How can Kozuka compete with Chan On PCS?

[Boeing787]

Believe it or not, pcs does have soemthing to do with a skater's reputation. Take Patrick's tango sp for example. In 2009 worlds, he did a near perfect job, but only earned a PCS of less than 37, which was less than what an erring Joubert made. One year later, the almost identical performance earned him a pcs of 40+ in the 2010 worlds.

If Kozuka continues to perform well his PCS will go up just as Patrick's does.

 

[BlackAxel]

I am a firm believer that a skater's reputation and consistency play a huge part in their PCS. Take a look at Takahashi last season who started off with good PCS that soon began to dwindle up to Worlds due to his lack on constitency. If my memory serves me right, Kozuka's PCS steadly increased as well over last season especially after his tremendous effort in the LP of TEB ... Do I think he was underscored at Worlds '11 in his perfect LP, heck yes! And to be scored 10 points lower than Chan in the PCS department. Hmmm, no I definitely do not agree that the gap should have been that significant.

As of now, Chan will continue to score ridiculously high PCS over the rest of the field regardless if he falls or not. Without a doubt, I believe Kozuka has the skating basics and skills to match Chan, just take a look at his "Inner Urge" SP and see the intricate and fast transitions and footwork. Kozuka just needs to relate more to the audience and the judges and he needs to develop consistency with the quad. With the soundtrack of Nausicaa at hand, Kozuka has the opportunity to create some magic on the ice and help to boost his contention for gold at Sochi.

 

[skatinginbc]

A lot of people who have actually seen Chan and Kozuka's short program actually think Kozuka DOES have harder choregraphy/transitions in his short.

That's a new discovery for a layman like me. I always presumed Kozuka's programs were easier than Chan's in terms of skating skills, transitions and all that. I have even read comments about his program(s) containing nothing but jumps. I don't know how to skate, so at this moment I cannot take your statement as truth. If it is indeed true, I hope more posters would point out such fact to clear our (non-skaters') mind.

I noticed that Kozuka had some footwork leading to his jumps in the LP. Are they easier than Chan's, whose program is often praised as a giant footwork in its entirety?

I have heard people describe Kozuka as a "skater's skater". Why isn't a skater's skater automatically a "judge's skater"? Aren't judges former skaters (or at least know how to skate) as well? Is it so hard for a skater's skater to skate the way the judges would appreciate?

 

[mskater93]

A skater's skater is one that other skaters admire because they are quiet on their blades and everything looks easy, even if it isn't. That tag has nothing to do with a skater's ability to project or command the ice. Command is something the judges look for. Judges want to be almost caught up in the moment to give big CH and IN marks.

 

[treeloving]

I am a firm believer that a skater's reputation and consistency play a huge part in their PCS.

I couldn't agree more, I think Chan has better posture and is less sloppy than Kozuka, but Kozuka should at least receive much closer skating skills to Chan. Not like 1 point apart like it seems to be now.

This is not only applied to Chan vs. Kozuka. but Artur Gachinski case as well, his PSC from 2011 world is so much different from junior world 2010. But is he improve that much? I don't think so.... I think his PCS raised so high because he is only Russia men right now who has as shot for podium. (of course, he is talent!)

Anyway, I would really love to see Chan live, I watched Kozuka live before and he is fantastic.

I have even read comments about his program(s) containing nothing but jumps.

That comment you read doesn't have to be true, right?

How can you say Kozuka is much sperior in the PCS department? At least the judges are not giving much credit to the "world silver".

That what I'm thinking as well, why judge seem to put him down compare to other world silver. But I don't think Yuzuru has anything to do with it.

 

[Dragonlady]

I couldn't agree more, I think Chan has better posture and is less sloppy than Kozuka, but Kozuka should at least receive much closer skating skills to Chan. Not like 1 point apart like it seems to be now.

I think that that gap is very much do to Chan's speed, flow and command of the ice. Kozuka is nowhere near as fast as Chan and doesn't command the ice with his power. Speed makes everything more difficult.

 

[jettasian]

Not sure about Chan's SP, because he already milked it for all it's worth last year at Worlds, maybe a rechoreograph?

My guess would be 90% the same, slightly change in some areas to increase its difficulty? Can Chan put 2 quads and no Axel in the short or Axel is a requirement?

Of Chan's five skates last season, his Nationals performance was the best, and it had the highest score (and while you can't compare scores from national events, if he had skated like that internationally, I think that would be his highest scoring LP anyway).

Though people like to think national scores are often inflated, Chan's national score was very close to world. His LP got 192 at National and 185 at World with a step out of the 3A landing. So all the judges pretty much agree where Chan's level's at.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Kozuka can clearly compete with Chan in the PCS department but it's going to be really difficult for him to ever match or even surpass him in any category of the PCS (scorewise).

We have seen him skate a technically superior LP at the last Worlds (TES wise, of course), yet his PCS trailed Chan's by almost 10 points.

What he needs to do, is to work on his reputation. Two things are of paramount importance if he ever wants to catch up on Chan:

1. He needs to be really really consistent on his performances for about 1 or 2 years. Whilst being absolutely clean, he needs his TES to be higher than Chan's consistently and he might need to include more difficult content. That's going to be difficult with his success rate on quads alone. And Chan's content is so difficult already that it can't realistically be bettered without including 3 quads or something like that.

2. He needs to be the clear Japanese number one skater. It really hurts internationally, if you are from a country with a very strong competition. The judges have perceived Kozuka for some time now as Japanese number 2 or 3. He may have surpassed Oda by now, but with Takahashi and up and coming Hanyu, it's very difficult to be convincingly dominant.

I agree with you on a lot accounts. I can't deny, in fact believe, that reputation is at work in PCS.

What Chan has done to earn his good reputation is to continuously improving his TES. On top of his extraordinary SS and TR, I don't see him lay back and rest on PE, IN, and CH he've gotten. He has progressed on them in an astonishingly fast way. The improvements were so dramatic like we've seen last year. From the very first debute of his quad in both SP and LP in the first GP event to becoming the most consistant quad jumper in the world with 3 quads in every competition in just one season. Yet kept his superior SS, TR, and perfected PE, IN, and CH at Canadian Nationals.

I'd think that, generally speaking, Chan's good reputation is earned by him through his hardwork and his extraordinary progress speed rather than bestowed on him undeservingly.

Yet we did not see him resting. He continued to improve on both presentation and technics this year. His this year's new program has a vast improvement on maturity and inner feelings. It is almost sexily attractive I'd say. The music helped on this account too. I don't see how he could not get a huge PCS to reward it.

As of Kozuka's strategy, I think he is trying to go on the same route as Chan has done last year. He ambitiously put quad in both SP and LP in the first GP event. Unsuccessfully maybe, he might succeed in later. We'll wait and see.

On Kozuka's PCS progress this year, I think there are several barriers to him. Like so many of you have already pointed out, he is not a clear Japanese No.1. He might never be a clear Japanese No.1 even though he might sometimes be the No.1. He chose difficult music which would not help him on presentations. Handsome music for sure, but it's a bit beyond figure skating and CoP. If we ever had a base value for the music selection, he might get a bit higher base value on difficulties and get a headstart. But we don't have. On top of these, Kozuka's own presentation skill is yet to improve a lot more.

With what both Chan and Kozuka have gotten this year, I'm with ImaginaryPogue, Kozuka won't catch up Chan this year on PCS.

As to TES, he might. Chan has three quads SP+LP. Kozuka has two quads SP+LP. Chan's seccessful rate on quad is about 90% while Kozuka's is about 20-30%. Chan's seccessful rate on 3A probably has to switch around with Kozuka. If Kozuka ever caught Chan mess up his own program technically, Kozuka could win by TES if his PCS is not too far behind at the sametime.

 

[gkelly]

Can Chan put 2 quads and no Axel in the short or Axel is a requirement?

Axel (of some sort) has always been a requirement in the short program ever since 1973. It's one of the few constants.

The current jump requirements for the senior men's short program are:
*double or triple axel
*solo triple or quadruple jump preceded by steps or other skating move
*combination of double and triple, triple and triple, double and quadruple, or quadruple and triple jump

It's explicitly not allowed to do the same jump in more than one of the jump elements in the short program. It is allowed to do 3T+3T or 3Lo+3Lo as the jump combo.

Only as of last year, IIRC, has it been allowed to do two (different) quads for the solo jump and jump combination in the short program. As far as I know Kevin Reynolds is the only skater who has made use of that opportunity. For the first several years that quads were allowed in either the solo jump or jump combo, the skater had to choose one or the other element, even if he had two different quads in his repertoire.

 

[jettasian]

Thanks.
I think Chan may have a disadvantage in the Short since it's an old program and he has skated so well last world, it's really hard to top that. I think he will add some difficulties to maximize the score. Can he do one axel, one quad combo and solo quad?

 

[Violet Bliss]

Thanks.
I think Chan may have a disadvantage in the Short since it's an old program and he has skated so well last world, it's really hard to top that. I think he will add some difficulties to maximize the score. Can he do one axel, one quad combo and solo quad?

Only if the 2 quads are different. His 4S is not ready yet but is planned for the LP late in the season.

 

[jettasian]

So with this new LP, if he skates both programs perfectly, do you think he can break his own record? I think it's achievable.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Chan could easily add more intricating footworks into the existing short program in order to make it more appealing against Kozuka's new SP. The rest of his programs, I think, are competitive enough.

So with this new LP, if he skates both programs perfectly, do you think he can break his own record? I think it's achievable.

I'm expecting 10s in CH on top of perfect PE and IN this year.

But despite all things said, you can't relax, as Chan is not relaxing. Or other skaters will catch up.

 

[Boeing787]

If Patrick can repeat what he did in last worlds, he is guaranteed another wolrd title. I doubt if he can.
He doesn't even need to improve anything in the SP, it's good enough already.

If I were Patrick, I'd worry about the 3A more than the 4S. The former is a required element, the latter is icing on the cake.

 

[gkelly]

Can he do one axel, one quad combo and solo quad?

As of last year he's allowed to, if he can do two different quads.

Whether he is physically capable of doing that is another question.

 

[Boeing787]

Anyone?!

He can't compete with this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Kb3bkj3w-g&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL406314D43D84FA74

Seriously, I don't really like Patrick Chan's Ex programs I've seen so far. But he's got pretty good competition programs.

Watch this Patrick's ex progam you might change your mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrik3rJG3q8&feature=related

I watched both Kozuka's and Abott's ex programs and didn't think they had done a better job than Patrick did in this one. In addition, skating an ex program is very different from skating a competition program. A competition program is more complicated, faster pace, thus more demanding. And one has to be able to deliver under pressure. Patrick does better than both of them in this department. That's why he has higher PCS, I guess.

 

[skatinginbc]

Based on what I read from the previous posts, here is my conclusion (or summary):

Kozuka should work on:

1. Command on Ice: more bravado, skating big, more projection into the audience, looking up and out—the first and foremost thing he must improve.
2. Reputation and Consistency: This is a hard one. Keep working hard, I guess.
3. Speed and flow: Although only Dragonlady mentioned speed and flow, I would assume her observation to be true. From my (a layperson’s) point of view, Chan’s difficult transitions did not take away his speed and flow, but Kozuka’s seemed to have stifled them.
4. Posture: Some of his postures looked unfinished and sloppy.
5. Dancing ability: It’s getting better nonetheless. The first showing at Japan Open was a disaster, while his SA performance was a big step forward (but strangely it was not reflected in his score).

And I have also concluded: Kozuka's programs are as difficult as Chan's, if not more difficult than Chan's, in terms of their demands for skating skills, transitions and so on (not counting jumps of course). That doesn't mean Kozuka should automatically get a comparable score. It still largely depends on his execution and performance. It's like a concerto competition. One who plays Chopin's Piano Concerto No. 2 in F minor does not always get a higher score than one who plays the easier Beethoven's No. 3 in C minor. In a high level piano competition, it is the execution and performance (interpretation of the music) that count the most. When reaching to a certain level, I found the "easier" piece (like some of Mozart's) paradoxically requires higher skills to execute it well. And I guess it applies to skating as well.

By the way, I think Kozuka's humility, which was the main reason I became a big fan of his, might have contributed to his relative lack of "command on ice". I hate to give him this suggestion but it works: Start thinking of yourself as the best without peers, the god that deserves worship. Yes, it sounds arrogant, but it works.

 

[let`s talk]

So with this new LP, if he skates both programs perfectly, do you think he can break his own record? I think it's achievable.

You just think? That's funny. Because I am 100% sure that judges will break his "records", even if he falls 6 times.

Watch this Patrick's ex progam you might change your mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrik3rJG3q8&feature=related

I saw it live on Japan Open. The program was rediculously performed and didn't appeal to the audience at all. :disapp:

 

[Bluebonnet]

Watch this Patrick's ex progam you might change your mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrik3rJG3q8&feature=related

I watched both Kozuka's and Abott's ex programs and didn't think they had done a better job than Patrick did in this one.

To be honest, of all three ex programs, I love Jeremy's the best. But Jeremy's ex number from the following season was a let-down:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FnXEjHwsEw

I understand that it was the first program he himself choreographed alone. Cute, maybe. But too cute to make me appreciate it.

Back to Patrick Chan. The first and foremost which made me dislike this program was the costume. Why did he have to wear a shiny pants?! It made him look ..."heavier", just like it has made Lambiel look heavier in his: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F893u_lTNVw

Chan’s difficult transitions did not take away his speed and flow, but Kozuka’s seemed to have stifled them.

I think this is a great observation!

 

[Boeing787]

I saw it live on Japan Open. The program was rediculously performed and didn't appeal to the audience at all. :disapp:

He didn't have a good day evidently. I saw it on youtube and agree with you.