Jason Brown

[StitchMonkey]

So I decided to play "What could Jason's score be with a quad?" Based on his TCC scores. I am going for a reasonably realistic possibility from a clean, well done skate where he is comfortable with the programs and elements. Maybe call it the optimistic side of realistic.

Short Program - 87.72
Ways he can improve

1. 3A -.80, total of 7.7 points
2. CCoSP2p3 received 3.7 total (1.20 of GOE)
3. Replace 3z - 7.86 total (1.26 GOE and bonus time) with 4T
4. Layout - 10.44 total for combo in the first half​

1. Fix the 3A For the 3A he got a 1.0 GOE at 2015 Skate America SP 2015 and 1.6 in the SP at IceChallenge. So I will take the lower one to be conservative/realistic. That gives us an extra 1.80 points of GOE.

New score 89.53​

2. Fix the Spin. For a recent example of a level 4, he got a total of 4.00 at 2015 Ondrej Nepela and 4.14 at 2015 Skate America... taking the lower one increases the score another 0.30. Granted it was a different program, but it as recent... plus I don't think anyone is going to argue positive GOE Level 4 spins are beyond an uninjured Jason.

New score 89.83​

3. "The Quad" Now for "The Quad" 10.30 points for 7.86 for an additional 2.44 points and we are up to 92.27 points with no +GOE... but when Jason truly "gets it" i suspect he will get positive GOE - Kori has said as much that clean to them is positive GOE, so I don't think 0 is good enough for them. So I am going to give him .48 hypothetical GOE as that is low enough that it should be a realistic goal and gives an easier to work with new score of.

New score 92.75​

4. Layout Do we really think Jason is going to have all three jumping passes in the first half? No, i really don't think so. When he did attempt a 4T in the SP (at 2015 4CC) he kept the 3A in the first half but did his combo in the second half and got positive GOE for it... So let's move that combo! - that is the most likely layout based on the past examples (also the original plan for the Gatsby SP had the combo in the second half according to Rohene) 9.60 Base value becomes 10.56 for an extra .96 points. I am just leaving the GOE the same since his SP at 4CC was actually higher GOE - so as is seems fair enough since he has done better with a quad attempt.

New score 93.71​

PCS... would his PCS go up with a cleaner performance and a quad? Most likely. So lets give him 1.25 total boost (.25) each. This would be if each judge gave him on average one tick higher in each for various reason - which seems within reason. In theory his PCS should go up with a clean quad... else why do it at this point? Plus this was not a clean skate and his first of the SP. We are doing a hypothetical based on if he skates it cleanly and beautifully with a quad.

New SP score 94.96​

Free Skate 181.50.
Ways he can improve

1. 3A -2.00, total of 7.35 in bonus time
2. Replace a 2A with a 4T​

1. Fix the 3A The only flaw was the 3A for which he lost 2.00 points on. His only positive GOE bonus time 3A was at 2015 4CC where he earned .71 extra. Since this is hypothetical but trying to be realistically optimistic. I am going to give him .50 GOE as it once again is conservative but a reflection of if "he has it", and easy math.

New score 184.00​

2. The Quad - Part Deux Assuming he drops the 2A at the start that is replacing 4.10 (total earned) with a minimum of 10.30 for an additional 6.20 or a new possible score of 190.20. Again, giving him small but realistic GOE let's give him .34 (stick with me for a second)

New score 190.54​

GOE Let's apply the same one .25 high each. That gives us 2.5 due to factoring.

New FS score 193.04​

New Total SP plus FS score 288.00​

This is a maybe He *could* replace the 3F worth 5.3 with a lutz worth 6.0 given how much more stable his flip is... I am not going to do this as I am not sure i expect it. But let's due it anyway. Value of a 3Z+3T in bonus time is 11.33 over the value of a 3F+3T of 10.56 an increase of .77 to the score. Keeping the GOE the same gives 288.77

Since some of you may want a more technical only answer well here you go.

SP
.80 - for a clean 3A no GOE
0.30 - for Spin... yes I am leaving positive GOE here, everyone knows he can spin and I don't have the base value handy... besides it is not that much
2.44 - for quad no GOE
.12 - the difference between what he got for the combo and the second half base value
3.66 total extra plus 87.72 = 91.38

FS
2 - for the base value of the 3A
6.2 - for the base of the quad vs received for 2A
8.2 total extra plus 181.50 = 189.70

Total less optimistic = 279.08... Yeah I think if he does these programs clean and well with a quad each, 280 is a fair goal. Is 300 a realistic goal for Nationals?

If he can get that quad and stay healthy he has the potential to have a great season.

I am half tempted to do a compilation of his best scores ever for each element and do a hypothetical that way, but even i think that might be too optimistic.

 

[musicfan80]

Of course, fit it a little better, that's fine...but this is Rohene we're talking about, so no doubt whatever Jason steps on the ice in next season is going to be unnecessarily gaudy and possibly make Jason look like he's 10. Again.

No. No. No. I think (or at least hoping) that Kori learned from the 2014-15 season about what doesn't work with costumes and how the black pants made Jason look so much better. This podium photo from U.S. Nationals shows how glaringly bad it was.

Sorry I got name wrong, thx for correction! Sadly I think you're right about Rohene, but if what he wants doesn't work, hopefully Kori will change it. I think something like Josh's Schindler's List shirt would work well because it's softer and the shirt seems a bit gauzy but not overly feminine. I do think Jason would be better off with less contrast between top and bottom colors, though - Josh has endless legs and can pull off the high contrast look, but I think Jason needs less contrast for a longer line - maybe lighter near face and then ombré at bottom of shirt toning into pants. Don't see Rohene going for something that simple, though....

I need to research, but didn't Josh go through at least two or three different Schindler's List shirts? I think he started with a slightly blue and then went to a slightly light gray and then finally an almost bleach white - which surprised me that it worked because he has a very fair complexion. I think Jason work with something that light better because his skin isn't so light.

 

[Tavi...]

Great analysis. But do you think it's realistic to start with his TCC scores as a base? His PCS was really high: 44.20 for the short and 91.70 for the free. By comparison, at Worlds last year his PCS was 40.14 / 84.60 (both underscored IMO) and at WTT he got 42.61 / 89.14.

On the other hand, there's been a ton of scoring inflation this year, so it may be that he will get higher PCS going forward. I found it interesting that Boyang Jin's PCS dropped, at least in the free - it was 73.70 versus 80+ :shocked: at 4CC.

Oh by the way - have y'all listened to the TSL / Phil Hersh season recap yet? In true Phil form, he proceeded to say he didn't pay much attention to TCC but he guessed Jason did "a respectable job" coming back from injury. A bit later when reviewing the US men's future, he dismissed Jason (and Adam et al) in a few sentences. Of course he said Jason still doesn't have a reliable triple axel. No, according to Phil, we just have to wait things out: our hopes for the future are Nathan and Vincent Zhou.

Is it terrible that I want Jason to win a big competition with two gorgeous 3As just to make PH eat his words?

 

[Interspectator]

Great analysis. But do you think it's realistic to start with his TCC scores as a base? His PCS was really high: 44.20 for the short and 91.70 for the free. By comparison, at Worlds last year his PCS was 40.14 / 84.60 (both underscored IMO) and at WTT he got 42.61 / 89.14.

On the other hand, there's been a ton of scoring inflation this year, so it may be that he will get higher PCS going forward. I found it interesting that Boyang Jin's PCS dropped, at least in the free - it was 73.70 versus 80+ :shocked: at 4CC.

Oh by the way - have y'all listened to the TSL / Phil Hersh season recap yet? In true Phil form, he proceeded to say he didn't pay much attention to TCC but he guessed Jason did "a respectable job" coming back from injury. A bit later when reviewing the US men's future, he dismissed Jason (and Adam et al) in a few sentences. Of course he said Jason still doesn't have a reliable triple axel. No, according to Phil, we just have to wait things out: our hopes for the future are Nathan and Vincent Zhou.

Is it terrible that I want Jason to win a big competition with two gorgeous 3As just to make PH eat his words?

I hope so!

 

[StitchMonkey]

Great analysis. But do you think it's realistic to start with his TCC scores as a base? His PCS was really high: 44.20 for the short and 91.70 for the free. By comparison, at Worlds last year his PCS was 40.14 / 84.60 (both underscored IMO) and at WTT he got 42.61 / 89.14.

Well the whole point really was to have fun with this more recent comp. But honestly... i am not sure his scores are that far off from what he could have got with this season. His PB from WTT is not that much less than what he got here and before all the coo coo crazy scoring started. While "who knows" is the real answer, I don't think it is out of the realm of reasonable compared to what we saw this year. And really these were not perfect skates, they were not really Jason at 100% so I think any inflation here could be offset by Jason getting the programs nailed.

Oh by the way - have y'all listened to the TSL / Phil Hersh season recap yet? In true Phil form, he proceeded to say he didn't pay much attention to TCC but he guessed Jason did "a respectable job" coming back from injury. A bit later when reviewing the US men's future, he dismissed Jason (and Adam et al) in a few sentences. Of course he said Jason still doesn't have a reliable triple axel. No, according to Phil, we just have to wait things out: our hopes for the future are Nathan and Vincent Zhou.

Is it terrible that I want Jason to win a big competition with two gorgeous 3As just to make PH eat his words?

Yes I saw it... at least he is consistent. But really Phill's standard is "medal contender without others imploding" and by that standard, Jason does need to get his 3A more consistent and get the quad. I think when if/when he has that, he will be rewarded, but who knows how long it will take for Phill to acknowledged it.

My guess is that when Jason first lands a quad Phill will say "now keep doing it" when he does... he likely will be willing to say that Jason has a fighting shot at the big league if he can keep it up.

Worth noting was that when talking about the next big coach part, he did include Kori in the conversation.

 

[el henry]

Can't listen to Phil yet, still on a high, don't want to come down ....

Has anyone watched the CBS broadcast of Jason's skate? I didn't see it live, but Sabinfire posted it on his YT channel. What a pleasure to listen to Scott Hamilton!:yes: Yes, his voice can be annoying, yes he talks through some of the performance, but to listen to someone who actually *likes* Jason and acknowledges his popularity. Instead of faux criticism from Johnny "I'm just like an NFL commentator" Weir. It is also worth listening to for some of the little tidbits; I don't know if Scott was serious, but he said he asked Kori if she wanted to come to Nashville....

What a relief not to have to dread the commentary!

 

[Tavi...]

So yeah, I actually enjoyed Scott and Tanith overall and liked what Scott said about Jason. Actually, Michael Weiss was pretty complimentary too - I liked that he acknowledged that he and others often make a big deal about quads but Jason's programs are almost always among his favorites. And I was pleased that Charlie White specifically acknowledged his edges and flow!

Stitch I actually agree with you that Jason may well start getting that kind of PCS going forward - I thought he was going to get it last fall after WTT but I think adding the unmastered quad impacted both the 3As and his PCS. It's not that I don't think Jason needs to improve - I just hate PH kind of writing him and other guys off.

I actually thought it was a great sign that he and Kori both talked about how competitive he is and that he talked about how hungry he is to win. I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens next year!

 

[TMC]

Whole post

Great analysis, Stitch! Thank you for taking the time to do that, I enjoyed reading it It's surprising how close he already is to the maximum. Then again it isn't because he was so close to perfect. But when you wrote about his GOE going up 0.25, I think you meant PCS?

I'm still on such a high...I've watched that LP about 20 times now. Per day. I can't believe I'm going to get to see it in person next year

 

[karne]

I'm still on such a high...I've watched that LP about 20 times now. Per day. I can't believe I'm going to get to see it in person next year

I am so incredibly jealous.

 

[TMC]

What a little ham he was! Or is still is, I guess. Actually the design on the costume you like is kind of a more subtle version of the design on the current SP costume - instead of the colors in the current costume, the design is outlined in subtle bling and as you said extends down the leg a bit. I like the color - hard to tell if it's black, dark brown, dark eggplant - but it suits him.

So does the old FS costume not fit because he's lost weight? He looks a little thinner now but I don't see a huge change.

He looks thinner - and somehow broader in the shoulders - in the LP costume, but the SP costume makes him look chunkier and actually gives the illusion of a little pot belly...

 

[Tavi...]

He looks thinner - and somehow broader in the shoulders - in the LP costume, but the SP costume makes him look chunkier and actually gives the illusion of a little pot belly...

Man we really don't have enough skating to talk about, do we?! Wahh! Unfair he's had two offseasons in one year! :sad21:

In June they announce GP assignments, maybe in early July he'll do Broadmoor, and MAYBE this time we'll get to see it. In August, Glacier Falls. So little skating, so much time!

I'm hoping he'll appear in Jordan's benefit next month, but he hasn't been announced so that's far from a sure thing.

A little OT but it would be so great if Jordan has recovered enough to skate!

 

[TMC]

Man we really don't have enough skating to talk about, do we?! Wahh! Unfair he's had two offseasons in one year! :sad21:

In June they announce GP assignments, maybe in early July he'll do Broadmoor, and MAYBE this time we'll get to see it. In August, Glacier Falls. So little skating, so much time!

I'm hoping he'll appear in Jordan's benefit next month, but he hasn't been announced so that's far from a sure thing.

A little OT but it would be so great if Jordan has recovered enough to skate!

I know!!! If it hadn't been for TCC, I think I would have been pretty okay with waiting for another few months. Now it's like the skate gods have dangled this wonderful promise in front of us and snatched it away again

Jordan instagrammed a pic of himself in skates on ice a few weeks ago, so it's looking good!

 

[Tavi...]

I know!!! If it hadn't been for TCC, I think I would have been pretty okay with waiting for another few months. Now it's like the skate gods have dangled this wonderful promise in front of us and snatched it away again

Jordan instagrammed a pic of himself in skates on ice a few weeks ago, so it's looking good!

Did you mean pot belly underneath the blue criss cross thingy? I was more distracted by the ill- fitting back and waist in the FS, TBH! Anyway, not having enough to think about, I looked for some pictures of Jason last season / earlier this season. Here's one probably from SA:

Image from http://www.ifigureskating.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/brown21.jpg.

And here's one probably from last year:

Image from http://www.trbimg.com/img-55158891/...n-brown-in-familiar-position--001/650/650x366.

There's actually a big difference from the Jason we saw at TCC - he looks much less muscular and more elongated now. I remember thinking last summer / fall the style of the first FS costume (a onesie) didn't really flatter him because he was so "thick" and developed in the hip / waist / rear area. While I don't love the current SP costume overall, I do think the onesie style is now flattering to him. I am curious if the greater muscular development he had then was related to trying to master the bigger jumps and maybe contributed to his injury. Certainly looking at Hanyu and Jin, it looks like that kind of development may not be necessary for quads.

 

[TMC]

Did you mean pot belly underneath the blue criss cross thingy? I was more distracted by the ill- fitting back and waist in the FS, TBH! Anyway, not having enough to think about, I looked for some pictures of Jason last season / earlier this season. Here's one probably from SA:

Image from http://www.ifigureskating.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/brown21.jpg.

And here's one probably from last year:

Image from http://www.trbimg.com/img-55158891/...n-brown-in-familiar-position--001/650/650x366.

There's actually a big difference from the Jason we saw at TCC - he looks much less muscular and more elongated now. I remember thinking last summer / fall the style of the first FS costume (a onesie) didn't really flatter him because he was so "thick" and developed in the hip / waist / rear area. While I don't love the current SP costume overall, I do think the onesie style is now flattering to him. I am curious if the greater muscular development he had then was related to trying to master the bigger jumps and maybe contributed to his injury. Certainly looking at Hanyu and Jin, it looks like that kind of development may not be necessary for quads.

Yes, exactly. And now I can't watch the SP without staring at that area.

I think you're probably right. I can't really tell a difference between the pics you posted and how he looks now, but that's mainly because I can't stop staring at another area in the 2nd photo

 

[Impromptu]

Oh by the way - have y'all listened to the TSL / Phil Hersh season recap yet? In true Phil form, he proceeded to say he didn't pay much attention to TCC but he guessed Jason did "a respectable job" coming back from injury. A bit later when reviewing the US men's future, he dismissed Jason (and Adam et al) in a few sentences. Of course he said Jason still doesn't have a reliable triple axel. No, according to Phil, we just have to wait things out: our hopes for the future are Nathan and Vincent Zhou.

Didn't listen to the podcast... but none of that is surprising. I had a press credential for US Nationals, and sat within earshot of Hersh during the men's finals. He was very much a quad uber alles attitude - and he was totally on board with Zhou and Chen during their performances. The only non-quad skater who caught his interest was Alex Johnson ... until he found out Alex's age. Then Alex was dismissed as over-the-hill.

There's a lot about Hersh I like - I enjoy his writing, and he clearly loves figure skating. But he (along with a lot of other journalists) right now thinks that the US men will not be competitive without quads (probably true), and if you're not doing quads as a teenager, you're probably never going to do one (probably false).

I personally think Jason will get his quad toe, but it's possible that might not be enough these days.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Great analysis, Stitch! Thank you for taking the time to do that, I enjoyed reading it It's surprising how close he already is to the maximum. Then again it isn't because he was so close to perfect. But when you wrote about his GOE going up 0.25, I think you meant PCS?

I'm still on such a high...I've watched that LP about 20 times now. Per day. I can't believe I'm going to get to see it in person next year

Doh! Yes I did mean that. Damn acronyms. To be honest it started out as my own notes for my own calculations, at some point i decided to turn it into a post... not surprised i did something stupid like that.

His free in person was very pretty even when it was his first time showing it off. I am sure you will like it.

He looks thinner - and somehow broader in the shoulders - in the LP costume, but the SP costume makes him look chunkier and actually gives the illusion of a little pot belly...

His body has been changing a lot over the season. He was getting rather muscular in the fall, I assumed it was due to training for the quad. It was enough muscle that i could see things shifting if he is not working out as much. His SP costume i agree was unflattering on the tummy area. And really if he guy wanted to eat extra during recovery... i don't blame him. I don't know if it was the costume or just Jason being human.

 

[Tavi...]

Didn't listen to the podcast... but none of that is surprising. I had a press credential for US Nationals, and sat within earshot of Hersh during the men's finals. He was very much a quad uber alles attitude - and he was totally on board with Zhou and Chen during their performances. The only non-quad skater who caught his interest was Alex Johnson ... until he found out Alex's age. Then Alex was dismissed as over-the-hill.

There's a lot about Hersh I like - I enjoy his writing, and he clearly loves figure skating. But he (along with a lot of other journalists) right now thinks that the US men will not be competitive without quads (probably true), and if you're not doing quads as a teenager, you're probably never going to do one (probably false).

I personally think Jason will get his quad toe, but it's possible that might not be enough these days.

Hi - thanks for your perspective and welcome! I agree with you that his comments are nothing new, and also that there's a lot to like about PH. I have actually had some interesting conversations with him on Twitter. I also think that with the changing quad landscape this winter, his quad-centric perspective makes a certain sense, though I don't like it.

I'm kind of interested to see if there will be any kind of a scoring "correction" next year - eg, if judges will keep handing out PCS like candy or if they will make an attempt to differentiate between tech and presentation. Jason's scores at TCC were super-high for a guy without a quad, but there's no way to know why that happened, and it may well not carry over next year.

And I agree with you that even assuming he does get that quad (I think he will too) it may not be enough to make him competitive.

But I'm thrilled he's back!

 

[LRK]

Well the whole point really was to have fun with this more recent comp. But honestly... i am not sure his scores are that far off from what he could have got with this season. His PB from WTT is not that much less than what he got here and before all the coo coo crazy scoring started. While "who knows" is the real answer, I don't think it is out of the realm of reasonable compared to what we saw this year. And really these were not perfect skates, they were not really Jason at 100% so I think any inflation here could be offset by Jason getting the programs nailed.

I wanted to say "thanks" for putting all that together, Stitch! Also, my first instinct was to think that setting out from the TCC scores was rather on the optimistic side... until I saw the actual numbers you arrived at. And you know? I think it's not that unrealistic at all. Totally from a standpoint of non-technical knowledge, but just comparing what some others have got with similar content... I think it's actually quite doable. As we know, by adding a quad, the PCS is unlikely, at any rate, to go down.

 

[Mrs. P]

Spokesman Review had a nice big photo of Jason in Sunday's TCC special section: https://www.dropbox.com/s/lcsi3egkhe2obuw/Photo Apr 25, 7 47 05 AM.jpg?dl=0

There's a few more photos from the FS in this SR photo gallery (his photos are toward the end): http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/apr/23/john-blanchette-manufactured-team-challenge-cup-mi/

Also:

The SR photo staff featured a photo of Jason in this tweet (the same one as was in their paper on Saturday): https://twitter.com/Spokesman_Photo/status/723754241605570566

And a few more here:
http://www.spokesman.com/galleries/2016/apr/21/us-figure-skaters-visit-sacred-heart-childrens-hos/
http://www.spokesman.com/galleries/2016/apr/22/2016-kose-team-challenge-cup-day-1/

 

[Tavi...]

Thanks for these - they got some amazing pictures of all the skaters. I especially like the hospital photos and of course the two of Jason's SP are great. The Denis Ten donut spin photo is incredible!