will be in a full top drawer field. Czisny has a chance if she skates her best. Mao showed some poor international skating in the GPs, but came back in her hometown comp. We haven't seen Yuna (her last Worlds wasn't special) and how well Oppegard has been training her. Not much else in Ladies and I think Czisny plus Flatt will be a dynamic duo in the comp.

 

[pangtongfan]

I dont see either Lysacek or Weir returning to amateur competition.

In Evan's case I would only see him returning if he thought he had a good shot of winning another World title or even defending his Olympic title in 2014. Unless Patrick Chan runs into some major problems he clearly does not anymore. So for that alone you wont see him back. Add to that the increased value of quads, his age, injuries over the years, etc...Not to mention the Japanese men growing in strength, even if Takahashi retires Kozuka and Oda (particularly Kozuka) are still young and will only get better likely which isnt really true of Evan "amateur" skating wise most likely, as well as additional up and comers like Amodio.

In Weir's case I think he would only comeback if he thought he could contend for a medal, even a bronze, at major events. Since he skated the best he could possibly skate by this point in his career and finished only 6th in Vancouver I dont see anyway he comes back. Add to that he has burnt alot of bridges over the years and went on to diss the judges some since Vancouver.

It is easy to see some on this thread saying well if Bradley can win Nationals why wouldnt Weir or Evan comeback. Well Weir's goal would be to be competitive again at the World level, not just in the U.S. And anyway one could point out someone like Abbott was usually outdoing Weir (especialy at Nationals) the couple years before he retired and even he only came 4th at Nationals. As well Bradley would have bumped Weir right off the Olympic team in 2010 if he hadnt totally bombed the short program at Nationals, and since then quads have been increased in value. So no Weir would not have been cinch to win Nationals or even make the team, just another contender to do so with Evan out. In Evan's case, unlike Weir, the road to the top in the U.S looks pretty easy and he could definitely easily contend for a medal at the World level still. However these still wouldnt meet his own goals I suspect. If he couldnt be competitive with Chan (and he wouldnt be at this point even at his best unless Chan helps him out with several falls atleast) he wouldnt want to return.

 

[Layfan]

If we could just not hold onto our American hopes, Hersch was correct in his analysi:

One medal for Davis/White; no medals for Pairs; extremely iffy for Men. Bradley will be in a full top drawer field. Czisny has a chance if she skates her best. Mao showed some poor international skating in the GPs, but came back in her hometown comp. We haven't seen Yuna (her last Worlds wasn't special) and how well Oppegard has been training her. Not much else in Ladies and I think Czisny plus Flatt will be a dynamic duo in the comp.

Hmm, now that you put it that way - sounds about right! Except for the formidable Japanese ladies, but then, they can be as hot and cold and everyone else.

 

[pangtongfan]

The only U.S medal contenders are Davis & White and Czisny. Davis & White are pretty much a lock for the gold this year, unless Virtue & Moir make a shockingly great return to competition this season (shocking in that if they were anywhere near this best it would be shocking). Czisny could win a silver or bronze if she skates her best and some of the others have problems. I chuckle at the idea of anyone suggesting Bradley or Flatt could hope for a medal, seriously there is even a better chance of a pairs medal or the Shibutani's winning a medal than one of those two medalling.

 

[Nadine]

Hersh is telling it like it is, and I applaud him! :thumbsup:

That said, anything can happen, one only need to look at past history (& I'm not just talking about a few years ago, lol) to see how how slippery the ice really is.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Unlike Hersh, I think Alissa will medal at worlds.

I think everybody in US is rooting for Alissa, including Hersh, and including a lot of fans from other countries. The thing is that nobody wants this bubble to break. So keep talking about Czisny's inconsistency, deep down, wishing the miracle.

I think Czisny has a chance to medal depends on which Czisny is going to be showing at the worlds.

One thing that I like about Hersh is that he treats figure skating as a genuine sport. If this includes making harsh comments about the athletes when they screw up and not mincing words when it comes to analysis and predictions, so be it.

That's one of the reason I like Hersh too. I think Hersh always says the truth, though a lot of times in snarky, harsh ways. But I don't mind. I always liked him, like the way I liked Dick Button.

If Abbott and or Rippon skate lights out at 4CC is it possible that USFSA will remove one or both of the new boys from the World team?

Not a chance.

But it will make a huge statement for Abbott and Rippon and give a loud ban on USFSA's way of selecting world team.

I agree with PangTongfan, It'll be foolish for Lysacek and Weir come back. If they are smart enough, they won't.

 

[Nadine]

I think everybody in US is rooting for Alissa, including Hersh, and including a lot of fans from other countries. The thing is that nobody wants this bubble to break. So keep talking about Czisny's inconsistency, deep down, wishing the miracle.


But it will make a huge statement for Abbott and Rippon and give a loud ban on USFSA's way of selecting world team.

I'm not rooting for her, nor against her (lol, though last week I was! ), I just don't like her skating, period. If she wins a medal for the USA maybe my mind will mellow a bit towards her, but all's I want is for her & Rachael to earn 3 spots back next year. Then again maybe it's better if they don't, it will just make it that much more exciting to see who's the hungriest to earn 1 of 2 trips to Worlds. C'est la vie, let them cake!

And as an American, I have to say I love how the Team for Worlds is selected via placement at U.S. Nationals, as it should be. :thumbsup: If you didn't earn your place on the team by placing 1, 2, 3 at Nationals, tough luck, you knew the deal, so stop whining like a crybaby, boo hoo, though I have to admit I haven't heard one peep out of those that didn't make it, rather it's the fans that are bawling, not all, just the poor sports.