Kimmie: Do you ?Really? think she can...

[orchid]

Okay, after viewing Kimmie's nice but less than podium level performances at the Grand Prix events. Does anyone still think she can make it to the podium at Nationals? If so, why?

She cannot depend on the triple axel, certainly when a 3+2+2 that other skaters land, earns almost as many points.

Her style is improving but.... not enough yet.

Thoughts?

 

[Mathman]

I think Kimmie has as good a chance as anyone. To me, she's "coming along nicely."

With Michelle's situation in doubt, only Sasha is a lock for the podium. To medal at Nationals Kimmie doesn't need to be perfect, just better than the other ladies.

Alissa gave a great accounting of herself at Skate America and Skate Canada. The Grand Prix finals should give us a clue as to whether she can keep it up. Neither Bebe nor Emily have done markedly better than Kimmie this year.

I think this could be a wide-open shootout with a trip to the Olympics on the line. I'm not ruling out dark horses Christine Zukowski, Stephanie Roth, Katy Taylor or Danielle Kahle.

Go Amber!

MM

 

[R.D.]

Kimmie's biggest competitor is Alissa, and I bet they fight it out for the third spot. Cohen is definitely going to the Olys (don't know where on the podium she would be though- could be anywhere) and Kwan is a ?. But she is going if she recovers even partly. Mark my words...

 

[Vash01]

I think Kimmie has as good a chance as anyone. To me, she's "coming along nicely."

With Michelle's situation in doubt, only Sasha is a lock for the podium. To medal at Nationals Kimmie doesn't need to be perfect, just better than the other ladies.

Alissa gave a great accounting of herself at Skate America and Skate Canada. The Grand Prix finals should give us a clue as to whether she can keep it up. Neither Bebe nor Emily have done markedly better than Kimmie this year.

I think this could be a wide-open shootout with a trip to the Olympics on the line. I'm not ruling out dark horses Christine Zukowski, Stephanie Roth, Katy Taylor or Danielle Kahle.

Go Amber!

MM

I agree that Sasha is a lock. If Michelle is healthy, she too will be a lock, regardless of how she does at nationals. I think it comes down to Kimmie vs. Alissa, and right now Alissa has the edge because of the COP. I don't think any of the US ladies (Amber included) has a chance of going to the Olympics. The USFSA will not select a skater without international experience for the Olympics. Sasha in 2002 was a huge exception, but only because she was so incredibly talented (and she did have some international exposure at the Goodwill Games that season).

Vash

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Not every teenager is going to bounce around with a big smile and even giggle while skating. I think Kimmie is going the route of a work in progress. I think she has the makings of a beautiful skater. Will she win the 2010 Olys? I have no idea, but she will be a beautiful skater.

Joe

 

[flying camel]

I actually like Kimmie's short program, but the long, what were they thinking? Lori looks like she spent 5 minutes with Kimmie. It is embarashingly ugly choreography. They really need to rework that program.:sheesh:

 

[euterpe]

Kimmie did MUCH, MUCH better than Emily Hughes in the GPF. They may both have two fifth place finishes and 8 points, but Kimmie's combined scores for two events was 307.90 to Emily's 252.54.

To put a little perspective on it:

If Emily had skated at Kimmie's GP events (TEB and NHK) with her scores from SA (126.78) or CoR (125.76), she would have finished eighth at both events.

OTOH, if Kimmie had skated at Emily's events (SA and CoR), her scores from TEB (155.72) and NHK (152.18) would have won a bronze medal at both events.

 

[mzheng]

If Michelle not there, Kimmie pretty much is a lock on podium. But if Michelle is health enough, then she has to compete the 3rd spot against Alissa. IMO.

 

[soogar]

Kimmie did MUCH, MUCH better than Emily Hughes in the GPF. They may both have two fifth place finishes and 8 points, but Kimmie's combined scores for two events was 307.90 to Emily's 252.54.

To put a little perspective on it:

If Emily had skated at Kimmie's GP events (TEB and NHK) with her scores from SA (126.78) or CoR (125.76), she would have finished eighth at both events.

OTOH, if Kimmie had skated at Emily's events (SA and CoR), her scores from TEB (155.72) and NHK (152.18) would have won a bronze medal at both events.

It really doesn't matter how Kimmie does in the GP series compared to Emily. What matters is who can bring it to Nationals. Emily doesn't have the amount of competitive experience that Kimmie has. Kimmie has been a top junior for 2 years and Emily just started competing seriously at a high level b.c she has not progressed as quickly. However slow and steady does/can win the race. If Emily can resolve her jump issues, she's going to be very tough competition for Alissa and Kimmie. Emily is a much better skater than either of them with more speed, lots of power and great edges. Emily is also a fantastic spinner. Other than Alissa's lights out spins, Alissa doesn't have that much going for her. Her jumps aren't that great (though she has been consistent this year so far) and her basic skating skills are not on par with Emily's (or Kimmie's for that matter).

I also want to add that you really can't bring scores across events. Some events were low scoring b/c there was a really strict technical caller. Kimmie's jumps might have all been downgraded at CoR like they downgraded Miki Ando's 3-3 combo.

 

[dewey]

"It really doesn't matter how Kimmie does in the GP series compared to Emily. What matters is who can bring it to Nationals. "

Actually, that's not entirely true. Only the National Champion automatically has a spot at the Olympics; there is some leeway in determining who gets the other two spots. So Kimmie's and Emily's performances in the GP and their other appearances this fall can be taken into consideration.

 

[jesslily]

Emily Hughes and Katy Taylor are about having same skating ability. But somehow Emily placement was higher than Katy Taylor last year at nationals, and this year she got GP assignments while Katy got the JGP. I don't feel Emily is any better than Katy.

 

[skatergirlaj]

I think she has a good chance,right now the top ladies in my opinion are Sasha, Alissa and Kimmie with Emily right on their heels. But this season I am not predicting anything cause i have a feeling it'll one of those seasons where anything can happen.

 

[SK8LUVR]

It is hard to say who will be at the Olympics. You have a great bunch of new skaters coming up but I think that you will have Sasha winning Nationals with Alyssa in there somewhere. Let's see how she does at the Grand Prix Final.

I really don't think that Kimmie will make the team if Michelle is around. As for Michelle, God Love her, but she really didn't look good at Marshalls. I hope that she can get it together in the next few weeks to come and really rock those girls socks off. I think it will be Sasha, Alyssa, Kimmie if Michelle is not there and Sasha, Michelle, Alyssa if she is there. Can't wait, it should be interesting!!!!!

 

[euterpe]

Emily's jumps lack flow and rideout. When she hits the ice on her jumps, her skating comes to a complete halt. She may have power, but she totally lacks finesse. I think some of her falls are due to inertia. She jumps and stops, but her body wants to keep going, so she falls.

Some people can fall and quickly get up without appearing too graceless, but not Emily. The only skater who can outdo her when it comes to downright clumsy falls is Carolina Kostner.

The judges don't seem impressed with Emily's style, as they gave her PCS in the mid 5's at Skate America, and in the upper 5's at CoR, while all Kimmie's PCS scores were in the mid-6s. Emily is still very rough around the edges.

 

[euterpe]

Emily's jumps lack flow and rideout. When she hits the ice on her jumps, her skating comes to a complete halt. She may have power, but she totally lacks finesse. I think some of her falls are due to inertia. She jumps and stops, but her body wants to keep going, so she falls.

Some people can fall and quickly get up without appearing too graceless, but not Emily. The only skater who can outdo her when it comes to downright clumsy falls is Carolina Kostner.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

I also want to add that you really can't bring scores across events. Some events were low scoring b/c there was a really strict technical caller. Kimmie's jumps might have all been downgraded at CoR like they downgraded Miki Ando's 3-3 combo.

Is this true across the board or in relation to the CoR event? I see people making major predicitons / statements based on scores but can never figure out if this is fair or misleading. For example, one skater's personal best of 110 vs. another skater's off night of 110 aren't really comparable the way I see it... but like I say all the time, I'm old school & never had trouble identifying a 5.9 from a 5.8 so CoP details are sometimes lost on me...

Any thoughts?

 

[jesslily]

If Michelle is determined to compete, Sasha is the 2nd in the team, than the 3rd spot is among Kimmie, Alissa, and Bebe. Kimme so far did not shine in grand prix.
Alissa's performace at Boston cheesefest showed her certain jumps are not that solid at all. Bebe did not get much exposure as these two ladies, but her skating ability is well known by her fans, as well as USFS officials and judges. Bebe has the power, speed, and good jumping technique. If she can pay some attention to her dresses, hair-do, and make-up, she could be a skating swan.

 

[attyfan]

FWIW, the USFSA rules say that only the Nat champ is guaranteed a spot; the other two spots rest on consideration of what happens at the following events (in priority order): 2006 Nats; 2005 GPF (not GP series); 2005 Sr. Worlds; and on down. If there is a petition for a bye (by a skater who cannot compete at Nats due to illness or injury) then the placements at 2006 Nats are ignored, and the same events, in the same order, are considered.

As I make this out, unless Michelle is really blown away by three other skaters, then Michelle should get named to the Oly team, even if she doesn't skate well enough for the podium, if it is close, or, if she needs a bye. Only Alissa made the GPF, and, Michelle's 4th place at Senior Worlds trumps everybody else (except Sasha).

 

[soogar]

Is this true across the board or in relation to the CoR event? I see people making major predicitons / statements based on scores but can never figure out if this is fair or misleading. For example, one skater's personal best of 110 vs. another skater's off night of 110 aren't really comparable the way I see it... but like I say all the time, I'm old school & never had trouble identifying a 5.9 from a 5.8 so CoP details are sometimes lost on me...

Any thoughts?

This is true. Even though announcers and everyone throw around personal best scores like candy, the reality is that with different panels and different technical callers it is very difficult to compare scores. I think in this year's GP, one of the announcers said that the technical caller in dance was really strict because there were so many deductions being called for lifts. I think it was SC where almost all the couples had several deductions for timed lifts. In other GP events, the average set of deductions was 1 or 2. Also PCS scores vary according to the panels and (IMO) where the event is. Also Asada's PCS scores increased from one event to the other (as well as Czisney's) when they did well in their first event (ie built a little reputation).

As for deciding who to choose for the National team, I highly doubt the USFS will choose Kimmy over Emily. Neither skater has done anything significant on the GP or will medal in the Olympics (though I still think Emily can medal). The only skaters the USFS will put on the team are Michelle and Sasha. Alissa's GP final won't mean anything if she doesn't skate well at Nationals.

 

[R.D.]

As for deciding who to choose for the National team, I highly doubt the USFS will choose Kimmy over Emily. Neither skater has done anything significant on the GP or will medal in the Olympics (though I still think Emily can medal). The only skaters the USFS will put on the team are Michelle and Sasha. Alissa's GP final won't mean anything if she doesn't skate well at Nationals.

So can the US send only two ladies if they wanted to? or do they HAVE to send three?