Ice Dance OGM Contenders 2018

[Anyasnake]

Since all the other disciplines have this thread

I think that more than qualities, levels, etc, NO ONE can afford the tiniest of mistakes to stay in the race. Personally it's the event I'm looking foward the most. Will the Canadians get that 2nd Gold ? Will the French snatch the gold away ? Will an american or another canadian team surprise us ? Italy and Russia are in the mix too...

What do you all think ?

 

[tennisguy]

At this point it is a clear two way race - Virtue/Moir & Papdakis/Cizeron - everyone else is competing for bronze.

 

[NicoleJ96B]

I think you're looking at 8 teams with realistic medal chances Virtue/Moir, Papadakis/Cizeron for Gold, ShibsSibs, Weaver/Poje for Silver/Bronze, and Bobrova/Soloviev just behind for Bronze with Chock/Bates, Hubbell/Donohue and Cappellini/Lanotte probably capable of a bronze depending. Below, the biggest factors I think can PROHIBIT each from making the podium OR placing as high as possible.

Virtue and Moir: Favourites for the Gold. Their Free Dance is going to be the biggest indicator of their plan and ruthlessness for this season. I think if it's even remotely safe or similar to material from Sochi fans are going to be frustrated, but they'll have a killer short dance to rely on. I think they need to go the Carmen route and destroy expectations, and Scott needs to work on his composure.

Papadakis and Cizeron: Similarly, I think P/C are going to find the FD difficult. If it's similar to the past three seasons and too safe, judges won't penalise them but aren't going to be looking for increase their marks wherever possible. They will struggle to build an identifiable narrative if they play it too safe, and combined with their distasteful comments about the SD, could find themselves being pushed by the next three teams.

Shibutani/Shibutani: Alex and Maia are lucky to have won the Bronze at Worlds, because I think the biggest obstacle for them this season is the two other American teams. I think going ColdPlay for the FD was a smart decision, but they'll need to make sure the innovation is their to stand out. They'll need to learn out to skate lights out emotionally come February to not get lost in the shuffle.

Weaver/Poje: Biggest obstacle: A big first impression. Worlds show their technical consistency can keep them in contention (for silver and bronze I would guess) but they can't leave their magic until Olympics or the PCS won't be enough. The programs will have to be distinct and polished from the get-go, and GPF showing also wouldn't hurt.

Bobrova/Soloviev: In a just world, B/S wouldn't be anywhere near making the podium but I have to include them. They do decently internationally and have off-rink assistance. No real obstacles, it just depends on how everyone else performs.

Hubbell/Donohue: Madi and Zach, their own worst enemies. They've got the choreography and and chemistry to win Bronze but have to be consistent. They don't have PCS or GOE bump to help them, will be ruthlessly penalised for any slight mistake.

Cappellini and Lanotte: Anna and Luca could miss GPF for the second year running, and not because of their own faults but due to deeply talented and deep field. They just don't have the excitment or standing to propel past other teams of similar technical abilities. A shame but a Bronze would be huge achievement for them.

Chock and Bates: Lost all the momentum they had for the two years they medalled at Worlds and GPF. The will need a FD that is out of the box and to perform it perfectly all season to jump out of the crowded 3-8 slot.

So interested to here everybody's thoughts as this event is going to be absolutely ruthless, but I will eat my hat if a team outside is group of 8 is standing on the podium in PyeongChang.

In order of likelihood for medalling (regardless of colour) I think the following: V/M, P/C, S/S, W/P, B/S, H/D, C/L and C/B. It feels odd to be placing two time Worlds medallist C/B so low but all their momentum is gone.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

I think the 2018 Worlds following the Olympics can be just as wonky as it was in 2014 or 2006 if V/M aren't there. P/C would be heavy favorites for another world title if V/M are absent. This is assuming the hierarchy from this past season carries over to this coming season.

 

[SarahSynchro]

Oh please please please, it would be a dream come true to have WeaPo on the Olympic podium. :luv17: I think placing 4th at 2017's worlds and winning the free dance at WTT is a step in the right direction.

I would also really like to see them split the ice dance portion of the team event with V/M. :yes:

 

[nocturnalis]

I think you're looking at 8 teams with realistic medal chances Virtue/Moir, Papadakis/Cizeron for Gold, ShibsSibs, Weaver/Poje for Silver/Bronze, and Bobrova/Soloviev just behind for Bronze with Chock/Bates, Hubbell/Donohue and Cappellini/Lanotte probably capable of a bronze depending. Below, the biggest factors I think can PROHIBIT each from making the podium OR placing as high as possible.

Virtue and Moir: Favourites for the Gold. Their Free Dance is going to be the biggest indicator of their plan and ruthlessness for this season. I think if it's even remotely safe or similar to material from Sochi fans are going to be frustrated, but they'll have a killer short dance to rely on. I think they need to go the Carmen route and destroy expectations, and Scott needs to work on his composure.

Papadakis and Cizeron: Similarly, I think P/C are going to find the FD difficult. If it's similar to the past three seasons and too safe, judges won't penalise them but aren't going to be looking for increase their marks wherever possible. They will struggle to build an identifiable narrative if they play it too safe, and combined with their distasteful comments about the SD, could find themselves being pushed by the next three teams.

Shibutani/Shibutani: Alex and Maia are lucky to have won the Bronze at Worlds, because I think the biggest obstacle for them this season is the two other American teams. I think going ColdPlay for the FD was a smart decision, but they'll need to make sure the innovation is their to stand out. They'll need to learn out to skate lights out emotionally come February to not get lost in the shuffle.

Weaver/Poje: Biggest obstacle: A big first impression. Worlds show their technical consistency can keep them in contention (for silver and bronze I would guess) but they can't leave their magic until Olympics or the PCS won't be enough. The programs will have to be distinct and polished from the get-go, and GPF showing also wouldn't hurt.

Bobrova/Soloviev: In a just world, B/S wouldn't be anywhere near making the podium but I have to include them. They do decently internationally and have off-rink assistance. No real obstacles, it just depends on how everyone else performs.

Hubbell/Donohue: Madi and Zach, their own worst enemies. They've got the choreography and and chemistry to win Bronze but have to be consistent. They don't have PCS or GOE bump to help them, will be ruthlessly penalised for any slight mistake.

Cappellini and Lanotte: Anna and Luca could miss GPF for the second year running, and not because of their own faults but due to deeply talented and deep field. They just don't have the excitment or standing to propel past other teams of similar technical abilities. A shame but a Bronze would be huge achievement for them.

Chock and Bates: Lost all the momentum they had for the two years they medalled at Worlds and GPF. The will need a FD that is out of the box and to perform it perfectly all season to jump out of the crowded 3-8 slot.

So interested to here everybody's thoughts as this event is going to be absolutely ruthless, but I will eat my hat if a team outside is group of 8 is standing on the podium in PyeongChang.

In order of likelihood for medalling (regardless of colour) I think the following: V/M, P/C, S/S, W/P, B/S, H/D, C/L and C/B. It feels odd to be placing two time Worlds medallist C/B so low but all their momentum is gone.

I think the twizzle issue is less composure and the entry into it. In the beginning of the season, there was less problems with it. I think the difficult entry was too difficult and it should have been fixed far before Worlds.

 

[Snow63]

Bobrova/Soloviev: In a just world, B/S wouldn't be anywhere near making the podium but I have to include them. They do decently internationally and have off-rink assistance. No real obstacles, it just depends on how everyone else performs.

In your world, maybe. It's strange that you think that the team with stronger technique than most of the teams you mentioned 'wouldn't be anywhere near making the podium'. They have lost tons of momentum and time after Sochi 2014, and still they keep climbing up the ranks, they have won SD at last Euros with lights out skate and won deserved small bronze medal at last Worlds with not their best FD. You can say it's 'off-rink assistance', I say it's talent and skill :confused2:

In a just world they would not have skipped three Worlds championships in a row because of injuries and stupid unfair doping accusation, which was lifted too late.

Edit: I'm 99% sure that Tessa and Scott will win OGM this time. My bets for bronze are on the Shibs or Hubbel/Donohue. Hope that all will stay healthy and skate their best, though. There will be a lot of pressure.

 

[SnowWhite]

My preference would be V/M winning, P/C second and either W/P or H/D third, though that may change depending on whose programs I like the best. I think that gold and silver going to V/M and P/C in either order is pretty likely (though, yes ice is slippery, etc.). Then I agree that all of S/S, C/B, H/D, W/P, B/S and C/L are possibilities for bronze.

 

[maya1985]

Papadakis and Cizeron: Similarly, I think P/C are going to find the FD difficult. If it's similar to the past three seasons and too safe, judges won't penalise them but aren't going to be looking for increase their marks wherever possible. They will struggle to build an identifiable narrative if they play it too safe, and combined with their distasteful comments about the SD, could find themselves being pushed by the next three teams.

A beautiful year for them:sarcasm:: the short dance is already bad and their free dance is the same as last year. We have not seen anything yet ...

I think (but this is absolutely not what I want): V/M, P/C, S/S .... I would like P/C, V/M, H/D

 

[MelDee]

A beautiful year for them:sarcasm:: the short dance is already bad and their free dance is the same as last year. We have not seen anything yet ...

I think (but this is absolutely not what I want): V/M, P/C, S/S .... I would like P/C, V/M, H/D

Lol I also thought that particular prediction was kinda biased Yup, P/C who suck at SDs and their Latin SD is gonna be trash based on that super contextual interview, plus this FD record-holding team is now gonna struggle even through the FD smh I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they ended up having one of the best, if not the best, SDs of all season. I'm not all that concerned about their FD, they seemed to have an idea about what they wanted to do already coming off of Worlds, and as they say - making things too safe is not fun for anyone, hence I don't think they'll play it THAT safe. Obviously all these predictions are useless now, we just have to wait to actually see the programs, then we can make some judgment.

I'd also like the podium to be P/C, V/M and H/D :luv17: P/C are carrying a huge momentum with them from Worlds, they need to use it to their advantage at their GP assignments and the GPF. The way I see it, by the GPF we'll be able to tell who the OGM will go to - it's also P/C's last chance to show the judges that they're capable of beating V/M. We'll see how they fare.

 

[coldblueeyes]

In your world, maybe. It's strange that you think that the team with stronger technique than most of the teams you mentioned 'wouldn't be anywhere near making the podium'. They have lost tons of momentum and time after Sochi 2014, and still they keep climbing up the ranks, they have won SD at last Euros with lights out skate and won deserved small bronze medal at last Worlds with not their best FD. You can say it's 'off-rink assistance', I say it's talent and skill :confused2:

In a just world they would not have skipped three Worlds championships in a row because of injuries and stupid unfair doping accusation, which was lifted too late.

Edit: I'm 99% sure that Tessa and Scott will win OGM this time. My bets for bronze are on the Shibs or Hubbel/Donohue. Hope that all will stay healthy and skate their best, though. There will be a lot of pressure.

Sometimes it's almost funny how people like to single out B/S the most from the top, it really makes me question how much people care about ID if it's not their faves winning or whatever.

Also, I have to agree on V/M winning OGM. With how much they climbed in a year, it's theirs to lose. However, the SD paved their entire way last season, like P/C did with their FDs in the past. I would like the team winning gold to actually have two stand out programs, but maybe that's asking too much.

 

[Rossig]

I'm surprised so many people want V/M, P/C and H/D podium. Personally I don't think it's good for the ice dance if all the teams on the Olympic podium are trained in the same camp.

 

[4everchan]

I'm surprised so many people want V/M, P/C and H/D podium. Personally I don't think it's good for the ice dance if all the teams on the Olympic podium are trained in the same camp.

so it was okay when it was davis and white, and v/m on the top two steps, training with Marina, with the shibs not far behind... but now, it's different?

the history of sport in general or even science or art : there are hubs that are developed with positive circumstances and create the best composers, the best sprinters, the best cancer specialists etc.... the Montreal Ice Dance school is one of those right now, and if I understand that people would like variety in style and so on, well, I couldn't care less where the teams come from, as long as they skate well....

actually my wish would be for a completely Canadian podium as V/M are the strongest, I think Weapo are undermarked when they are on like at worlds and I adore piper and paul's style...

would that be bad if we had 3 canadian team on the podium, i mean they come from three completely different camp :scard7:

 

[gmyers]

In your world, maybe. It's strange that you think that the team with stronger technique than most of the teams you mentioned 'wouldn't be anywhere near making the podium'. They have lost tons of momentum and time after Sochi 2014, and still they keep climbing up the ranks, they have won SD at last Euros with lights out skate and won deserved small bronze medal at last Worlds with not their best FD. You can say it's 'off-rink assistance', I say it's talent and skill :confused2:

In a just world they would not have skipped three Worlds championships in a row because of injuries and stupid unfair doping accusation, which was lifted too late.

Edit: I'm 99% sure that Tessa and Scott will win OGM this time. My bets for bronze are on the Shibs or Hubbel/Donohue. Hope that all will stay healthy and skate their best, though. There will be a lot of pressure.

Bobrova's posture is unacceptable to many. Isu could make a rule about having a certain degree of posture for elements to count. I think she would fail any standard of posture. Of the top 10 teams in the world B/S do the most to ignore modern IJS methods and what is successful in ice dance.

Bobrova posture is completely unacceptable to many prominent experts in ice dance.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?63671-Posture-in-Program-Components

 

[NicoleJ96B]

Just to clarify, they weren't predictions as such, they were things the I thought COULD be the biggest OBSTACLES. I don't think P/C will play it safe with the FD, but if they did that could be the problem.

 

[Rossig]

so it was okay when it was davis and white, and v/m on the top two steps, training with Marina, with the shibs not far behind... but now, it's different?

the history of sport in general or even science or art : there are hubs that are developed with positive circumstances and create the best composers, the best sprinters, the best cancer specialists etc.... the Montreal Ice Dance school is one of those right now, and if I understand that people would like variety in style and so on, well, I couldn't care less where the teams come from, as long as they skate well....

In that case, I'm in minority who would wish ice dance developed in many different centres and different countries. I would wish young ice dancers didn't need to leave schools, families only because there is just one place where they can achieve success and results.

 

[olayolay]

V/M are probably going to have a killer SD, P/C are probably going to have a killer FD. Key to gold lies with whether P/C can find the right Latin program for the SD or whether V/M can find the right program for the FD.

 

[Snow63]

Bobrova's posture is unacceptable to many. Isu could make a rule about having a certain degree of posture for elements to count. I think she would fail any standard of posture. Of the top 10 teams in the world B/S do the most to ignore modern IJS methods and what is successful in ice dance.

Bobrova posture is completely unacceptable to many prominent experts in ice dance.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?63671-Posture-in-Program-Components

Could, would, should..
Experts, right. The judges aren't experts, and they are giving them 9s in components because she's awful and unacceptable and because she's from Russia and Russian skaters are always overscored, I get it. There's simply no more reasons for them to score well. Why do I even bother :confused2:

 

[coldblueeyes]

Could, would, should..
Experts, right. The judges aren't experts, and they are giving them 9s in components because she's awful and unacceptable and because she's from Russia and Russian skaters are always overscored, I get it. There's simply no more reasons for them to score well. Why do I even bother :confused2:

But don't you get it, Snow? The judges are only experts when they award the right team. Otherwise it's unfair, unacceptable, whatever they want to call it.

 

[gmyers]

Could, would, should..
Experts, right. The judges aren't experts, and they are giving them 9s in components because she's awful and unacceptable and because she's from Russia and Russian skaters are always overscored, I get it. There's simply no more reasons for them to score well. Why do I even bother :confused2:

The posture is a problem! It affects pcs and goe! Great pcs now is 9.75 and 10! 8.75 and 9 is now not as good as it might have Been in the past! And posture may mean only +1 And not +3! B/s could be frontrunner for gold but can't be because of posture and ignoring current IJS trends in dance!

But don't you get it, Snow? The judges are only experts when they award the right team. Otherwise it's unfair, unacceptable, whatever they want to call it.

But the posture is a problem! People expressed great love of many aspects of b/s but when she tries to gain speed and bends severely at the waste and looks like a speed skater all hope is destroyed!