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- Aug 1, 2011
How much will Lipnitskaya's score deflate at Worlds?
- Thread starter koatcue
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- Feb 26, 2014
Really? It's pretty sad for these people.
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- Jan 25, 2013
If Lipnitskaia goes clean, she'll medal, if not win. Her scores will be brought back down to earth. She is a legitimate threat to Mao, so I might even picture her scores being held back.
Her flutzing will be called every time it happens, her PCS will be around 32 for a clean SP and maybe around 67 for a clean LP.
Everyone's scores will be brought down, except Mao's, who would surely get well above 72+ PCS if she skates a FS like in Sochi.
I'm guessing with two clean skates (and flutzes called), Julia's total score would be around 207-ish.
Her flutzing will be called every time it happens, her PCS will be around 32 for a clean SP and maybe around 67 for a clean LP.
Everyone's scores will be brought down, except Mao's, who would surely get well above 72+ PCS if she skates a FS like in Sochi.
I'm guessing with two clean skates (and flutzes called), Julia's total score would be around 207-ish.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Fixed, for obvious reasons.
Also, it's pretty silly to say Sotnikova pulled out of Worlds because she's afraid of competing in another international event. With the momentum of her Sochi win, and the way she's been skating in her past 3 competitions, she would have at least been a favourite for a World medal... and it might be harder for her to even make the World team next season with the up and coming Russians. I mean, it's not like she's going to stop competing altogether, and only skate at Russian competitions here on out.
I don't believe anyone cracked 70 last year for the SP. Clean or not.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Asada did at Four Continents. If marked fairly (as in, with the flutz being called and PCS being appropriate), Lipnitskaia should get just under 70 points for a clean SP.
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- Feb 26, 2014
If Mao skates a FS like in Sochi, her wrong egde and underrotations will be called. Poor GEO's from all the judges as well, like in Sochi, , and in no way she will get well above 72/73 in technical.
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- Feb 17, 2010
No. The edge will be called because her lutz looks wrong edge in real time from any angle. The < won't be because panels have overlooked those very often when she has skated well, particularly in Japan.
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- Feb 17, 2010
I disagree. I don't think she will ever be Yuna consistent but both her and Julia were very impressive holding up at Russian Nats and Euros to secure their spots on the world team. She is probably completely done growing and has already gone through the dip after her successful junior career and knows how to peak at the right time. Being the first ladies OGM from Russia is a huge thing and she'll have the full backing of the federation for skating well enough to bring the grand prize of Sochi to her people.
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- Nov 30, 2013
The 62 I was talking about was PCS for the LP. It depends on how she skates in between elements and the overall composition of the program. Roughly clean, she should receive around 64/65. Skating like at Euros, where more than just being clean it was brilliant, she should receive 2/3 points higher.
For the SP: If skated like at SC or the GPF, 66/67 would be fair. If she skates likes at COR or Euros 68/69 would be fair.
She basically cracked 70, with an edge call on the Lutz at Euros. (69.97) It really does just depend how well everything is skated.
It's interesting to note that the same tech caller thought that only the 3-2 Lutz was wrong at SC out of the three, while thinking that all three were wrong at Euros. So it's possible for someone who is not as strict as Amano to decide when reviewing that the edge had not crossed over at the time of take-off. Each time the skater jumps it's different. I don't know what camera angle the tech caller gets, but when I've checked them, the ones that were called, I was able to see just barely, while the ones that she was given the benefit of the doubt looked like they weren't yet on an inside edge.
That's a moot point though considering that Amano is the tech caller so if there's any doubt, which there is, he'll call it.
The thing that's really bothering my is the 3Flip in the SP. I think with how close she goes to the boards the curve is just to steep, or there's something happening that's not supposed to be. At the GPF, it's fully rotated and solidly landed, but the height is lower than the 3Lutz. At the team event it looks like she's tilted far in the air, and I'm surprised it was landed in retrospect. When she fell she was fatigued so she didn't get the momentum needed to rotate. I hope she can fix that at Worlds. Her 3Salchow and 3Flip seem like they're her problem jumps.
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- Feb 26, 2014
Oh well, I was not talking about score inflation. That's another story.
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- Dec 29, 2011
No way she will get above 72/73 in technical? She had 2 UR calls here (and the one on the 3Lo was nonsense), and still had a BV of already 66+! Her steps and spins GOE alone could get her close to 73 in TES overall. And she already had a 73 in TES when she was skating in the 2. group here in Sochi. If she skates her LP again like she did in Sochi, it will score way more than 73 in TES everywhere in the world. If you were regarding PCS, if Adelina/Yuna score 74+ in their LPs, a clean and well-performing Mao deserves above 70 easily too.
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- Sep 10, 2012
Her 3F at Euros was UR, I could see it in real time (I was there) and then it was easily noticeable in slow-motion, so the score she received there was absolutely unjustified :disapp:
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- May 19, 2011
I'm fairly certain the scores will return to normal for everyone. I think a clean FS from Mao or Carolina will get them 70/71+ in PCS...possibly higher since this is their last competition.
As for Julia, I'm thinking her PCS will descend from the stratosphere and land somewhere around 31/32+ in the SP and 64/65+ in the FS...assuming she's clean. If she makes mistakes I'm sure all of those will drop. No more 70+ in PCS with step-outs and falls.
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- Dec 29, 2013
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She absolutely nailed it in Sochi during the individual FS after falling on it in the SP.
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- May 19, 2011
I think Carolina and Mao would be pretty close. I think Mao was underscored in PCS in both segments in Sochi. If she can skate cleanly I'm sure her scores will receive a boost. Same for Carolina, especially seeing as this is the last time we'll see them at worlds. Send them out with a bang I say...as long as they deserve it.:thumbsup:
For me, it will be interesting to see whether Caro still can beat Mao. Surprisingly, at this quad, (from 2011 season) Caro was not beaten by Mao, when they actually met at the competition, not even a single time. I was deeply moved by Mao's lp at Sochi and truly wish her the very best, but I also think that she may pull Akiko at Sochi... (I mean Akiko had her best ever lp at Japan nationals but not so good skate at Sochi..)
Oh well, for Julia, i think her mark will be slightly higher than hers at GPF, even with a clean skate, considering what happened in 2010 WC right after the Olympics. ISU cannot afford another scandal with a Russian skater. I bet Julia's PCS will hardly break 30 in SP and 65 in LP.
Oh well, for Julia, i think her mark will be slightly higher than hers at GPF, even with a clean skate, considering what happened in 2010 WC right after the Olympics. ISU cannot afford another scandal with a Russian skater. I bet Julia's PCS will hardly break 30 in SP and 65 in LP.
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