How can Kozuka compete with Chan On PCS?

[Dragonlady]

I don't really care how the judges scored him, that means very little in terms of objectively analyzing the performances. Judges give higher scores to skaters with more reputation and momentum, plain and simple. PCS also vary considerably from event to event.

[snip]

I know the rules and guidelines quite well. Stop trying to act as if you have a better understand of figure skating.

In order to have a reasonable discussion, you have to have a frame of reference. And that frame of reference is not "Skating according to BOP's criteria", it's the ISU technical handbook. It has a search feature so you can find things relatively easily. Quite frankly, I don't care what you think judging should be. I care about what it is. I may not like the rules or the way certain things are scored, but that won't change outcomes or the way skating is judged.

If you know the rules, then apply them to your posts. You keep insisting things are wrong, but the rules say otherwise and until the rules are changed, we deal with things the way they are, not the things the way we think they should be.

You say the judges don't like the rules, but I know of no active ISU judges who are publically speaking out against the judging system. Neither the ISU nor their federations would allow it. They have been some judges who have spoken out against some things like block judging, but only after they've retired.

 

[gkelly]

Judges give higher scores to skaters with more reputation and momentum, plain and simple. PCS also vary considerably from event to event.

But how much of that is because skaters who deservedly earn higher scores develop more reputation and momentum as a result?

My take is that it works both ways.

First, and primarily, it works the way it's supposed to -- skaters skate, and judges evaluate that skating according to the existing rules and guidelines to the best of their ability.

Some judges have better ability than others. Some may be equally competent but differ on which criteria they pay the most attention to, or in how generous or strict they are in assigning marks, or in how wide a range of numbers they use to reflect the differences they see between skaters (or between components in the.

All of the above is competent, honest judging that reflects some unavoidable variance between judges and between competitions because of the subjective nature of assigning a finite amount of digital scores to a much larger amount qualitative evaluations of analog criteria.

And then you also get judging that doesn't work exactly the way it's supposed to.

Less experienced/less confident judges may still be adjusting their understanding of the rules and standards from one event to the next. Some of that adjustment process might involve bringing their evaluations closer in line with the way that more established judges have scored the same skaters in the past -- a form of reputation judging.

These judges are trying to bring their own scores in line with the consensus of what the judging community as a whole thinks of these skaters' performances. It might be motivated purely by a desire to learn the standards and to become a better judge, or purely by a desire to make sure their scores don't fall outside the "corridor" often enough that they will lose judging privileges, or a combination of the above.

All judges will, unconsciously, see what they expect to see. For a skater who scored well in the past, they will expect to see skating that deserves high scores. So all else being equal, they will tend to give higher scores to a skater with a past history of good results than to one with less of a positive reputation -- another form of reputation judging.

International judges and other officials talk up the good qualities of their home country skaters, influencing other countries' judges' perceptions of the skaters' reputation and the other judges' ability to recognize the skater's very real strong points (and perhaps ignore their weak points) -- a form of political influence on judging.

Senior officials including referees may make comments about the kinds of skating the ISU wants to see rewarded or the kind of results (e.g., by nationality or by style of skating) that would be "good for the sport" in the eyes of the public and potential sponsors. Judges may take (and the officials may or may not intend) those comments as suggestions about which specific skaters they're expected to score generously -- another form of political influence on judging.

And sometimes international judges may deliberately make an effort to overscore their own skaters or to make deals with other judges -- i.e., outright cheating.

We can't get inside the judges' heads, and in most cases we have no way of knowing exactly what is being said in the judges' room or in other conversations among officials.

So how can we tell how much of the variances in PCS (including differences between the panels' scores and our own personal opinions of the skating) are attributable to natural variations in honest judging, how much are attributable to reputation effects or politics, and how much to actual cheating?

 

[Blades of Passion]

In order to have a reasonable discussion, you have to have a frame of reference. And that frame of reference is not "Skating according to BOP's criteria", it's the ISU technical handbook. It has a search feature so you can find things relatively easily. Quite frankly, I don't care what you think judging should be. I care about what it is. I may not like the rules or the way certain things are scored, but that won't change outcomes or the way skating is judged.

Once again, I know the rules perfectly well. My opinion of the PCS a skater should receive is exactly within the rules of the system. The only argument you ever make is "so and so skater received higher points at this competition, so clearly they were better." The point of this discussion is that the scores a skater receives ultimately mean very little in terms of judging the programs objectively. And by that, I mean objectively within the exact rules too. You seem to take the view of judges being infallible.

For example, I thoroughly explained why I think Lysacek's 2006 program was better than his 2010 Program. The only argument and examples you've put forth to defend your opinion are "Nope, his 2010 program was better because it received higher scores." This shows absolutely no cognitive reasoning on your part at all.

I know of no active ISU judges who are publically speaking out against the judging system.

Almost none of them understand the exact mathematical balancing that needs to take place for the system to be more sound. Aside from this glaring problem, people don't care enough and/or don't want to give up the rewards that come along with being a judge.

So how can we tell how much of the variances in PCS (including differences between the panels' scores and our own personal opinions of the skating) are attributable to natural variations in honest judging, how much are attributable to reputation effects or politics, and how much to actual cheating?

Anonymous judges don't help matters either.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Calling people names like you love doing definitely provokes readers into an emotional response and therefore by your own logics fits the definition of trolling. Join the club!

Thanks for the invitation and hospitality. But I'm not worthy.

 

[Dragonlady]

Almost none of them understand the exact mathematical balancing that needs to take place for the system to be more sound. Aside from this glaring problem, people don't care enough and/or don't want to give up the rewards that come along with being a judge.

Judges spend just as many years training and judging to become ISU judges as skaters spend becoming ISU Champions. It's a volunteer job for which they receive no pay and often, little thanks. And the penalty for speaking out against the ISU or its juding system is an end to their judging career. Everyone who has tried to effect reform in the ISU by speaking out publically, is gone. All of the whistleblowers from SLC failed in their bids for re-election to the Council, all of the judges who testified at the ISU hearing that they had been pressured in the past but had resisted, were reprimanded and threatened with firing. The only way to effect change in the ISU is from the inside and getting yourself fired won't help.

Exactly what rewards do you think these judges get?

 

[Violet Bliss]

Yuks, it only just occurred to and causes me concern that the remification of Kozuka getting the SA bronze may mean we might not see Kozuka vs Chan in the GPF, which would be a travesty. His next fight is in NHK with Takahashi and only one can win, leaving the other with a slim chance of making it to the GPF. KVDP will not be there but he played spoiler by taking silver at SA. Maybe this can be discussed in a prediction thread but right now the thought of not having both Kozuka and Takahashi in the Final is disconcerting. Oda's chances look good. The front runners are Chan and Brezina, with Fernadez a high possibility. And then there are Gachinski, Hanyu and Abbott. But Kozuka has to make it, right?

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Brezina has Chan, Oda, Joubert and Amodio at TEB. Fourth place isn't unimaginable. Unless he chose CoR as his contributing event along with SA. If he did, then yes - he's a favourite.

 

[skatinginbc]

And the penalty for speaking out against the ISU or its juding system is an end to their judging career. Everyone who has tried to effect reform in the ISU by speaking out publically, is gone. All of the whistleblowers from SLC failed in their bids for re-election to the Council, all of the judges who testified at the ISU hearing that they had been pressured in the past but had resisted, were reprimanded and threatened with firing. The only way to effect change in the ISU is from the inside and getting yourself fired won't help.

That bad behind the scene? Sounds disgusting and scandalous to me. I have to think it through if I am supporting the right sport...Nay, too tired to think...Let me just close my eyes awhile pretending the sky is still blue and the sun is still bright.

 

[let`s talk]

Thanks for the invitation and hospitality. But I'm not worthy.

You ARE! You are much worthier than anyone, with a really good experience that you can share.:thumbsup:

 

[jettasian]

Wow, BOP, I know Kozuka is good, one of the best in fact, but he is where he is today. Not bad at all. That was a loooong post filled with wouldas, couldas, shouldas, and a complete reconstruction of skating history. I know it most certainly happened as you described in one of the countless universes, each born with each possible decision ever made and each possible outcome ever happened. But AFAIK, that series of events didn't take place in this universe.

Nonetheless, Kozuka is in a very nice place today on his own life's path.

That is an understatement. It's just a fantasy some have. If the Olympic was in 2011 instead, Chan would have won. If Buttle was born a few years younger, he could have won too. Yeah, something like that.

 

[jettasian]

Calling people names like you love doing definitely provokes readers into an emotional response and therefore by your own logics fits the definition of trolling. Join the club!

So you agree that you are in that club then? LOL

 

[Dragonlady]

More often than not, yes (in the cases I know of).

How would you know of such cases? The hearings are private and held in Europe. Details are not published. You would need to know someone on the disciplinary committee to find out what went on or a judge who was disciplined.

 

[lavender]

Also, since judges "aren't paid" ( )...what do they have to lose anyway? If one thinks about it logically, the benefit of being a judge is the power of your opinion having direct influence. Letting someone else dictate your opinion flies in the face of what you are actually supposed to be doing. If your judging creates competition results that you find more agreeable, then you have created a change for the better within the sport. If you only act as a sheep, then you will not change anything.

I like this. This is why results don't mean that much for me. I pretty much shrugs at a lot of results.

 

[Dragonlady]

Posted by Blades of Passion
Also, since judges "aren't paid" ( )...what do they have to lose anyway? If one thinks about it logically, the benefit of being a judge is the power of your opinion having direct influence. Letting someone else dictate your opinion flies in the face of what you are actually supposed to be doing. If your judging creates competition results that you find more agreeable, then you have created a change for the better within the sport. If you only act as a sheep, then you will not change anything.

Your logic is flawed. The purpose of being a judge is not the power of your opinion. In fact, the IJS does everything possible to strip "opinion" out of the process by setting out specific criteria to be considered in various marks. Judges are to score within as narrow as possible criteria, with strict penalties for deviating outside of the norm.

In order to have influence on the sport of figure skating, you must be either on the ISU Council or one of the Technical Committees. Those are the people who determine the direction of the sport and what is to be valued. If Speedy had his way, he would come up with a system that eliminated subjective judging altogether. Since that's impossible, he is doing the next best thing to it, by calling the judges to task when they don't use the system as intended. At one point, David Dore was issuing statements that the judges were not using PCS properly and they would be dealing with that in the off-season.

Judges are people who spent years in cold rinks doing childrens' tests and small club comps, working up to Sectional then National level and ultimately, if they're considered good enough, ISU judges. They spend their weekends volunteering at rinks for their federations, and use precious vacation time to attend and judge at competitions. Appointments are made at the whim of the national federations, so you must also be politically connected to get the appointment, in other words, you can't have p*ssed off anyone at the federation head office. And of course you must continue to remain in the good graces of the head of your federation if you expect to continue to judge.

But to suggest that a judge is a person with the power to influence figure skating - that dog won't hunt.

 

[doubleflutz]

Yeah I am not from Japan or anything but before the 2010 NHK Trophy I read how the president of the federation was saying how it was important that all the men were trying quads. That seemed to be long running thing. Since Ito and her 3A eally. Every country has its own skating culture and the importance of things varies.

Just chiming in to say that actually, I think it goes back to before Midori. Minoru Sano was actually a lovely skater all-around, but he was renowned first and foremost and won his world bronze (in 77, I think?) because of his amazing jumping. I totally agree, though, the Japanese absolutely, positively do value jumps a great deal in their skating culture, both at the federation/elite level and more casual skating fans. They care a lot more about the mechanics of jump technique than most Western fans, and they appreciate skaters with strong jumping abilities. There was a Japanese documentary about the quad that featured Joubert, for example, and Plushenko is really really popular there because of his jumps. Of course Japanese skaters/officials/fans value and recognize other things, especially impressive technical abilities (Lambiel and Ruh's spinning, ladies with really good extension/flexibility), but it's kind of like basic skating skills and Canadians. It's just a really big deal for them, and skaters who are very good jumpers will usually have a Japanese fan club, even if they're not all that good at anything else. Japanese fans make YouTube video montages of Kevin Reynolds, for example, and Kevin van der Perren features in some fan-drawn comics. Some of them are pretty cute!

 

[dorispulaski]

Clearly, Brandon Mroz is going to have a Japanese fan club then!

And it's got to help that he will be going to NHK this year.

 

[Blades of Passion]

It's a volunteer job for which they receive no pay and often, little thanks. And the penalty for speaking out against the ISU or its juding system is an end to their judging career. Everyone who has tried to effect reform in the ISU by speaking out publically, is gone.

I didn't say anything about speaking out publically, nor does this have anything to do with the point I made of people not understanding the precise mathematically balances needed for CoP to function properly.

However, given what little value you place on the role of being a skating judge, then you should logically be able to comprehend why it shouldn't be very difficult for them to speak out. After all, what do they have to lose since it's such a "worthless" job?

Exactly what rewards do you think these judges get?

Prestige, influence, and potential under-the-table benefits. I couldn't tell you the exact average monetary benefit gained via gifts and free services and bribes, but then I'm sure you couldn't tell me the exact amount a congressional member benefits from in this way either. Instead, we'll all just feign ignorance because that makes the World so much easier for us. YAY!

How would you know of such cases? The hearings are private and held in Europe. Details are not published. You would need to know someone on the disciplinary committee to find out what went on or a judge who was disciplined.

You make it sound as if such a thing (the last sentence you wrote) is impossible. Apparently all of these people live in an alternate dimension and only exist within this World at skating competitions and then fade away when the competition has ended.

Aside from that, people talk to other people. You should know this since you seemingly devote your life to gossip.

Your logic is flawed. The purpose of being a judge is not the power of your opinion.

LMAO, I would be embarrassed if I followed the accusation "flawed logic" with such an inane statement. The purpose of being a judge is most certainly the power of your opinion. If this were not the purpose of being a judge, given that we play along with the idea of judges never receiving perks, then why would ANYONE want to be a judge? Furthermore, why would judges even exist if that were not their role in society?

But to suggest that a judge is a person with the power to influence figure skating - that dog won't hunt.

Wrong. Skaters strive to design their programs and competition strategies around what has done well in the (recent) past and the judges' scores have a large influence on competition results. When lackluster programs filled with tons of transitions end up getting high PCS across the board, it becomes the status quo that skaters build their performances towards. When sluggish spins with bad positions that have nothing to do with the music receive more points than beautiful lower-level spins that interpret the music, everyone becomes obsessed with maximizing their levels regardless of how much it hurts the program. When skaters perform all three of their jump elements back-to-back-to-back in the Short Program and don't get marked down for having a poorly balanced program, everyone starts doing it.

These ideas you have about the purpose of a judge and the influence they hold are mind-bogglingly deranged.

 

[prettykeys]

Well. I agree that BoP has always stated his opinions in his "ideal" rather than in the context of the current judging system and how it rewards what. There is always a difference between "programs should be scored in this manner", "this is what the rules currently dictate" and "this is how the current rules should be applied".

I agree that judges should have more freedom to assert their personal judgments rather than feel pressured to stay within the judging corridor for its own sake...but on the other hand, Dragonlady's view of the situation sounds plausible. Not only is it risky for the judges in case they lose their privilege, part of their selection may be largely based on their "amicability"...so it may be a difficult situation for them even if they have the opportunity, to, for example, give a highly-regarded skater poor Transition or Choreo/Interpretation marks, etc.

 

[Mathman]

Clearly, Brandon Mroz is going to have a Japanese fan club then!

And it's got to help that he will be going to NHK this year.

:thumbsup:

 

[Dragonlady]

Well. I agree that BoP has always stated his opinions in his "ideal" rather than in the context of the current judging system and how it rewards what. There is always a difference between "programs should be scored in this manner", "this is what the rules currently dictate" and "this is how the current rules should be applied".

The problem them becomes that his ideal is most certainly not my ideal and it's most unhelpful to discussions of competitive figure skating to start declaring that something is "wrong" and shouldn't have won, when it is most certainly not wrong within the context of the current rules.

As for gossip, that's the life blood of any skating board. Reports of partner changes, coaching changes, program changes, music choices, and international assignments show up on the internet before they show up in the popular press or on the networks. Posters find themselves quoted in newspapers and on television networks time and time again, usually without attribution, but those of us who have been on the boards for years know who first came up with the stuff.

I'd much rather find out that Voloszar & Trankov are planning to scrap their SP after the GP because they aren't happy with the music or the choreography than a 10 paragraph dissertation on how BOP would improve Lori Nichol's choreography for Caroline Kostner. YMMV.