Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

[antmanb]

Really? Here is a piece from a thread I started back in July. It is the ladies' National scores, followed by the scores their next ISU competition ( whatever that happened to be ) Since Mirai had not yet had an ISU event since 2009 Nationals, I took her previous ISU result.

skater .............. Nats score ..... next ISU .... difference ( inflation )

2008

Mirai Nagasu ...... 190.41 ........ 162.89 ....... 27.52
Rachael Flatt ..... 188.73 ........ 172.19 ....... 16.54
Ashley Wagner ... 188.56 ........ 152.46 ....... 36.10
Caroline Zhang ... 173.16 ........ 171.84 ........ 1.32
Bebe Liang ......... 164.87 ........ 144.25 ....... 20.62

2009

Alissa Czisny ..... 178.06 ........ 159.81 ....... 18.25
Rachael Flatt ...... 173.78 ........ 162.83 ....... 10.95
Caroline Zhang ... 171.08 ........ 171.22 ....... -0.14
Ashley Wagner ... 165.33 ........ 153.57 ....... 11.76
Mirai Nagasu ...... 159.99 ..........124.22 ....... 35.77

So all the girls seem to get double digit inflation.

But it doesn't really mean anything unless they skated exactly the same way in the two competitions you are comparing.

Ant

 

[R.D.]

PB- that chart does not tell the whole story. In order to TRULY measure inflation, the girls would have had to skate the same or similarly at both comps. Many of the point differences seem way too large to be explained by National inflation only...

Even then, scores seem to vary even among international events, so there's no real way to ACCURATELY measure inflation...it can only be approximated/estimated...

 

[Mathman]

Still, Caroline Zhang has never gotten the slightest break at USFSA competitions.

 

[silverlake22]

Really? Here is a piece from a thread I started back in July. It is the ladies' National scores, followed by the scores their next ISU competition ( whatever that happened to be ) Since Mirai had not yet had an ISU event since 2009 Nationals, I took her previous ISU result.

skater .............. Nats score ..... next ISU .... difference ( inflation )

2008

Mirai Nagasu ...... 190.41 ........ 162.89 ....... 27.52
Rachael Flatt ..... 188.73 ........ 172.19 ....... 16.54
Ashley Wagner ... 188.56 ........ 152.46 ....... 36.10
Caroline Zhang ... 173.16 ........ 171.84 ........ 1.32
Bebe Liang ......... 164.87 ........ 144.25 ....... 20.62

2009

Alissa Czisny ..... 178.06 ........ 159.81 ....... 18.25
Rachael Flatt ...... 173.78 ........ 162.83 ....... 10.95
Caroline Zhang ... 171.08 ........ 171.22 ....... -0.14
Ashley Wagner ... 165.33 ........ 153.57 ....... 11.76
Mirai Nagasu ...... 159.99 ..........124.22 ....... 35.77

So all the girls seem to get double digit inflation.

I guess you were right. Poor Caroline though! Even the US judges seem to show her no mercy! You also have to take into account that some of these girls had better performances at nationals then there next event

 

[Sylvia]

Still, Caroline Zhang has never gotten the slightest break at USFSA competitions.

Then again, Zhang has usually not skated her best at Nationals these past couple of years due to nerves, etc.

 

[Mathman]

Then again, Zhang has usually not skated her best at Nationals these past couple of years due to nerves, etc.

Well, last year Caroline did a triple-triple in the short program, made no errors, and finished behind two skaters who did not do a triple-triple. In the LP she did 7 triples (with only the second jump of her 3F+3T hit with a downgrade.)

So I think we can say that although she was scored fairly, she didn't get any breaks.

She didn't get any breaks the year before, either, when the USFSA judges could have been forgiven had they been impressed (as I was ) with the breathtaking princess-ness of it all, or with the expectation that Caroline was in the express lane of the Miss Next highway.

Not saying that she was held down. Just that the judges resisted the temptation to hold her up.

 

[R.D.]

Well...I think in most cases the Nationals scoring is reasonable, except when the judges for some reason decide to "play favorites". I don't know how else to explain Czisny's high score last year or Meissner getting the benefit of the doubt on a call in 2007 when another skater got points off on a similar UR jump...Cohen getting INSANELY high points in 2006...etc.

 

[Mathman]

Well...I think in most cases the Nationals scoring is reasonable, except when the judges for some reason decide to "play favorites". I don't know how else to explain Czisny's high score last year or Meissner getting the benefit of the doubt on a call in 2007 when another skater got points off on a similar UR jump...Cohen getting INSANELY high points in 2006...etc.

I think in those cases, the judges figured it was a foregone conclusion about who was going to win, so they made sure to give the U.S. champion a rousing vote of confidence heading into Worlds or the Olympics.

The same thing can happen this year if, say, Rachael Flatt gets so far ahead in the short program that she is automatically going to win. Then the judges might pile the points on in the LP -- or at least not penalize her as much as they ordinarily would.

 

[silverlake22]

I think in those cases, the judges figured it was a foregone conclusion about who was going to win, so they made sure to give the U.S. champion a rousing vote of confidence heading into Worlds or the Olympics.

The same thing can happen this year if, say, Rachael Flatt gets so far ahead in the short program that she is automatically going to win. Then the judges might pile the points on in the LP -- or at least not penalize her as much as they ordinarily would.

Hm, maybe. I feel like the skaters that always get held up are those who falter technically though. You can't really boost TES if someone doesn't land jumps or clearly under-rotates them, but PCS is largely subjective and could be adjusted to give a skater an extra 10+ points. Like Alissa's LP last year that got 112 that would have got 100 nationally, all those points were in PCS. Where someone like Rachael normally hits her jumps, if they inflated her PCS score her score would just be huge.

 

[R.D.]

Well, I must say that it was hardly a "foregone conclusion" that Czisny was going to win 2009 Nats after the SP, knowing her tendency to implode in the free skate...and considering the performances that others gave...JMO.

ETA: and I don't think Meissner's 2007 victory was very convincing either. She had a lackluster FS and was very nearly beaten by...yup, Emily Hughes...if Em hadn't fallen, she'd have been the champ.

 

[krenseby]

Well, I must say that it was hardly a "foregone conclusion" that Czisny was going to win 2009 Nats after the SP, knowing her tendency to implode in the free skate...and considering the performances that others gave...JMO.

ETA: and I don't think Meissner's 2007 victory was very convincing either. She had a lackluster FS and was very nearly beaten by...yup, Emily Hughes...if Em hadn't fallen, she'd have been the champ.

The idea that Emily Hughes was a hair's breadth away from winning the national title is absolutely astounding.

I mean, I think that win would have a had huge impact on her reputation. She might have been seen as more of a contender on the world level.

 

[silverlake22]

The idea that Emily Hughes was a hair's breadth away from winning the national title is absolutely astounding.

I mean, I think that win would have a had huge impact on her reputation. She might have been seen as more of a contender on the world level.

Emily's planning a comeback too and hers might go better than Sasha's if Sash is too injured to do a flip or lutz...

 

[R.D.]

Well, Em's comeback is real and it's already happening. Big difference...

(whether it is successful or not, of course, is another story. We'll see at Nats...hopefully she can stay healthy.)

 

[luvsasha]

Well, Em's comeback is real and it's already happening. Big difference...

(whether it is successful or not, of course, is another story. We'll see at Nats...hopefully she can stay healthy.)

Puh. If Emily even shows up to skate at Nationals, she'll already be more successful than Sasha and her "comeback"

 

[R.D.]

Puh. If Emily even shows up to skate at Nationals, she'll already be more successful than Sasha and her "comeback"

Remember that Em also did regionals and SA. So she's already "more successful"

 

[silverlake22]

Remember that Em also did regionals and SA. So she's already "more successful"

Yeah. Some people think that USFSA just sent her to SA though because they wanted her at nationals and thought she wouldn't move on from sectionals if she went. I tend to think she'd have been able to make top 4 at Easterns but who knows...

 

[fairly4]

nationals plays favorites

sasha will get high pcs despite a bomb performance,10
czisny will get 2nd high pcs 8
flatt will get 3rd high pcs7
mirai and ashley will tie about same for next higheest pcs 6-7
zhang will get 4 to 5 in pcs
i am telling you right now zhang will finish out of the top ten--they got her right where they want her this year and w ill use the excuse of
international scores to keep her down-when in fact prevous years they
just used their own imaginiation and should have kept mirai, ashley, rachel and alissa scores down-because of international scores-they inflated them.
zhang will be kept low and out of top 10 she willo probable finished 15th

sasha, ashley, alexe, mira, rachel, alissa,emily and some junior skaters who got higher scores than her will finish higher.than zhang.

 

[silverlake22]

nationals plays favorites

sasha will get high pcs despite a bomb performance,10
czisny will get 2nd high pcs 8
flatt will get 3rd high pcs7
mirai and ashley will tie about same for next higheest pcs 6-7
zhang will get 4 to 5 in pcs
i am telling you right now zhang will finish out of the top ten--they got her right where they want her this year and w ill use the excuse of
international scores to keep her down-when in fact prevous years they
just used their own imaginiation and should have kept mirai, ashley, rachel and alissa scores down-because of international scores-they inflated them.
zhang will be kept low and out of top 10 she willo probable finished 15th

sasha, ashley, alexe, mira, rachel, alissa,emily and some junior skaters who got higher scores than her will finish higher.than zhang.

That would be sad. Caroline always seems to do well at nationals though, and it's more that the INTERNATIONAL judges hate her. I don't know if the USFSA cares that much about her mule kick or slowness, and in all honesty, she doesn't seem that slow when compared to Rachael and Alissa who are not that much faster. They were the top 3 from last year so I think we can say speed is not a big issue.

I hate the favoritism though, it just messes everything up.

 

[MKFSfan]

I could've sworn last year folks were complaining Caroline was treated better by international judges than national judges??? I will have to look up the sores. Caroline is not helping her case with the mule kick and being so slow. She can land a zillion jumps, but if the majority are UR, get an "e" or "!" call...and she has gotten calls on both the lutz and flip...no matter how gorgeous her spins are, she is going to suffer in the marks department. She is capable of big TES scores thanks to her consistency and non-jump[ elements, but her PCS marks are always super low due to being so slow, the mule kick, not showing much interpretation of the music and being SO SLOW. It's a shame, she's so freaking talented! But she's young. There is still time if she can find the right team to help her (of course this is assuming she has the right mind set to fix her issues and remains healthy).

 

[silverlake22]

I could've sworn last year folks were complaining Caroline was treated better by international judges than national judges??? I will have to look up the sores. Caroline is not helping her case with the mule kick and being so slow. She can land a zillion jumps, but if the majority are UR, get an "e" or "!" call...and she has gotten calls on both the lutz and flip...no matter how gorgeous her spins are, she is going to suffer in the marks department. She is capable of big TES scores thanks to her consistency and non-jump[ elements, but her PCS marks are always super low due to being so slow, the mule kick, not showing much interpretation of the music and being SO SLOW. It's a shame, she's so freaking talented! But she's young. There is still time if she can find the right team to help her (of course this is assuming she has the right mind set to fix her issues and remains healthy).

Yeah. I'm wondering if she's dealing with the same thing that Kimmie dealt with. Kimmie went from being world champ to falling 2-3 times in most of her FS and ending up with scores in the 130 range internationally (which is what Caroline got at SC). Caroline's body looks to have changed quite a bit since last year and it seems like when people's bodies change they either get better (like Yuna did) or worse.