Michelle - The End or a New Beginning?

[apache88]

From my analysis, jumps are never the issue for Michelle, thanks to the COP for not rewarding combos and jump-sequences. Purely on jump points, one skater just has to make one more jump be it a double or a triple to outscore another skater.

If Michelle is just being Michelle, the decade-long consistent jumper whom you can always count on (well except this 2005 Worlds) to deliver those triples, this aspect of the TES is completely taken care of. I wouldn't bet on Irina or Sasha to consistently outjump Michelle as far as the number of triples is concerned. Look at Sokolova, if my memory serves well, when she delivered those triples in 2003 Worlds, everyone was touting her as the next jumping queen. It never materialized since. People take it for granted just how difficult it is to consistently deliver 6-7 triples season in season out like Michelle had done before 2004.

It doesn't matter if Irina has 6 triples with one or two 3/3s as long as Michelle delivers exactly the same 6 triples individually. Assuming the GOE is 0 of course. Now let's factor the GOE in, I noticed Michelle's GOE for her clean jumps was actually very good ranging from 0.14 for 3lz to 0.71 for 3f. That's comparable to Irina's except Irina's highest GOE was for her incredible 3f with 1.00. In a nutshell, jumps are never Michelle's issue to catch up.

Ditto for her choreography. She used to be one of the few who had programs jampacked with choreography and in-betweens until the end of 2002 season, so why would anyone in their right minds, bet Michelle with struggle with choreography in her new LP for the Oly season? Unless you are someone who has never excelled in choreography then it's another story. Does it make sense?

As for her spirals, with more practice she can easily consistently execute the level 3 spiral sequence. Same for her footwork. Notice her footwork actually was scored higher than Irina's and Sasha's in the freeskate after the GOE was included.

The detailed COP scores are found here:
http://www.isufs.org/results/wc2005/index.htm

The real problem is her spins, yes that's the culprit. From 1993 till now, her spins have always been quite the same in terms of difficulty, variation and speed. Is Michelle capable of upgrading it, most probably yes given she is a great skater with very strong basic skills, but she will have to struggle to upgrade IMO. Spin scores are the biggest concern assuming Michelle successfully upgrades all other aspects of her skating for the next season. For Sasha and Irina, they can do those difficult spins in their sleep.

Just MHO, please feel free to disagree.

 

[Linny]

Spins

If it's spins, perhaps she can order some Swiss chocalate?
Linny

 

[Doggygirl]

Interesting ideas...

Well, if there is one thing I feel pretty sure about, it's that MK's retirement (from eligible ranks), whether it's this year, next year, or some other year will probably catch us all by surprise whenever it happens.

Who knows about the ever mysterious MK, but here are a few random thoughts on the matter.

I somehow don't picture MK going to the OIy's just to be a medal contender, or just to represent her home country 1 more time. I can only envision her taking one more shot if she's sees good odds for Gold. There is lots of stiff competition, and on two previous occassions when MK was favored, she wasn't able to deliver. Is that the sort of thing that becomes a bugaboo in one's head? Don't know. I think if we see MK going for Oly's next year though, it will ONLY be because she believes she has a better than even odds chance at Gold. (and that is not in any way a criticism of MK, whether I'm right or wrong on that point) In order to see a better than even odds shot, she's got lots of work to do. Does she want to? Don't know.

I somehow have a hard time imagining her doing one more Oly's just for old times sake and using that by design as her retirement party ala Katarina Witt. There are two reasons I think this. 1) Katarina already did it that way, and I think MK will come up with her own unique retirement party. 2) MK thrives on her home turf. Her fans love her, and somehow I can imagine MK wanting her final eligible competitive performance to be on her home turf in front of HER fan base. Marshall's? 2006 US Nats? Who knows - it's just a theory.

LOL, my final reason to think MK might retire sooner rather than later is because Joe predicted it. I've learned to pay heed to Joe's predictions.

DG

 

[Mathman]

It's not the system, it was the skate.

Just to piggyback on that comment, I think the same can be said of Irina. I don't think she won because of maxing out the CoP, but because she skated the lights out of her program. That performance would have won under any scoring system.

The funny thing is that the big knock on the CoP was that it failed sufficiently to reward the big high risk elements -- quads for men and triple-triples for ladies. It was feared that this would cause skaters to play it safe and would put a damper on pushing the technical envelope.

I think this Worlds has put some of that concern to rest. Although Buttle, Lysacek and Weir did well, the winner is the guy who delivered two huge quads, one in combination. The winning lady did a triple Lutz / triple loop.

About Michelle, there have only been a couple of hints on this thread that she might be wearing out physically. Is it possible that she skipped the Grand Prix series not because she is silly and obstinate, but because her body is trying to tell her something?

At the Cambell's event she said that she had been trying to practice a level two layback spin, but the changes of position hurt her back, so she did not include it in that performance. Two weeks before Skate America she announced that she would not compete, even though the week before she had been pretty certain that she would. Again there were suggestions, although the Mysterious One never said so straight out, that she was resting her back.

There may be more to it than just Michelle "deciding" to upgrade all her elements, do the full the grand Prix circuit, then go gung ho into the Olympics.

Mathman

 

[attyfan]

About Michelle, there have only been a couple of hints on this thread that she might be wearing out physically. Is it possible that she skipped the Grand Prix series not because she is silly and obstinate, but because her body is trying to tell her something? ... There may be more to it than just Michelle "deciding" to upgrade all her elements, do the full the grand Prix circuit, then go gung ho into the Olympics. Mathman

Michelle herself said that she didn't regret skipping the GP because she wasn't hurt, whereas so many skaters were injured. IMHO, I don't think that the OGM is Kwan's biggest priority. I think that she (wisely) puts her health first. Others (notably Tara and Plushy) haven't done so.

 

[tannisming]

Just saying. MK may be forced to do GP this next time if she wants to do Worlds and Olys.

 

[mzheng]

I somehow have a hard time imagining her doing one more Oly's just for old times sake and using that by design as her retirement party ala Katarina Witt. There are two reasons I think this. 1) Katarina already did it that way, and I think MK will come up with her own unique retirement party. 2) MK thrives on her home turf. Her fans love her, and somehow I can imagine MK wanting her final eligible competitive performance to be on her home turf in front of HER fan base. Marshall's? 2006 US Nats? Who knows - it's just a theory.

DG

You never know what's going on in her head with the achievements in her fields like she's had. I don't know either, but I will predict if she goes 2006 US Nats and earned a spot, she will go 2006 Olympics....

She is not the type of person withdraw or pre-withdraw from a prescheduled competetion knowing she has little chance to win, like many others (whose name should not be mentioned here) had done.

 

[2ndmark]

Interesting thread with many thoughtful observations. Here are mine:

1. Michelle did not sound like anyone considering retirement in the interview following her LP skate. She sounded angry. With herself. How many times have we heard in the past that Michelle is at her best when fighting? Will she or won't she? We don't know. But I agree with those who think she does indeed have another great, shining moment on the ice in her future.

2. One thing you don't hear much discussion of is Irina retiring. For me, she seems to be the one more likely to quietly bow out. Sure, she had a great season. But her poor health is still in the equation as is her mother's condition. Perhaps she will prove to be the one who is unwilling (or unable) to make the sacrifices necessary for another go for the Gold. She achieved her goal of winning a world championship in her home town. That may be enough for her.

 

[Mathman]

Just saying. MK may be forced to do GP this next time if she wants to do Worlds and Olys.

That's what I hoped would happen this year. That the ISU would issue a decree that Michelle, Sasha and Plushenko were banned from Worlds for skipping the GP, even though they were the national champions and world team members selected according to the protocols of the U.S. and Russian federations.

That would have been worth tuning in for, LOL. I wonder who would have backed down?

Mathman

 

[Doggygirl]

Lol Mm..

That's what I hoped would happen this year. That the ISU would issue a decree that Michelle, Sasha and Plushenko were banned from Worlds for skipping the GP, even though they were the national champions and world team members selected according to the protocols of the U.S. and Russian federations.

That would have been worth tuning in for, LOL. I wonder who would have backed down?

Mathman

Well, since the ISU likes to keep things sekret, rather than openly ban them I think Speedy would have been more inclined to sekretly send someone named Bruno out to bash some knee caps. And I think Bruno's knee caps might have been the ones in trouble at the end of the day. And then once suspicions came out that the ISU was behind the whole thing, the ISU would claim that Tonya Harding was the one who hired Bruno.

DG

 

[kareliz]

Great thread and thanks everyone for the thoughtful posts.

I am confident that Michelle will do her best to have a great season next year. A 3/3 will help her, but with the scoring the way it is, it may not be crucial, as long as she does 6-7 triples and the requisite number of combos. She might have to decide how to invest her training time, and she may get more payoff by improvng her spins than by training hard on 3/3's.

Her best bet is doing what she does best - moves in the field, choreography, just breathtaking, beautiful movement. She needs to have a skillfully and beautifully choreographed program that just leaves you enthralled. Then she has to land a bunch of jumps and still be able to do the choreography.

I think that she may not be able to improve her technical stuff that much more than she already has. So she should capitalize on her strengths and get evey point out of them that she can.

I really would love to see her win OGM, but as others have said, it takes nothing away from her brilliance if she doesn't.

Because it would be such a great story, and make me laugh and cry alot, I am hoping to see just brilliant programs that show off her unique talent, and then lots of gold medals. That is my fantasy, but it just could come true.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

LOL, my final reason to think MK might retire sooner rather than later is because Joe predicted it. I've learned to pay heed to Joe's predictions.
DG

Oh Doggygirl - Let's hope I am wrong :agree:

Joe

 

[dlkksk8fan]

What if Michelle doesn't medal at the 2006 US Nationals? I mean we are all assuming that she will, but what if she doesn't? Then no Olympics.

 

[soogar]

What if Michelle doesn't medal at the 2006 US Nationals? I mean we are all assuming that she will, but what if she doesn't? Then no Olympics.

Please.. who are the two Americans they are going to send beside Sasha? Jenny who consistently finishes in the teens at Worlds? Bebe who actually finished behind Jenny at 4c's? Kimmy and Emily? Probably one will go, but not both. It will be Sasha and Kwan for two of those spots and everyone will fight it out for 3rd. Neither of the junior girls have the presentation to even come close to a watered down Bolero. Beside, if it weren't for MK there wouldn't be a 3rd spot.

The only way Michelle will not medal at Nats is if she doesn't compete.

 

[ChiSk8Fan]

I would have to say both. The end of her post-2002 era, and the beginning of the CoP era, which will end shortly and begin the "Professional" era.

I think Michelle will skate for 4 years after 2006 as a professional. After a new 2010 champion is crowned, we will see less of her as she approaches 30. She will make a professional comeback at the age of 33 - 35 after time away and then retire after two seasons - one to come back and one to retire on. By age 36, she will be done.

These are just guesses based on being a fan long enough to recognize patterns in the careers of long time skaters and other professional athletes in other sports.

In 2016, please refer to this post. :yes:

 

[tannisming]

Michelle may very well be required by the ISU to compete in GP next season in order to attend Worlds and OLYs. They weren't happy at her sitting out this one. Remember Speedy's letter? The fact is, the rest of the skating world is not going to stop because of MK's back or even Plushy's groin problems. It will continue with or without them.

 

[soogar]

Michelle may very well be required by the ISU to compete in GP next season in order to attend Worlds and OLYs. They weren't happy at her sitting out this one. Remember Speedy's letter? The fact is, the rest of the skating world is not going to stop because of MK's back or even Plushy's groin problems. It will continue with or without them.

I don't think the ISU really cared about Kwan. She had skipped the GP before and there wasn't anything made of it. I think that letter was more geared towards Plush doing a show at the same time he was supposed to compete in NHK.

 

[Mathman]

Michelle may very well be required by the ISU to compete in GP next season in order to attend Worlds and OLYs. They weren't happy at her sitting out this one. Remember Speedy's letter? The fact is, the rest of the skating world is not going to stop because of MK's back or even Plushy's groin problems. It will continue with or without them.

That's the $64 question. Can the ISU make this requirement under it's charter, and can they make it stick?

The problem is that the ISU is not an independent oversight body. It is a confederation of national skating federations. No individual is even a member of the ISU, and the officers serve at the pleasure of the federations. That is why the ISU cannot clear up corruption within its ranks -- it is the federations policing themselves.

As I understand the ISU by-laws, it is very clear that the choice of whom to send to Worlds and the Olympics is the prerogative of the National Federations, not of the ISU officers. But on the other hand, the ISU can set rules, for instance about drug use, which come into force after a vote of the membership.

So to me, it iskind of a grey area just what kind of "requirements" the officers of the ISU may impose. Sort of like a proclamation by the secretary general of the United Nations. It has force only if the individual natons decide to go along with it.

Note that when the flap came up last year about Plushenko, neither Cinquanta nor any representative of the ISU said anything to Evgeni. Instead, Cinquanta wrote his famous letter to Piseev, and to USFS, etc. In the event, Piseev leaned on Plushenko. As far as I know USFS blew off Cinquanta regarding Sasha and Michelle and ignored the issue.

So I think the issue is a lot more interesting than just, is Speedy happy or not.

MM

PS. Considering what happened at Worlds, after Plushenko was forced to do the Cup or Russia and the GP Final, in addition to Russian nationals and Europeans, I wonder if Piseev regrets how he handled the matter.

 

[mzheng]

I think that letter was more geared towards Plush doing a show at the same time he was supposed to compete in NHK.

Exactly. It was like a "chanlenge" statement skated in a show at the sametime when the GP event, which he suppose to be in, happens. If he stays low key and cureing his injury, there would be no reason for ISU's letter. Is the show sanctioned by ISU? or conditional sanctioned?

 

[soogar]

MZheng:
What happened with the show was that Plush had permission to skate in it from the RF but after the letter, the Fed pulled the sanction so if he had skated he would have lost eligibility with the Fed. For ISU purposes, eligibility is lost competing in a non-sanctioned competition, not exhibitions. That's why the USFS plays around with SOI. Like with Todd, he had to do Nationals to keep his USFS standing whereas now SArah can skate in SOI with permission from the USFS. The RF didn't care about Alexei when he skated with SOI as long as he was able to compete for Russia.

Mathman:
Plush is responsible for his own injuries. He should have sat this whole season out and gotten the medical treatment he needed. Instead he skated in shows, competed in COR. If he hadn't done those shows, he probably could have pulled out of the GP Final. However don't forget that he competed in the cheesefest just before the GP final and won a cool 50K. That's not a guy who's going to get a lot of sympathy from the ISU.